• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고빈도모형

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The Analysis of Risk according to Traffic Accident Types by Novice and Experienced Drivers in Korea (초보 및 일반운전자의 교통사고유형별 위험도 비교분석)

  • Kim, Gi-Yong;Jang, Myeong-Sun;O, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2009
  • To analyze the risk according to accident types by novice and experienced drivers, it is used the accidents data which occurred for 2 years(2005~2006) in Korea. It is defined that novice driver is a people who is not passed 1 year after getting a driving licence and experienced driver is a people who is passed 1 year in this study. It is used a risk model to compare and analyze about the risk between two groups. The risk model is developed to apply together two variables which is accidents frequency and severity. Then it is used a conceptual weight to find that proper rate between accident frequency and fatal accident frequency. It is found a weight($\omega=0.6$) to suitable value to apply a risk model. The results showed that collision with obstacles, angle collision($90^{\circ}$) types to novice driver group have bigger risk than experienced driver group.

Prediction Of Traffic Accident Casualties Using Machine Learning: For Seoul Public Data (머신러닝을 이용한 교통사고 사상자 수 예측:서울시 공공데이터를 대상으로)

  • Nam, Myung-woo;Park, Doo-Seo;Jang, Young-Jun;Lee, Hong-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2021.01a
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    • pp.27-30
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    • 2021
  • 경제 성장과 함께 자동차의 수요가 늘어남에 따라 교통사고 발생 빈도는 꾸준히 증가하고 있다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 교통사고를 야기하는 도로 및 기상환경과 같은 조건을 활용하여 기계학습 모델을 통해 서울시 교통사고 사상자 수를 예측하는 모형을 찾고자 한다. 활용한 데이터는 도로교통 공단에서 제공하는 교통사고 사상자 수 정보를 포함하는 데이터로 2015년부터 2018년도까지 데이터를 학습에 사용하였고 2019년도 데이터를 테스트 평가에 사용하였다. 실증연구를 통해 트리 기반의 모델 별 성능을 비교하였으며 본 연구에 대한 결과는 사고 발생 시 우선순위에 의한 구조활동이 가능하게 함과 도로상황 및 기상을 고려한 안전운전 가이드 지식으로 활용될 수 있다.

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Development and validation of Accident Modification Factors of Two-Lane Rural Roadways (지방부 2차로 도로의 사고예측계수 개발 및 검증)

  • Kim, Eung-Cheol;Choe, Eun-Jin;Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Do-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2010
  • This study has aimed to develop accident modification factor(AMF) for rural two-lane roadway segments. Accident Modification Factor is a coefficient to assess roadway safety as reflecting characteristics of homogeneous roadway. It estimates accident frequency of roadway segments with developed base model and exposure. We found on items of such factors as crosswalk, driveway density, topography characteristic, land use and median through statistical models and literature review. To develop accident modification factors, we used statistical model methods and analyses of applicability and expert judgement method were practiced to validate it. Although expert judgement for land use item was questionable, most items were rated acceptable. Result of comparative analysis revealed crash frequencies of IHSDM and KHSEM were most similar with actual. However, accident distribution of KHSEM was more proper than IHSDM. Also overall estimated values of RSDS were found to be overestimated.

Characteristics of Geometric Conditions Affecting Freeway Traffic Safety at Nighttime, Sunrise, and Sunset (야간 및 일출몰 시간대 교통안전에 영향을 미치는 고속도로 기하구조 특성분석)

  • Hong, Sung-Min;Kim, Joon-Ki;Oh, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • Driver's capability of identifying the change in freeway alignments and environments is one of important factors associated with traffic safety on freeways. In particular, driver's visibility and recognition capability are highly dependent on the altitude of the sun by sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of geometric conditions affecting crash occurrences at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime. Poisson and negative binomial regressions were adopted to predict freeway crash frequency in this study. