• Title/Summary/Keyword: 속도추정모형

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Derivation of Scarcity Index for Korean Coal Using Input Distance Function (투입물거리함수(投入物巨利函數)를 이용한 한국(韓國) 무연탄(無煙炭)의 희소성지표(稀少性指標) 산정(算定))

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.33-47
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    • 2004
  • Even though the price of extracted but unprocessed coal has been available in Korea, the use of it as scarcity index would be inappropriate because of price subsidy. Following Halvorsen and Smith(1984), Kim and Lee(2002) derived estimates of the shadow price of unextracted coal by estimating the restricted cost function and differentiating with respect to the quantity of coal extracted. In Korea, however, due to the limited data the capital prices have been computed inconsistently case by case without relying on the robust formula like the Christensen-Jorgenson methodology used in US, which could result in biased estimators of the restricted cost function. In the paper the shadow prices of the resources in situ are obtained by measuring an input distance function defined by Shephard (1970), which requires only the data on the quantities of inputs and output. Empirical results for the Korean coal mining industry show that these shadow prices as a coal scarcity have increased fast by approximately three times in comparisons with those obtained by Kim and Lee.

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Development of Moving Force Identification Algorithm Using Moment Influence Lines at Multiple-Axes and Density Estimation Function (다축모멘트 영향선과 밀도추정함수를 사용한 이동하중식별 알고리듬의 개발)

  • Jeong, Ji-Weon;Shin, Soobong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2006
  • Estimating moving vehicle loads is important in modeling design loads for bridge design and construction. The paper proposes a moving force identification algorithm using moment influence lines measured at multi-axes. Density estimation function was applied to estimate more than two wheel loads when estimated load values fluctuated severely. The algorithm has been examined through simulation studies on a simple-span plate-girder bridge. Influences of measurement noise and error in velocity on the identification results were investigated in the simulation study. Also, laboratory experiments were carried out to examine the algorithm. The load identification capability was dependent on the type and speed of moving loads, but the developed algorithm could identify loads within 10% error in maximum.

Analysis of the Applicability of Parameter Estimation Methods for a Stochastic Rainfall Model (추계학적 강우모형 매개변수 추정기법의 적합성 분석)

  • Cho, HyunGon;Kim, GwangSeob;Yi, JaeEung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1105-1116
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    • 2014
  • A stochastic rainfall model, NSRPM (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model), is able to reflect the cluster characteristics of rainfall events which is unable in the RPM (Rectangular Pulse Model). Therefore NSRPM has advantage in the hydrological applications. The NSRPM consists of five model parameters and the parameters are estimated using optimization techniques such as DFP (Davidon-Fletcher-Powell) method and genetic algorithm. However the DFP method is very sensitive in initial values and is easily converge to local minimum. Also genetic algorithm has disadvantage of long computation time. Nelder-Mead method has several advantages of short computation time and no need of a proper initial value. In this study, the applicability of parameter estimation methods was evaluated using rainfall data of 59 national rainfall networks from 1973-2011. Overall results demonstrated that accuracy in parameter estimation is in the order of Nelder-Mead method, genetic algorithm, and DFP method.

Estimating Utility Function of In-Vehicle Traffic Safety Information Incorporating Driver's Short-Term Memory (운전자 단기기억 특성을 고려한 차내 교통안전정보의 효용함수 추정)

  • Kim, Won-Cheol;Fujiwara, Akimasa;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2009
  • Most traffic information that drivers receive while driving are stored in their short-term memory and disappear within a few seconds. Contemporary modeling approaches using a dummy variable can't fully explain this phenomenon. As such, this study proposes to use utility functions of real-time in-vehicle traffic safety information (IVTSI), analyzing its safety impacts based on empirical data from an on-site driving experiment at signalized intersection approach with a limited visibility. For this, a driving stability evaluation model is developed based on driver's driving speed choice, applying an ordered probit model. To estimate the specified utility functions, the model simultaneously accounts for various factors, such as traffic operation, geometry, road environment, and driver's characteristics. The results show three significant facts. First, a normal density function (exponential function) is appropriate to explain the utility of IVTSI proposed under study over time. Second, the IVTSI remains in driver's short-term memory for up to nearly 22 second after provision, decreasing over time. Three, IVTSI provision appears more important than the geometry factor but less than the traffic operation factor.

Study on The Generation Expansion Planning Considering Emission Trading and LOLP (배출권거래와 공급신뢰도(LOLP)를 고려한 설비계획 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hye-Kyeong;Chung, Gu-Hyung;Hong, Hee-Jung;Han, Seoc-Man;Kang, Dong-Ju;Kim, Bal-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.11b
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    • pp.214-216
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    • 2007
  • Post 2012 기후변화협약 체제의 토래 및 강화되는 기후변화협약으로 인해 우리나라의 온실가스 의무감축이 확실하게 예견되고 있는 현 시점에서 우리나라의 온실가스 감축이행을 위한 대응책의 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 특히 발전부문은 우리나라의 온실가스 배출의 약 30%를 차지하고 있으며, 경제성장에 따라 온실가스 배출량이 빠른 속도로 증가하고 있으므로 Post 2012 기후변화협약 체제의 대응책이 보다 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 향후 발전부문에 온실가스 감축의무가 부담될 것을 고려하여 온실가스 배출량 제약 및 배출권거래제를 고려한 설비계획을 도출하고자 한다. 현재 우리나라의 전원 개발계획에서 사용되고 있는 전산모형(WASP, POWERSYM 등)은 온실가스 배출량 제약 및 배출권거래제를 고려하지 못하므로 MEFISET 모형을 이용하여 이를 고려하고자 한다. 그러나 MEFISET 모형은 설비예비력 제약조건을 통해 공급신뢰도를 만족하고 있다. 이러한 설비계획 결과는 공급신뢰도 기준 을 만족시키기 위해 과도한 설비계획 결과를 도출한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이를 보완하기 위해 Visual C를 통해 구현한 LOLP 프로그램을 통해 공급신뢰도 기준을 만족시키기 위한 적정 설비예비력을 추정하고자 한다.

