• Title/Summary/Keyword: 연쇄효과

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Base Location Prediction Algorithm of Serial Crimes based on the Spatio-Temporal Analysis (시공간 분석 기반 연쇄 범죄 거점 위치 예측 알고리즘)

  • Hong, Dong-Suk;Kim, Joung-Joon;Kang, Hong-Koo;Lee, Ki-Young;Seo, Jong-Soo;Han, Ki-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.63-79
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    • 2008
  • With the recent development of advanced GIS and complex spatial analysis technologies, the more sophisticated technologies are being required to support the advanced knowledge for solving geographical or spatial problems in various decision support systems. In addition, necessity for research on scientific crime investigation and forensic science is increasing particularly at law enforcement agencies and investigation institutions for efficient investigation and the prevention of crimes. There are active researches on geographic profiling to predict the base location such as criminals' residence by analyzing the spatial patterns of serial crimes. However, as previous researches on geographic profiling use simply statistical methods for spatial pattern analysis and do not apply a variety of spatial and temporal analysis technologies on serial crimes, they have the low prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper identifies the typology the spatio-temporal patterns of serial crimes according to spatial distribution of crime sites and temporal distribution on occurrence of crimes and proposes STA-BLP(Spatio-Temporal Analysis based Base Location Prediction) algorithm which predicts the base location of serial crimes more accurately based on the patterns. STA-BLP improves the prediction accuracy by considering of the anisotropic pattern of serial crimes committed by criminals who prefer specific directions on a crime trip and the learning effect of criminals through repeated movement along the same route. In addition, it can predict base location more accurately in the serial crimes from multiple bases with the local prediction for some crime sites included in a cluster and the global prediction for all crime sites. Through a variety of experiments, we proved the superiority of the STA-BLP by comparing it with previous algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy.

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A Parallel Axial-Flexural Hinge Model for Nonlinear Dynamic Progressive Collapse Analysis of Welded Steel Moment Frames (용접 철골모멘트골조의 비선형 동적 연쇄붕괴해석을 위한 병렬 소성힌지 모델의 개발)

  • Lee, Cheol Ho;Kim, Seon Woong;Lee, Kyung Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.155-164
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a computationally efficient parallel axial-flexural plastic hinge model is proposed for nonlinear dynamic progressive collapse analysis of welded steel moment frames. To this end, post-yield flexural behavior and the interaction of bending moment and axial force of the double-span beams in the column's missing event was first investigated by using material and geometric nonlinear parametric finite element analysis. A piece-wise linear parallel point hinge model that captures the moment-axial tension interaction was then proposed and applied to nonlinear dynamic progressive collapse analysis of welded steel moment frames with the use of the OpenSees Program. The accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed model was verified based on the inelastic dynamic finite element analysis results. The importance of including the catenary action effects for proper progressive collapse resistant analysis and design was also emphasized.

Performance Drivers of Entrepreneurial Restarts (재창업 기업의 성과 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Young Im
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2014
  • This article investigates the effects of prior firm founding experience, prior firm's performance, same industry matters, entrepreneurship communities or educations on subsequent firm performance. This study also explores whether same industry matters and entrepreneurship communities or educations have interaction effects between entrepreneurial experience and subsequent firm performance. The results show that prior firm founding experience and prior firm's performance have a positive effect on subsequent firm performance. The rest of variables have no significant direct effects on firm performance. However, same industry matters and entrepreneurship communities or educations have interaction effects of entrepreneurial experience on firm performance. Based on results of this empirical study, this study draws some implications that entrepreneurs can become serial entrepreneurs and experience entrepreneurial success.

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Progressive Collapse Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Core Structure Subjected to Internal Blast Loading (내부 폭발하중을 받는 철근콘크리트 코어의 연쇄붕괴 해석)

  • Kim, Han-Soo;Ahn, Jae-Gyun;Ahn, Hyo-Seong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.715-722
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, internal blast effect of reinforced concrete core structure were investigated using Ansys Autodyn, which is a specialized hydrocode for the analysis of explosion and impact. It is expected that internal blast case can give additional damage to the structure because it causes rebound of blast loads. Therefore, in this paper, the hazard of internal blast effect is demonstrated using UFC 3-340-02 criteria. In addition, analysis result of Autodyn, experimental result regarding rebound of blast load, and example of UFC 340-02 are compared to verify that Autodyn can analyze internal blast effect properly. Furthermore, progressive collapse mechanism of core structure which is one of the most important parts in high rise buildings is also analyzed using Autodyn. When internal blasts are loaded to core structure, the core structure is mostly damaged on its corner and front part of core wall from explosives. Therefore, if the damaged parts of core wall are demolished, progressive collapse of the core structure can be initiated.

The Role of the Value Added Network Service Industry in the Korean Economy: Using An Input-Output Analysis (부가통신서비스산업의 경제적 파급효과 분석: 산업연관분석을 이용하여)

  • Shin, Yong Jea;Choi, Sung Wook
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2013
  • The value added network service industry has played and important role in the telecommunication service industry and in the economic development of Korea. This study uses input-output analysis to investigate the role of value added network service sector in the Korean national economy for the period 2000, 2005, 2009, focusing on four topics in its application: production inducing effects, value-added inducing effect, employment-inducing effects by demand-driven model and supply shortage effect by supply-driven model, inflation impacts by the Leontief price model, finally analysing inter-industry linkage effects. The results of this study are as follows: production inducing effects analysis 2000 0.5253won to 2009 1.31314won, value-added inducing effects 0.25112won to 0.5337won employment inducing effects from 0.09749 to 0.21025 people grew, the supply shortage effect from 1.29003 to 2.12048won, price impact of Leontief price model was increased from 0.0022% to 0.00258%. Finally, inter-industry linkage effects, appeared to have the characteristics of final demand raw industrial.

