• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수요변동

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Analysis of the Korean Housing Market Mechanisms and Housing Sales Policies Using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 분양 제도 변화에 따른 주택 시장 영향 분석)

  • Park, Moon-Seo;Ahn, Chang-Bum;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sung-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2009
  • From the beginning of 2000, Korean housing market has experienced cyclical volatility because of the global economic fluctuation such as steady decline in the interest rate and the house price bubble. In response to these state Korean Government announced policies about housing sales system kinds of Sales Unit Price Restraint and Post-Sales System to stabilize housing market. But such policies has brought unprecedented arguments both for and against, most of whom still seem to stick to self-centered judgement ahead of impact on housing market. In an integrated point of view, applying the system dynamics modeling, the paper aims at proposing basic Korean housing market dynamics models based on basis principles of housing market determined by supply and demand. And then, after research policies about housing sales system, analyze Impact on Korean Housing Market by change of Sales Systems applying policies to basic Korean housing market dynamics models.

Sustainable Coffee Program and its Achievement in Vietnam (베트남의 지속가능한 커피 프로그램과 그 성과)

  • Lee, Sang Yool
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.343-359
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    • 2016
  • The coffee price from the farm-gate level has been quite unstable in recent years because of the expansion of coffee cultivation, and the volatility of coffee price in the world market. The preference toward consumer's sustainable coffee has influenced on the coffee purchase by the world major coffee companies. With this background, Vietnam began to follow the trend of sustainable coffee cultivation by the major coffee export companies which cooperate with some certification authorities. However, a proposed program called 'Sustainable Coffee Program' in 2012 was initiated as public-private cooperation. This study attempts to examine how the program was initiated, and which organizations were involved in practice level, and what the program have achieved for sustainability. Finally, non-participant group was also considered on how they have been influenced from the existence of the 'sustainable coffee program' in direct and indirect manners.

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자동차 ALC에 대응하는 Job Shop의 동기화 생산시스템에 관한 연구

  • 권보식;김경섭
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.100-100
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    • 1997
  • 본 연구에서는 우리 자동차산업이 직면한 총체적인 위기상황을 극복하기 위한 방 안으로, 자동차 생산방식의 변혁, 인적자원관리의 혁신을 통한 생산성 제고, 독자 기술개발 능력의 조기확보, 효율적인 부품조달체제의 형성 등 산업전반에 걸친 혁신으로, 내적인 경 쟁력을 축적함과 동시에, 지역주의화의 진전에 따른 수출 여건의 악화를 극복하기 위해 선 진권 및 개발도상국으로의 현지화 노력이 적극적으로 추진되지 않으면 안될, 중대한 시점에 와 있다고 진단하면서, 본 연구의 목적을, 생산현장을 중심으로 한 내적 경쟁력 확보로 정 의하고, 그 실현방안으로서, 급변하는 시장환경에 적극 대응하기 위한 생산방식의 도입과, 이를 지원하는 생산정보시스템의 구축 모델을 제시하고자 한다. 첫 번째는, 변화가 급격한 시장환경에 적극 대응하는 생산방식의 도입으로, 철저한 낭비 배제 사상 - 생산현장의 낭비 소요를 배제(개선)하는 것만이 아니라 배제하고 바로 체계를 바꾸어 (개혁) 원래의 상태로 되돌아가지 않도록 하는 -을 기본으로, 정보, 관리, 생산, 제품, 물류 등에 관련된 손실 비 용을 감축시킴으로서 원가를 낮추고, 고객이 요구하는 다양하고, 좋은 품질이 제품을 신속 히 공급할 수 있는 체계를 갖추는 것이다. 이러한 낭비 배제 사상은 생산현장에서 필요한 것을, 필요한 때에, 필요한 만큼 만들고 운반하며 전달하는 관리 개선 등을 의미하며, 이것 을 적은 인원 및 설비로 최대한 빨리 (리드 타임의 단축), 계획대로 수행하도록 하는 것이 동기화 생산방식이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 자동차 생산공정 중 주 조립공정의 ALC(Assembly Line Control)에 대응하여, 선행 공정으로서 부품을 공급하는 Job Shop의 동기화 생산방식을 실제 적용한 사례 중심으로 전개하고자 한다. 두 번째의 접근방식은, 동 기화 생산방식에 컴퓨터 통합생산 (CIM, Computer Integrated Manufacturing)의 기술을 구 현, 적용하는 것이다. 즉, 동기화 생산 시스템 (SPS, Syncronized Production Sytem)을 구 축하는 것인데, 이것은 최신의 컴퓨터 기술을 생산현장에 적용함으로써 새로운 생산방식의 혁신에 버금가는 기술혁신이라 할 수 있을 것이다. 따라서, 이러한 접근은 컴퓨터 및 통신 기술의 눈부신 발전을 기초로 가능해진 것인데, 제조업에서의 심각한 고비용, 저효율 문제 를 해결하기 위해 필수적으로 도입해야만 하는 실정이다. 또한 소비자의 다양한 요구로 인 하여 제품의 종류와 사양면에서 심한 변동을 보이는 시장 수요에, 신속한 정보처리로 대응 하는데도 크게 기여하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는, 자동차 Job Shop의 동기화 생산방식을 지원하는 동기화 생산시스템의 구축 모델을 제시하고자 한다.

