Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Robustness Estimation for Power and Water Supply Network : in the Context of Failure Propagation

피해파급에 대한 고찰을 통한 전력 및 상수도 네트워크의 강건성 예측

  • Lee, Seulbi (Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Moonseo (Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyun-Soo (Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2017.10.19
  • Accepted : 2017.12.20
  • Published : 2018.05.31
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Abstract

In the aftermath of an earthquake, seismic-damaged infrastructure systems loss estimation is the first step for the disaster response. However, lifeline systems' ability to supply service can be volatile by external factors such as disturbances of nearby facilities, and not by own physical issue. Thus, this research develops the bayesian model for probabilistic inference on common-cause and cascading failure of seismic-damaged lifeline systems. In addition, the authors present network robustness estimation metrics in the context of failure propagation. In order to quantify the functional loss and observe the effect of the mitigation plan, power and water supply system in Daegu-Gyeongbuk in South Korea is selected as case network. The simulation results show that reduction of cascading failure probability allows withstanding the external disruptions from a perspective of the robustness improvement. This research enhances the comprehensive understanding of how a single failure propagates to whole lifeline system performance and affected region after an earthquake.

손상된 라이프라인 시스템의 공공서비스 제공 지연 예측은 지진 대응 체계 마련의 첫 단계이다. 그러나 라이프라인 시스템의 서비스제공가능도는 개별 구조물의 물리적 손상뿐만 아니라 인접한 구조물들로부터의 피해파급에 의해 변동될 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 라이프라인 시스템의 기능 저하를 유발하는 공통원인피해와 연쇄피해의 발생 확률을 추론하기 위해 베이지안 모형을 작성하고 피해의 인과관계를 고려하여 최종 수요자 중심의 네트워크 강건성을 평가하는 방안을 제시하였다. 또한 완화대책에 따른 네트워크 강건성을 분석하기 위해 국내 대구경북지역의 전력 및 상수도 시스템을 대상으로 지진 규모에 따른 공공서비스의 공급 지연 확률을 예측하였다. 그 결과 사례 지역의 경우 안정적인 전력과 상수 수급을 위해 라이프라인 네트워크를 구성하는 노드들 간 피해파급을 저감하는 것이 효과적임을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 지진 피해 진단의 다양한 불확실성 간 인과관계를 도식화하였다는 데에 의의가 있으며, 지속 가능한 공공서비스 확보를 위한 지역단위 대책 수립을 지원할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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