• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 중심의 모형

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Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Optimization and Development of Prediction Model on the Removal Condition of Livestock Wastewater using a Response Surface Method in the Photo-Fenton Oxidation Process (Photo-Fenton 산화공정에서 반응표면분석법을 이용한 축산폐수의 COD 처리조건 최적화 및 예측식 수립)

  • Cho, Il-Hyoung;Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.642-652
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    • 2008
  • The aim of our research was to apply experimental design methodology in the optimization condition of Photo-Fenton oxidation of the residual livestock wastewater after the coagulation process. The reactions of Photo-Fenton oxidation were mathematically described as a function of parameters amount of Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$ and pH($x_3$) being modeled by the use of the Box-Behnken method, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface models and was alternative to central composite designs. The application of RSM using the Box-Behnken method yielded the following regression equation, which is an empirical relationship between the removal(%) of livestock wastewater and test variables in coded unit: Y = 79.3 + 15.61x$_1$ - 7.31x$_2$ - 4.26x$_3$ - 18x$_1{^2}$ - 10x$_2{^2}$ - 11.9x$_3{^2}$ + 2.49x$_1$x$_2$ - 4.4x$_2$x$_3$ - 1.65x$_1$x$_3$. The model predicted also agreed with the experimentally observed result(R$^2$ = 0.96) The results show that the response of treatment removal(%) in Photo-Fenton oxidation of livestock wastewater were significantly affected by the synergistic effect of linear terms(Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$, pH(x$_3$)), whereas Fe(II) $\times$ Fe(II)(x$_1{^2}$), $H_2O_2$ $\times$ $H_2O_2$(x$_2{^2}$) and pH $\times$ pH(x$_3{^2}$) on the quadratic terms were significantly affected by the antagonistic effect. $H_2O_2$ $\times$ pH(x$_2$x$_3$) had also a antagonistic effect in the cross-product term. The estimated ridge of the expected maximum response and optimal conditions for Y using canonical analysis were 84 $\pm$ 0.95% and (Fe(II)(X$_1$) = 0.0146 mM, $H_2O_2$(X$_2$) = 0.0867 mM and pH(X$_3$) = 4.704, respectively. The optimal ratio of Fe/H$_2O_2$ was also 0.17 at the pH 4.7.

Prediction Study on Major Movement Paths of Otters in the Ansim-wetland Using EN-Simulator (EN-Simulator를 활용한 안심습지 일원 수달의 주요 이동경로 예측 연구)

  • Shin, Gee-Hoon;Seo, Bo-Yong;Rho, Paikho;Kim, Ji-Young;Han, Sung-Yong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we performed a Random Walker analysis to predict the Major Movement Paths of otters. The scope of the research was a simulation analysis with a radius of 7.5 km set as the final range centered on the Ansim-wetland in Daegu City, and a field survey was used to verify the model. The number of virtual otters was set to 1,000, the number of moving steps was set to 1,000 steps per grid, and simulations were performed on a total of 841 grids. As a result of the analysis, an average of 147.6 objects arrived at the boundary point under the condition of an interval of 50 m. As a result of the simulation verification, 8 points (13.1%) were found in the area where the movement probability was very high, and 9 points (14.8%) were found in the area where the movement probability was high. On the other hand, in areas with low movement paths probabilities, there were 8 points (13.1%) in low areas and 4 points (6.6%) in very low areas. Simulation verification results In areas with high otter values, the actual otter format probability was particularly high. In addition, as a result of investigating the correlation with the otter appearance point according to the unit area of the evaluation star of the movement probability, it seems that 6.8 traces were found per unit area in the area where the movement probability is the highest. In areas where the probability of movement is low, analysis was performed at 0.1 points. On the side where otters use the major movement paths of the river area, the normal level was exceeded, and as a result, in the area, 23 (63.9%), many form traces were found, along the major movement paths of the simulation. It turned out that the actual otter inhabits. The EN-Simulator analysis can predict how spatial properties affect the likelihood of major movement paths selection, and the analytical values are used to utilize additional habitats within the major movement paths. It is judged that it can be used as basic data such as to grasp the danger area of road kill in advance and prevent it.

Prediction of Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater in the Northern Nonsan area Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중 회귀 분석을 이용한 논산 북부 지역 지하수의 질산성 질소 오염 예측)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Yeo, In-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2008
  • Nitrate concentrations were measured up to 49 mg/L (as $NO_3$-N) and 22% of the samples exceeded drinking water standard in shallow and bedrock groundwater of the northern Nonsan area. Nitrate concentrations showed a significant difference among land use groups. To predict nitrate concentration in groundwater, multiple regression analysis was carried out using hydrogeologic parameters of soil media, topography and land use which were categorized as several groups, well depth and altitude, and field parameters of temperature, pH, DO and EC. Hydrogeologic parameters were quantified as area proportions of each category within circular buffers centering at wells. Regression was performed to all the combination of variables and the most relevant model was selected based on adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. $R^2$). Regression using hydrogelogic parameters with varying buffer radii show highest Adj. $R^2$ at 50m and 300m for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively. Shallow groundwater has higher Adj. $R^2$ than bedrock groundwater indicating higher susceptibility to hydrogeologic properties of surface environment near the well. Land use and soil media was major explanatory variables for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively and residential area was a major variable in both shallow and bedrock groundwater. Regression involving hydrogeologic parameters and field parameters showed that EC, paddy and pH were major variables in shallow groundwater whereas DO, EC and natural area were in bedrock groundwater. Field parameters have much higher explanatory power over the hydrogeologic parameters suggesting field parameters which are routinely measured can provide important information on each well in assessment of nitrate contamination. The most relevant buffer radii can be applied to estimation of travel time of contaminants in surface environment to wells.

A Study on Developing Sensibility Model for Visual Display (시각 디스플레이에서의 감성 모형 개발 -움직임과 색을 중심으로-)

  • 임은영;조경자;한광희
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2004
  • The structure of sensibility from motion was developed for the purpose of understanding relationship between sensibilities and physical factors to apply it to dynamic visual display. Seventy adjectives were collected by assessing adequacy to express sensibilities from motion and reporting sensibilities recalled from dynamic displays with achromatic color. Various motion displays with a moving single dot were rated according to the degree of sensibility corresponding to each adjective, on the basis of the Semantic Differential (SD) method. The results of assessment were analyzed by means of the factor analysis to reduce 70 words into 19 fundamental sensibilities from motion. The Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) technique constructed the sensibility space in motion, in which 19 sensibilities were scattered with two dimensions, active-passive and bright-dark Motion types systemically varied in kinematic factors were placed on the two-dimensional space of motion sensibility, in order to analyze important variables affecting sensibility from motion. Patterns of placement indicate that speed and both of cycle and amplitude in trajectories tend to partially determine sensibility. Although color and motion affected sensibility according to the in dimensions, it seemed that combination of motion and color made each have dominant effect individually in a certain sensibility dimension, motion to active-passive and color to bright-dark.

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Implementation Strategy of Global Framework for Climate Service through Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology for Agriculture and Food Security Sector (선도적 농림기상 국제협력을 통한 농업과 식량안보분야 전지구기후 서비스체계 구축 전략)

  • Lee, Byong-Lyol;Rossi, Federica;Motha, Raymond;Stefanski, Robert
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2013
  • The Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) will guide the development of climate services that link science-based climate information and predictions with climate-risk management and adaptation to climate change. GFCS structure is made up of 5 pillars; Observations/Monitoring (OBS), Research/ Modeling/ Prediction (RES), Climate Services Information System (CSIS) and User Interface Platform (UIP) which are all supplemented with Capacity Development (CD). Corresponding to each GFCS pillar, the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) has been proposing "Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology" (GIAM) in order to facilitate GFCS implementation scheme from the perspective of AgroMeteorology - Global AgroMeteorological Outlook System (GAMOS) for OBS, Global AgroMeteorological Pilot Projects (GAMPP) for RES, Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS) for UIP/RES, WAMIS next phase for CSIS/UIP, and Global Centers of Research and Excellence in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) for CD, through which next generation experts will be brought up as virtuous cycle for human resource procurements. The World AgroMeteorological Information Service (WAMIS) is a dedicated web server in which agrometeorological bulletins and advisories from members are placed. CAgM is about to extend its service into a Grid portal to share computer resources, information and human resources with user communities as a part of GFCS. To facilitate ICT resources sharing, a specialized or dedicated Data Center or Production Center (DCPC) of WMO Information System for WAMIS is under implementation by Korea Meteorological Administration. CAgM will provide land surface information to support LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System) of next generation Earth System as an information provider. The International Society for Agricultural Meteorology (INSAM) is an Internet market place for agrometeorologists. In an effort to strengthen INSAM as UIP for research community in AgroMeteorology, it was proposed by CAgM to establish Global Federation of AgroMeteorological Society (GFAMS). CAgM will try to encourage the next generation agrometeorological experts through Global Center of Excellence in Research and Education in AgroMeteorology (GCREAM) including graduate programmes under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub of Global Initiatives in AgroMeteorology (GIAM of CAgM). It would be coordinated under the framework of GENRI as a governing hub for all global initiatives such as GFAMS, GAMPP, GAPON including WAMIS II, primarily targeting on GFCS implementations.

