• Title/Summary/Keyword: 생존시간 추정

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A default-rate comparison of the construction and other industries using survival analysis method (생존분석기법을 이용한 건설업과 타 업종간의 부도율 비교 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Kyung;Oh, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.747-756
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    • 2010
  • With the recent recession, studies on the economy are actively being conducted throughout the industry. Based on the Small Business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time for the construction and the other industries which are distinguished depending on the types of business and assets in the Small Business. The survival probability was estimated by using the life-table and the difference between the survival probabilities for the different types of business was described via the method of the Log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test. We found that the small business with over one billion asset has the highest survival probability and that with less than 1000 million asset showed the similar survival probability. In terms of types of business Wholesale and Retail trade industry and Services were relatively high in the survival probability than Light, Heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. Most of the Small Business tend to increase in the hazard rate over time.

Pattern-Mixture Model of the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with Missing Binary Covariates (결측이 있는 이산형 공변량에 대한 Cox비례위험모형의 패턴-혼합 모델)

  • Youk, Tae-Mi;Song, Ju-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.279-291
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    • 2012
  • When fitting a Cox proportional hazards model with missing covariates, it is inefficient to exclude observations with missing values in the analysis. Furthermore, if the missing-data mechanism is not Missing Completely At Random(MCAR), it may lead to biased parameter estimation. Many approaches have been suggested to handle the Cox proportional hazards model when covariates are sometimes missing, but they are based on the selection model. This paper suggest an approach to handle Cox proportional hazards model with missing covariates by using the pattern-mixture model (Little, 1993). The pattern-mixture model is expressed by the joint distribution of survival time and the missing-data mechanism. In the pattern-mixture model, many models can be considered by setting up various restrictions, and different results under various restrictions indicate the sensitivity of the model due to missing covariates. A simulation study was conducted to show the sensitivity of parameter estimation under different restrictions in a pattern-mixture model. The proposed approach was also applied to mouse leukemia data.

Propensity score methods for estimating treatment delay effects (생존자료분석에서 성향 점수를 이용한 treatment delay effect 추정법에 대한 연구)

  • Jooyi Jung;Hyunjin Song;Seungbong Han
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.415-445
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    • 2023
  • Oftentimes, the time dependent treatment covariate and the time dependent confounders exist in observation studies. It is an important problem to correctly adjust for the time dependent confounders in the propensity score analysis. Recently, In the survival data, Hade et al. (2020) used a propensity score matching method to correctly estimate the treatment delay effect when the time dependent confounder affects time to the treatment time, where the treatment delay effects is defined to the delay in treatment reception. In this paper, we proposed the Cox model based marginal structural model (Cox-MSM) framework to estimate the treatment delay effect and conducted extensive simulation studies to compare our proposed Cox-MSM with the propensity score matching method proposed by Hade et al. (2020). Our simulation results showed that the Cox-MSM leads to more exact estimate for the treatment delay effect compared with two sequential matching schemes based on propensity scores. Example from study in treatment discontinuation in conjunction with simulated data illustrates the practical advantages of the proposed Cox-MSM.

Effects of Lyophilization on Starter Cell of Rifamycin Fermentation (동결건조법이 Rifamycin 발효의 Starter Cell에 미치는 영향)

  • 이동희;조좌형;이노은
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.470-476
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    • 1992
  • Upon lyophilization of Nocardia mediterranei, the effects of cryoprotectants, cell concentration and drying time on viability were examined, The data were treated by computer according to response surface analysis. As a result, the maximum value of presumed viability was 39.3% under the optimal conditions of 1l.6%(v/v) sucrose, $1.16{\times}10^{11}$(CFU/ml) cell concentration, and drying time for 6.18 hrs. We also used the starter cell of rehydrated solution after lyophilization in industrial production, obtained the fermentation pattern and the purity of rifamycin B which were the same with control (FVM) and it is possible for us to use N mediterranei as a starter cell after the storage of lyophilization for 18 months.

