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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

The Efficacy Evaluation of Tourmaline-Ionized Water in Animal Study (투어마린이온활성수의 효능 평가)

  • Yoon, Yang-Suk;Kim, Dong-Heui;Qi, Xu-Feng;Song, Soon-Bong;Jung, Jong-Ho;Joo, Kyung-Bok;Teng, Yung-Chien;Lee, Kyu-Jae
    • Applied Microscopy
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.311-317
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    • 2009
  • This study was performed using animals to confirm the effect of tourmaline-ionized water (TIW) the properties of which were changed by tourmaline energy and electric discharge. In the ICR mice fed high-fat diet, body weight increasing rate of the TIW-treated group (Exp) was generally decreased and moreover exhibited significance at 11th week (P<0.05) compared with the control (Con) group fed distilled water, although water intake of the Exp group was lower than that of the Con group. In the ICR mice with $CCl_4$-induced hepatotoxicity, AST and ALT activities of the Exp group were not significant but showed some decreasing trend, and histological damage of liver was less compared with thatof the Con group. On the study of ethanol-induced hangovers in Sprague-Dawley rat, blood alcohol concentration was significantly decreased (P<0.01), activity of GST, antioxidant enzyme related to the alcohol metabolism, was increased in liver tissue (P<0.05), and AST and ALT show a tendency to be decreasedin the Exp group. These results suggest that drinking TIWhas not only some obesity preventing effect but also an alcohol detoxification effect and liver protecting effect in vivo. It is supposed due to a structural change of water cluster and a property which maintains the changed structure through tourmaline energy and electric discharge. Therefore, TIW has a potentiality to be developed as functional water with several beneficial effects as well as for daily drinking, but further study on the mechanism related with efficacy will be necessary.

A study on the school health education curriculum development focused on the health education course in primary school (국민학교 보건교육 교과과정의 개선방안에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hwa-Joong;Lee, In-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.36-63
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study was development of school health education curriculum in primary school based on analysis of the textbooks published in 1991. 1) The health education curriculum in primary school consisted of four major components such as health education aspects of the healthful school environments, health education aspects of school health services, health education course, and health instruction in related subjects. However, health instruction taught by physical education, biology, and other health related subjects was not systematic organization for health care. 2) A considerable amount of health knowledge and attitude, and some health practices was learned as the result of experiences in other courses, where there was little or no reference to health. It must be developed health edcation course separated from health related subjects. 3) Direct health insruction was represented by the health education course. The health education courses must be considered to be heart of the school health education curriculum. 4) The health education course developed by this study was consisted of eight health units and problems in the early elementary grade or health classes in the higher years. 5) The health education course developed by this study provided the opportunity for acquring new knowledge, attitude, and practice, for discarding the unhealtful attitude and strengthening the healthful attitude and practices of primary school students.

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High fructose and high fat diet increased bone volume of trabecular and cortical bone in growing female rats (고과당 및 고지방 식이의 섭취가 성장기 동물모델의 골성장과 골성숙에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Hyejin;Yoo, SooYeon;Park, Yoo-Kyoung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.381-389
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of a high fructose and fat diet on bone growth and maturation in growing female rats. Methods: Three-week-old female SD rats were randomly assigned to four experimental groups; the control group (CON: fed control diet based on AIN-93G, n = 8); the high-fructose diet group (HFrc: fed control diet with 30% fructose, n = 8); the high-fat diet group (Hfat: fed control diet with 45 kcal% fat, n = 8); and the high-fat diet plus high fructose group (HFrc + HFat: fed diets 45 kcal% fat with 30% fructose, n = 8). Each group was assigned their respective diets for the remaining eight weeks. Bone-related parameters (bone mineral density (BMD) and structural parameters, osteocalcin (OC), deoxypyridinoline (DPD)) and morphologic changes of kidney were analyzed at the end of the experiment. Results: Final body weights and weight gain were higher in the HFat and HFrc + HFat groups and showed higher tendency in the HFrc group compared with those of the CON group (p < 0.05); however, no significant difference in caloric intake was observed among the four experimental groups. The serum OC levels of the HFrc and HFrc + HFat groups were lower than those of the CON and HFat groups (p < 0.05). Urinary levels of DPD did not differ among the experimental groups. BV/TV and Tb.N of trabecular bone were higher in the HFrc + HFat group and showed a higher tendency in the HFrc group than those of the CON and HFat groups (p < 0.05). Tb.Pf of trabecular bone were lower in the HFrc + HFat group than those in the CON and HFat groups (p < 0.05). However, no difference in trabecular BMD was observed among the experimental groups. Cortical bone volume was higher in the HFat and HFrc + HFat groups than in the CON and HFrc groups (p < 0.05). No morphology change in kidney was observed among the experimental groups. Conclusion: Our study suggests that 8 weeks of high-fructose and high fat intake could improve the bone quality (Structural parameters) of trabecular and cortical bone of tibia in growing female rats.

