• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사망예측

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Evaluation of Critical Patient Severity Classification System(CPSCS) for neurocritical patients in intensive unit (신경계중환자에게 적용한 중환자 중증도 분류도구 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Jeonh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5238-5246
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    • 2012
  • This study was done to identify the evaluation of CPSCS for neurocritical patients and provide effective nursing interventions for these patients. Data were collected from medical records of 203 neurocritical patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009 and from October 2011 to December 2011. Collected data were analyzed through t-test, ANOVA test, Person's correlation analysis, trend analysis, stepwise multiple regression. The average CPSCS score was $112.09{\pm}18.91$ and there was a significant trendency for higher severity to lead to higher CPSCS's scores(survival: J-T:9.795, die: J-T:5.415, p=<.001). The scores of the respective areas follows measurement of vital sign($3.74{\pm}2.15$), monitoring($28.97{\pm}4.31$), activity daily living ($34.99{\pm}3.66$), feeding($.19{\pm}.98$), intravenous infusion ($18.20{\pm}8.27$), treatment/procedure ($16.93{\pm}4.90$), respiratory therapy($8.61{\pm}7.07$). By means of stepwise multiple regression analysis, the intravenous therapy & medication, respiratory therapy, activities of daily living, and monitoring area that contains the model showed a significant (F=2073.963, p<.001), and they explained 98.1% of CPSCS. These findings provide information that is relevant in designing interventions to enhance CPSCS among neurocritical patients in hospital.

Evaluation of the Risk Factors Predicting Morbidity and Mortality after Major Pulmonary Resection (주요 폐절제술시 이환율과 사망률을 예견하는 위험인자의 평가)

  • Choi, Ho;Lee, Cheol-Joo;Soh, Dong-Moon;Kim, Jung-Tae;Hong, Jun-Wha;Ryu, Han-Young;Park, Jae-Beom
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.549-555
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    • 1999
  • Background: Patients who are considered for major pulmonary resection are generally evaluated by spirometry and clinical assessment to predict morbidity and mortality. Despite this, none has yet proved to be a convenient and reliable estimate of risk. Material and Method: A retrospective analysis was performed in 167 patients who were diagnosed for lung cancer, bronchiectasis, pulmonary tuberculosis, and other benign pulmonary disease, and who underwent major lung resections. The relationship of 25 preoperative or postoperative variables to 19 postoperative events were classified into categories as operative mortality, pulmonary or cardiovascular morbidity, and other morbidity was assessed. Logistic regression analysis and $\chi$2 analysis were used to identify the relationship of the operative risk factors to the grouped postoperative complications. Result: The best single predictor of complications was the percent predicted postoperative diffusing capacity (pulmonary morbidity, p<0.009; cardiovascular morbidity, p<0.003: overall morbidity, p<0.004). Conclusion: The diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide was an important predictor of postoperative complications than the spirometry, and it usually should be a part of the evaluation of patients being considered for pulmonary resection.

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Numerical Modeling of Local Scour Around a Coffer Dam (물막이댐 주변에서의 국부세굴현상 모의)

  • Noh, Joon woo;Kim, Woo Gu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.419-423
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    • 2004
  • 하상변동은 유속에 의해 얻어지는 전단력에 직접적으로 영향을 받게 된다. 특히 교대나 교각, 그 밖에 수제공 등을 비롯한 수공구조물의 설치에 의하여 흐름단면이 급격히 감소되는 구간에서는 이러한 현상이 매우 활발하게 일어나게 되는데 이는 국부세굴의 직접적인 원인이 되기도 한다. 본 논문에서는 단면축소에 기인한 유속증가에 의해서 발생되는 국부세굴현상을 2차원 유한요소 모델을 사용하여 모의하고 주변의 전반적인 하상변동현상을 규명해 보았다. 먼저 2차원 흐름모형으로부터 유속성분을 구하고 전단력을 구한 다음 소류사 이동공식을 적용한 하상토 보존방정식을 풀이함으로써 국부세굴에 따른 하상의 변동을 수치모델로 예측할 수 있게 된다. 본 논문에서는 유한요소법을 이용, 하상토 보존방정식을 계산한 다음 일정시간동안 모델수행을 통해서 변동이 거의 없을 때까지 하상의 변동사항을 순차적으로 모의하고 예측해 보았다. 적합한 구간을 선정하여 단면축소에 기인한 유속증가로 인한 국부 세굴을 모의하기 위하여 본 모델을 개발, 적용하였다. 미국 미시시피 강에서 Lock & Dam No. 26을 교체하는 제 1단계 작업 중 물막이댐 건설로 인하여 흐름단면이 약 $50\%$ 감소하게 된다. 주로 단면축소 구간을 적용대상으로 선정하여 물막이댐 주변의 하상변동을 모의한 다음 실제 관측치와 비교하여 본 모델의 효용성을 입증하였다. 모형은 기본적으로 유한요소법을 이용해서 하상토 보존 방정식을 풀이한 것으로 van Rijn 소류사 이동공식을 적용하였다. 세굴현상에 기인한 수심증가로 인한 전단력 감소현상도 흐름의 연속조건을 도입하여 모의가능 하게끔 작성하였다.. 상대적으로 적은 것으로 분석되었다. 이번 연구를 통하여 WEP 모형이 유역 물순환 해석에 적절한 모형임을 확인할 수 있었으면, 향후 청계천 유역의 물리적 특성에 대한 매개변수와 인공계 물순환 자료의 보완을 통해 보다 향상된 모의가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. 하였던 Cd과 Mg이 Ca 및 Ca과 vitamin D의 동시(同時) 급여(給與)로 감소(減少)하였고 Cu는 전체적(金體的)으로 변화(變化)가 없었으며 Zn은 Cd 급여(給與)로 감소(減少)하였으나 Ca과 vitamin D의 급여(給與)에 의하여 증가(增加)하였고 Ca은 Ca과 viamin D의 급여(給輿)로 유의(有意)하게 증가(增加)하였다. 신장(腎臟)중의 무기질(無機質) 함량(含量)은 Cd급여(給輿)로 Cu, Mg은 감소(滅少)하였으나 Ca, Zn은 변화(變化)가 없었고 Ca 및 Ca과 Vitamin D의 급여(給與)로 Cd, CU, Zn은 증가(增加)하였다.ce area)는 수술 전100.8$\pm$25.6 mm/$m^{2}$에서 79.3$\pm$ 15.8 mm/$m^{2}$로 감소한 소견을 보였다. 승모판 성형술은 전 승모판엽 탈출증이 있는 두 환아에서 동시에 시행하였다. 수술 후 1년 내 시행한 심초음파에서 모든 환아에서 단지 경등도 이하의 승모판 폐쇄 부전 소견을 보였다. 수술 후 조기 사망은 없었으며, 합병증으로는 유미흉이 한 명에서 있었다. 술 후 10개월째 허혈성 확장성 심근증이 호전되지 않아 Dor 술식을 시행한 후 사망한 예를 제외한 나머지 6명은 특이 증상 없이 정상 생활 중이다 결론:

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Location Benefit Analysis According to Flood Safety Increase (치수안전도 향상에 따른 자산이용고도화 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Jin Ouk;Choi, Seung An;Kim, Hung Soo;Shim, Myung Phil
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.777-783
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    • 2004
  • 하천 세내지 주변은 급속한 시가지 조성과 인구밀집으로 유역의 불투수층이 증가하여 홍수도달시간이 짧아지고 홍수유출량이 증가하고 있다. 또한 엘리뇨${\cdot}$라니냐 등의 이상기후로 홍수사상의 발생 빈도와 규모가 증가하면서 홍수피해도 대형화되어 가고 있다. 그러나 치수사업은 다른 공공사업에 비해 경제성이 저평가 되어 투자우선순위가 밀려 사업시행이 지연되고 예방적 차원의 대책도 미흡하여 피해가 증가하는 악순환이 계속되고 있다. 따라서 본 인구에서는 우리나라의 치수경제성 분석에 있어 계량화하지 못하고 있는 자산이용고도화 효과를 치수안전도와 더불어 분석하고자 한다. 자산이용고도화는 치수사업 시행으로 해당지역의 치수안전도 향상에 따른 자산가치의 상승을 말하는데, 특정지역의 자산가치를 가장 객관적으로 표현할 수 있는 공시지가를 근거로 분석을 수행하였다. 치수사업 시행으로 인한 편익과 하천 특성에 따른 지가변동률의 차이가 통계적으로 유의성이 있는지를 분산분석을 통해 검증하였으면, 자산가치의 상승을 순수 연평균지가변동률로 나타내었다. 치수안전도는 홍수피해 잠재성과 홍수방어능력으로 구분하였는데 홍수피해 잠재성은 도시화율에 따라 구분하였고, 홍수방어능력은 홍수량의 빈도해석과 불확실성을 고려하여 조건부 비초과확률로 나타내었다. 본 연구에서는 소도시 지역(경안천, 복하천, 청미천)을 대상으로 200년 빈도의 홍수사상에 내해 10년, 50년 설계빈도로 건설된 제방의 조건부 비초과확률을 산정하여 지가변동률의 추이를 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 소도시 지역에서는 조건부 비초과확률이 $10\%$ 상승했을 때 순수 연평균지가변동률이 5배정도 상승함을 알 수 있었다.다시 입력자료로 사용하는 업데이트 방식을 사용하기 때문에 예측결과의 오차가 완전하게 보정되지 않으면 다음 결과에 역시 오차를 주게 되어 오차보정이 상당히 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 오차를 보다 효과적으로 보정하기 위해서는 퍼지제어에 사용되는 퍼지규칙의 수를 늘리고, 유입량에 직접적인 영향을 주는 강우량과 연계한 2변수의 Fuzzy-Grey 모형을 이용한다면 보다 정확한 유입량 예측이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.이 작은 오차를 발생하였으며, 전체적으로 퍼프 모형이 입자모형보다는 훨씬 적은 수의 계산을 통해서도 작은 오차를 나타낼 수 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 Gaussian 분포를 갖는 퍼프모형은 전단흐름에서의 긴 유선형 농도분포를 모의할 수 없었고, 이에 관한 오차는 전단계수가 증가함에 따라 비선형적으로 증가하였다. 향후, 보다 다양한 흐름영역에서 장${\cdot}$단점 분석 및 오차해석을 수행한 후에 각각의 Lagrangian 모형의 장점만을 갖는 모형결합 방법을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.mm/$m^{2}$로 감소한 소견을 보였다. 승모판 성형술은 전 승모판엽 탈출증이 있는 두 환아에서 동시에 시행하였다. 수술 후 1년 내 시행한 심초음파에서 모든 환아에서 단지 경등도 이하의 승모판 폐쇄 부전 소견을 보였다. 수술 후 조기 사망은 없었으며, 합병증으로는 유미흉이 한 명에서 있었다. 술 후 10개월째 허혈성 확장성 심근증이 호전되지 않아 Dor 술식을 시행한 후 사망한 예를 제외한 나머지 6명은 특이 증상 없이 정상 생활 중이다 결론: 좌관상동맥 페동맥이상 기시증은 드물기는 하나, 영유아기에 심근경색 및 허혈성 심근증 또는 선천성 승모

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Current Status and Future Challenges of the National Population Projection in South Korea Concerning Super-Low Fertility Patterns (국제비교를 통해 바라본 한국의 장래인구추계 현황과 전망)

  • Jun, Kwang-Hee;Choi, Seul-Ki
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.85-111
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    • 2010
  • South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

Convergence Study in Development of Severity Adjustment Method for Death with Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 급성심근경색증 환자의 퇴원 시 사망 중증도 보정 방법 개발에 대한 융복합 연구)

