• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.479-492
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of regional characteristics on population movement on the Seoul metropolitan areas. Method: To this end, 66 basic entities in the Seoul metropolitan area were divided into three regions by analyzing the demographic movement data from 2010 to 2016 and the factors for determining population movement within and between regions were identified by applying a stepwise regression technique. Result: The major analysis confirmed that the increase in the number of apartments in all areas of the Seoul metropolitan area, the increase in the number of single-family homes, the increase in the number of employees, the increase in manufacturers, the growth rate of knowledge, culture, and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations. In particular, the growth rate of the number of apartments, the growth rate of the knowledge, culture and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations played a positive role in increasing population inflow. Conclusion: The result showed that by region, the growth rate of knowledge, culture and leisure industries contributed greatly to the inflow of population in the first region, and that the opening of new subway stations and the increase of GRDPs were the main factors. The increase in the number of apartments and subway stations were the main factors in the three areas.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.221-232
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• 2014

초고령화된 한국 농촌에서 다양한 교육 및 직업 배경을 가진 중장년층 귀농인구의 유입은 고령화 문제에 대한 대안의 하나로 부각되고 있다. 본 연구는 농가 고령화에 대한 귀농인구의 잠재적인 기여도 측면에서 귀농인구의 지역별 유입 유출 패턴을 분석하였다. 분석에는 로그선형모형과 총합레퍼런스코딩을 사용하였고, 분석자료는 통계청의 2013년 귀농 통계이다. 분석결과에 의하면, 귀농인의 절반 정도가 수도권에서 비수도권 지역으로 이주한 인구이고, 이들을 제외하면 귀농인의 대부분은 원 거주지가 있던 도 내에서 이동하고 있다. 귀농인의 귀농 전 대비 귀농 후 지역 내 오즈비(odds ratio)는 지역별로 차이가 있으며, 귀농인의 성별과 연령에 따라서도 지역별 유입 유출패턴이 다르다. 이는 귀농인 유입의 긍정적 효과를 높이기 위해서는 지자체별 차이를 반영한 특화된 정책이 필요하다는 것을 의미한다.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.1-16
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• 2023

In 2005, the selection of 10 innovation cities was completed, and since 2013, public institutions began relocating to innovation cities. As a policy aimed at promoting balanced regional development, there were significant expectations from the regions. However, although the population moving to innovation cities has increased, it remains to be seen how much inflow is from the capital region and what spatial characteristics exist nationwide. Therefore, this study aims to analyze whether the innovation cities are fulfilling their roles by examining the patterns of inflow from the capital region and the spatial characteristics, and to reassess the policy direction for future innovation cities. We utilized the Microdata Integrated Service (MDIS) provided by Statistics Korea from 2013 to 2021. For the data collection reasons, we focused on analyzing the three cities. The results showed that in the initial stages of innovation city development, there was a significant influx of population from the capital region, leading to some effects on population dispersion and balanced regional development. However, over time, a phenomenon emerged where more people started to move back to the capital region, indicating a problematic trend. Furthermore, the Gyeongbuk Innovation City and Gwangju-Jeonnam Innovation City showed similarities in terms of reasons for migration, age of householder, and number of household members. However, the Gyeongnam Innovation City exhibited distinct characteristics compared to the other two cities. While the reasons for this phenomenon may be diverse, the current situation suggests that the goal of achieving "balanced national development" has reached its limits. Therefore, urgent measures need to be taken for improvement that take regional characteristics into account. Furthermore, in designing the second phase of the public institution relocation plan is required to avoid repeating the same issues and ensure a more thoughtful approach.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.213-214
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• 2017

최근 일부 도심 지역에서 중산층이 특정지역으로 몰리며 원래의 거주자를 밀어내는 젠트리피케이션 현상과 주거비용 상승으로 인하여 도심에서 농촌으로 이동하는 유턴현상이 일어나고 있다. 이러한 이유로, 서울의 인구는 2016년 기준 28년 만에 천만 명이 붕괴되었다. 서울의 감소된 인구는 자연스럽게 수도권 외곽이나, 지방으로 분산되었고, 지자체의 인구가 초고령화로 나아가는 현재의 상황에서 지역사회에 도시민과 자본의 유입은 균형 있는 지방자치에 한 걸음 다가갈 수 있는 방법으로 활용 가능하다. 이와 같은 배경으로 풍부한 관광 자원과 지리적 이점 등을 이용하여 자본의 유입이 많을 것으로 예상되는 강화도 지역에 대해 강릉 카페거리 사례를 바탕으로 젠트리피케이션 모델을 검토 하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.91-106
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• 2024

