• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사용수명예측

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Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Simulation of Blasting Demolition Using Three-Dimensional Bonded Particle Model (삼차원 입자결합모델을 이용한 구조물 해체발파 모사 연구)

  • Shin Byung-Hun;Jeon Seok-Won
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2005
  • Reflecting the fact that there are increasing number of old high-story apartment structures in urban area, it is expected that the demand of blasting demolition will increase in the near future. It is of great important to make up for the insufficient empirical knowledge in blasting demolition through priori method such as computer simulation. Computer simulation of the blasting demolition involves complicated process. In the past domestic researches, two-dimensional bonded particle model was used to examine the overall demolition behavior of a five-story simple structure. It was observed that the two-dimensional simulation did not properly simulate the collapsing behavior of a structure mainly due to the reduced degree of freedom. In this study, three-dimensional simulation was tried. It consumed a great amount of calculation time, which limited the extent of the study. A few parameters, such as delay times, amount of charge at each hole, ball properties, were modified in order to check oui; their effect on the collapsing behavior. The differences were observed as expected but the collapsing behavior did not exactly coincide with the test blasting with a scaled model.

The Implementation of a Battery Simulator with Atypical Characteristics of Batteries (비정형적 배터리 특성을 포함한 배터리 시뮬레이터의 구현)

  • Lee, Dong Sung;Lee, Seong-Won
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.3 no.11
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    • pp.419-426
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    • 2014
  • The recent trend of performance increase in the smart mobile devices demands more power consumption and lower batter life time. Among three battery models of mathematical model, electrochemical model and electric model, the Thevenin's equivalent circuit with non-linear function model of SOC in the electrical model is widely used. However, the OCV results have only limited accuracy because of the characteristic shift caused by temperature and age and atypical impedance property that cannot expressed by electrical components. In this paper, the new battery model that improves the accuracy of the existing models is proposed. In the proposed simulator the mathematical model for SOC characteristic is improved and the adjustment for the temperature, the age of battery and atypical electrical characteristics. In the experimental results of predicting of the battery in the static and dynamic state, the proposed simulator shows improved MSE comparing to the results of the existing methods.

Analysis of Characteristics and Internal Resistance of Seawater Secondary Battery according to its Usage Environment (해수이차전지의 사용 환경에 따른 특성 및 내부 저항 분석)

  • Seung-pyo Kang;Jang-mok Kim;Hyun-jun Cho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.223-229
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    • 2023
  • Seawater batteries are next-generation secondary batteries that use seawater as a cathode. They utilize marine resources to provide competitive prices, high eco-friendliness, and a structure suitable for marine applications. Based on these advantages, pouch types and prismatic types have been studied and developed assuming natural seawater exposure. However, because of the electrical characteristics of the secondary battery, its capacity and internal resistance vary depending on the use environment. These characteristics are not only utilized for predicting the life of a battery but also have a direct effect on the capacity and power suitable for a specific situation. Therefore, the internal resistance was analyzed in this study by measuring the capacity depending on the seawater battery use environment and the state-of-charge-open-circuit-voltage measurement method.

조광기능을 갖춘 전자식 형광등용 IC

  • 최낙춘;신동명;김덕중
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 1994
  • 전자식 안정기는 최근 에너지 절약 정책과 관련하여 조명기기분야의 관심의 대상이 되었고, 절전 효율이 높은 고품질의 전자식 안정기에 대한 연구 개발 및 보급이 점점 더 확대되고 있는 추세이다. 일반적으로 전자식 안정기는 수십 KHz의 고주파에서 형광등을 구동시킴으로써 빛의 깜박거림과 가청잡음이 없으며, 저주파(60Hz)에서 사용하는 재래식 안정기(choke coil 방식)에 비해 높은 절전 효과를 얻을 수 있다[1-4]. 특히, 빌딩 사무실의 경우 낮에도 창가의 형광등이 켜져 있어서 막대한 전력을 낭비하고 있는 실정이므로, 일조량에 따른 자동 전력 조절이 가능한 전자식 형광등의 출현이 기대되고 있다. 전자식 안정기의 보급 확대를 위해서는 절전 효과 뿐만 아니라, 품질 문제, 수명 문제등을 고려하여야 하는 바, 예를 들면 순간 점등으로 방전초기의 sputtering 현상에 의한 lamp의 수명 단축, 미소 입력전압 변동에 따른 급격한 광출력의 변화로 절전 효과의 상실과 이상동작에 의한 스위칭 소자의 파괴 현상, 고주파 스위칭시 발생되는 전력손실과 noise등에 대한 대책이 요구되고 있다. 이러한 점을 개선하기 위해 추가되는 회로는 전자식 안정기 시스템을 더욱 복잡하게 만들고, 경제적으로 원가 부담을 주기 때문ㅇ 고품질의 전자식 안정기를 보급하는데 어려운 점으로 부각되고 있다. 본 고에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 조광기능을 포함한 다양한 제어회로와 보호회로를 조광기능을 포함한 다양한 제어회로와 보호회로를 1 chip에 수용하는 고품질의 전자식 안정기 제어용 집적회로에 대해서 기술하고자 한다.되어 나아갈 기술의 조류에도 부합하는 형태라 하겠다. 그러나 이 방식은 기 언급한 바와 같이 분산처리를 관장하는 운영체계의 개발에 상당한 고전이 따르리라 보여지며, 또한 보다 상세한 연구가 선행되어야 하겠지만 개발된 상용의 통신 프로토콜로서는 병렬처리의 성능을 극대화 하기에는 여러가지 제약이 있을 것으로 예측된다.기기들이 어떻게 응용되고 있는지 살펴보기로 하자. real informations would be available. Results are compared with those of optimal power flows.기능시험을 완료했으며 실제 line-of-sight(LOS) 시스템 구현에 적용중이다. 시대를 살아 갈 회원들이다. '컨텐츠의 시대'가 개막되는 것이며, 신세기통신과 SK텔레콤은 선의의 경쟁 과 협력을 통해 이동인터넷 서비스의 컨텐츠를 개발해 나가게 될 것이다. 3배가 높았다. 효소 활성에 필수적인 물의 양에 따른 DIAION WA30의 라세미화 효율에 관하여 실험한 결과, 물의 양이 증가할수록 그 효율은 감소하였다. DIAION WA30을 라세미화 촉매로 사용하여 아이소옥탄 내에서 라세믹 나프록센 2,2,2-트리플로로에틸 씨오에스터의 효소적 DKR 반응을 수행해 보았다. 그 결과 DIAION WA30을 사용하지 않은 경우에 비해 반응 전환율과 생성물의 광학 순도는 급격히 향상되었다. 전통적 광학분할 반응의 최대 50%라는 전환율의 제한이 본 연구에서 찾은 DIAION WA30을 첨가함으로써 성공적으로 극복되었다. 또한 고체 염기촉매인 DIAION WA30의 사용은 라세미화 촉매의

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Development of a Probabilistic Joint Opening Model using the LTPP Data (LTPP Data를 이용한 확률론적 줄눈폭 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Woo;Chon, Sung Jae;Jeong, Jin Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.593-600
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    • 2006
  • Joint opening of jointed concrete pavement is caused by change in temperature and humidity of adjoined slab. The magnitude of joint opening influences on the load-transfer-efficiency and the behavior of sealant. If temperature or humidity decreases, joint opening increases. Generally maximum joint opening of a given joint is predicted by using AASHTO equation. While different magnitudes of joint opening at the individual joints have been observed in a given pavement section, AASHTO equation is limited to predict average joint opening in a given pavement section. Therefore the AASHTO equation may underestimate maximum joint for the half of joint in a given pavement section. Joints showing larger opening than the designed may experience early joint sealant failure, early faulting. Also unexpected spalling may be followed due to invasion of fine aggregate into the joints after sealant pop-off. In this study, the variation of the joint opening in a given pavement section was investigated based on the LTPP SMP data. Factors affecting on the variation are explored. Finally a probabilistic joint opening model is developed. This model can account for the reliability of the magnitude of joint opening so that the designer can select the ratio of underestimated joint opening.

Changes in Material Properties of Used Gas Turbine Blade Made of Single- Crystal Superalloy (가스터빈 단결정 블레이드 사용품의 특성변화)

  • Yoo, Keun-Bong;Lee, Han-Sang;Song, Gyu-So;Lee, Kyu-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.12
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    • pp.1909-1915
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    • 2010
  • The material properties of gas turbine components change during the daily start/stop thermal cycle because of exposure to the hot combustion gas. Recently, single-crystal Ni-based superalloys have been used to manufacture many hot-gas components for gas turbines. However, the user needs to depend on the manufacturer for maintenance issues because of the lack of data required for predicting blade life and material degradation. In this study, we investigate the time-dependent degradation of first-stage blades at various operating facilities to collect the basic data for life assessment and damage analysis. The blade material is a single-crystal Ni-based superalloy, CMSX-4, and the EOH (equivalent operating hours) are 25,000 and 52,000, respectively. We prepared the test specimen directly from used blades and carried out mechanical tests and microstructural observations.

