• Water for future
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.219-233
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• 1995

A non-stationary multivariate model is selected in which the mean and variance of rainfall are not temporally or spatially constant. And the rainfall prediction system is constructed which uses the recursive estimation algorithm, Kalman filter, to estimate system states and parameters of rainfall model simulataneously. The on-line, real-time, multivariate short-term, rainfall prediction for multi-stations and lead-times is carried out through the estimation of non-stationary mean and variance by the storm counter method, the normalized residual covariance and rainfall speed. The results of rainfall prediction system model agree with those generated by non-stationary multivariate model. The longer the lead time is, the larger the root mean square error becomes and the further the model efficiency decreases form 1. Thus, the accuracy of the rainfall prediction decreases as the lead time gets longer. Also it shows that the mean obtained by storm counter method constitutes the most significant part of the rainfall structure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.137-149
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• 1999

For decades, many traffic flow studies on the analysis and determination of level of service (LOS) for the weaving sections have been made to Provide several regression equations. Weaving and non-weaving speeds were dependent variables for the equations, with independent variables being weaving length, number of lanes, and weaving ratios. One of the difficulties in developing the equations was that the weaving areas were rare in Korea, so the statistical analyses for calibrating the equation parameter could not be performed in a desirable manner. In this regard, a new and stochastic methodology for predicting the weaving and non-weaving speeds within the weaving sections was required. In this study the following design variables were developed; influence area of the weaving section. headway distribution within the weaving section, maximum weaving volume of the weaving section, length of the ideal weaving section, and speed estimations for the weaving and non-weaving flows. The evaluation of the new model was made comparing the delay in the weaving section with the one in the freeway basic section.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.837-849
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• 2011

A self-organizing network is designed to estimate parameters of normal mixtures. SOMN achieves fast convergence and low possibility of divergence even when sample sizes are small, while PMLE eliminate unnecessary components. The proposed network effectively combines the good properties of SOMN and PMLE. Simulation verifies that the proposed network eliminates unnecessary components in normal mixtures when sample sizes are relatively small.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.69-80
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• 2002

차로변경이 발생하는 두 가지 상황 즉, 강제 차로 변경과 선택적 차로 변경 중, 선택적 차로변경 상황에서 운전자가 수락 가능한 간격을 발견했을 때, 차로별 속도 차가 차로 변경 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 모사할 수 있는 모형식을 추정하였다. 즉, 선택적 차로 변경은 운전자의 차로 변경 여부에 대한 상황판단과 함께 목적 차로의 간격 수락여부에 대한 의사결정으로 이루어지는데, 본 논문에서는 목적 차로에 수락 가능한 간격이 존재할 경우 차로별 속도차가 운전자의 의사결정에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대해 분석하였다. 이를 위해, 운전자 의 의사결정에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 다른 요소 즉, 중차량, 기하구조, 및 합·분류의 영향을 최소화하는 지점을 선택하여 표본조사를 실시하였으며, 보다 설명력 있는 모형식을 얻기 위해 상관분석 등을 수행하여 불필요하다고 생각되는 변수는 제외시켰다. 또한, 운전자의 희망속도와 주행 속도 차에 의한 영향을 반영하기 위해 현 차로 속도를 부가적인 변수로 추가하였으며, 계수추정은 통계패키지인 SAS를 이용하였는데, 자료분석에 있어, 속도차 구간에 따라 다른 간격수락 특성을 보여 차로별 속도차를 0∼2.0m/s구간과 2∼11.52m/s구간으로 나누어 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 속도차 0∼2.0m/s구간에서는 속도차가 증가할수록 차로 변경률이 높아졌으나, 2∼11.52m/s구간에서는 오히려 차로 변경률이 낮아지는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 속도 차의 증감에 대해 운전자로 하여금 차로 변경을 유도하는 요소와 함께 저항하게 하는 요소가 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 분석결과. 2.0m/s 이상의 속도차에서 차로변경에 대한 저항이 상대적으로 크게 작용한다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 도로 설계시 이를 반영하여 도로기하구조 및 안전성 등을 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.514-521
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• 2021

When calculating an intersection collision speed using a formula, it is very difficult to grasp the degree of deceleration of a vehicle after the collision unless there is road surface trace in the entire section where each vehicle moved from the point of collision to their final positions after the collision. A vehicle's motion trajectory shows an irregular curve after a collision due to the effects of inertia based on the driving characteristics of the vehicle, the eccentric force according to the collision site, and the collision speed. Therefore, it is very important to set the appropriate departure angle after a collision for accurate collision speed analysis. In this study, based on experimental collision data using a computer simulation (PC-Crash), the correlation between an appropriate vehicle departure angle and the post-collision speed was analyzed, and then, a regression analysis model was derived. Through this, we propose a method to calculate collision speed by applying only the vehicle departure angle in some types of collisions for traffic accidents at intersections.