Around the world, many countries experiencing the issue of shrinking cities are continually expanding high-speed rail networks to enhance regional accessibility and address imbalances. This study analyzed the effects of high-speed train operations on the age-specific population migration in South Korean municipalities from 2012 to 2019, taking into account the risk levels of shrinking cities. For this purpose, an analysis was conducted using age-specific net in-migration population as the dependent variable, employing the spatial panel autoregressive model. The research results indicated that the influence of high-speed rail on regional population inflow varies depending on the risk level of shrinking city. In other words, high-speed railway operations had positive effects on population inflow in the capital areas and some major cities, while explained population outflow in the other regions. High-speed railways particularly exerted a significant impact on the inflow of the young and middle-aged population, representing the working age, but this effect was also limited to regions with a low risk of shrinkage. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of considering planned population and industrial attraction when installing high-speed rail with the goal of achieving regional balanced development and mitigating shrinkage. The results of this study also suggest the need for subsequent research to explore factors that positively influence population structure and inflow based on the level of shrinkage risk in each region, as well as the introduction of new policies tailored to the specific situations of each local government.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.914-929
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• 2007

This study analyzes the accessibility patterns for commuting trips in Seoul Metropolitan Area using National Census Data between 1990 and 2000. the results show that the accessibility increased between 1990 and 1995, while it decreased between 1995 and 2000, due to the raised commuting time. Seoul, Kangju, Yeuju, Yangpyoung, Gapyoung show relatively high accessibility. The GINI parameters tell that the regional balance for commuting accessibility were worsen between 1990 and 1995, compared to that between 1995 and 2000. The accessibility patterns for commuting to Seoul were also analyzed and the result shows that the accessibility reduced between 1995 and 2000. Kwachun, Kwangju, Sungnum are found to have very high accessibility to Seoul, which is close to Soeoul with high percentage of incoming commuting trips. These results indicate that even continuous transport infrastructure supplies were not enough to solve the congestion problems for commuting trips in Seoul Metropolitan Area because of the induced traffic and traffic congestion.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.55-68
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• 2018

This paper aims to analyze the changes of the population distribution of metropolitan area by the development of the new town-type innovative city, focusing on the case of the Daegu Innovative City. Using dataset in the survey of population trend and the migration statistics microdata provided by the Statistics Korea, we decomposed population changes of Daegu and surrounding regions into natural increase and social increases(net migration). As a result of the analysis, Dong-gu, where the Daegu Innovation City is located, experienced population growth due to its increase of net migration, whereas the total population in Daegu been decreasing continuously between 2007 and 2016. In particular, the occurrence of high net migration to Dong-gu in 2014 showed a pattern consistent with the completion of the Daegu Innovative City development and the relocation of government institutions from the Seoul metro area. As a result of analyzing the migration to Dong-gu, the population moved from the Seoul metro area was 6.9% of the total, while the population moving from the other 7 gu-gun areas in Daegu (35.8%) and the surrounding regions (8.2%) were significantly high. In particular, the migration to Dong-gu were from neighboring areas, such as Suseong-gu, Buk-gu and Gyeongsan-si. Therefore, the development of the new town-type innovative city could accelerate toward sprawling urban structure.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.47-59
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• 2021

