• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사망예측

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An Approach to Risk Assessment of City Gas Pipeline (도시가스 배관의 위험평가 방법론 제시)

  • Park Kyo-Shik;Lee Jin-Han;Jo Young-Do;Park Jin-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.1 s.18
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2003
  • In this work, a novel approach was introduced to assess cost of loss resulting from risk as well as to help deciding inspection period through quantifying risk. In order to quantifying risk of city gas pipeline, frequency and consequence analysis were required. The main causes of city gas accident were analyzed to be digging, external corrosion, ground movement, and equipment failure. Tools to evaluate frequency of each cause was also suggested. Among city gas accidents, fire damage is the dominant one and mainly discussed; fatality, burning injury, and damage to building were estimated using the consequence model suggested. By combining frequency and consequence analysis, evaluating cost of risk management together with calculating example. This work could be applicable for city gas companies to plan how to manage risk most effectively.

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Electroencephalogram-based Driver Drowsiness Detection System Using AR Coefficients and SVM (AR계수와 SVM을 이용한 뇌파 기반 운전자의 졸음 감지 시스템)

  • Han, Hyungseob;Chong, Uipil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.768-773
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    • 2012
  • One of the main reasons for serious road accidents is driving while drowsy. For this reason, drowsiness detection and warning system for drivers has recently become a very important issue. Monitoring physiological signals provides the possibility of detecting features of drowsiness and fatigue of drivers. One of the effective signals is to measure electroencephalogram (EEG) signals and electrooculogram (EOG) signals. The aim of this study is to extract drowsiness-related features from a set of EEG signals and to classify the features into three states: alertness, drowsiness, sleepiness. This paper proposes a drowsiness detection system using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) coefficients and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Samples of EEG data from each predefined state were used to train the SVM program by using the proposed feature extraction algorithms. The trained SVM program was tested on unclassified EEG data and subsequently reviewed according to manual classification. The classification rate of the proposed system is over 96.5% for only very small number of samples (250ms, 64 samples). Therefore, it can be applied to real driving incident situation that can occur for a split second.

The Prognostic Role of B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성폐쇄성폐질환의 급성 악화시 예후 인자로서의 혈중 B-type Natriuretic Peptide의 역할)

  • Lee, Ji Hyun;Oh, So Yeon;Hwang, Iljun;Kim, Okjun;Kim, Hyun Kuk;Kim, Eun Kyung;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.600-610
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    • 2004
  • Background : The plasma B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) concentration increases with the degree of pulmonary hypertension in patients with chronic respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic role of BNP in the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD). Method : We selected 67 patients who were admitted our hospital because of an acute exacerbation of COPD. Their BNP levels were checked on admission at the Emergency Department. Their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups according to their in-hospital mortality. The patients' medical history, comobidity, exacerbation type, blood gas analysis, pulmonary function, APACHE II severity score and plasma BNP level were compared. Results : Multiple logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors of mortality: $FEV_1$, APACHE II score and plasma BNP level. The decedents group showed a lower $FEV_1$($28{\pm}7$ vs. $37{\pm}15%$, p=0.005), a higher APACHE II score($22.4{\pm}6.1$ vs. $15.8{\pm}4.7$, p=0.000) and a higher BNP level ($201{\pm}116$ vs. $77{\pm}80pg/mL$, p=0.000) than the sSurvivors group. When the BNP cut-off level was set to 88pg/mL using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 75% in differentiating between the survivors and decedents. On Fisher's exact test, the odds ratio for mortality was 21.2 (95% CI 2.49 to 180.4) in the patients with a BNP level > 88pg/mL. Conclusion : The plasma BNP level might be a predictor of mortality in an acute exacerbation of COPD as well as the $FEV_1$ and APACHE II score.