• Proceedings of the Korea Air Pollution Research Association Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.508-509
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• 2003

대기 중 입자상 물질의 건식 침적 속도는 그 과정의 복잡성으로 인해 모형을 이용한 연구 시 종종 일정한 값으로 간주되어 왔다. 그러나 입자상 물질의 전체 침적 속(flux)에서 건식 침적 속(flux)이 차지하는 부분은 무시할 수 없는 양이며, 따라서 입자상 물질의 기후 및 환경에 대한 영향을 평가하기 위해서는 이 과정의 정량적인 추정이 필요하다. 본 연구는 프랑스 기상청(Meteo-France)의 대기화학수송모형(CTM)인 MOCAGE에 에어로졸 모듈을 개발하는 일환으로 지표 특성 및 지표 가까이의 미기상학적 조건 등을 고려하여 입자 크기 별 입자상 물질의 건식 침적 속도를 모수화 하였다.(중략)

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.597-603
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• 2012

It is necessary to accurately evaluate the resistance performance and estimate the towing power of a tugboat for safety towing operation at actual seas. In this study, we have carried out the model tests firstly to investigate the resistance performance and flow characteristics around the tugboat in still water. The experiments are performed in infinite depth in circulation tank using 1/33.75 scaled model from 5kts to 10kts(designed speed 7kts) considering the effect of adverse and favorable current. Then the numerical calculations are executed to analyze the response amplitude operator and added resistance on tugboat due to the waves. The results obtained by the present computation are compared with the those acquired from the experiments in still water. As a result, it is noted that the added resistance become larger at head sea and higher speed conditions. We can also observe that the EHP increase 70 percent in comparison with those in still water.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.171-182
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• 2001

Travel Time is an important characteristic of traffic conditions in a road network. Currently, there are so many road users to get a unsatisfactory traffic information that is provided by existing collection systems such as, Detector, Probe car, CCTV and Anecdotal Report. This paper presents the results achieved with Data Fusion Model, Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy System for on - line estimation of travel times using RTMS(Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor) and Probe Data in the signalized arterial road. Data Fusion is the most important process to compose the various of data which can present real value for traffic situation and is also the one of the major process part in the TIC(Traffic Information Center) for analyzing and processing data. On-line travel time estimation methods(FALEM) on the basis of detector data has been evaluated by real value under KangNam Test Area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.90-105
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• 2013

There are lots of variations on speed, acceleration and engine power during vehicle driving. It is well known that Green House Gas emissions by these dynamic driving properties are not precisely estimated by the average speed based emission estimation model which has been currently used in Korea. MOVES are selected as an appropriate transferable model among Micro-level emission estimation models. Based on MOVES, a novel emission estimation model can be used in Korea is developed. In this model, MOVES concept of emission estimation method and the MOVES method of estimating the Micro-level emission rate map is adopted. The results from the proposed model were compared with those from the average speed based emission model. The comparison results show the estimated base emission maps are good to be applied in Korea, but needed to be adjusted to consider the vehicle size differences between the two countries. Therefore, the factors for calibrating vehicle size difference were calculated and applied to acquired the micro-level emission maps for the Korean standard vehicle types.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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• 2015.11a
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• pp.201-202
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• 2015

과거 연료소모량과 오염물질 배출량을 추정하기 위한 연구에서는 주로 속도변수를 이용하였으나, 속도의 변화에 따른 연료소모량 및 오염물질 배출량의 변화를 올바르게 반영하지 못하는 문제점이 대두되었다. 이러한 문제점을 극복할 수 있는 대안으로 평가받는 것이 가속도이다. 이처럼 가속도 변수가 중요하게 다루어지고 있으나 여전히 연료소모량이나 오염물질 배출량과 관련하여 급가속을 판단할 만한 기준이 모호하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 연료소모 및 $CO_2$ 배출량을 증가시켜 급가속으로 판단할 수 있는 가속도 임계치를 추정하고자 하였다. 가속도 임계치 및 모형추정을 위해 LPG 중형 승용차량에 장착한 차량 정보 저장장치로부터 가속 주행실험시 수집한 실시간 데이터를 수집 분석하였다. 가속의 특성상 동일한 가속도라 할지라도 정지상태인지 여부에 따라 동일한 가속도에 대한 연료소모량, $CO_2$ 배출량이 상이하게 나타난다. 따라서 실험을 통해 정지상태에서 가속시 관성을 극복하기 위한 동력이 요구되는 속도의 범위를 확인하고 이중 출발 가속주행시 임계가속도를 도출하였다. 가속 주행실험 결과 연료소모 및 $CO_2$ 배출 증가량이 급격히 증가되는 임계가속도를 도출하기 위해 CART 분석을 이용하였으며, 그 결과 정지 상태에서 가속하는 경우 $2.598m/s^2$, 의 가속도가 연료 및 $CO_2$ 배출량을 크게 증가시키는 임계 가속도인 것으로 추정되었다.