• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측계산식

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Models of Forecasting the Generation Peak Time of Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) adults Based on Degree-days on Jeju Island, Korea (제주에서 적산온도를 이용한 볼록총채벌레 세대별 발생최성기 예측모형)

  • Hwang, Rok Yeon;Hyun, Jae wook;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.415-425
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    • 2013
  • The yellow tea thrips, Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), has been regarded as a minor pest on citrus on Jeju Island. However, the damage of yellow tea thrips has gradually increased since 2007. This study was conducted to develop a forecasting model for generation peak time of S. dorsalis by using degree-days. Simple linear regression analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the generation number (x, dependent variable) and degree-days (y, independent variable). As a result, two regression models were established: citrus-based model (y = 310.9x + 69.0, $r^2$=0.99) and green tea-based model (y = 285.7x + 84.1, $r^2$=0.99). The models was fitted by independent data sets obtained from 2013 and evaluated using the technique of RSS (residual sum of square) and ${\chi}^2$-test. The green tea based-model showed a good fitting ability. The discrepancy between model outputs and actual data, and the practical application of models were discussed.

Analysis of Optimal Index for Heat Morbidity (온열질환자 예측을 위한 최적의 지표 분석)

  • Sanghyuck Kim;Minju Song;Seokhwan Yun;Dongkun Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to select and predict optimal heatwave indices for describing and predicting heat-related illnesses. Regression analysis was conducted using Heat-related illness surveillance system data for a number of heat-related illnesses and meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration's Automatic Weather Station (AWS) for the period from 2021 to 2023. Daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily average Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), and daily maximum WBGT values were calculated and analyzed. The results indicated that among the four indicators, the daily maximum WBGT showed the highest suitability with an R2 value of 0.81 and RMSE of 0.98, with a threshold of 29.94 Celsius. During the entire analysis period, there were a total of 91 days exceeding this threshold, resulting in 339 cases of heat-related illnesses. Predictions of heat-related illness cases from 2021 to 2023 using the regression equation for daily maximum WBGT showed an accuracy with less than 10 cases of error annually, demonstrating a high level of precision. Through continuous research and refinement of data and analysis methods, it is anticipated that this approach could contribute to predicting and mitigating the impact of heatwaves.

Application of Non-hydrostatic Free Surface Model for Three-Dimensional Viscous Flows (비정수압 자유수면 모형의 3차원 점성 흐름에의 적용)

  • Choi, Doo-Yong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2012
  • A horizontally curvilinear non-hydrostatic free surface model that was applicable to three-dimensional viscous flows was developed. The proposed model employed a top-layer equation to close kinematic free-surface boundary condition, and an isotropic k-${\varepsilon}$ model to close turbulence viscosity in the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equation. The model solved the governing equations with a fractional step method, which solved intermediate velocities in the advection-diffusion step, and corrects these provisional velocities by accounting for source terms including pressure gradient and gravity acceleration. Numerical applications were implemented to the wind-driven currents in a two-dimensional closed basin, the flow in a steep-sided trench, and the flow in a strongly-curved channel accounting for secondary current by the centrifugal force. Through the numerical simulations, the model showed its capability that were in good agreement with experimental data with respect to free surface elevation, velocity, and turbulence characteristics.

Numerical Prediction of Beach Topographical Evolution (해빈지형변형(海濱地形變形)의 수식예측모형(數式豫測模型))

  • Lee, Jong Kyu;Lee, Jong In
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 1991
  • The littoral drift in the nearshore zone occurs mainly due to wave action and nearshore currents. Beach topotraphical evolution model presented in this study shows the possibility which can be applied to the prediction of beach deformation over short time interval, associated with the construction of coastal structures. The 3-dimensional beach evolution model, based on Watanabe's equation and Deguchi's flux model, is developed and consists of three submodels of wave transformation, rip-currents, and beach deformation. This model is applied to the several cases with different conditions and compared with the results of Watanabe's numerical model. In addition, the effects of parameters involved are discussed.

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Modeling of Tension Stiffening Effect Based on Nonlinear Bond Characteristics in Structural Concrete Members (비선형 부착 특성에 기반한 철근콘크리트 부재의 인장증강효과 모델)

  • Lee, Gi-Yeol;Ha, Tae-Gwan;Kim, Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.745-754
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a unified modeling technique for tension stiffening effect in structural concrete members. The model is mathematically derived from the bond stress-slip relationships which account for splitting crack. The relationships in CEB-FIP Model Code 1990 and Eurocode 2 are employed together with the assumptions of a linear slip distribution along the interface and the uniform condition of concrete tensile contribution for the mid section of cracked member at the stabilized cracking stage. With these assumptions, a model of tension stiffening effect is proposed by accounting for the force equilibrium and strain compatibility condition associated to the steel strain and concrete contribution by bond stress. The model is applied to the test results available in literatures, and the predicted values are shown to be in good agreement with the experimentally measured behavior.

