• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열분석방법

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A study on the application of the agricultural reservoir water level recognition model using CCTV image data (농업용 저수지 CCTV 영상자료 기반 수위 인식 모델 적용성 검토)

  • Kwon, Soon Ho;Ha, Changyong;Lee, Seungyub
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.245-259
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    • 2023
  • The agricultural reservoir is a critical water supply system in South Korea, providing approximately 60% of the agricultural water demand. However, the reservoir faces several issues that jeopardize its efficient operation and management. To address this issues, we propose a novel deep-learning-based water level recognition model that uses CCTV image data to accurately estimate water levels in agricultural reservoirs. The model consists of three main parts: (1) dataset construction, (2) image segmentation using the U-Net algorithm, and (3) CCTV-based water level recognition using either CNN or ResNet. The model has been applied to two reservoirs G-reservoir and M-reservoir with observed CCTV image and water level time series data. The results show that the performance of the image segmentation model is superior, while the performance of the water level recognition model varies from 50 to 80% depending on water level classification criteria (i.e., classification guideline) and complexity of image data (i.e., variability of the image pixels). The performance of the model can be improved if more numbers of data can be collected.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

Analysis of Waterbody Changes in Small and Medium-Sized Reservoirs Using Optical Satellite Imagery Based on Google Earth Engine (Google Earth Engine 기반 광학 위성영상을 이용한 중소규모 저수지 수체 변화 분석)

  • Younghyun Cho;Joonwoo Noh
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.363-375
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    • 2024
  • Waterbody change detection using satellite images has recently been carried out in various regions in South Korea, utilizing multiple types of sensors. This study utilizes optical satellite images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) to analyze long-term surface water area changes in four monitored small and medium-sized water supply dams and agricultural reservoirs in South Korea. The analysis covers 19 years for the water supply dams and 27 years for the agricultural reservoirs. By employing image analysis methods such as normalized difference water index, Canny Edge Detection, and Otsu'sthresholding for waterbody detection, the study reliably extracted water surface areas, allowing for clear annual changes in waterbodies to be observed. When comparing the time series data of surface water areas derived from satellite images to actual measured water levels, a high correlation coefficient above 0.8 was found for the water supply dams. However, the agricultural reservoirs showed a lower correlation, between 0.5 and 0.7, attributed to the characteristics of agricultural reservoir management and the inadequacy of comparative data rather than the satellite image analysis itself. The analysis also revealed several inconsistencies in the results for smaller reservoirs, indicating the need for further studies on these reservoirs. The changes in surface water area, calculated using GEE, provide valuable spatial information on waterbody changes across the entire watershed, which cannot be identified solely by measuring water levels. This highlights the usefulness of efficiently processing extensive long-term satellite imagery data. Based on these findings, it is expected that future research could apply this method to a larger number of dam reservoirs with varying sizes,shapes, and monitoring statuses, potentially yielding additional insights into different reservoir groups.

A Study for establishment of soil moisture station in mountain terrain (1): the representative analysis of soil moisture for construction of Cosmic-ray verification system (산악 지형에서의 토양수분 관측소 구축을 위한 연구(1): Cosmic-ray 검증시스템 구축을 위한 토양수분량 대표성 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Kiyoung;Jung, Sungwon;Lee, Yeongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2019
  • The major purpose of this study is to construct an in-situ soil moisture verification network employing Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) sensors for Cosmic-ray soil moisture observation system operation as well as long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring. The test bed of Cosmic-ray and FDR verification network system was established at the Sulma Catchment, in connection with the existing instrumentations for integrated data provision of various hydrologic variables. This test bed includes one Cosmic-ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) and ten FDR stations with four different measurement depths (10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, and 40 cm) at each station, and has been operating since July 2018. Furthermore, to assess the reliability of the in-situ verification network, the volumetric water content data measured by FDR sensors were compared to those calculated through the core sampling method. The evaluation results of FDR sensors- measured soil moisture against sampling method during the study period indicated a reasonable agreement, with average values of $bias=-0.03m^3/m^3$ and RMSE $0.03m^3/m^3$, revealing that this FDR network is adequate to provide long-term reliable field-scale soil moisture monitoring at Sulmacheon basin. In addition, soil moisture time series observed at all FDR stations during the study period generally respond well to the rainfall events; and at some locations, the characteristics of rainfall water intercepted by canopy were also identified. The Temporal Stability Analysis (TSA) was performed for all FDR stations located within the CRNP footprint at each measurement depth to determine the representative locations for field-average soil moisture at different soil profiles of the verification network. The TSA results showed that superior performances were obtained at FDR 5 for 10 cm depth, FDR 8 for 20 cm depth, FDR2 for 30 cm depth, and FDR1 for 40 cm depth, respectively; demonstrating that those aforementioned stations can be regarded as temporal stable locations to represent field mean soil moisture measurements at their corresponding measurement depths. Although the limit on study duration has been presented, the analysis results of this study can provide useful knowledge on soil moisture variability and stability at the test bed, as well as supporting the utilization of the Cosmic-ray observation system for long-term field-scale soil moisture monitoring.

The Effects of the Revised Elderly Fixed Outpatient Copayment on the Health Utilization of the Elderly (노인외래정액제 개선이 고령층의 의료이용에 미친 영향)

  • Li-hyun Kim;Gyeong-Min Lee;Woo-Ri Lee;Ki-Bong Yoo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.196-210
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    • 2024
  • Background: In January 2018, revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment for the elderly were implemented. When people ages 65 years and older receive outpatient treatment at clinic-level medical institutions (clinic, dental clinic, Korean medicine clinic), with medical expenses exceeding 15,000 won but not exceeding 25,000 won, their copayment rates have decreased differentially from 30%. This study aimed to examine the changes of health utilization of elderly after revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment. Methods: We used Korea health panel data from 2016 to 2018. The time period is divided into before and after the revised elderly fixed outpatient copayment. We conducted Poisson segmented regression to estimate the changes in outpatient utilization and inpatient utilization and conducted segmented regression to estimate the changes in medical expenses. Results: Immediately after the revised policy, the number of clinic and Korean medicine outpatient visits of medical expenses under 15,000 won decreased. But the number of clinic outpatient visits in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 won and Korean medicine clinic in the range of 20,000 to 25,000 won increased. Copayment in outpatient temporarily decreased. The inpatient admission rates and total medical expenses temporarily decreased but increased again. Conclusion: We confirmed the temporary increase in outpatient utilization in the medical expense segment with reduced copayment rates. And a temporary decrease in medical expenses followed by an increase again. To reduce the burden of medical expense among elderly in the long run, efforts to establish chronic disease management policies aimed at preventing disease occurrence and deterioration in advance need to continue.

Quality Control of Agro-meteorological Data Measured at Suwon Weather Station of Korea Meteorological Administration (기상청 수원기상대 농업기상 관측요소의 품질관리)

  • Oh, Gyu-Lim;Lee, Seung-Jae;Choi, Byoung-Choel;Kim, Joon;Kim, Kyu-Rang;Choi, Sung-Won;Lee, Byong-Lyol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2015
  • In this research, we applied a procedure of quality control (QC) to the agro-meteorological data measured at the Suwon weather station of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The QC was conducted through six steps based on the KMA Real-time Quality control system for Meteorological Observation Data (RQMOD) and four steps based on the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) QC modules. In addition, we set up our own empirical method to remove erroneous data which could not be filtered by the RQMOD and ISMN methods. After all these QC procedures, a well-refined agro-meteorological dataset was complied at both air and soil temperatures. Our research suggests that soil moisture requires more detailed and reliable grounds to remove doubtful data, especially in winter with its abnormal variations. The raw data and the data after QC are now available at the NCAM website (http://ncam.kr/page/req/agri_weather.php).

Measurement and Quality Control of MIROS Wave Radar Data at Dokdo (독도 MIROS Wave Radar를 이용한 파랑관측 및 품질관리)

  • Jun, Hyunjung;Min, Yongchim;Jeong, Jin-Yong;Do, Kideok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2020
  • Wave observation is widely used to direct observation method for observing the water surface elevation using wave buoy or pressure gauge and remote-sensing wave observation method. The wave buoy and pressure gauge can produce high-quality wave data but have disadvantages of the high risk of damage and loss of the instrument, and high maintenance cost in the offshore area. On the other hand, remote observation method such as radar is easy to maintain by installing the equipment on the land, but the accuracy is somewhat lower than the direct observation method. This study investigates the data quality of MIROS Wave and Current Radar (MWR) installed at Dokdo and improve the data quality of remote wave observation data using the wave buoy (CWB) observation data operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We applied and developed the three types of wave data quality control; 1) the combined use (Optimal Filter) of the filter designed by MIROS (Reduce Noise Frequency, Phillips Check, Energy Level Check), 2) Spike Test Algorithm (Spike Test) developed by OOI (Ocean Observatories Initiative) and 3) a new filter (H-Ts QC) using the significant wave height-period relationship. As a result, the wave observation data of MWR using three quality control have some reliability about the significant wave height. On the other hand, there are still some errors in the significant wave period, so improvements are required. Also, since the wave observation data of MWR is different somewhat from the CWB data in high waves of over 3 m, further research such as collection and analysis of long-term remote wave observation data and filter development is necessary.

