• Title/Summary/Keyword: 소비자심리지수

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행복과 거시경제변수 관련성에 관한 소고(小考) - 행복 : 소비자심리지수를 대용변수로 활용 -

  • Kim, Jong-Gwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.105-108
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    • 2009
  • 기존의 연구논문들에서는 1975년부터 1992년 사이의 OECD 국가들에서 집권정부별 국민들이 느끼는 행복감을 알아보기 위한 분석들이 주로 이루어졌다. 이러한 행복감을 알아보는 데에는 특히 인플레이션율과 실업률이 주요 변수로 활용되고 있다. 각국별로 살펴볼 때, 진보정부의 경우에 있어서는 실업률에 더 주안점을 두는 반면에 보수정부는 인플레이션율에 더 민감하게 대처함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 점들을 살펴보면, OECD 국가들에서 빈곤층은 진보정부를 선호하고 상대적으로 소득수준에서 상위계층은 보수정부를 선호할 것으로 추정된다. 이 논문에서는 한국의 경우 시계열 관계상 진 보정부와 보수정부로 나누지 않고 행복감에 대하여 소비자심리지수를 대용변수로 사 용하였을 경우 경기회복에 따른 산업생산 증가와 이를 위한 정부지출이 중요한 변수 임을 알 수 있었다.

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소비자전망지수의 유용성 검토

  • Park, Won-Ran
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.113-119
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    • 2005
  • 경제적성과는 생산자, 소비자, 정부 등과 같은 경제주체들이 생산, 투자, 소비 등의 활동을 얼마나 유기적이며 효율적으로 잘 하느냐에 달려있고, 소비자전망조사는 경제주체 중 소비자의 향후 경기 및 소비에 대한 심리를 조사하고 이를 지수화하여 소비 및 경기 예측자료로 활용하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이렇게 작성된 소비자기대지수와 소비자평가지수는 서로 높은 상관관계를 가지고 움직이며, 이들의 차는 동행지수 순환변동치보다 3개월 정도 선행하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 소비자기대지수는 계절성 검토결과 계절성이 있으며, 원계열보다 계절조정계열이 움직임이 뚜렷하며, 동행지수 순환변동치와 비교결과 선행성도 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이외에도 소비자기대지수는 소비관련 지표인 GDP 민간소비와 가계소비지출과도 서로 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 정보변수로서의 유용성이 있는 것을 확인하였다.

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Impact of Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Plan on the Housing Markets -Focus on GTX, Housing Consumer Confidence Index and Sales Prices- (광역교통시설 건설계획이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 -수도권 광역급행철도, 주택소비심리지수 및 실거래가 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Ui-Jin;Kim, Jung-Hwa
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2021
  • Constructing the Metropolitan Railway Express (the GTX) may have an impact on consumer confidence and housing sales price located near the planned route. This study looked at how consumers' psychology and housing prices change as the large-scale transport infrastructure plane was planned. Also, it looked at the relationship between consumer sentiment and housing prices to analyze the impact of new transportation facilities inflows. Using a correlation analysis, the relationship between the consumer sentiment index and the actual transaction price of apartments was identified. The impact of GTX on the consumer sentiment index and the actual transaction price of apartments was looked at using the Difference-in-Differences methodology. Our finding shows that the construction plan of a large-scale transportation infrastructure in the metropolitan area affects the sentiment of housing consumption and actual transactions. In a situation where the government is speeding up the construction of a wide-area transportation network such as GTX with the goal of becoming a city where people can commute to downtown Seoul within 30 minutes, policies that can stabilize the housing market in transportation hubs should be suggested.

Electronic-Composit Consumer Sentiment Index(CCSI) development by Social Bigdata Analysis (소셜빅데이터를 이용한 온라인 소비자감성지수(e-CCSI) 개발)

  • Kim, Yoosin;Hong, Sung-Gwan;Kang, Hee-Joo;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2017
  • With emergence of Internet, social media, and mobile service, the consumers have actively presented their opinions and sentiment, and then it is spreading out real time as well. The user-generated text data on the Internet and social media is not only the communication text among the users but also the valuable resource to be analyzed for knowing the users' intent and sentiment. In special, economic participants have strongly asked that the social big data and its' analytics supports to recognize and forecast the economic trend in future. In this regard, the governments and the businesses are trying to apply the social big data into making the social and economic solutions. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the capability of social big data analysis for the economic use. The research proposed a social big data analysis model and an online consumer sentiment index. To test the model and index, the researchers developed an economic survey ontology, defined a sentiment dictionary for sentiment analysis, conducted classification and sentiment analysis, and calculated the online consumer sentiment index. In addition, the online consumer sentiment index was compared and validated with the composite consumer survey index of the Bank of Korea.

