• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측비율

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Collision Cause-Providing Ratio Prediction Model Using Natural Language Processing Analytics (자연어 처리 기법을 활용한 충돌사고 원인 제공 비율 예측 모델 개발)

  • Ik-Hyun Youn;Hyeinn Park;Chang-Hee, Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 2024
  • As the modern maritime industry rapidly progresses through technological advancements, data processing technology is emphasized as a key driver of this development. Natural language processing is a technology that enables machines to understand and process human language. Through this methodology, we aim to develop a model that predicts the proportions of outcomes when entering new written judgments by analyzing the rulings of the Marine Safety Tribunal and learning the cause-providing ratios of previously adjudicated ship collisions. The model calculated the cause-providing ratios of the accident using the navigation applied at the time of the accident and the weight of key keywords that affect the cause-providing ratios. Through this, the accuracy of the developed model could be analyzed, the practical applicability of the model could be reviewed, and it could be used to prevent the recurrence of collisions and resolve disputes between parties involved in marine accidents.

The Evaluation on the Prediction Ratio of Landslide Hazard Area based on Geospatial Information (공간정보 기반 산사태 발생지역 예측비율 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Lee, Ho-Jun;Go, Sin-Young;Cho, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.113-124
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    • 2014
  • Recently landslide occurs frequently by heavy rainfall, therefore there area many studies to analyze the vulnerable district of landslide and forecast the occurrence of landslide. This study analyzed soil characteristics in the occurrence district of landslide and the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in well draining soil as the result of frequency ratio according to the characteristics of drainage. Also as the result of frequency ratio of slope derived from DEM data, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in slope range of $20{\sim}40^{\circ}$. And Also as the result of frequency ratio of aspect by geospatial analysis, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in north aspect. Also, it is possible to evaluate the vulnerability of landslide by overlapping frequency ratio of the drainage of soil, slope and aspect. And future prediction ratio of landslide occurrence can be evaluated by performing the analysis and validation process respectively on the subject of the occurrence district of landslide.

A Study of Traffic Accident Analysis Model on Highway in Accordance with the Accident Rate of Trucks (화물차사고 비율에 따른 고속도로 교통사고 분석모형에 대한 연구)

  • Yang, Sung-Ryong;Yoon, Byoung-jo;Ko, Eun-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.570-576
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    • 2017
  • Trucks take up more portions than cars on highways. Due to this, road use relatively diminish and it serves locally as a threatening factor to nearby drivers. Baggage car accident has distinct characteristics so that it needs the application of different analysis opposed to ordinary accidents. Accident prediction model, one of accident analyses, is used to predict the numbers of accident in certain parts, establish traffic plans as well as accident prevention methods, and diagnose the danger of roads. Thus, this study aims to apply the accident rate of baggage car on highways and calculate the correction factor to be put in the accident prediction models. Accident data based on highway was collected and traffic amounts and accident documents between 2014 and 2016 were utilized. The author developed an accident prediction model based on numbers of annual accidents and set mean annual and daily traffic amounts. This study intends to identify the practical accident prediction model on highway and present an appropriate solution by comparing the prediction model in accords with the accident rate between baggage cars.

Fuel and Power in the 21th Century (21세기의 연료와 동력전망)

  • 편집실
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.45-47
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    • 1972
  • 최근까지의 관습적인 예측으로보면 인간의 동력사용은 앞으로 수십년에 걸쳐 현재와 같은 비율로 지수함수적으로 증가할 것이며 이로 인해 당연히 전세계의 한정된 화석연료자원이 급속히 고갈되지 않을까 하는 우려가 제기된다. 그러므로 인간의 실수요에 대해 타당한 예측을 하는것이 우선적 문제인데, 이것은 세계인구수와 1년 1인당의 예상수요의 산출로 분류할 수 있다. 인구수에 관해서는 다음과 같은 낙관적인 견해가 있다. 즉 인구는 2,000년까지 현재의 비율(년간 2%)로 계속 증가하여 현 3.5*$10^{9}$에서 6.6*$10^{9}$ 이 될 것이나, 21세기중에는 일정한 수에 머무를 것이다. 동력의 1인당 실수요 평가에 있어서는 여러가지 요인을 고려해야 한다.

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The Study on the Risk Predict Method and Government Funds Supporting for Small and Medium Enterprises (로짓분석을 통한 중소기업 정책자금 지원의 위험예측력에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

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A Study on the Prediction of Failure Rate of Airforce OO Guided Missile Based on Field Failure Data (야전운용제원에 기반한 공군 OO유도탄 고장률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheonkyu;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.428-434
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    • 2020
  • The one-shot weapon system is destroyed after only one mission. So, the system requires high reliability. Guided missiles are one-shot weapon systems that have to be analyzed by storage reliability since they spend most of their life in storage. The analysis results depend on the model and the ratio of correct censored data. This study was conducted to propose a method to more accurately predict the future failure rate of Air force guided missiles. In the proposed method, the failure rate is predicted by both MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) models and the model with a smaller error from the real failure rate is selected. Next, with the selected model, the ratio of correct censored data is selected to minimize the error between the predicted failure rate and the real failure rate. Based on real field data, the comparative result is determined and the result shows that the proposed sampling rate can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

Bankfiltration rate change by stream level and rainfall river bankfiltration site (강변여과 취수 지역에서의 하천수위 및 강우량 변화에 대한 하천유입수 비율 변화)

  • 원이정;김형수;구민호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.337-340
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    • 2004
  • 강변여과 취수방법을 이용한 광역상수도 시설이 고려되었던 경북 고령군 다산면 지역에 대해 하천수위 및 강우량 변화에 대한 하천유입수 비율 변화를 계산하였다. 1년을 주기로 변화하는 하천수위 및 강우량에 대해 동적순환 초기조건(dynamic cyclic initial conditions)을 고려하여, 10년간을 모사하여 마지막 1년에 대한 지하수위 및 하천유입수 비율변화를 살펴보았다. 하천수 유입비율은 함양 인자인 강우량에도 민감한 반응을 보이며, 또한 경계조건이되는 하천수위 변동에도 크게 변화한다. 그러나, 함양이 증가하면 취수정으로의 지하수 유입비율이 커지나 이와함께 하천수위도 증가하므로 이는 곧 하천유입수 비율의 증가를 유도하는 상반된 결과를 가져온다. 강우량이 많은 경우 일정한 지연시간 이후 하천수위가 최대가 되며, 이로 인한 하천유입수 비율이 수일사이에 크게는 30% 이상의 변화를 보인다. 강변여과 취수지역에서 최적의 수질 및 수량 운영을 위해 실제 강우량과 하천수위변화를 이용한 유입수비율변화 예측이 바람직하다.

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TDX-1(A)* 시스팀신뢰도분석-예측치와 현장운용 데이터를 중심으로

  • Sin, Seong-Mun;Jeong, Cheol-O;Lee, Dae-Gi
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.165-169
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    • 1988
  • 본고에서는 TDX-1(A) 시스팀에서 적용된 블럭의 신뢰도 예측치와 현장운용 데이터에서 신뢰도를 비교 검토함으로써 TDX-1(A) 시스팀의 신뢰도 예측 결과를 검증하고, 현재 TDX시스팀에서 적용하고 있는 부품신뢰도 예측방법을 보완할 수 있는 의견을 제시하였다. 또한 시스팀의 고장요인을 H/W, S/W 및 Procedure Error로 분류하고 이들의 구성 비율을 예측치와 현장데이터로 비교하여 TDX 시스팀의 신뢰도를 확보하고 향상시키는데 도움이 되도록 하였다.

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Cost Prediction Model using Qualitative Variables focused on Planning Phase for Public Multi-Housing Projects (정성변수를 고려한 공공아파트 기획단계 공사비 예측모델)

  • Ji, Soung-Min;Hyun, Chang-Taek;Moon, Hyun-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2012
  • In planning phase of Public Multi-Housing Projects, it is required to develop the methodology and criteria for fair cost prediction with influencing power from planning phase to occupancy phase. Many studies still have focused on the prediction of cost by multiple regression. However, there is no logical explanation about the influence of nonmetric variables for the prediction of cost in planning phase. Accordingly, this research pursues a cost prediction model including nonmetric variables for use in planning phase. There are 3 steps of this research : 1) Finding the factors influencing construction cost and assigning variables for a multiple regression. 2) Conducting a dummy regression analysis with nonmetric variables and model validation by comparing actual cost data. 3) Developing the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost by using cost predection model. The results could establish cost prediction process including the influence of nonmetric variables and the ratio of RC structure cost to wall structure cost.

Application of Prediction Rate Curves to Estimation of Prediction Probability in GIS-based Mineral Potential Mapping (GIS 기반 광물자원 분포도 작성에서 예측 확률 추정을 위한 예측비율곡선의 응용)

  • Park, No-Wook;Chi, Kwang-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 2007
  • A mineral potential map showing the distributions of potential areas for exploration of undiscovered mineral deposits is a kind of predictive thematic maps. For any predictive thematic maps to show reasonably significant prediction results, validation information on prediction capability should be provided in addition to spatial locations of high potential areas. The objective of this paper is to apply prediction rate curves to the estimation of prediction probability of future discovery. A case study for Au-Ag mineral potential mapping using geochemical data sets is carried out to illustrate procedures for estimating prediction probability and for an interpretation. Through the case study, quantitative information including prediction rates and probability obtained by prediction rate curves was found to be very important for the interpretation of prediction results. It is expected that such quantitative validation information would be effectively used as basic information for cost analysis of exploration and environmental impact assessment.