• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수요패턴

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Development of the Power Consumption Simulator and Classification of the Types of Household by Using Data Mining Over Smart Grid (스마트 그리드 환경에서 가정의 소비전력 생성 시뮬레이터 개발 및 데이터 마이닝 기법을 이용한 가족 유형 분류)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Yun-Jin;Kim, Ho-Won
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.39C no.1
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 2014
  • Recently, because of irregular power demand, we have suffered from an electric power shortage. The necessity of the adoption of smart grid which makes effective supply of power by using the two-way communication across the grid between the customers and electric energy providers is growing more and more. If smart grid set up in our country, the third-parties which provide services to customer using the information acquired from smart grid, might be revved up. In this paper, we suggest a methodology how classify the types of family by analysing an power consumption pattern using data mining technique. To make a classifier for categorizing the household types, we need power consumption data and their family type. However, it is hard to get both of them. Therefore we develop the simulator that generates power consumption patterns of the household and classify the types of family. Also, we present a potential for application services such as customized services for a specific family or goods marketing.

PRT Application Study Using Corridor Analysis; Focused on Nan-Gok Area (축 분석법을 활용한 PRT 적용성 연구; 난곡지역을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jin-Sun;Kim, Kyoung-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.188-193
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    • 2011
  • In order to solve urban transportation problems, the various alternatives are presented to the public transportation system but the master plan of construction and operation is that there is no validity. PRT unlike other public transport system, is a new transport system that can respond appropriately, to solve the traffic demand, environmental and energy problems. Meanwhile, national and international PRT system was not commercially and the actual construction and operation of the PRT in case of base research is not well established. In this paper, PRT concept was established as the new transportation system, the target area(Nan-gok area) was selected to examine the feasibility of PRT systems and the corridor analysis method has been developed to predict the PRT demand as a basic material of planning process.

GP Modeling of Nonlinear Electricity Demand Pattern based on Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 비선형 전력수요 패턴 GP 모델링)

  • Kim, Yong-Gil
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2021
  • The emergence of the automated smart grid has become an essential device for responding to these problems and is bringing progress toward a smart grid-based society. Smart grid is a new paradigm that enables two-way communication between electricity suppliers and consumers. Smart grids have emerged due to engineers' initiatives to make the power grid more stable, reliable, efficient and safe. Smart grids create opportunities for electricity consumers to play a greater role in electricity use and motivate them to use electricity wisely and efficiently. Therefore, this study focuses on power demand management through machine learning. In relation to demand forecasting using machine learning, various machine learning models are currently introduced and applied, and a systematic approach is required. In particular, the GP learning model has advantages over other learning models in terms of general consumption prediction and data visualization, but is strongly influenced by data independence when it comes to prediction of smart meter data.

Analysis of the Recall Demand Pattern of Imported Cars and Application of ARIMA Demand Forecasting Model (수입자동차 리콜 수요패턴 분석과 ARIMA 수요 예측모형의 적용)

  • Jeong, Sangcheon;Park, Sohyun;Kim, Seungchul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2020
  • This research explores how imported automobile companies can develop their strategies to improve the outcome of their recalls. For this, the researchers analyzed patterns of recall demand, classified recall types based on the demand patterns and examined response strategies, considering plans on how to procure parts and induce customers to visit workshops, recall execution capacity and costs. As a result, recalls are classified into four types: U-type, reverse U-type, L- type and reverse L-type. Also, as determinants of the types, the following factors are further categorized into four types and 12 sub-types of recalls: the height of maximum demand, which indicates the volatility of recall demand; the number of peaks, which are the patterns of demand variations; and the tail length of the demand curve, which indicates the speed of recalls. The classification resulted in the following: L-type, or customer-driven recall, is the most common type of recalls, taking up 25 out of the total 36 cases, followed by five U-type, four reverse L-type, and two reverse U-type cases. Prior studies show that the types of recalls are determined by factors influencing recall execution rates: severity, the number of cars to be recalled, recall execution rate, government policies, time since model launch, and recall costs, etc. As a component demand forecast model for automobile recalls, this study estimated the ARIMA model. ARIMA models were shown in three models: ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (0,0,1) and ARIMA (0,0,0). These all three ARIMA models appear to be significant for all recall patterns, indicating that the ARIMA model is very valid as a predictive model for car recall patterns. Based on the classification of recall types, we drew some strategic implications for recall response according to types of recalls. The conclusion section of this research suggests the implications for several aspects: how to improve the recall outcome (execution rate), customer satisfaction, brand image, recall costs, and response to the regulatory authority.

Comparison Between Travel Demand Forecasting Results by Using OD and PA Travel Patterns for Future Land Developments (장래 개발계획에 의한 추가 통행량 분석시 OD 패턴적용과 PA 패턴적용의 분석방법 비교)

  • Kim, Ikki;Park, Sang Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-124
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    • 2015
  • The KOTI(Korea Transport Institute) released the new version of KTDB(Korea Transport DataBase) in public. The new KTDB is different from the past KTDB in using the concept of trip generation and trip attraction instead of using the concept of Origin-Destination (OD), which was used in the past KTDB. Thus, the appropriate analysis method for future travel demand became necessary for the new type of KTDB. The method should be based on the concept of PA(Production-Attraction). This study focused on analysis of trip generation and trip distribution related to newly generated trips by future land developments. The study also described clearly the standardized forecasting process and methods with PA travel tables. The study showed that the analysis results with OD-based analysis can be different from the results with PA-based analysis in forecasting travel demand for a simple example case even though they used exactly same orignal travel data. Therefore, this study emphasized that a proper method should be applied with the new PA-based KTDB. It is necessary to prepare and disseminate guidelines of the proper forecasting method and application with PA-based travel data for practician.