A study on the improvement of the economic sentiment index for the Korean economy (경제심리지수의 유용성 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chiho;Kim, Tae Yoon;Park, Inho;Ahn, Jae Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1335-1351
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    • 2015
  • In order to effectively understand the perception of businesses and consumers, the Bank of Korea has released Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), a composite indicator of business survey index (BSI) and consumer survey index (CSI), since 2102. The usefulness of ESI has been widely recognized. However, there exists a margin for improvement in terms of its predictive power. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of ESI and improved the ESI by complementing its defaults. Our results of empirical analysis proved that dynamic optimal weight navigation process using the sliding window method is very useful in determining the optimal weights of configurations item of ESI based on economic situation.

경제체감(Economic Sentiment)의 측정

  • Min, Gyeong-Sam;Jang, Seon-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2005
  • 경기를 보다 정확하게 예측하고 대응하기 위해서는 실물경기지표뿐만 아니라 기업과 소비자의 주관적이고 심리적인 판단 즉 경제체감을 파악하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 기업경기 및 소비자 전망조사의 통계자료들을 활용하여 경제체감(Economic Sentiment) 측정을 시도하였으며, EU 접근방식을 적용하여 2003년 1월부터 2005년 3월까지 우리나라의 경제체감지수(ESI)를 작성하였다. 작성한 지수의 상관분석 결과는 경제체감지수(ESI)가 양호한 선행지표로서 기능할 수 있음을 시사하고 있다.

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The Analysis on Social Happiness and Macroeconomics Variables (행복과 거시경제변수 관련성에 관한 연구 - 행복 : 소비자심리지수를 대용변수로 활용 -)

  • Kim, Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 2009
  • In these OECD countries, left-wingers Government focus on unemployment, but right -wingers Government cares more about inflation. It is that inflation and unemployment don't have differential effects across rich and poor and the happiness levels of these two groups are unaffected by identity of the Government in power. The poor people choose to left-wingers Government, but rich people prefer to right -wingers Government. I estimate whether above opinion is correct or not. Especially I check how my results change when I control for aggregate economy activity and government consumption, two variables that could be correlated with inflation and unemployment and affect each Government's happiness differentially. This paper, and I believe much of the happiness literature, can be understood as an application of experienced utility, a conception that emphasis the pleasures derived from private consumption and sentiment of it. In Granger Causality test, private consumption sentiment index related with industrial production interactively in Korea. The business cycles affect on private consumption sentiment index.

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Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

Analysis on the Relationship between Consumer Sentiment and Macro-economic Indices by Consumer's Characteristics (우리나라 소비자 특성별 체감경기와 거시경제지표 간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Joon;Shin, Sukha
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.474-482
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents an empirical analysis on the relationship between consumer sentiment and macro-economic indices by consumer's characteristics such as age, income and employment type. According to the empirical analysis based on the Consumer Sentiment Index(CSI) of the Bank of Korea and other macro-economic indices, the following study findings are presented. First, individual consumer sentiment depends not only on GDP growth, but also on other macro-economic conditions such as wage, employment, consumer and asset price, and debt burden. Second, the degree of importance of the macro-economic indices on determining individual consumer sentiment varies strongly according to consumers' characteristics. These findings reveal that the gap between consumer sentiment and GDP growth can largely be explained by considering the other macro-economic indices and consumer's characteristics.

Effect of Consumer Expectation Measured by Consumers on Advertising Expenditures (소비자 심리지수를 통한 소비자 예측이 광고비에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Yura;Joo, Jaewoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.5752-5758
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    • 2012
  • We investigate whether consumers' expectations affect managers' decisions. In particular, we examined whether the expectations that consumers make about the changes of their financial situations and family incomes are positively related to the decisions that managers make about advertising expenditures. We analyzed consumers' expectations as well as the advertising expenditures of 6,018 firms between 1991 and 2011. Our analysis supported our hypothesis. Our findings contribute to the discussions regarding the effect of consumer expectations on manager decisions as well as provide practical implications to advertising managers.