This study aims to review the trends of the population outflows in the metropolitan area of Busan and to investigate the factors that affect population out-migration to the Seoul metropolitan area. The following variables are considered for analysis: traditional population movement variables and quality of life variables, such as population, society, employment, housing, culture, safety, medical care, greenery, education, and childcare. The 'domestic population movement data', provided by the MDIS of the National Statistical Office, was used for this research. Out of the total of 57 million population movement data in the period 2012 - 2017, population outmigration from Busan to the Seoul metropolitan area was extracted. Independent variables were drawn from public data sources in accordance with the temporal and spatial settings of the study. The multiple linear regression model was specified based on the dataset, and the fit of the model was measured by the p-value, and the values of Adjusted R2, Durbin-Watson analysis, and F-statistics. The results of the analysis showed that the variables that have a significant effect on population movement from Busan to the Seoul metropolitan area were as follows: 'single-person households', 'the elderly population', 'the total birth rate', 'the number of companies', 'the number of employees', 'the housing sales price index', 'cultural facilities', and 'the number of students per teacher'. More positive (+) influences of the population out-movement were observed in areas with higher numbers of single-person households, lowers proportions of the elderly, lower numbers of businesses, higher numbers of employees, higher numbers of housing sales, lower numbers of cultural facilities, and lower numbers of students. The findings suggest that policies should enhance the environments such as quality jobs, culture, and welfare that can retain young people within Busan. Improvements in the quality of life and job creation are critical factors that can mitigate the outflows of the Busan residents to the Seoul metropolitan area.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.390-404
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• 2014

This study analysed the job-housing balance using the number of employees and workers data, and investigated the relationship between job-housing ratio and commuting trip in the Seoul metropolitan area. Between 2005-2010, in the central business district which functioned as urban center, the number of employees were reduced and population growth slowed. Meanwhile, the suburbanization of employment and population has advanced as the employment and population moved from Seoul to Gyeonggi-do. As the increasement of workers compared to the employees became prominent, the excess workers increased significantly. The size of excess workers acted as a factor which reduced the job-housing ratio. Job-housing imbalance worsened in Gyeonggi-do especially. While in many regions, job-housing imbalance improved in clerical, sales, and professional job sectors, but in some regions, the job-housing imbalance worsened in simple labor job and service job sectors. The number of jobs which job-housing imbalance was eased increased in the employment center. The more the job-housing ratio is high, the lower the degree of self-sufficiency of commuting trip and the proportion of internal commuters. In business centers where the number of employees exceed the number of workers, the job-housing ratio and the proportion of commuting trips coming from other regions showed decreasing trend together. The results bear important implications for regional labour market plans considering the spatial mismatch between jobs and housing.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.33-33
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• 2022

팔당댐 유역은 수도권 2600만 인구의 상수원으로, 수도권 전체 물 소비량의 90.2%에 달하는 물을 공급하고 있어 중요성이 상당히 크다. 하지만 기후변화로 한반도에 극한기후의 발생 빈도가 증가하면서 미래 수자원 관리가 더욱 어려워질 전망이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 모형 구축을 통해 기후변화가 팔당댐 유역의 수자원에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하고자 하였다. 본 연구는 저수량이 높은 다목적댐이자 상류에 위치하는 소양강댐, 충주댐의 유역의 유입량을 수문모형인 VIC model로 모의하였다. 댐의 존재에 따른 하류의 유량 교란을 고려하기 위해 딥러닝 기반의 LSTM 예측 모형을 활용하였고 각 댐의 방류량을 예측하였다. 보정 기간(1986-2019), 검증 기간(2020)에 대한 방류량 예측 모형의 NSE는 0.9407, 0.6449로 높은 예측성능을 보였다. 팔당댐 유입량 예측에도 LSTM이 활용되었고 소양강댐, 충주댐의 방류량과 두 유역을 제외한 잔여유역의 기상변수인 강우량, 온도, 풍속이 입력되었다. 팔당댐 유입량 예측 모형의 NSE는 보정 기간(1986-2019), 검증 기간(2020)에 대해 각 0.9990, 0.7878로 유입량을 정확도 높게 예측하였다. 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위해 기상청에서 제공하는 RCP4.5의 상세화된 고해상도(1km) 미래 기상자료를 구축된 모형에 입력하여 미래의 팔당댐 유입량을 모의하였다. 모의 결과, 미래 기간에는 팔당댐 일 유입량의 변동성이 증가하면서 유황이 불안정해지고 극한에 해당하는 빈도 갈수량이 크게 감소하는 것으로 예측되었다. 따라서 극한기후로 인해 물 공급이 제한되는 재난 상황에 대비하여 물 공급에 대한 자립성을 높일 수 있는 새로운 물관리 정책이 필요할 것이다.