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Estimation of the survival function of the legislative process in Korea: based on the experiences of the 17th, 18th, and 19th National Assembly of Korea (국회 법안 검토 기간의 생존함수 추정: 제 17, 18, 19대 국회의 사례를 바탕으로)

  • Yun, Yeonggyu;Cho, Yunsoo;Jung, Hye-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2019
  • In this study we estimate the survival function of duration of the legislative processes in the 17th, 18th, and 19th National Assembly of Korea, and further analyze effects of the political situation variables on the legislative process. We define the termination of legislative process from a novel perspective to alleviate issues of dependency between censoring and failure in the data. We also show that the proportional hazards assumption does not hold for the data, and analyze data employing a log-normal accelerated failure time model. The policy areas of law agendas are shown to affect the speed of legislative process in different ways and legislative process tends to be prompt in times of divided governments.

An Estimation of Parameters in Weibull Distribution Using Least Squares Method under Random Censoring Model (임의 중단모형에서 최소제곱법을 이용한 와이블분포의 모수 추정)

  • Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 1996
  • In this parer, under random censorship model, an estimation of scale and shape parameters in Weibull lifetime model is considered. Based on nonparametric estimator of survival function, the least square method is proposed. The proposed estimation method is simple and the performance of the proposed estimator is as efficient as maximum likelihood estimators. An example is presented, using field winding data. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performaces of the proposed estimator and maximum likelihood estimator.

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Moving Target Localization using Wavelet based Wireless Sensor Node Collaborative Signal Processing (웨이블릿 기반의 무선 센서 노드 협력 신호처리를 이용한 이동 표적 위치 추정)

  • Cha, Dae-Hyun;Lee, Tae-Young;Hong, Jin-Keun;Han, Kun-Hui;Hwang, Chan-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2009.12a
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    • pp.953-956
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    • 2009
  • 무선 센서 네트워크에서 이동하는 표적의 위치를 추정하기 위한 연구는 센서 노드의 에너지가 제한 되어 있어 센서 노드 상호간의 협력적인 신호처리 기법이 필수적이다. 기존의 무선 센서 네트워크에서 이동 표적의 위치를 추정하는 방법은 각 센서 노드에서 이동 표적으로부터 수신된 신호를 이용해 수신신호강도, 잡음제거, 압축 등의 신호처리를 수행하고 기지국으로 전송하는 형태이다. 이런 기존의 기법은 애드 호크 방법의 무선 센서 네트워크에는 적용이 어렵고, 각 센서 노드에서 신호처리 및 통신에 의한 에너지 소모가 크기 때문에 무선 센서 네트워크의 생존 시간이 짧아지게 된다. 본 논문에서는 웨이블릿 기반의 무선 센서 네트워크의 협력적 신호 처리 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 웨이블릿 변환을 이용한 센서노드에서의 에너지 효율적 특징추출을 수행하고 각 센서 노드간의 특징 전송을 통해 표적의 위치를 추정한다.

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A Study on the Effects of Livestock Disease News on the Purchase of Beef and Pork (축산 질병 보도가 소, 돼지고기 구입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jeong-Seop
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.10
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    • pp.425-432
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    • 2019
  • This study examined the effects of livestock disease news, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), collected by the Korea Press Foundation on BIGKinds on the consumption of beef and pork. The consumer purchase data were obtained from the Rural Development Administration's Agrifood consumer panel data. Survival analysis showed that the FMD news noted beef and pork, and the first purchase rate decreased due to FMD news. The time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model revealed all models to be significant. FMD news was significant in each model. In 2010, the Hazard Ratio of domestic and imported pork was 0.999, and the first purchase rate decreased 0.999 times for each additional FMD news item. On the other hand, the Hazard Ratio of pork in 2015 was 1.001, and the first purchase rate increased. In the case of beef, results similar to pork were shown. This study estimated the impact of consumer meat consumption disease news on the first purchases according to origin and meat. These results provide the necessary information for rational production and consumption activities. In addition, it can also be used for promotion by estimating the duration of livestock disease news.

Target Separation using Wavelet for Multiple Target Localization in Wireless Sensor Network (다중 표적 위치 추정을 위한 무선 센서 네트워크에서 웨이블릿을 이용한 표적 분리)

  • Cha, Dae-Hyun;Lee, Tae-Young;Hong, Jin-Keun;Han, Kun-Hui;Hwang, Chan-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2009.12a
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    • pp.295-298
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    • 2009
  • 다중 표적을 감시하는 무선 센서 네트워크에서 다중 표적이 서로 교차하게 될 때 각각의 표적을 분리하는 문제는 표적의 추적, 탐지, 식별 등의 분야에서 매우 중요하다. 기존의 무선 센서 네트워크에서는 에너지 기반의 기법을 사용하기 때문에 다중 표적의 위치를 추정할 수 없거나, 기지국에서의 원 신호 분석 방법을 통해 표적의 종류를 식별하여 각각의 표적을 분리한다. 후자의 방법은 무선 센서 노드의 통신량과 연산량을 증가시켜 센서 노드의 생존 시간이 짧아지는 단점이 있고, 표적 분리까지 걸리는 시간으로 인해 실시간 처리가 어렵다. 본 논문에서는 무선 센서 노드에서 웨이블릿 변환을 이용한 특징을 추출하고 이를 이용해 다중 표적이 센서 영역 내에서 교차하게 될 때 표적을 분리하는 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 웨이블릿 상수의 주파수 정보를 이용하여 적은 연산으로 표적을 분리한다.

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재래돼지 수정란의 동결보존에 관한 연구

  • 연성흠;허태영;강석진;서국현;최선호;이장희;박성재;류일선;김남철
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Developmental Biology Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.132-132
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    • 2003
  • 멸종위험성이 높은 재래돼지를 유전자원으로서 안전하게 보존하고 유전적 다양성을 유지하기 위해 체내수정란의 동결보존 방법을 수행하였다. 재래돼지의 과배란유기는 altrenogest를 1일 20mg씩 18일 경구투여하고 PMSG 500~l,000IU 근육주사후 80시간에 hCG 500~750IU를 근육주사하였다. 발정이 관찰된 개체는 발정개시후 12시간과 24시간에 자연교배 또는 액상정액을 이용하여 2회씩 수정시켰다. 최종 수정후 5일째에 외과적으로 개복수술하여 FBS가 5% 첨가된 D-PBS 관류액으로 자궁으로부터 수정란을 회수하여 상실기, 배반포기, 확장배반포기의 수정란으로 구분하였다. 회수된 수정란은 FBS가 20% 첨가된 D-PBS의 0.4, 0.8, 1.4M glycerol 항동해제에 각 단계별로 10분씩 평형시킨후 수정란동결기(CL863, Australia)를 이용하여 18$^{\circ}C$부터 -7$^{\circ}C$까지 2$^{\circ}C$/min의 냉각속도와 -7$^{\circ}C$부터 -35$^{\circ}C$까지 0.5$^{\circ}C$/min의 동결속도(실험1), 1$^{\circ}C$/min의 냉각속도와 0.3$^{\circ}C$/min의 동결속도(실험 2)로 동결시켰다. 또한 FBS가 20% 첨가된 D-PBS의 ethylene glyco1(EG) 1.8M의 항동제에 15분간 평형시킨후 실험 1과 동일한 방법으로 동결시켰다(실험 3). 동결수정란의 융해는 37$^{\circ}C$의 항온수조에서 30초간 실시하였다. 항동해제로 glycerol을 이용한 수정란은 융해후 3가지 농도로 0.3M sucrose, 0.8M glycerol, 0.4M glycerol을 첨가한 D-PBS에 각각 10분씩 단계적으로 정치시킨 다음, 10% FBS 첨가 mNCSU-23으로 3회 세척했다. 항동해제로 EG를 이용한 수정란은 융해후 즉시 D-PBS에 각각 10분간 정치시킨 다음, 10% FBS 첨가 mNCSU-23으로 3회 세척했다. 항동해제가 제거된 수정란은 FBS가 10% 첨가된 mNCSU-23 배양액에서 39$^{\circ}C$, 5% $CO_2$ 배양기에 48시간 배양하면서 생존여부를 판단하였다. 실험 2에서 확장배반포배 수정란이 25.3%의 생존율을 나타내었으며, 실험 1과 실험 3에서는 수정란의 형태와 관계없이 생존성을 확인할 수 없었다. 이상의 결과로 보아 glycerol 완만동결에서는 확장배반포기 수정란 이상이 보존가능한 것으로 추정되나 더 추가적인 연구가 요구된다.

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