Multilateral Approach to forming Air Logistics Hub on North East Asia Region (동북아 항공물류허브을 구축하기 위한 다자적 접근방안)

  • Hong, Seock-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.97-136
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    • 2004
  • The Northeast Asian air cargo market has expanded tremendously as a result of the opening up of the Chinese market. The importance of the Asia-Pacific region in the global air transport has also increased. The exchange of human and material resources, services, and information in Northeast Asia, which is expected to increase in the near future, requires that the airlines operating within this region adopt a more liberalized approach. This paper introduced alternatives which can be applied to the Northeast Asian airlines industry so as to bring about the integration of regional air transport: First, this paper found a need for individual Northeast Asian nations to alter their policies towards the airlines industry. Second, each country should further liberalize their respective domestic air transport. Third, there is a need for freer air service agreements to be signed between the nations of Northeast Asia. Fourth, the strategic alliances between the airlines operating in Northeast Asia should be further strengthened. Fifth, this liberalization process should be carried out in an incremental manner, beginning with more competitive airports and routes, or with less-in-demand routes. Sixth, there is a need for a shuttle system to be put into place between the main airports in China, Korea, and Japan. Seventh, these three nations jointly develop aviation safety and security systems that are in accordance with international standards. Eighth, the liberalization process of the aviation industry should be undertaken in conjunction with other related fields. Ninth, organizations linking together civil aviation organization in the Asia-Pacific area should be formed, as should each government linking together. By doing so, these countries will be able to establish regular venues through which to exchange opinions on the integration and liberalization of the air cargo market so as to induce the gradual liberalization of the actual market. The liberalization of the air transport in Northeast Asia will prove to be a daunting task in the short term. However, if the Chinese airlines continue to exhibit continuous growth and Japanese airlines are able to complete their move towards a low-cost structure, this process could be completed earlier than expected. Over the last twenty five years the air transport has undergone tremendous changes. The most important factor behind these changes has been the increased liberalization of the market. As a result, rates have decreased while demand has increased. This has resulted in turning the air transport industry, which was long perceived as an industry in decline, into a high-growth industry. The only method of increasing regional exchanges in the air transport is to pursue further liberalization. The country which implements this liberalization process at the earliest date may very well emerge as a leading force within the air transport industry.

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A Case Study - IT Outsourcing of the Korea Development Bank (산업은행: 금융 IT 아웃소싱 - 공동협력으로 안전한 문을 연다)

  • Kang, Ju-Young;Lee, Jae-Kyu
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.229-255
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    • 2005
  • The Korea Development Bank promoted a total outsourcing for IT operation in 1999 for the first time in the banking industry. The Korea Development Bank became the center of public attention because the most banks were unwilling to take an outsourcing with external sources for the reason of financial operation accidents, securities, and threats of strikes. After the introduction of the total IT outsourcing, the Korea Development Bank has continuously diagnosed the problems of the IT outsourcing and adopted various proper complements for the enhancement of the IT outsourcing. As the result of the enhancement, the IT outsourcing of the Korea Development Bank marched into the joint liability operation period after going through the outsourcing operation period and the co-operation period. The joint liability operation which is the most leading outsourcing system which is adopted by the Korea Development Bank for the first time in the banking industry. Through the joint liability operation, the Korea Development Bank could accept the most up-to-date IT, concentrate internal manpower on the core capability, and secure flexibility of manpower. Also, the bank changed the relationship between the bank and the external sources from the one-sided relationship between a producers and a consumer to the joint liability relationship on which both sides are responsible for the operation, and could integrate the internal capacity with the professional know-how of the external IT outsourcing company. In this paper, we testified the soundness and validity for the worries of banks about the total IT outsourcing with external sources. And, we arranged the advantages and outcomes of the total IT outsourcing with external sources compared to the IT outsourcing with internal sources. Moreover, we expect that we can improve the closed financial IT outsourcing industry structure and raise the world competitive power of domestic IT outsourcing companies by correcting wrong ideas on the IT outsourcing with external sources.