Clinical Outcome and Prognostic Factors of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Children (소아 급성 호흡곤란 증후군의 치료 성적 및 예후 인자)

  • Ko, Jung-Min;Ha, Eun-Ju;Lee, Eun-Hee;Lee, So-Youn;Kim, Hyo-Bin;Hong, Soo-Jong;Park, Seong-Jong
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.599-605
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to examine the causes, clinical courses and outcomes in children with acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS), and evaluate the physiologic variables as prognostic factors in the patients. Methods : Retrograde medical chart review was carried out in 24 patients who were diagnosed with ARDS at the pediatric intensive care unit(PICU) during 20-month period. Results : The incidence of ARDS among all PICU admission was 3.7 percent and the mortality rate was 37.5 percent, which was 14.8 percent of overall deaths in PICU. The most common causes of ARDS were pneumonia and sepsis. We found significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors in $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio(P/F ratio), alveolar arterial oxygen gradient and oxygenation index(OI) on the second day from the onset of ARDS. Therapies for ARDS such as high frequency oscillator ventilation(HFOV), recruitment maneuver and low dose corticosteroid improved the P/F ratio and OI, especially in survivors. Conclusion : The mortality rate of children with ARDS was 37.5 percent; an important cause of death in PICU. HFOV, recruitment maneuver and low dose corticosteroid seemed to be effective in pediatric ARDS. The P/F ratio, alveolar arterial oxygen gradient and OI on the second day from the onset of ARDS may be useful as prognostic factors.

The Prognostic Value of the Seventh Day APACHE III Score in Medical Intensive Care Unit (내과계 중환자들의 예후 판정에 었어서 제 7병일 APACHE III 점수의 임상적 유용성)

  • Kim, Mi-Ok;Yun, Soo-Mi;Park, Eun-Joo;Sohn, Jang-Won;Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2001
  • Background : Most current research using prognostic scoring systems in critically ill patients have focused on prediction using the first intensive care unit (ICU) day data or daily updated data. Usually the mean ICU length of stay in Korea is longer than in the western world. Consequently, a more cost-effective and practical prognostic parameter is required. The principal aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the seventh day(7th day : the average mean ICU length of stay) APACHE III score in a medical intensive care unit. Methods : 241 medical ICU patients from July 1997 to April 1998 were enrolled. The 1st and 7th scores were measured by using the APACHE III scoring system and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ APACHE III scores and the mortality risk. Results : 1 )The mean length of stay in the ICU was $10.3{\pm}13.8$ days. 2)The mean $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores were $59.7{\pm}30.9$ and $37.9{\pm}27.7$. 3) The mean $1^{st}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($49.9{\pm}23.8$ vs $86.3{\pm}32.3$, P<0.0001). 4)The mean $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($30.1{\pm}18.5$ vs $80.1{\pm}30.4$, P<0.0001). 5)The odds ratios among the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores and the mortality rate were 1.0507 and 1.0779 respectively. Conclusion : These results suggest that the seventh day APACHE III score is as useful in predicting the outcome as is such like the first day APACHE III score. Therefore, in comparison to the daily APACHE III score, measuring the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores are also useful for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients in terms of cost-effectiveness. It is suggested that the $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score is useful for predicting the clinical outcome.

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Prognostic Utility of the Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells-1 in Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에서 Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells-1의 예후인자로서의 유용성)

  • Huh, Jin Won;Jung, Hoon;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Younsuck;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2008
  • Background: The triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) is an activating receptor that is expressed on the surface of neutrophils and mature monocytes when stimulated with several microbial components, which can amplify the inflammatory response. This study analyzed the prognostic value of the sTREM-1 levels in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Methods: The bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid and blood was collected prospectively from 32 patients with ARDS, 15 survivors and 17 nonsurvivors. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was performed to measure the sTREM-1. The following data was obtained: APACHE II score, Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), BAL fluid analysis, C-reative protein. Mortality in the ICU was defined as the end point. Results: The serum sTREM-1 level was significantly higher in the nonsurvivors than survivors ($54.3{\pm}10.3pg/ml$ vs. $22.7{\pm}2.3pg/ml$, p<0.05). The sTREM-1 level in the serum, but not in the BAL fluid, was an independent predictor of the ICU mortality (OR: 22.051, 95% CI: 1.780~273.148, p<0.016), and a cut-off value of ${\geq}33pg/ml$ yielded a diagnostic sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 93%. Conclusion: The serum sTREM-1 level may be a useful predictor of the outcome of ARDS patients.

Clinical Presentation of the Patients with Non-traumatic Chest Pain in Emergency Department (응급의료센터에 내원한 비외상성 흉통환자의 임상 양상)

  • Chung, Jun-Young;Lee, Sam-Beom;Do, Byung-Soo;Park, Jong-Seon;Shin, Dong-Gu;Kim, Young-Jo
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.283-295
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    • 1999
  • Background: Patients with acute non-traumatic chest pain are among the most challenging patients for care by emergency physicians, so the correct diagnosis and triage of patients with chest pain in the emergency department(ED) becomes important. To avoid discharging patients with acute myocardial infarction(AMI) without medical care, most emergency physicians attempt to admit almost all patients with acute chest pain and order many laboratory tests for the patients. But in practice, many patients with non-cardiac pain can be discharged with simple tests and treatment. These patients occupy expensive intensive care beds, substantially increasing financial cost and time of stay at ED for the diagnosis and treatment of myocardial ischemia and AMI. Despite vigorous efforts to identify patients with ischemic heart disease, approximately 2% to 5% of patients presented to the ED with AMI and chest pain are inadvertently discharged. If the cause for the chest pain is known, rapid and accurate diagnosis can be implemented, preventing wastes in time and money and inadvertent discharge. Methods and Results: The medical records of 488 patients from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1997 were reviewed. There were 320(angina pectoris 140, AMI 128) cases of cardiac diseases, and 168(atypical chest pain 56, pneumothorax 47) cases of non-cardiac diseases. The number of associated symptoms were $1.1{\pm}0.9$ in non-cardiac diseases, $1.4{\pm}1.1$ in cardiac diseases and $1.7{\pm}1.1$ in AMI(p<0.05). In laboratory finding the sensitivity of electrocardiography(EKG) was 96.1%, while the sensitivity of myoglobin test ranked 45.1%. Admission rate was 71.6% in for cardiac diseases and 50.6% for non-cardiac diseases(p<0.01). Mortality rate was 8.8% in all cases, 13.8% in cardiac diseases, 0.6% in non-cardiac diseases, and 28.1% especially in AMI. Conclusion: In conclusion, all emergency physicians should have thorough knowledge of the clinical characteristics of the diseases which cause non-traumatic chest pain, because a patient with any of these life-threatening diseases would require immediate treatment. Detailed history on the patient should be taken and physical examination performed. Then, the most simple diagnostic approach should be used to make an early diagnosis and to provide treatment.

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A Study on Scenario to establish Coastal Inundation Prediction Map due to Storm Surge (폭풍해일에 의한 해안침수예상도 작성 시나리오 연구)

  • Moon, Seung-Rok;Kang, Tae-Soon;Nam, Soo-Yong;Hwang, Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.492-501
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    • 2007
  • Coastal disasters have become one of the most important issues in every coastal country. In Korea, coastal disasters such as storm surge, sea level rise and extreme weather have placed many coastal regions in danger of being exposed or damaged during subsequent storms and gradual shoreline retreat. A storm surge is an onshore gush of water associated with a tow pressure weather system, typically in typhoon season. However, it is very difficult to predict storm surge height and inundation due to the irregularity of the course and intensity of a typhoon. To provide a new scheme of typhoon damage prediction model, the scenario which changes the central pressure, the maximum wind radius, the track and the proceeding speed by corresponding previous typhoon database, was composed. The virtual typhoon scenario database was constructed with individual scenario simulation and evaluation, in which it extracted the result from the scenario database of information of the hereafter typhoon and information due to climate change. This virtual typhoon scenario database will apply damage prediction information about a typhoon. This study performed construction and analysis of the simulation system with the storm surge/coastal inundation model at Masan coastal areas, and applied method for predicting using the scenario of the storm surge.