Activation Analysis of Dual-purpose Metal Cask After the End of Design Lifetime for Decommission (설계수명 이후 해체를 위한 금속 겸용용기의 방사화 특성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Man;Ku, Ji-Young;Dho, Ho-Seog;Cho, Chun-Hyung;Ko, Jae-Hun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.343-356
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    • 2016
  • The Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD) has developed a dual-purpose metal cask for the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel that has been generated by domestic light-water reactors. The metal cask was designed in compliance with international and domestic technology standards, and safety was the most important consideration in developing the design. It was designed to maintain its integrity for 50 years in terms of major safety factors. The metal cask ensures the minimization of waste generated by maintenance activities during the storage period as well as the safe management of the waste. An activation evaluation of the main body, which includes internal and external components of metal casks whose design lifetime has expired, provides quantitative data on their radioactive inventory. The radioactive inventory of the main body and the components of the metal cask were calculated by applying the MCNP5 ORIGEN-2 evaluation system and by considering each component's chemical composition, neutron flux distribution, and reaction rate, as well as the duration of neutron irradiation during the storage period. The evaluation results revealed that 10 years after the end of the cask's design life, $^{60}Co$ had greater radioactivity than other nuclides among the metal materials. In the case of the neutron shield, nuclides that emit high-energy gamma rays such as $^{28}Al$ and $^{24}Na$ had greater radioactivity immediately after the design lifetime. However, their radioactivity level became negligible after six months due to their short half-life. The surface exposure dose rates of the canister and the main body of the metal cask from which the spent nuclear fuel had been removed with expiration of the design lifetime were determined to be at very low levels, and the radiation exposure doses to which radiation workers were subjected during the decommissioning process appeared to be at insignificant levels. The evaluations of this study strongly suggest that the nuclide inventory of a spent nuclear fuel metal cask can be utilized as basic data when decommissioning of a metal cask is planned, for example, for the development of a decommissioning plan, the determination of a decommissioning method, the estimation of radiation exposure to workers engaged in decommissioning operations, the management/reuse of radioactive wastes, etc.

Evaluation of Static and Fatigue Performances of Decks Reinforced with GFRP Rebar for Reinfocement Ratio (GFRP 보강근으로 보강된 바닥판의 보강비에 따른 정적 및 피로성능 평가)

  • You, Young-Jun;Park, Young-Hwan;Choi, Ji-Hun;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.491-497
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    • 2014
  • The corrosion of steel reinforcement in reinforced concrete bridge decks significantly affects the degradation of the capacity. Due to the advantageous characteristics such as high tensile strength and non-corrosive property, fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) has been gathering much interest from designers and engineers for possible usage as a alternative reinforcement for a steel reinforcing bar. However, its application has not been widespread, because there data for short- and long-term performance data of FRP reinforced concrete members are insufficient. In this paper, seven full-scale decks with dimensions of $4000{\times}3000{\times}240mm$ were prepared and tested to failure in the laboratory. The test parameter was the bottom reinforcement ratio in transverse direction. The decks were subjected to various levels of concentrated cyclic load with a contact area of $577{\times}231mm$ to simulate the vehicle loading of DB-24 truck wheel loads acting on the center span of the deck. It was observed that the glass FRP (GFRP) reinforced deck on a restraint girder is strongly effected to the level of the applied load rather than the bottom reinforcement ratio. The study results showed that the maximum load less than 58% of the maximum static load can be applied to the deck to resist a fatigue load of 2 million cycles. The fatigue life of the GFRP decks from this study showed the lower and higher fatigue performance than that of ordinary steel and CFRP rebar reinforced concrete deck. respectively.

Cumulative Damage Characteristics of Concrete Subjected to Variable Amplitude Loadings (반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 누가손상 특성)

  • Byun, Keun Joo;Kim, Moon Kyum;Han, Sang Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 1987
  • Cumulative damage characteristics of concrete, on which rapetitive loads are applied, are investigated. Preliminarily, a series of uniaxial compression tests on cylindrical specimens of plain concrete is carried out to find out that, among various factors, stress levels of repetitive loadings and loading order are the most governing factors of cumulative damage of concrete. Based on this preliminary study, fatigue tests are carried out applying two levels of stresses, stepwisely. As a result, it is found that characteristics of cumulative damage of concrete are governed by nonlinear relationships and do not follow Miner's linear theory. It is also observed that cumulative damage characteristics and static strengths of concrete vary with loading history of stresses. Empirical equations which may be useful in predicting fatigue characteristics and remaining life of concrete stuctures are proposed for concrete subjected two stress levels.

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