  • Baek, Seol-Kyung;Park, Hye-Jin;Kang, Sung-Hong;Choi, Joon-Young;Park, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to develop a customized severity-adjustment method and to evaluate their validity for acute myocardial infarction(AMI) patients to complement the limitations of the existing severity-adjustment method for comorbidities. For this purpose, the subjects of KCD-7 code I20.0 ~ I20.9, which is the main diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction were extracted using the Korean National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury survey data from 2006 to 2015. Three tools were used for severity-adjustment method of comorbidities : CCI (charlson comorbidity index), ECI (Elixhauser comorbidity index) and the newly proposed CCS (Clinical Classification Software). The results showed that CCS was the best tool for the severity correction, and that support vector machine model was the most predictable. Therefore, we propose the use of the customized method of severity correction and machine learning techniques from this study for the future research on severity adjustment such as assessment of results of medical service.

Development of Risk Assesment Index for Construction Safety Using Statistical Data (통계자료를 활용한 건설안전 위험도 평가지수 개발)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo;Han, Jae-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.361-371
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    • 2019
  • In 2017, the ratio of the number of victims and deaths in the construction industry was the highest with 25.2% and 29.6%, respectively. Especially, as safety accidents at construction sites continue to increase, the economic loss is greatly increased too. Therefore, in order to prevent safety accidents in the construction work, the safety risk assessment index by type of construction was developed, and the main results of this study are as follows. First, 17 factors related to safety accidents at construction sites were derived through survey and interview survey, and this study suggested 9 items(process, type of construction, progress rate, contract amount, number of floors, safety education, working days and weather) throughout the expert advisory meeting. Second, the risk assessment index for safety accidents was developed based on the ratio and intensity of safety accidents. Third, to verify the risk assessment model, the construction safety risk assessment index by type of construction was derived by surveying and analyzing the statistics of the construction accident. In addition, the risk strength was calculated by dividing human damage caused by construction safety accidents into those killed and injured. The risk assessment index based on the frequency and intensity of safety accidents by type of construction is expected to be utilized as basic data when assessing the risk of similar projects in the future.

High-Quality Standard Data-Based Pharmacovigilance System for Privacy and Personalization (프라이버시와 개인화를 위한 고품질 표준 데이터 기반 약물감시 시스템 연구)

  • SeMo Yang;InSeo Song;KangYoon Lee
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.125-131
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    • 2023
  • Globally, drug side effects rank among the top causes of death. To effectively respond to these adverse drug reactions, a shift towards an active real-time monitoring system, along with the standardization and quality improvement of data, is necessary. Integrating individual institutional data and utilizing large-scale data to enhance the accuracy of drug side effect predictions is critical. However, data sharing between institutions poses privacy concerns and involves varying data standards. To address this issue, our research adopts a federated learning approach, where data is not shared directly in compliance with privacy regulations, but rather the results of the model's learning are shared. We employ the Common Data Model (CDM) to standardize different data formats, ensuring accuracy and consistency of data. Additionally, we propose a drug monitoring system that enhances security and scalability management through a cloud-based federated learning environment. This system allows for effective monitoring and prediction of drug side effects while protecting the privacy of data shared between hospitals. The goal is to reduce mortality due to drug side effects and cut medical costs, exploring various technical approaches and methodologies to achieve this.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognostic Factors of Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia (중증 지역사회획득 폐렴의 임상상 및 예후 예측인자에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Heung-Kook;Seo, Ji-Young;Kim, Dong-Kyu;Choi, Jeong-Eun;Mo, Eun-Kyung;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.1072-1082
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    • 1997
  • Background : To characterize the clinical features and determine the prognostic factors of severe community-acquired pneumonia. This study is the first of its kind in Korea. Methods : Recruited were 40 patients diagnosed as severe community-acquired pneumonia in Hallym University Hospital from January 1, 1989 through July 31, 1996. Patients were analysed retrospectively for age, sex, underlying disease, respiration rate, hypoxemia, requirement of mechanical ventilation, involvement on chest radiograph, shock, and the serum concentration of BUN and albumin. All parameters were compared between survived and dead group. Results : Male to female ratio was 2.07 : 1. The mean age was $63.1{\pm}17.5$years(range 25~90years) with 65% of patients aged equal to or more than 60. The major underlying diseases were old pulmonary tuberculosis(12.5%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(7.5%), bronchial asthma(5%), bronchiectasis(2.5%), and diabetes mellitus(22.5%). Microbiologic diagnosis was made in 26 out of 40 patients(65%). The most common causative organism was S. pneumoniae(17.5%, 7/40) followed by S. aureus(15.0%, 6/40), K. Pneumoniae(12.5%, 5/40), M. tuberculosis(7.5%, 3/40), H. influenzae(2.5%, 1/40), coagulase negative staphylococcus(2.5%, 1/40), P. aeruginosa(2.5%. 1/40), E. cloaceae(2.5%, 1/40), and E. coli(2.5%, 1/40). M. pneumoniae was detected in no patient. The most frequent drugs administered in single or combination therapy were aminoglycosides(75%, 30/40), second- and third-generation cephalosporin(40%, 16/40 and 27.5%, 11/40), macrolides(27.5%, 11/40), and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid(22.5%, 9/40). Of the 40 patients, 14 died of severe community-acquired pneumonia(37.5%). Among them, seven patients (50%) expired within 72h of hospital arrival. According to multivariate analysis, mortality was significantly associated with requirement of mechanical ventilation, bilateral pulmonary involvement, and serum albumins$\leq$3.0g/dl. Conclusion : An understanding of the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in severe community-acquired pneumonia identified in this study will optimize therapeutic approach in this disease and help decreasing its notorious mortality rate.

