• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수정결정계수

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Prediction of damages induced by Snow using Multiple-linear regression and Artificial Neural Network model (다중선형회귀 및 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 대설피해에 따른 피해액 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Soon Ho;Lee, Eui Hoon;Chung, Gunhui;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.20-20
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    • 2017
  • 최근 기후변화 영향에 따라 전 세계적으로 인명피해 및 재산피해를 유발하는 자연재난이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 그로 인한 자연재해의 규모가 점점 더 커지고 있다. 실제로 우리나라에서도 지난 1994 년에서 2013 년까지 지난 20 년간 자연재해에 의한 피해액은 12조 3천억 원으로 집계되었으며, 이 중 강우와 태풍에 의한 피해가 85 % 이고, 대설에 의한 피해는 약 13 % 로 자연재해 중 대부분의 피해는 강우 및 태풍에서 발생하지만, 폭설에 의한 피해도 적지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라, 정확한 예측을 위해 신뢰도 높은 자료 구축을 통한 대설피해 예측에 관한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 대설피해액 예측을 위해 우리나라의 63개 기상 관측소에서 관측한 적설심 자료 및 기상관측 자료와 사회 경제 자료 총 11개를 대설피해 예측을 위한 입력변수로 선정하고, 이를 기상관측소가 속한 도시의 면적에 따라 3개의 지역으로 구분하였다. 주성분분석을 활용하여 선정된 입력변수들을 4개의 주성분으로 구분하고, 인공신경망 및 다중선형 회귀 모형을 구성하여 각 지역별 대설피해 예측의 오차를 분석하였다. 적용결과, 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 대설피해 예측의 수정결정계수는 22.8 %~48.2 %를 나타냈고, 다중선형회귀 모형의 수정결정 계수는 9.2 %~39.7% 로 나타났다. 그러므로 인공신경망 모형이 다중회귀 모형보다 선택된 입력자료를 활용하여 대설피해를 예측하는 목적으로 조금 더 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. 향후 자료를 보완 및 모형의 고도화를 통해 보다 정확한 대설피해 예측 함수 개발이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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Gradation Curve of Coarse Aggregate by Digital Image Analysis (디지털 이미지 처리 기법을 이용한 굵은골재의 입도분포곡선)

  • Lee, Kwan-Ho;Kim, Young-Jin;Hwang, Tak-Jin;Cho, Jae-Yoon
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this research is particle shape evaluation of aggregate using Digital Image Process(DIP). DIP is very useful to measure the roughness and particle shape of aggregates. Couple of aggregates, like standard sand, two different crushed stones, and two different marine aggregates, have been employed. Shape factors of two different marine aggregates are ranged 0.35 to 0.54. Crushed stone I is 0.74 which is highly flat, but standard sand is elongated shape. Especially, two marine aggregate showed a big difference of width and length which meaned a long shape. There is any significant difference of elongation ratio and flatness for each aggregate with different measuring system, like direct measurement of vernier calipers and DIP method. Shape conversion coefficient and equivalent diameter for changing 2D image to 3D image by the Digital Image Process(DIP) have been suggested and modified particle size distribution curve has been showed. The measured flatness ratios of each aggregate were 0.30, 0.36, 0.47 and 0.83, respectively. Also, the conversion shape coefficients of each aggregate were determinded as 0.77, 0.78, 0.84 and 0.92. The size of aggregate has been modified by multiplying the shape conversion coefficient and the aggregate size from DIP. The modified gradation curve with modified volume and weight of aggregate has been suggested. Within the limited test results, DIP is one of useful to get the particle shape of aggregate with limitation of measuring errors and to apply the particle distribution curve.

Synthesis op Daily Streamflow by Multilag Model (다차수모델에 의한 일류량의 추계학적 모의발생)

  • 엄태규;이순택
    • Water for future
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1981
  • This study attempts to examine and estabilish a simulation model from the stochastic analysis of daily streamflow. Daily streamflow records obstained at the main gauging stations along the Han, Nakdong and Geum River were used in the analysis. The following results were abtained. From the analysis of time series of streamflow by the correlogram and spectraal density, The serial component of one-year periodicity, serial correlation and irregular or random component were found. The coefficient of determination R2 of multilag model remaine a plateau at log-two, so that second order mu.ltilag model was Known to fit in the simulation of daily streamflow, Consequently, multilag and recised Markov model of the sewnd order give the best results in simulatin of daily streamflow. But the former generally gives better results than the latter. And theoretical markev model is unfit in the simulation of daily series without modification.

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Modified HAZUS Method for Seismic Fragility Assessment of Domestic PSC-I Girder Bridges (PSC-I 거더교의 지진취약도 평가를 위한 HAZUS 방법의 국내 적용성 연구)

  • Seo, Hyeong-Yeol;Yi, Jin-Hak;Kim, Doo-Kie;Song, Jong-Keol
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2010
  • To reduce the amount of seismic damage, several design codes are being improved considering the earthquake resistant systems, and many researches are being conducted to develop the earthquake damage evaluation techniques. This study develops the Korean seismic fragility function using the modified HAZUS method applicable to PSC-I girder bridges in Korea. The major coefficients are modified considering the difference between the seismic design levels of America and Korea. Seismic fragility function of the PSC-I girder bridge (one of the standard bridge types in Korea) is evaluated using two methods: numerical analysis and modified HAZUS method. The main coefficients are obtained about 70% of the proposed values in HAZUS. It is found that the seismic fragility function obtained using the modified HAZUS method closes to the fragility function obtained by conventional numerical analysis method.

Determination of Damping Modification Factor in RC Structures Due to Energy Absorption Efficiency (에너지 흡수효율에 의한 철근콘크리트 구조물의 감쇠비 수정계수 결정)

  • 김장훈;좌동훈
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.161-166
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    • 2002
  • The modification factor( k-factor) of equivalent damping ratio utilized in the current state-of-the-practice to account for the imperfection of reinforced concrete structures in hysteresis loop is investigated. From this, it is found that the current modification factor does not include the effect of cyclic loading, one of the important characteristic properties of earthquake loading. This could be taken into account by considering the energy absorption efficiency based on the cummulative plastic deformation. From the study, it is suggested that the current approach for the modification factor for the equivalent damping ratio should be reformed.

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Gradation Curve of Aggregate using Digital Image Process (디지털 이미지 처리 기법을 이용한 골재의 입도분포곡선)

  • Hwang, Tak-Jin;Cho, Jae-Yoon;Lee, Kwan-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2010
  • Shape conversion coefficient and equivalent diameter for changing 2D image to 3D image by the Digital Image Process(DIP) have been suggested and modified particle size distribution curve has been showed. Couple of aggregates, like two different marine aggregates and two different crushed stones, have been employed. The measured flatness ratios of each aggregate were 0.30, 0.36, 0.47 and 0.83, respectively. Also, the conversion shape coefficients of each aggregate were determinded as 0.77, 0.78, 0.84 and 0.92. The size of aggregate has been modified by multiplying the shape conversion coefficient and the aggregate size from DIP. The modified gradation curve with modified volume and weight of aggregate has been suggested. Within the limited test results, DIP is one of useful to get the particle shape of aggregate with limitation of measuring errors and to apply the particle distribution curve.

Evaluation of the Strength Required in Current Seismic Design Code (현행 내진설계 규준의 수평강도 요구에 대한 평가)

  • 한상환;오영훈;이리형
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.281-290
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    • 1997
  • Current seismic design code is based on the assumption that the designed structures would be behaved inelastically during a severe earthquake ground motion. For this reason, seismic design forces calculated by seismic codes are much lower than the forces generated by design earthquakes which makes structures responding elastically. Present procedures for calculating seismic design forces are based on the use of elastic spectra reduced by a strength reduction factors known as "response modificaion factor". Because these factors were determined empirically, it is difficult to know how much inelastic behaviors of the structures exhibit. In this study, lateral strength required to maintain target ductility ratio was first calculated from nonlinear dynamic analysis of the single degree of freedom system. At the following step, base shear foeces specified in seismic design code compare with above results. If the base shear force required to maintain target ductility ratio was higher than the code specified one, the lack of required strength should be filled by overstrength and/or redundancy. Therefore, overstrength of moment resisting frame structure will be estimated from the results of push-over analysis.

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The Study on the Determination of Level of Service of Signalized Intersection in KHCM and USHCM 2000 (한국 도로용량편람과 미국 HCM 2000의 신호교차로 서비스수준 결정에 관한 고찰)

  • 김성득;박창수;박원규
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2001
  • 신호교차로의 서비스수준은 미국의 HCM 방식을 전세계적으로 준용하고 있으며, 우리나라도 1985년 미국 HCM을 기본으로 하여 우리나라의 특성을 반영한 보정계수 값들을 수정하여 지금까지 사용하고 있는 것이 현실이다. 하지만 한국 도로용량편람의 모태가 된 미국 HCM은 이미 94년 1차 수정판에 이어, 이를 더욱 보완해서 HCM 2000을 발간하여 실용화 단계에 있는 반면 92년에 발간된 한국도로용량편람은 발간 이후 빠른 속도로 변화해온 국내의 교통, 도로, 차량 특성과 다양해진 도로시설 유형의 변화를 신호교차로 서비스수준 분석에 적절히 반영하지 못하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 신호교차로 서비스수준 결정에 관한 연구의 기초작업으로 기존의 신호교차로 서비스수준 분석방법의 문제점을 보완하기 위한 새로운 분석방법론을 제시하였다. 이를 위해 한국 도로용량 편람과 미국 HCM 2000의 서비스수준 분석방법론 부분을 면밀히 비교 분석하고 두 나라의 지체식에 포함된 공통적인 변수(주기(C), 포화도(v/c), 용량(c), 녹색시간비(g/C))에 대한 민감도 분석과 미국 HCM 2000에 추가로 도입된 변수들에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행함으로서 한국 도로용량 편람의 문제점을 고찰하고 운전자의 행태나 도로의 기하조건이 외국의 경우와는 다른 우리나라 실정을 반영한 한국형 신호 교차로 서비스수준 정립 방안의 필요성을 제시하였다.

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Modelling on the Carbonation Rate Prediction of Non-Transport Underground Infrastructures Using Deep Neural Network (심층신경망을 이용한 비운송 지중구조물의 탄산화속도 예측 모델링)

  • Youn, Byong-Don
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.220-227
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    • 2021
  • PCT (Power Cable Tunnel) and UT (Utility Tunnel), which are non-transport underground infrastructures, are mostly RC (Reinforced Concrete) structures, and their durability decreases due to the deterioration caused by carbonation over time. In particular, since the rate of carbonation varies by use and region, a predictive model based on actual carbonation data is required for individual maintenance. In this study, a carbonation prediction model was developed for non-transport underground infrastructures, such as PCT and UT. A carbonation prediction model was developed using multiple regression analysis and deep neural network techniques based on the actual data obtained from a safety inspection. The structures, region, measurement location, construction method, measurement member, and concrete strength were selected as independent variables to determine the dependent variable carbonation rate coefficient in multiple regression analysis. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) of the multiple regression model was found to be 0.67. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the model for predicting the carbonation of non-transport underground infrastructures using a deep neural network was 0.82, which was superior to the comparative prediction model. These results are expected to help determine the optimal timing for repair on carbonation and preventive maintenance methodology for PCT and UT.

Analysis of Electron Swarm Transport Coefficients by Collision Cross Section in Na-He Gas Mixtures (Na-He 혼합증기중에서 충돌단면적에 의한 전자군의 수송계수 해석)

  • 하성철;백수현
    • Electrical & Electronic Materials
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 1990
  • 볼츠만 수송방정식에 관한 홀스타인의 식을 사용하여 온도는 273.deg.K, 상대전계의 세기가 1.leq.E/P..leq.30(V/cm Torr)인 때의 Na와 He 단일기체중을 통과하는 전자의 에너지분포함수와 수송계수를 계산하였다. 그리고 전자 이동속도의 결과치를 실험값과 비교하였으며 실험치와 계산치가 일치하도록 충돌단면적을 수정하여 계산에 적용하였다. 이러한 방법으로 Hesms 0.1[eV]-50[eV]까지 Na는 0.1[eV]-5[eV]까지의 에너지범위에서 결정된 운동량변환단면적의 값은 제한된 범위에서 Crompton 및 Nakamura의 값과 거의 일치하였다. 또한 이와 같이하여 계산된 Na와 He 단일기체의 충돌단면적을 이용하여 온도는 273.degK, 상대전계의 세기는 1.leq.E/P$_{o}$ .leq.30(V/cm Torr)의 범위에서 Na-He 혼합증기의 혼합비율을 He:Na는 99.5:0.5, 99:1, 9:1. 1:1로 변화시켜 특성에너지, 평균에너지, 전자이동속도, 전자에너지 분포함수를 게산하였다.

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