Global Warming Effects on the Cambial Growth of Larix leptolepis in Central Korea : Predictions from Simulation Modeling (지구온난화에 따른 중부 한국 낙엽송의 형성층 생장 예측: 시뮬레이션 모델링)

  • Won-Kyu Park;Eugene Vaganov;Maria Arbatskaya;Jeong-Wook Seo;Je-Su Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2000
  • A simulation model was used to examine the effects of climate variation on the tree-ring structure of Larix leptolepis trees growing at a plantation plot in Worak National Park in central Korea. The model uses mathematical equations to simulate processes affecting cell(tracheid) size variations for individual rings using daily precipitation and temperature measurements. Limiting conditions are estimated from temperature, day length and a calculated water balance. The results indicate that the seasonal growth is mostly limited by the soil moisture content and precipitation income during April and May. The April-May temperature also inversely influences the growth by increasing water losses from soil. The global climate-change scenario which includes regional warming(increasing temperature in spring-summer periods) appears to decrease the duration of optimal growths. Consequently, the model estimated that Larix leptolepis would lose the total production of xylem by 25%.

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Estimation of Thermodynamic Properties of Refrigerant Mixtures Using a Modified Carnaha-Starling Equation of State (수정된 Carnahan-Starling 상태방정식을 이용한 혼합냉매의 물성계산)

  • 김민수;김동섭;노승탁
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.2189-2205
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    • 1991
  • Thermodynamic properties of binary nonazeotropic refrigerant mixtures are estimated by using a modified Carnhan-Starling equation of state. In this study, pure component refrigerants such as R14, R23, R13, R13 B1, R22, R12, R134a, R152a, R142b, RC318, R114, R11, R123 and R113 are chosen and the thermodynamic properties of enthalpy and entropy are calculated in terms of relevant variables. The modified Carnahan-Starling equation of state is compared with the carnahan-Staring-De Santis equation of sate. Results show that the relative errors become slightly smaller with the equation of state proposed in this study. Correlations are obtained for the mixtures of which the vapor liquid equilibruim data are available to us in the literature. Those mixtures are R14/R23, R23/R12, R13/R12, R13/R11, R13B1/R22, R13B1/RC318, R12/RC138, R12/R114 and R12/R11. The binary interaction coefficients are found under the condition of minimizing the pressure deviations at the vapor liquid equiblibrium state and the estimation of the vapor liquid equilibrium for the refrigerant mixtures is done. Pressure-enthalpy and temperature-entropy diagrams are plotted for the refrigerant mixtures of specific composition.

A Study on the Blade Load Measurement of Partial-admission Turbine Cascade (충동형 터빈 캐스케이드의 깃 하중 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Dong-Hwa;Jang, Jin-Man;Lee, Eun-Seok;Kim, Jin-Han;Choi, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2007
  • An impulse turbine, which is a main component of a liquid rocket engine, needs to be a small size with light weight and generate large power. Since the impulse turbine is being operated under complicated supersonic conditions, flow analysis and performance prediction largely depend on CFD technique. In order to increase the reliability of the prediction code, however, it often requires an experimental data to compare. In this research a rotating turbine rotor with multiple blades is simulated with a two-dimensional stationary cascade to check the effect of major flow parameters. Mach number is measured at nozzle exit by using a pitot tube and the blade thrust was also measured with a load cell. The measured thrust coefficient and the power are compared well with the designed conditions, which proves the design procedures are properly taken.

An Analytical Study on the Nonlinear Behavior of Double Angle Connections Subjected to Shear (전단력을 받는 더블 앵글 접합부의 비선형 거동에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Soo-Kueon;Hong, Kap-Pyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.12 no.1 s.44
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2000
  • The behavior of double angle connections is analyzed by 3D finite element method using ABAQUS(ver 5.8). Moment-rotation curves for the connections are generated, as well as stress distribution for angle and bolt. Double angle connections have various angle thickness, gage distance and number of bolt. Parameters, such as initial stiffness, plastic tiffness, reference load and curve shape parameter were obtained by regression method using Richard's formula. These parameter lead to predict nonlinear behavior of double angle connection. Design curves giving the parameters of the moment-rotation curves are generated. These parameters are primarily a function of the angle thickness, gage distance and the number of bolts in the connection. Using these parameters, connection moment and its ratio to the full plastic moment capacity Mp of the beam are calculated.

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The prediction for drying shrinkage of self-consolidating concrete using lightweight aggregate (경량골재를 사용한 자기충전 콘크리트의 건조수축률 예측)

  • Kim, Yong-Jic;Choi, Yun-Wang;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.341-344
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    • 2008
  • Lightweight concrete is known for its advantage of reducing the self-weight of the structures, reducing the areas of sectional members as well as making the construction convenient. Thus the construction cost can be saved when applied to structures such as long-span bridge and high rise building. However, the lightweight concrete requires specific mix design method that is quite different from the typical concrete, since using the typical mix method would give rise the material segregation as well as lower the strength by the reduced weight of the aggregate. In order to avoid such problems, it is recommended to apply the mix design method of self-consolidating concrete for the lightweight concrete. Therefore experimental tests were performed as such mechanical properties(compressive strength, dry density and structural efficiency) of concrete and dry shrinkage according to ACI committee 209.

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