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Sparse Matrix Computation in Mixed Effects Model (희소행렬 계산과 혼합모형의 추론)

  • Son, Won;Park, Yong-Tae;Kim, Yu Kyeong;Lim, Johan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we study an approximate procedure to evaluate a penalized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a mixed effects model. The procedure approximates the Hessian matrix of the penalized MLE with a structured sparse matrix or an arrowhead type matrix to speed its computation. In this paper, we numerically investigate the gain in computation time as well as approximation error from the considered approximation procedure.

An Analysis of Traffic Characteristics of the Basic Sections of Urban Expressway -in the case of SHIN-CHUN DaeRo in Tae-gu- (도시고속도로 기본구간의 교통특성분석 -대구신천대로를 대상으로-)

  • 김갑수;신판식
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 1998
  • 국가경제의 기반시설인 지역간 고속도로와는 달리 도시고속도로는 도시내 교통을 담당하는 교통시설로서 대부분의 도시에서 건설중이거나 운용 중에 있다. 연속류 도로라는 시설측면을 지역간 고속도로와 비슷하나 이용주체, 차량구성비, 정시성, 제한속도 등 그 성격에는 다소 차이가 있을 것으로 판단된다. 이런 이유에서 현재 도시고속도로의 계획이나 운영에 대한 지침이 지역간 고속도로의 계획 및 운영에 대한 지침과 동일시 되고 있다는 점은 불합리한 것으로 판단된다. 그러므로, 본 연구에서는 도시고속도로의 계획과 운영에 대한 지침을 마련하기 위해 현재 운영중인 대구신천대로를 대상으로 교통류특성 등 기초적 연구를 수행하였다. 연구결과를 간략하게 나타내면 다음과 같다. . 교통류 모형분석에서 기존의 Greenshield 모형이 설명력 90%이상을 나타냈다. . 승용차환산계수 분석에서 중형차량이 1.16, 대형차량이 1.47로 분석되었다. . 용량분석에서 최대관측교통량은 4,684pcphpl, 차두시간분석은 2,432pcphpl, 교통류 모형에서는 2,422pcphpl로 분석되어, 대구신천대로의 서비스용량은 2,300pcphpl에 가까운 것으로 판단되며, 차로폭, 측방여유폭에 따른 보정으로 이상적 조건에서의 용량은 약 2,400pcphpl로 분석되었다. 이 결과는 도시고속도로가 지역간 고속도로의 기본교통용량 2,200pcphpl보다 약 200대 정도 높을 것으로 추정된다.

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Delay Predicting Modeling of Urban Freeway using Lane-based Characteristics (차로별 특성을 고려한 도시고속도로의 지체추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae Gon;Jeong, Yu Na;Hassouna, Fady M.A.
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2010
  • Travel delay (TD) denotes a time difference between the running time of vehicle with a normal speed and the travel time of vehicle with a reduced speed for traversing the same segment of roadway, and is sometimes used as a measure of time delayed in the junction or bottleneck areas of roadway. Urban freeways in the foreign countries are often suffering from traffic delay within the entrance and exit ramp junction influence areas, as a freeway with the speed limit of 80 km/h or higher only during the rush hours, but those in our country are especially experiencing severe traffic delay on the mainline segments as well as within the entrance and exit ramp junction influence areas, as a freeway with the speed limit of 80 km/h or less regardless of the rush hours. So, the purpose in this study is to develop the models that could predict the travel delay within the ramp junction influence areas of urban freeway having the geographical features which differ from the expressway, and also examine the validity of the travel delay predictive models developed.

Developing Higher-Order Continuum Models for Describing Traffic Flow Behavior at Lane Drops Using Momentum Equation (Momentum Equation을 이용한 차로감소구간 교통류의 Higher-Order Continuum 모형 개발)

  • 손영태;양충헌;박우신
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a improved high-order continuum model among macroscopic traffic flow models. This study was mainly performed for uninterrupted flow. In the first step, the proposed model described traffic flow at dropped lane. (no exits) It was possible to describe the traffic flow during short-term considering lane change. The proposed model was based on Payne's model. Our model was newly applied to uninterrupted traffic flow in consideration of geometry condition and driver behavior. It is possible to establish efficient control strategies, simulation and assess the effects of geometric improvements using this model. This model was simulated with field data for the actual adaption. The results of the model tests, traffic volume and density is suitably represented. we think that the results in the article can be led to predicting the situation in the near future.

Prediction of Effective Wake Considering Propeller-Shear-Flow Interaction (선미후류-프로펠러 상호작용을 고려한 유효반류 추정법)

  • Chang-Sup,Lee;Jin-Tae,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1990
  • Interactions between a propeller and vortex system contained in a ship stern flow is treated theoretically. A new formulation to determine the effective velocity distributions is developed, which may be immediately applicable to the design and analysis of compound propulsors under the influence of severe vortical cross-flows around ship stern. An axisymmetric shear flow is represented by a system of ring vortices and the axial variation of the stream lines due to the action of propeller is represented by a cubic function. The strengths of ring vortices, which are varying along the stream lines, are determined by the conservation of angular momentum. Two simplified effective velocity models are proposed to confirm the theory. Sample calculations using the simplified models are made to compare with the results by other investigators.

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