A Study on Characteristics of Vegetation Distribution according to Revetment Techniques of Riverbank in Han River, Korea (한강 하천제방 호안공법에 따른 식생분포 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Sik;Kwak, Jeong-In;Lee, Kyong-Jae;Han, Bong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2011
  • This study has analyzed the vegetation composition in the areas using different slope revetment techniques of riverbanks, in a way to improve the vegetation induction in the future considering the ecological aspects of the induction in Garaeyoul Village, Gangdong-gu, Seoul. The result of the vegetation distribution in each different slope revetment technique was analyzed, that the naturalized herb was dominant in the pole block accounting for 70.7%, while native herb was dominant in the lawn block occupying 48.5% and in the crib block occupying 55.7%. The vegetation coverage measured by different slope revetment techniques was highest in the crib block(average 97.5%), followed by the lawn block(average 95.3%) and pole block(average 27.9%). The vegetation base area was the most wide in the crib block and the most narrowest in the pole block. The result of community analysis in areas using different slope revetment techniques, dry herbs and vine herbs were dominated and the coverage was very poor in the pole block. In the lawn block, the barb was fragmented into narrow areas due to the blocks, which prevented the creation of large-scale plant communities. In the crib block, Miscanthus sacchariflorus, Fescue arundinacea and Aster pilosus, which also consisted of large-scale communities. Average dry weight was also measured by each slope revetment technique. The weight was heaviest in the crib block with $187.63g/m^2$, followed by the lawn block($137.65g/m^2$) and pole block($6.75g/m^2$). The soil moisture contents in the crib block and lawn block was 16.3% and 15.2%, respectively, while that of the pole block was 4.7%, which revealed the highly dry condition of the pole block soil. The analysis result of soil chemical property showed that there was little difference in soil texture, soile acidity(pH), and exchangeable ion content, however, the soil organic matter(OM) content and available $P_2O_5$ were highest in the pole block. In the future, in order to induce more vegetation into river banks and walls, a proper construction method should be applied so that the vegetation area can be expanded as much as possible, considering the safety of the banks.

Development of a Dynamic Offtracking Model on Horizontal Curve Sections (Based on Articulated Vehicles) (도로 평면곡선부에서 동적궤도이탈모형 개발에 관한 연구 (굴절차량을 중심으로))

  • 최재성;김우현
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2002
  • Dislike the tangent sections, the horizontal curve sections of roads should be designed, considering several factors : one of such factors is widening. In other words, since widening results from that when a vehicle runs on the horizontal curve sections, the rear wheels of the vehicle run not along with tracks of the front wheels but out of that, such offtracking should be exactly investigated and reflected in design of the curve sections. Especially in the case of industrial roads which semi-trailers and large trucks run frequently or arterial roads with small curve radiuses in mountainous regions. serious offtracking Phenomenons result in increasing the risk of accidents. decreasing the capacities and jeopardizing pedestrians' safety on the curve sections. For the offtracking, widening amounts of roads has been determined under the traditional presumption that vehicles run at a low speed and there is no superelevation. In fact, however, since the vehicles run at a high speed as well as at a low speed and the superelevation is installed on the horizontal curve sections in the structural aspect of roads, the existing standards for installing widening have a limitation to reflect exactly actual Phenomenons. In particular, for articulated wheel axles of a tractor and a trailer and long articulated vehicles, not only the offtracking degree is very high but also the interpretation shows different aspects from one of single axles. Comparing and reviewing the results of Korean and foreign studies related to the trailer offtracking model theory and the standards for installing widening, this study developed a realistic dynamic offtracking model which considers geometric structures of roads and speeds of vehicles, suggested how to measure widening with this model and examined applicability of the model. The findings of this study are as follows ; First. a dynamic offtracking model. which considers dynamic movements of a tractor and a trailer and the superelevation, was developed. Second, a new method to measure widening with the developed dynamic offtracking model was developed and a method to measure widening with swept path width was suggested as well. Finally, validity of the current standards for installing widening was examined by determining actual offtracking and widening amounts with the developed model and the applicability was investigated through the case studies. Compared with the existing offtracking models, the dynamic offtracking model developed in this study can reflect practically vehicle speed. dimension and geometric structural aspects of roads. In conclusion, the meaning of this study is that it reviews validity of the current standards for installing widening and provides a base to establish such standards by suggesting new methods to measure the widening with this dynamic offtracking model.