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A Study on the Development of the New Technology Valuation System using Case-Based Reasoning (사례기반추론을 이용한 신기술 가치평가 시스템개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Ki-Nam
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.103-116
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    • 2004
  • It is needed to transfer the technology actively which has already developed to improve a up-to-date technology and foster the technological innovation. The technology transfer also can bring about a commercial success. To promote the technology transfer, it is needed to develop a new technology valuation model for a specific technology from a objective point of view, as well as to equip an institution such as the technology transfer center. The technology valuation from a objective point of view is of importance as the basic information for the price negotiation between a technology-buyer and a technology-seller. This paper takes aim at investigating a new technology valuation model and developing a technology valuation system for promoting the technology transfer. A new technology valuation system is developed as a web-enabling base. Using this users are able to estimate the value of specific technology on a real time efficiently.

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Robustness Estimation for Power and Water Supply Network : in the Context of Failure Propagation (피해파급에 대한 고찰을 통한 전력 및 상수도 네트워크의 강건성 예측)

  • Lee, Seulbi;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2018
  • In the aftermath of an earthquake, seismic-damaged infrastructure systems loss estimation is the first step for the disaster response. However, lifeline systems' ability to supply service can be volatile by external factors such as disturbances of nearby facilities, and not by own physical issue. Thus, this research develops the bayesian model for probabilistic inference on common-cause and cascading failure of seismic-damaged lifeline systems. In addition, the authors present network robustness estimation metrics in the context of failure propagation. In order to quantify the functional loss and observe the effect of the mitigation plan, power and water supply system in Daegu-Gyeongbuk in South Korea is selected as case network. The simulation results show that reduction of cascading failure probability allows withstanding the external disruptions from a perspective of the robustness improvement. This research enhances the comprehensive understanding of how a single failure propagates to whole lifeline system performance and affected region after an earthquake.

Forecasting of Iron Ore Prices using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 철광석 가격 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Woo Chang;Kim, Yang Sok;Kim, Jung Min;Lee, Choong Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2020
  • The price of iron ore has continued to fluctuate with high demand and supply from many countries and companies. In this business environment, forecasting the price of iron ore has become important. This study developed the machine learning model forecasting the price of iron ore a one month after the trading events. The forecasting model used distributed lag model and deep learning models such as MLP (Multi-layer perceptron), RNN (Recurrent neural network) and LSTM (Long short-term memory). According to the results of comparing individual models through metrics, LSTM showed the lowest predictive error. Also, as a result of comparing the models using the ensemble technique, the distributed lag and LSTM ensemble model showed the lowest prediction.

Development of water use flow estimation method according to temporal flow variation for securing available water (가용수량 확보를 위한 이수유량의 기간별 산정 방법 개발)