The Analyses of Geographers지 Roles and Demands in Korean GIS Industries (GIS 산업에 있어서 지리학의 역할 및 수요에 대한 분석)

  • Chang Eun-mi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.643-664
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to review what geographers have contributed to GIS industries and national needs. To-be-geographers and geographers are expected to meet the gap between what we have teamed in school and what we have to do after graduation. The characteristics of GIS industry in the 1990 are summarized with approximate evaluation of the contribution of geographers in each stage. Author introduced the requirement for the licenses of geomatics and geospatial engineering experts and the other licenses, which are important to get a job in GIS industry from 2003 to 2004. A set of questionnaire on the user's requirements was given to GIS people in private companies and public GIS research centers and analyzed. Author found that they put an emphasis on hands-on experiences and programming skills. no advantages or geography such as capability or integration and inter-disciplinary collaboration were not appreciated. The prospects for the GIS tend to be positive but the reflectance of the prospect was not accompanied by at the same degree of preference for geography. Most government strategies for the next ten years' GIS focus on new-growth leading industries. SWOT(strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) analysis of geography for GIS industry will give some directions such as telematics, regional marketing strategies with web-based GIS technology, location based service. That means intra-disciplinary study in geography will evoke the potentiality of GIS, compared with interdisciplinary studies.

Development of a Real-Time Mobile GIS using the HBR-Tree (HBR-Tree를 이용한 실시간 모바일 GIS의 개발)

  • Lee, Ki-Yamg;Yun, Jae-Kwan;Han, Ki-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.6 no.1 s.11
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2004
  • Recently, as the growth of the wireless Internet, PDA and HPC, the focus of research and development related with GIS(Geographic Information System) has been changed to the Real-Time Mobile GIS to service LBS. To offer LBS efficiently, there must be the Real-Time GIS platform that can deal with dynamic status of moving objects and a location index which can deal with the characteristics of location data. Location data can use the same data type(e.g., point) of GIS, but the management of location data is very different. Therefore, in this paper, we studied the Real-Time Mobile GIS using the HBR-tree to manage mass of location data efficiently. The Real-Time Mobile GIS which is developed in this paper consists of the HBR-tree and the Real-Time GIS Platform HBR-tree. we proposed in this paper, is a combined index type of the R-tree and the spatial hash Although location data are updated frequently, update operations are done within the same hash table in the HBR-tree, so it costs less than other tree-based indexes Since the HBR-tree uses the same search mechanism of the R-tree, it is possible to search location data quickly. The Real-Time GIS platform consists of a Real-Time GIS engine that is extended from a main memory database system. a middleware which can transfer spatial, aspatial data to clients and receive location data from clients, and a mobile client which operates on the mobile devices. Especially, this paper described the performance evaluation conducted with practical tests if the HBR-tree and the Real-Time GIS engine respectively.

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Comparisons between the Two Dose Profiles Extracted from Leksell GammaPlan and Calculated by Variable Ellipsoid Modeling Technique (렉셀 감마플랜(LGP)에서 추출된 선량 분포와 가변 타원체 모형화기술(VEMT)에 의해 계산된 선량 분포 사이의 비교)

  • Hur, Beong Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2017
  • A high degree of precision and accuracy in Gamma Knife Radiosurgery(GKRS) is a fundamental requirement for therapeutical success. Elaborate radiation delivery and dose gradients with the steep fall-off of radiation are clinically applied thus necessitating a dedicated Quality Assurance(QA) program in order to guarantee dosimetric and geometric accuracy and reduce all the risk factors that can occur in GKRS. In this study, as a part of QA we verified the accuracy of single-shot dose profiles used in the algorithm of Gamma Knife Perfexion(PFX) treatment planning system employing Variable Ellipsoid Modeling Technique(VEMT). We evaluated the dose distributions of single-shots in a spherical ABC phantom with diameter 160 mm on Gamma Knife PFX. The single-shots were directed to the center of ABC phantom. Collimating configurations of 4, 8, and 16 mm sizes along x, y, and z axes were studied. Gamma Knife PFX treatment planning system being used in GKRS is called Leksell GammaPlan(LGP) ver 10.1.1. From the verification like this, the accuracy of GKRS will be doubled. Then the clinical application must be finally performed based on precision and accuracy of GKRS. Specifically the width at the 50% isodose level, that is, Full-Width-of-Half-Maximum(FWHM) was verified under such conditions that a patient's head is simulated as a sphere with diameter 160mm. All the data about dose profiles along x, y, and z axes predicted through VEMT were excellently consistent with dose profiles from LGP within specifications(${\leq}1mm$ at 50% isodose level) except for a little difference of FWHM and PENUMBRA(isodose level: 20%~80%) along z axis for 4 mm and 8mm collimating configurations. The maximum discrepancy of FWHM was less than 2.3% at all collimating configurations. The maximum discrepancy of PENUMBRA was given for the 8 mm collimator along z axis. The difference of FWHM and PENUMBRA in the dose distributions obtained with VEMT and LGP is too small to give the clinical significance in GKRS. The results of this study are considered as a reference for medical physicists involved in GKRS in the whole world. Therefore we can work to confirm the validity of dose distributions for all collimating configurations determined through the regular preventative maintenance program using the independent verification method VEMT for the results of LGP and clinically assure the perfect treatment for patients of GKRS. Thus the use of VEMT is expected that it will be a part of QA that can verify and operate the system safely.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.