Evaluation of flash drought characteristics using satellite-based soil moisture product between North and South Korea (위성영상 기반 토양수분을 활용한 남북한의 돌발가뭄 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Hee-Jin;Nam, Won-Ho;Jason A. Otkin;Yafang Zhong;Xiang Zhang;Mark D. Svoboda
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.8
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    • pp.509-518
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    • 2024
  • Flash drought is a rapid-onset drought that occurs rapidly over a short period due to abrupt changes in meteorological and environmental factors. In this study, we utilized satellite-based soil moisture product from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2(AMSR2) ascending X-band to calculate the weekly Flash Drought Intensity Index (FDII). We also analyzed the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula over a 10-year period from 2013 to 2022. The analysis of monthly spatial distribution patterns of the irrigation period across the Korean Peninsula revealed significant variations. In North Korea (NK), a substantial increase in the rate of intensification (FD_INT) was observed due to the rapid depletion of soil moisture, whereas South Korea (SK) experienced a significant increase in drought severity (DRO_SEV). Additionally, regional time series analysis revealed that both FD_INT and DRO_SEV were significantly high in the Gangwon province of both NK and SK. The estimation of probability density by region revealed a clear difference in FD_INT between NK and SK, with SK showing a higher probability of severe drought occurrence primarily due to the high values of DRO_SEV. As a result, it is inferred that the occurrence frequency and damage of flash droughts in NK are higher than those in SK, as indicated by the higher density of large FDII values in the NK region. We analyzed the correlation between DRO_SEV and the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) across the Korean Peninsula and confirmed a positive correlation ranging from 0.4 to 0.6. It is concluded that analyzing overall drought conditions through the average drought severity holds high utility. These findings are expected to contribute to understanding the characteristics of flash droughts on the Korean Peninsula and formulating post-event response plans.

Association of Lifestyle with Blood Pressure (생활양식과 혈압의 관련성)

  • Joo, Ree;Chung, Jong-Hak
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.497-507
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the association of various lifestyle with blood pressure. The data were obtained from the individuals who got routine health examination in Department of Occupational Medicine, Yeungnam University Hospital from June to September, 1996. Among these people, we selected 130 cases of hypertensives (97 males, 33 females) and 150 normotensives(70 males, 80 females) and study was conducted. The authors collected the information of the risk factors related to hypertension such as age, family history of hypertension, fasting blood sugar, serum total cholesterol, alcohol consumption(g/week), smoking history, relative amount of salt intake (low, moderate, high), the frequency' of weekly meat consumption, BMI, daily coffee consumption(cups/day) and the frequency of regular exercise(frequency/week) through questionnaire and laboratory test. By simple analysis, BMI was significantly associated with hypertension in male(p<0.05), and the frequency of weekly meat consumption was significantly associated with hypertension in female(p<0.05). Using logistic regression model, elevated odds ratio was noted for fasting blood sugar, serum total cholesterol, family history of hypertension, alcohol consumption, salt intake and BMI, and reduced odds ratio was noted for coffee consumption and exercise in male but fasting blood sugar(odds ratio=1.022, 95% CI=1.000-1.044), family history in both of parents(odds ratio=3.301, 95% CI=1.864-4.738), salt intake(odds ratio=1.690, 95% CI=1.082-2.298) and BMI(odds ratio=1.204, 95% CI=1.065-1.343) were statistically significant(p<0.05). In female, elevated odds ratio was noted in serum total choles terol, family history of hypertension, BMI and meat consumption. Of all these variables, the family history of hypertension in either of parents(odds ratio=4.981, 95% CI=3.650-6.312), family history in both of parents(odds ratio=16.864, 95% CI=14.577-19.151), BMI(odds ratio=1.167, 95% CI=1.016-1.318) and meat consumption(odds ratio=2.045, 95% CI=1.133-2.963) showed statistically significant association with hypertension in female(p<0.05).

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The Spillover Effect of FDI on GDP -Analysis on Myanmar using GARCH and VAR- (외국인 직접투자의 국민소득에 대한 전이효과 -GARCH와 VAR를 이용한 분석-)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.41-63
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    • 2017
  • FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.