  • Lee, Eul Rae;Choi, Hyun Gu;Kim, Han Na;Lim, Ji Sang;Lee, Sul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.252-252
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    • 2017
  • 지금까지 이수유량의 산정은 공급의 안정성을 보장하고자 보수적인 관리체계를 유지해왔다. 시공간적 하천유량의 변동에도 최대 용수수요를 만족할 수 있게끔 기준갈수량을 기준으로 이수유량을 산정하였다. 이는 공급의 안정성은 보장되나 연중 동일 기준을 적용하여 홍수기와 같이 물량이 많은 경우에 있어서 추가적인 유량사용이 불가능하였다. 이에 따라 기존 방법의 단점을 보완하고 시 공간적인 하천유량의 변화를 고려하여 가용수량을 확보하며 물사용 효율성을 증대시킬 수 있는 방안 모색이 필요하다. 이에 선행 연구인 시 공간적 유량변화를 반영한 탄력적인 하천수 사용허가 기준유량 설정방법에서는 홍수기/이수기, 관개기/비관개기를 고려하여 4개의 기간 구분하였다. 본 연구에서는 이수기/홍수기 구분을 제외하고 시기별 변화가 큰 농업용수 사용 시기를 기준으로 관개기/비관개기만을 고려하여 이수 유량의 산정방안을 검토하였으며, 이를 통해 각 기간별로 안정적인 공급이 가능한 기준유량 산정방법을 제시하여 기존의 방법을 개선하고자 한다. 위방법론을 적용한 결과, 기간별 탄력적인 기준유량의 산정으로 수량확보시설을 설치하지 않고 관리기준을 변경하는 것만으로 금호강 유역에서는 약 56.6백만$m^3$/년, 내성천 유역에서는 약 43.4백만$m^3$/년의 유량을 확보 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 추가적인 인프라를 구축하지 않고 관리기준을 변경하는 것만으로 가용유량의 추가 확보가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. 탄력적 이수유량 산정 방법을 통해 확보된 수량은 신규 수원 확보 사업의 추진 및 이를 위한 예산 확보 등의 정책적인 어려움을 개선할 수 있는 방안으로 될 수 있으며, 또한 용수공급 안정도를 유지하면서 하천수의 효율적인 활용에도 기여할 수 있다.

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Real-Estate Price Prediction in South Korea via Machine Learning Modeling (머신러닝 기법을 통한 대한민국 부동산 가격 변동 예측)

  • Nam, Sanghyun;Han, Taeho;Kim, Leeju;Lee, Eunji
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the real estate is of high interest. This is because real estate, which was considered only a residential environment in the past, is recognized as a stable investment target due to the ever-growing demand on it. In particular, in the case of the domestic market, despite the decrease in the number of people, the number of single-person households and the influx of people to large cities are accelerating, and real estate prices are rising sharply around the metropolitan area. Therefore, accurately predicting the prospects of the future real estate market becomes a very important issue not only for individual asset management but also for government policy establishment. In this paper, we developed a program to predict future real estate market prices by learning past real estate sales data using machine learning techniques. The data on the market price of real estate provided by the Korea Appraisal Board and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport were used, and the average sales price forecast for 2022 by region is presented. The developed program is publicly available so that it could be used in various forms.

The Analysis of the Potential Effects of Energy Conversion Policy Considering Environment (환경을 고려한 에너지 전환정책의 잠재적 효과분석)

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.325-345
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we empirically evaluate the potential performance of energy conversion policy and analyze its effects on power generation sector. We first examine the degree of substitutability between energy inputs by measuring the price elasticities of energy demands and then estimate the changes in CO2 generation when the proportions of nuclear power plants and renewable power generation are increased. The shadow prices of nuclear power and renewable energy are calculated to compare the potential costs of power generation between the two energy sources. We analyze the impacts of the expansion of nuclear power plants and renewable power generation on power supply price. Nuclear and renewable energy were measured to be complementary to each other. The expansion of nuclear power plants has been more effective in reducing CO2 emissions than increasing renewable power generation. In most years over 2002 to 2016, the impact of nuclear power expansion on the power supply price was generally higher than that of renewable power generation, with relatively large range of fluctuations.

Classification of Black Soybean Collections in Korea (수집 검정콩의 품종군 분류)

  • Kim, Su-Kyeong;Kim, Dae-Ho;Son, Beom-Young;Kang, Dong-Ju;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.202-213
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    • 1997
  • In order to find out a high potential black soybean lines, of which demand has been increasing in Korea, twenty eight local cultivars were evaluated on agronomic characteristics and the classification of the cultivars was made by the cluster analysis. Days to maturity and days to growing of black soybeans were widely ranged from 58 to 82 days, and 117 to 148 days, respectively. Late maturing group showed over 140 maturity days, and heavy 100 seed weight. There was shown low yield potential in late maturing group, and growing days was positively correlated with flowering days, days to maturity, 100-seed weight and stem length, respectively. From the principal component analysis upper two components composed 76.5% cumulative eigen value to total. Nine varietal groups were identified in relations to their affinity of the black soybeans. Selected black soybeans, Namhae-2 and Hamyang-l were field-tested and those characteristics of many pod, small seed and high yield were found out to be suitable for sprouting.

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