• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예상위험요인

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Empirical Analysis on the Stress Test Using Credit Migration Matrix (신용등급 전이행렬을 활용한 위기상황분석에 관한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.253-268
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we estimate systematic risk from credit migration (or transition) matrices under "Asymptotic Single Risk Factor" model. We analyzed transition matrices issued by KR(Korea Ratings) and concluded that systematic risk implied on credit migration somewhat coincide with the real economic cycle. Especially, we found that systematic risk implied on credit migration is better than that implied on the default rate. We also emphasize how to conduct a stress test using systematic risk extracted from transition migration. We argue that the proposed method in this paper is better than the usual method that is only considered for the conditional probability of default(PD). We found that the expected loss critically increased when we explicitly consider the change of credit quality in a given portfolio, compared to the method considering only PD.

A Study on the Risk Factors of Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders in Librarians of University Libraries (대학도서관 사서들의 작업관련 근골격계 질환 위험요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hyen
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.243-262
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    • 2011
  • The aim of this study was to investigate musculo-skeletal symtoms and working conditions of university library's librarians to search for the risk factors related to musculo-skeletal symptoms. The study subjects were 266 librarians who were working at 20 university libraries. A self-recording questionnaire was used to investigate the general characteristics, working conditions, job intensity, job satisfaction and stress, education of musculoskeletal disorders and nature of musculoskeletal symptom. Statistical analysis was done by using t-test and multiple regression analysis. The complaint proportion of self-reported positive musculoskeletal symptoms was 62.5% and that of severe musculoskeletal symptoms was 26.1%. Multiple regression analysis showed that low satisfaction of working conditions, high job intensity, irregular mealtime, job stress were closely related to the positive rate of musculoskeletal symptoms. Therefore, it will be necessary to make efforts to reduce the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders improving working conditions and mitigating the job intensity.

The Factors Related to Substance Use among Korean Adolescents: Focusing on Sexual Experiences and Risky Sexual Behaviors (한국 청소년의 약물사용 관련요인: 성경험과 위험 성행동을 중심으로)

  • Park, Min Hee;Jeon, Hae Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.3333-3343
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors related to substance use focusing on the sexual experiences and risky sexual behaviors among Korean adolescents. This study conducted with a secondary data analysis using the Seventh Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2011 in South Korea. The study participants selected 75,643 Korean adolescents who were recruited anonymously through national web-based survey. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, rao-Scott ${\chi}^2$, and logistic regressions considering complex samples. Results indicated that substance use was significantly associated with sexual experiences such as sexual intercourse with the opposite sex (adjusted OR=5.691; 95% CI=4.223-7.670), sexual intercourse with the same sex (adjusted OR=21.180; 95% CI=14.704-30.507) and risky sexual behaviors such as sexual assaults (adjusted OR=9.936; 95% CI=7.217-13.680), date rape (adjusted OR=16.979; 95% CI=11.648-24.751), sexual intercourse after drinking (adjusted OR=6.564; 95% CI=3.986-10.810), unexpected pregnancies (adjusted OR=18.628; 95% CI=8.476-40.936), and sexually transmitted diseases (adjusted OR=21.872; 95% CI=13.920-34.367) in Korean adolescents. Findings of this study show that adolescents who use substances are more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors. Therefore, intervention program should be designed to consider both substance use and sexual problems and to include the effective approaches at the family and school level.

Study on the Risk Management of the CERs Investment - Regarding Registration Risks and Price Change Risk in Investing Primary CERs - (탄소배출권 투자와 위험관리방안 연구 - 일차배출권(Primary CER) 투자 시 등록위험 및 가격변동 위험을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Chang Seok;Kim, Yun Soung;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.115-131
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    • 2011
  • Out of all the possible actions that can be taken to respond to greenhouse gas reduction, including development of greenhouse gas reduction technology, infrastructure, actions to improve energy saving and efficiency, and offset with carbon emission reductions (CERs), this study shall focus on the investment on CERs. This study will take a look at risks involved with investing in CERs such as UN registration refusal risk and CERs price fluctuation, and will design risk management model which shall be verified. The goal of this paper is to provide optimized CERs investment strategies for different types of investors, such as general trading companies seeking for investment opportunities and financial companies with plans for green products development and investment by preparation for carbon market. It is expected that the global competitiveness of domestic financial companies shall be improved by taking actions on carbon market instead of previous passive response to climate change and that Korea, the number two Carbon Emissions supplier and number one derivatives market in terms of volume, shall be able to lead the worldwide carbon market.