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Effect of Preoperative White Blood Cell Count on Postoperative Course in Patients with Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (관상동맥우회술 환자에서 술 전 백혈구 수치가 수술 후 경과에 미치는 영향)

  • Son Kuk Hui;Kim Jae Ho;Kim Joung Taek;Yoon Yong Han;Kim Kwang Ho;Baek Wan Ki
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.38 no.10 s.255
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    • pp.669-674
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    • 2005
  • Background: There are several studies that report the relationship between leukocytosis and cardiovascular disease mortality. Most of these studies stand on the basis that atherosclerosis is mediated by inflammatory process. By the same token, preoperative white blood cell count is suggested as an independent predictable factor of postoperative mortality and morbidity in coronary artery bypass grafting. The purpose of this study is to define the influence of preoperative white blood cell count on postoperative morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting. Material and Method: The medical records of the 133 patients who had undergone isolated coronary artery bypass grafting at Inha University Hospital from 1996 to 2003 were reviewed. Patients were evenly divided into four groups, and named as group A, B, C, and D respectively based on their preoperative white blood cell count in ascending order. The number of patients in each group were 33 with exception of 34 in group A. The range of white blood cell count were from $1.3\times10^3/{\mu}L\;to\;5.9\times10^3/{\mu}L\;in\;group\;A,\; from\;6.0\times10^3/{\mu}L\;to\;7.0\times10^3/{\mu}L\;in\;group\;B,\;from\;7.1\times10^3/{\mu}L\;to\;8.9\times10^3/{\mu}L$ in group C, and from $8.9\times10^3/{\mu}L\;to\;16.9\times10^3/{\mu}L$ in group D. Result: The number of patients with recent myocardial infarction was 0 in group A, $2(6.1\%)$ in group B, $4(12.1\%)$ in group C, and $8(24.3\%)$ in D group, showing proportional increase to the white blood cell count (p<0.01). There were six postoperative deaths; $1(2.9\%)$ in group A, $1(3.0\%)$ in group B, $2(2.6\%)$ in group C, and $2(6.1\%)$ in group D (p=0.44), showing no significant difference between the groups. Postoperative wound infection occurred in 3 patients; all 3 patients were in group D, showing that postoperative wound infection is closely related to the preoperative white blood cell count. Conclusion: The association between preoperative white blood cell count and postoperative mortality could not be defined. The incidence of postoperative wound infection was found to be proportional to the preoperative white blood cell counts.