Estimation of Optimal Fare for Cloud Transportation System (클라우드교통시스템의 최적 요금 산정)

  • Ryu, Seong Beom;Bae, Sang Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1969-1980
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    • 2013
  • The Traffic congestion is caused by the increasing traffic demand. Thus, economic losses have been increasing every year. To solve these problems, car sharing and rental car systems that are equipped with IT technologies emerge. Car sharing has many advantages-the alleviation of the traffic congestion, the saving of maintenance cost for cars, the reduction of car possessiveness, the solution for the hassle of car ownership, for business and personal duty, and the improvement of connectivity between public transportations-. The goal of the car sharing is to achieve low-carbon and eco-friendly transportation. In this study, we review papers related to the car sharing system and the cost system of traffic systems. We estimate the optimal cost of the cloud traffic system that is one of the car sharing services. We suggest a methodology to estimate operational cost and use cost through the analysis of cost system between similar traffic means. The range of the maximum and minimum cost was determined through the comparison and analysis of similar traffic means. Expected demand and the cost that people are willing to pay were estimated through optimized value pricing. The minimum cost per hour that was compared to the cost of rental car was estimated at 5,333 won and the maximum cost per hour that was compared to taxi cost was estimated at 17,700 won. The cost for users was estimated at 6,930 won. The cost of 50% demands was estimated at 6,550won. Future studies should analyze service hours of users, weather, demand pattern and trend and consider them into the cost estimation.

Short-term Peak Power Demand Forecasting using Model in Consideration of Weather Variable (기상 변수를 고려한 모델에 의한 단기 최대전력수요예측)

  • 고희석;이충식;최종규;지봉호
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2001
  • BP neural network model and multiple-regression model were composed for forecasting the special-days load. Special-days load was forecasted using that neural network model made use of pattern conversion ratio and multiple-regression made use of weekday-change ratio. This methods identified the suitable as that special-days load of short and long term was forecasted with the weekly average percentage error of 1∼2[%] in the weekly peak load forecasting model using pattern conversion ratio. But this methods were hard with special-days load forecasting of summertime. therefore it was forecasted with the multiple-regression models. This models were used to the weekday-change ratio, and the temperature-humidity and discomfort-index as explanatory variable. This methods identified the suitable as that compared forecasting result of weekday load with forecasting result of special-days load because months average percentage error was alike. And, the fit of the presented forecast models using statistical tests had been proved. Big difficult problem of peak load forecasting had been solved that because identified the fit of the methods of special-days load forecasting in the paper presented.

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An Activity-Based Analysis of Contextual Information of Activity Patterns and Profiles (활동기반 접근법에 의한 활동패턴의 맥락적 정보분석과 프로파일)

  • Jo, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.171-183
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    • 2007
  • Urban transport demand is derived from activity participation. A variety of individual daily activities based on the decisions on activity participation result in collective spatial behavior. The travel derived from the effort to overcome the spatially distributed locations of adjacent activities represents the detailed structural relationships among activities. An activity-based approach provides an important framework of analyzing contemporary urban daily life in the sense that it studies the interaction between individuals' daily decision making and social practice in time and space, on the one hand, and socio-spatial environment on the other. The current study identifies representative patterns of urban daily activity implementations and analyzes the correlation between representative patterns and individuals' characteristics and contextual characteristics. The study shows that urban daily activity patterns can be grouped in a limited number of representative patterns, which are systematically correlated with socio-spatial characteristics. The results provide related transportation policy implications.

Speech Recognition of the Korean Vowel 'ㅗ' Based on Time Domain Waveform Patterns (시간 영역 파형 패턴에 기반한 한국어 모음 'ㅗ'의 음성 인식)

  • Lee, Jae Won
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.583-590
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the rapidly increasing interest in IoT in almost all areas of casual human life has led to wide acceptance of speech recognition as a means of HCI. Simultaneously, the demand for speech recognition systems for mobile environments is increasing rapidly. The server-based speech recognition systems are typically fast and show high recognition rates; however, an internet connection is necessary, and complicated server computation is required since a voice is recognized by units of words that are stored in server databases. In this paper, we present a novel method for recognizing the Korean vowel 'ㅗ', as a part of a phoneme based Korean speech recognition system. The proposed method involves analyses of waveform patterns in the time domain instead of the frequency domain, with consequent reduction in computational cost. Elementary algorithms for detecting typical waveform patterns of 'ㅗ' are presented and combined to make final decisions. The experimental results show that the proposed method can achieve 89.9% recognition accuracy.

Differences in Angle of the Lower Extremities and Electromyography of Elderly Women Experienced a Fall (낙상경험 여성노인의 하지 분절 각도와 근전도 차이)

  • Jeon, Kyoung-Kyu;Park, Kwang-Dong;Park, Se-Hwan;Kang, Young-Seok;Kim, Dae-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analyzed the coordination of lower limb of elderly women who experienced a fall to present basic information for sports science and to deal with the factors that make elderly women fall more effectively. Twenty elderly women were divided into two groups of 10. The mechanisms of balancing lower limb during walk and differences were compared and analyzed using motion analysis and electromyography. The findings of this study are as follows. The first, walking patterns of these women were unstable as their hip joints did not provide sufficient support because of aging. Second, the left and right knee joints showed different walking patterns. The third, the motions of ankle joints became abnormal with increased age. As for the activation of major lower limb muscles, rectus fermois muscle and biceps fermois muscle contracted more to prevent the bending of knees and moved forward while anterior tibial muscle and inner gastrocnemius muscle were demanded highly during walk and the rate of plantar flexion was reduced.