The Major Ripple Effects of the Logistics Industry (Using a MRIO(Multi-Regional Input-Output) Analysis) (물류산업의 주요 경제적 파급효과분석 (MRIO를 이용하여))

  • Choe, Yeong-Yun;Kim, Chan-Seong;Park, Min-Cheol;Seong, Hong-Mo;Sin, Seung-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2010
  • This study aims to identify the impact of the logistics industry on the Korean national economy. To do this, we used a MRIO table provided by the Bank of Korea which includes inter and intra regional relationship of the production and consumption for 6 areas - the Seoul Metropolitan, Gangwon, Chungcheong, Jeonra, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam area, but an original MRIO table was recomposed of 29 sectors focused on logistics industry for the purpose of this study. we analyzed producing-inducing effects, supply-shortage effects and inter-industry linkage effects based on logistics industry by region and industry. As a result, the logistics industry has more supply-shortage effect rather than production-inducing effect and has a higher ripple effect on the automotive in Gyeongnam area and petrochemical industry in Jeonra area. In particular, the ripple effect of th Metropolitan logistic industry was far smaller than that of other areas, because the Seoul Metropolitan industry was identified as the primary and middle demand industry.

An Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Advertising and the Film Industry (광고산업과 영화산업의 산업연관효과 분석)

  • Kwon, Shin-Hye;Chang, Byeng-Hee;Park, Kyung-Woo
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.671-678
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we conducted an industry input-output analysis to examine the impact of the advertising industry on the movie industry. As a result, the production inducement effect increased from 1993 to 2008, and it decreased from 2009 to 2012. In 2014, the production inducement effect increased to 0.028 won. Value added effect is found that it fluctuated yearly. As a result of the sensitivity coefficient of the advertising industry, it decreased increasingly. In the case of the influence coefficient for backward linkage effect, it showed a decreasing tendency after 1998, but it increased from the beginning of 2009. This study examines the influence of the advertising industry on the input of the output by analyzing the impact of the advertising industry on the movie industry. As a follow-up study, it is necessary to compare the impact of the advertising industry on the movie industry and other industries such as publishing and broadcasting.

Development of Real-time PCR Assays for Detection of Dirofilaria immitis from Infected Dog Blood (심장사상충에 감염된 개의 혈액에서 심장사상충 유전자를 검출할 수 있는 실시간 중합효소연쇄반응 기법 개발)

  • Oh, In Young;Kim, Kyung Tae;Jun, Jin Hyun;Shin, Jae-Ho;Sung, Ho Joong
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.88-93
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    • 2016
  • Dirofilaria immitis is a filarial nematode parasite that causes cardiopulmonary dirofilariasis in dogs. The purpose of this study was the development of real-time PCR assays for efficient detection of D. immitis. The D. immitis-specific primers confirmed in our previous study and a newly designed TaqMan probe were used for quantitative diagnostics. First, SYBR Green real-time PCR was performed using the specific primers and serially diluted genomic DNA or plasmid DNA, and melting curve analyses were performed after amplification. The melting curve showed one specific peak in each of the genomic and plasmid DNA reactions, suggesting that the primers specifically amplify the D. immitis cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. Comparison of SYBR Green and TaqMan real-time PCR using serially diluted plasmid DNA showed higher efficiency and specificity with TaqMan real-time PCR. The real-time PCR assays developed in this study will provide improved diagnostic methods to overcome the limitations of conventional diagnostic tools and facilitate more rapid and accurate diagnoses.

An Economic Ripple Effect Analysis of National Scientific Data Center Construction (국가 과학데이터센터 구축의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Uk;Hahn, Sun-Hwa
    • Journal of Information Management
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2011
  • In the modern scientific R&D, the efficient acquisition, curation, analysis and visualization are core elements of the science development. The value of scientific data is very important in data intensive research. An output of scientific data is drastically increasing. However we have only each individual system of scientific data in now. Therefore We feel a lack of efficiency of scientific data. In this paper, We analyze an economic ripple effects in terms of production inducement effect, added value inducement effect, labor inducement effect and forward backward linkage effect of national scientific data center construction using an input-out analysis of the bank of Korea(2009). We also examine an economic propriety of national scientific data center construction.

Prediction in run-off triangle using Bayesian linear model (삼각분할표 자료에서 베이지안 모형을 이용한 예측)

  • Lee, Ju-Mi;Lim, Jo-Han;Hahn, Kyu-S.;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.411-423
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    • 2009
  • In the current paper, by extending Verall (1990)'s work, we propose a new Bayesian model for analyzing run-off triangle data. While Verall's (1990) work only account for the calendar year and evolvement time effects, our model further accounts for the "absolute time" effects. We also suggest a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that can be used for estimating the proposed model. We apply our proposed method to analyzing three empirical examples. The results demonstrate that our method significantly reduces prediction error when compared with the existing methods.

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