Is Video-assisted Thoracoscopic Resection for Treating Apical Neurogenic Tumors Always Safe? (흉강 첨부 양성 신경종의 흉강경을 이용한 절제술: 언제나 안전하게 시행할 수 있나?)

  • Cho, Deog Gon;Jo, Min Seop;Kang, Chul Ung;Cho, Kyu Do;Choi, Si Young;Park, Jae Kil;Jo, Keon Hyeon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.72-78
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    • 2009
  • Background: Mediastinal neurogenic tumors are generally benign lesions and they are ideal candidates for performing resection via video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS). However, benign neurogenic tumors at the thoracic apex present technical problems for the surgeon because of the limited exposure of the neurovascular structures, and the optimal way to surgically access these tumors is still a matter of debate. This study aims to clarify the feasibility and safety of the VATS approach for performing surgical resection of benign apical neurogenic tumors (ANT). Material and Method: From January 1996 to September 2008, 31 patients with benign ANT (15 males/16 females, mean age: 45 years, range: 8~73), were operated on by various surgical methods: 14 VATS, 10 lateral thoracotomies, 6 cervical or cervicothoracic incisions and 1 median sternotomy. 3 patients had associated von Recklinhausen's disease. The perioperative variables and complications were retrospectively reviewed according to the surgical approaches, and the surgical results of VATS were compared with those of the other invasive surgeries. Result: In the VATS group, the histologic diagnosis was schwannoma in 9 cases, neurofibroma in 4 cases and ganglioneuroma in 1 case, and the median tumor size was 4.3 cm (range: 1.2~7.0 cm). The operation time, amount of chest tube drainage and the postoperative stay in the VATS group were significantly less than that in the other invasive surgical group (p<0.05). No conversion thoracotomy was required. There were 2 cases of Hornor's syndrome and 2 brachial plexus neuropathies in the VATS group; there was 1 case of Honor's syndrome, 1 brachial plexus neuropathy, 1 vocal cord palsy and 2 non-neurologic complications in the invasive surgical group, and all the complications developed postoperatively. The operative method was an independent predictor for postoperative neuropathies in the VATS group (that is, non-enucleation of the tumor) (p=0.029). Conclusion: The VATS approach for treating benign ANT is a less invasive, safe and feasible method. Enucleation of the tumor during the VATS procedure may be an important technique to decrease the postoperative neurological complications.

A Study on the Domestic Small Package Express Service′s Competitive Power Improvement Plan at EC Times (전자상거래 시대 국내 택배업의 경쟁력 향상 방안에 관한 연구)

  • 박영태;정종식
    • Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.31-59
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    • 2002
  • Recently there are many changes of logistics environment Such as integrated logistics information system, the rapid growth of the domestic and international small package express service and third party logistics with Electronic Commerce. At this time it is very important to deliver to customers the goods sold through EC speedy, accurately and safely. That is to say, the role of small package express service is very important at EC times. The bottlenecks of small package express service in the circumstances of EC are the weakness of EC operating company and small package express service provider the shortage of distribution centre and cargo terminal, the shortage of skilled man with related small package express service etc. So, I suggested that for activation of EC it is necessary to strengthen the strategic alliances, introduce GPS and use the third party logistics positively in the side of small package express service provider. And it is necessary to prepare for the settlements of traffic problems, support the introduction of integrated logistics service, logistics information system, deregulate restriction such as weight limit of vehicles in the side of the government. And to government support throughout extending nation's SOC, deregulation, support to small package express service terminal, permit to stopping & parking in downtown, abolishing a no passing zone, permit to being employed foreigner. Also this service involves ensuring that the product will arrive when wanted, and in an undamaged condition.

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