Korean journal of applied entomology (한국응용곤충학회지)

Korean Society of Applied Entomology (한국응용곤충학회)
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Models of Forecasting the Generation Peak Time of Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) adults Based on Degree-days on Jeju Island, Korea

제주에서 적산온도를 이용한 볼록총채벌레 세대별 발생최성기 예측모형

  • Hwang, Rok Yeon (Citrus Research Station, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Hyun, Jae wook (Citrus Research Station, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Kim, Dong-Soon (Faculty of Bioscience and Industry, College of Applied Life Science, SARI, Jeju Nat'l. Univ.)
  • 황록연 (국립원예특작과학원 감귤시험장) ;
  • 현재욱 (국립원예특작과학원 감귤시험장) ;
  • 김동순 (제주대학교 생명자원과학대학(SARI) 식물자원환경전공)
  • Received : 2013.10.29
  • Accepted : 2013.11.13
  • Published : 2013.12.01
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Abstract

The yellow tea thrips, Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), has been regarded as a minor pest on citrus on Jeju Island. However, the damage of yellow tea thrips has gradually increased since 2007. This study was conducted to develop a forecasting model for generation peak time of S. dorsalis by using degree-days. Simple linear regression analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the generation number (x, dependent variable) and degree-days (y, independent variable). As a result, two regression models were established: citrus-based model (y = 310.9x + 69.0, $r^2$=0.99) and green tea-based model (y = 285.7x + 84.1, $r^2$=0.99). The models was fitted by independent data sets obtained from 2013 and evaluated using the technique of RSS (residual sum of square) and ${\chi}^2$-test. The green tea based-model showed a good fitting ability. The discrepancy between model outputs and actual data, and the practical application of models were discussed.

볼록총채벌레는 제주도 감귤에서 경미한 피해만 보고되다가 2007년부터 다발생하여 그 피해가 갈수록 심각해지고 있다. 본 연구는 적산온도를 이용하여 볼록총채벌레 각 발생세대의 발생최성기를 예측할 수 있는 모형을 개발하고자 수행하였다. 볼록총채벌레 성충 발생세대수를 독립변수(x)로 취급하고 세대별 발생최성기의 적산온도를 종속변수(y)로 취급하여 직선 회귀식을 추정하였다. 감귤원에서 유살된 자료와 녹차 또는 키위과원에서 얻은 자료를 기반으로 각각 감귤기반모형(y = 310.9x + 69.0, $r^2$=0.99) 녹차기반모형(y = 285.7x + 84.1, $r^2$=0.99)을 개발하였다. 각 모형의 예측값과 독립된 포장 실측자료와의 잔차자승합을 토대로 모형의 적합성을 평가하였으며, 녹차기반모형의 적합력이 좋았다. 본 예측모형을 통한 계산값과 실측치의 불일치에 대한 원인과 모형의 포장 활용도에 대하여 고찰하였다.

Keywords

References

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Cited by

  1. Temperature-dependent fecundity of overwinteredScirtothrips dorsalis(Thysanoptera: Thripidae) and its oviposition model with field validation vol.71, pp.10, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.3949
  2. Occurrence Pattern and Damage of Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera:Thripidae) in Primary Host and Citrus Orchards on Jeju Island 2016, https://doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2016.11.0.072