The Effect of Social Support, Depression, Future Time Perspective, Active Aging on Emotional Change after Indirect Disaster Experience among the Elderly (재난 간접 경험 후 노인들의 정서 변화 양상: 사회적 지지, 우울, 미래시간조망 및 활동적 노년의 효과)

  • Myung Hyun Cho;Jae Yoon Chang;Kyung Ryu;Juil Rie
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.671-696
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of individual difference variables on emotional change after indirect trauma among elderly. After Sewolho Accident in South Korea, we invested emotion of the elderly and collected the same variables from the same sample two months after the accident. In study, we examined how social support, depression, future time perspective, and active aging affect emotion of elderly and which emotions are affected by these four variables. As a result, when compared to the counterpart, those with lower perceived social support, future time perspective, and active aging and higher depression level experienced lower levels of positive emotion and higher level of negative emotion after indirect disaster experience. Overall, we could certify that social support, future time perspective, and active aging functioned as protective factors, whereas depression functioned as a risk factor. Implications and limitations for our findings were discussed.

Foresight study on the Overseas Export of Nuclear Power Plants (시나리오 기반 미래원전산업의 환경변화 전망 및 수출전략 도출)

  • Hwang, Byung Yong;Choi, Han Lim;Lee, Yong Suk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

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Analyzing the Adoption of Online Payment using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 온라인 지불결제 서비스 수용에 관한 분석)

  • Mu, Hong-Lei;Lee, Young-Chan
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2018
  • Online retail business has provided internet-based companies with the opportunities to be connected with online customers from all over the world. However, many online customers do not complete their transactions online even if they have already choose what they want because they perceive online payment service is risky or perceive difficulty of paying online. A large body of researchers have examined the important variables that influence online payment, however, these studies can hardly predict the future development tendency after five or ten years since the environment of online market changes so fast more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the importance of factors affecting online payment and to provide long term dynamic decision making model for third-party payment companies and online service providers. To serve the purpose, this study used system dynamics approach to develop a model of online payment adoption and to simulate various development paths for ten years. The analysis results show that the number of online payment customers increase continuously in ten years, and service quality, system quality, and effort expectancy are key factors for customers to pay online.

The Effect of University Students' Startup Environment and Entrepreneurship Factors on Entrepreneurial Intention (대학생의 창업환경, 기업가정신 요인이 창업의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kuk-Gwen Lee;Jae Ho Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of university students' entrepreneurial environment and entrepreneurial spirit on their entrepreneurial intentions. The results of the study are as follows. As for the correlation among entrepreneurial environmental factors affecting entrepreneurial intentions of college students, it was confirmed that educational environment, legal system and government support, and social values had static correlation coefficient values. It was predicted that the six detailed hypotheses would be valid and would have an impact, but unexpected results were also derived. First, the hypothesis that the entrepreneurial environment of college students will affect entrepreneurial intention was partially accepted. Employment environment and education environment were dismissed, legal system and government support. It was confirmed that social values had a positive (+) effect on entrepreneurial intention. Second, the hypothesis that entrepreneurship of college students will affect entrepreneurship intention was also partially accepted. Risk sensitivity was rejected, and innovation and initiative were confirmed to have a positive (+) effect.

A Study on Antecedents of Game User Participation Intention in User Community in an Era of Convergence (융복합 시대 게임 사용자들의 유저 커뮤니티 참여 의도에 영향을 미치는 선행 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seil;Kim, Byoungsoo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2016
  • Several game developers or publishers adopt open innovation strategies to reduce R&D costs and increase user loyalty about their games. User communities play an important role in increasing users' interests in the game because they can share game information and skills in user communities. In this regard, this study explored key antecedents of game user participation intention in user community. We developed a research model by integrating perceived risk into theory of planned action. The theoretical model was tested by using survey data collected from 110 "Suddenattack" game users. Partial least squares (PLS) was utilized to analysis the research model. The findings of this study indicate that both perceived usefulness and perceived enjoyment play an important role in forming attitude toward community. However, contrast to our expectations, perceived risk has no signifiant effect on perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment, attitude toward community and participation intention. While attention toward community significantly influences community participation intention, social norms are not significantly related to it. The analysis results help game developers or publishers establish effective strategies and policies to increase user participation intention in user community.

A Study on the Strategies for Building a Digital Archive of Electronic Journals (해외 전자저널의 디지털 아카이브 구축 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Ho-Nam;Lee Eung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.161-183
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    • 2005
  • Current electronic journals subscription model based on license purchasing faces a dilemma of uncertainty in securing the perpetual access to the e-journal content that was once licensed and paid. In order to avoid future risks of suspended services this study addresses a digital archiving model and recommends a practical strategies for building a digital archive suitable for Korean library society by analyzing all of both expected problemic issues and success factors in performing the project.