• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신흥통화

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The Analysis and Comparison of the Hedging Effectiveness for Currency Futures Markets : Emerging Currency versus Advanced Currency (통화선물시장의 헤징유효성 비교 : 신흥통화 대 선진통화)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.155-180
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    • 2009
  • This study is to estimate and compare hedging effectiveness in emerging currency and advanced currency futures markets. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real and advanced currency futures is Europe euro, British pound, and Japan yen. Hedging effectiveness is measured by comparing hedging performance of the naive hedge model, OLS model, error correction model and constant condintional correlation bivariate GARCH(1, 1) hedge model based on rolling windows. Analysis data is used daily spot and futures rates from January, 2, 2001 to March. 10, 2006. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, irrespective of hedging period and model, hedging using Korea won/dollar futures reduces spot rate's volatility risk by 97%. Second, Korea won/dollar futures market produces the best hedging performance in emerging and advanced currency futures markets, i.e. Mexico peso, Brazil real, Europe euro, British pound, and Japan yen. Third, there are no difference of hedging effectiveness among hedging models.

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The Measurement and Comparison of the Relative Efficiency for Currency Futures Markets : Advanced Currency versus Emerging Currency (통화선물시장의 상대적 효율성 측정과 비교 : 선진통화 대 신흥통화)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyuk;Eom, Cheol-Jun;Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2008
  • This study is to evaluate, to the extent to, which advanced currency futures and emerging currency futures markets can predict accurately the future spot rate. To this end, Johansen's the maximum-likelihood cointegration method(1988, 1991) is adopted to test the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis. Also, this study is to estimate and compare a quantitative measure of relative efficiency as a ratio of the forecast error variance from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model to the forecast error variance of the futures price as predictor of the spot price in advanced currency futures with in emerging currency futures market. Advanced currency futures is British pound and Japan yen. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won and Japan yen futures exchange rates. This indicates that the emerging currency Korea won and the advanced currency Japan yen futures exchange rates are likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second, in emerging currency futures markets, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won futures market apart from Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets. This indicates that in emerging currency futures markets, Korea won futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets and is likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without risk premium. Third, this findings show that the results of unbiasedness hypothesis tests can provide conflicting finding. according to currency futures class and forecasts horizon period, Fourth, from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model with forecast horizons of 14 days, the findings suggest the Japan yen futures market is 27.06% efficient, the British pound futures market is 26.87% efficient, the Korea won futures market is 20.77% efficient, the Mexico peso futures market is 11.55%, and the Brazil real futures market is 4.45% efficient in the usual order. This indicates that the Korea won-dollar futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso, and Brazil real futures market. It is therefore possible to concludes that the Korea won-dollar currency futures market has relatively high efficiency comparing with Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets of emerging currency futures markets.

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The Analysis of Determinants of Currency Internationalization in a Multipolar World Economy and its Prospects (다극화시대의 국제통화 결정요인 분석 및 전망)

  • Kim, Hyungsik;Hwang, Yun-Seop
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.349-368
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    • 2011
  • The emergence of new multipolar world economy along with the predominant growth of emerging economies encourages these emerging countries to internationalize their currencies. Currently the discrepancy between qualification and status of international currency is easily observed, and the emerging market currencies are no doubt underestimated considering their share of the world's economic size and trade volume. This paper studies the determinant factors of currency internationalization for five key currencies (US Dollar, Yen, Euro, Pound, and Swiss Franc). The analysis shows economic size, trade volume, and the stability of price and exchange rate are most important. Based on this result, Chinese Yuan is forecast to become a new international currency in the near future. Therefore, Korea needs to preempt the issue of regional economic integration, and even currency integration, by taking into account the possibility of internationalized Yuan.

Actual Condition on Preliminary Educational Organizations of Sinheung Military Academy Confirmed from Manjugisa by Yi Sang-nyon - Focused on Liuhexian·Tonghuaxian (석주(石洲) 이상룡(李相龍)의 「만주기사(滿洲紀事)」 분석을 통해 본 신흥무관학교(新興武官學校)의 하급교육기관 실태 - 유하(柳河)·통화현(通化縣)을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Sung-soon
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.67
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    • pp.173-201
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    • 2017
  • Sinheung Military Academy was the first one which prepared for independence war built by members of Sinminhoe in Western Manchuria. Sinheung Military Academy is known that nurtured 3,500 independence soldiers during 10 years from 1911 thorough 1920. Nevertheless no people know how it recruited so many students for 10 tears. In the course of studying the recruit of Sinheung Military Academy, I became to focus on Manjugisa by Yi Sang-nyog. Although Yi Sang-nyon remembered that there were over five hundred students in Sinheung Military Academy from just after it's set up in Manjugisa, scholars overlooked that mention so far. In addition, in the Sixth poem of Manjugisa, Yi Sang-nyong recollected that there were 30 preliminary educational organizations in 1918 after installation of Sinheung Military Academy in 1911. Therefore I concluded that the over 500 students nurtured from just after installation of Sinheung Military Academy were summed up students of preliminary educational organizations over Sinheung Military Academy's and proved it. The students of preliminary educational organizations in Liuhexian Tonghuaxian entranced into Sinheung Military Academy after graduation. The graduates of Sinheung Military Academy taught the students of preliminary educational organizations a common and military educations in duty for two years. In conclusion, Sinheung Military Academy and nearby preliminary educational organizations were an wide military camp organically maintained by Korean in Western Manchuria for big purpose of independence war.

전한점의 기로에 선 LNG시장

  • Korea LPGas Industry Association
    • LP가스
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    • s.69
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    • pp.59-63
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    • 2000
  • 아시아의 LNG 시장은 통화위기로부터 경제적 회복과 인도, 중국과 같이 확장해가는 신흥시장에 의해 성장을 다시 시작한 것 같다. 그러나 가스 및 전력산업의 규제철폐로 인해 가속화되어갓는 확장시장에서의 경쟁의 소용돌이 속에서 일본, 한국 그리고 대만의 LNG구매자들은 그들의 LNG수요 전망의 불확실성을 증가 시켰갔다.

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Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

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