Impact of Pulmonary Vascular Compliance on the Duration of Pleural Effusion Duration after Extracardiac Fontan Procedure (수술 전 폐혈관 유순도가 심장 외 도판을 이용한 Fontan 수술 후 늑막 삼출 기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun Tae-Jin;Im Yu-Mi;Song Kwang-Jae;Jung Sung-Ho;Park Jeong-Jun;Seo Dong-Man;Lee Moo-Song
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.8 s.265
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    • pp.579-587
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    • 2006
  • Background: Preoperative risk analysis for Fontan candidates is still less than optimal in that patients with apparently low risks may have poor surgical outcome; prolonged pleural drainage, protein losing enteropathy, pulmonary thromboembolism and death. We hypothesized that low pulmonary vascular compliance (PVC) is a risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the Fontan operation. Material and Method: A retrospective review of 96 consecutive patients who underwent the Extracardiac Fontan procedures (median age: 3.9 years) was performed. Fontan risk score (FRS) was calculated from 12 categorized preoperative anatomic and physiologic variables. PVC $(mm^2/m^2{\cdot}mmHg)$ was defined as pulmonary artery index $(mm^2/m^2)$ divided by total pulmonary resistance $(W.U{\cdot}/m^2)$ and pulmonary blood flow $(L/min/m^2)$ based on the electrical circuit analogue of the pulmonary circulation. Chest tube indwelling time was log-transformed (log indwelling time, LIT) to fit normal distribution, and the relationship between preoperative predictors and LIT was analyzed by multiple linear regression. Result: Preoperative PVC, chest tube indwelling time and LIT ranged from 6 to 94.8 $mm^2/mmHg/m^2$ (median: 24.8), 3 to 268 days (median: 20 days), and 1.1 to 5.6 (mean: 2.9, standard deviation: 0.8), respectively. FRS, PVC, cardiopulmonary bypass time (CPB) and central venous pressure at postoperative 12 hours were correlated with LIT by univariable analyses. By multiple linear regression, PVC (p=0.0018) and CPB (p=0.0024) independently predicted LIT, explaining 21.7% of the variation. The regression equation was LIT=2.74-0.0158 PVC+0.00658 CPB. Conclusion: Low pulmonary vascular compliance is an important risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the extracardiac Fontan procedure.

Evaluation of Critical Patient Severity Classification System(CPSCS) for neurocritical patients in intensive unit (신경계중환자에게 적용한 중환자 중증도 분류도구 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Jeonh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5238-5246
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    • 2012
  • This study was done to identify the evaluation of CPSCS for neurocritical patients and provide effective nursing interventions for these patients. Data were collected from medical records of 203 neurocritical patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009 and from October 2011 to December 2011. Collected data were analyzed through t-test, ANOVA test, Person's correlation analysis, trend analysis, stepwise multiple regression. The average CPSCS score was $112.09{\pm}18.91$ and there was a significant trendency for higher severity to lead to higher CPSCS's scores(survival: J-T:9.795, die: J-T:5.415, p=<.001). The scores of the respective areas follows measurement of vital sign($3.74{\pm}2.15$), monitoring($28.97{\pm}4.31$), activity daily living ($34.99{\pm}3.66$), feeding($.19{\pm}.98$), intravenous infusion ($18.20{\pm}8.27$), treatment/procedure ($16.93{\pm}4.90$), respiratory therapy($8.61{\pm}7.07$). By means of stepwise multiple regression analysis, the intravenous therapy & medication, respiratory therapy, activities of daily living, and monitoring area that contains the model showed a significant (F=2073.963, p<.001), and they explained 98.1% of CPSCS. These findings provide information that is relevant in designing interventions to enhance CPSCS among neurocritical patients in hospital.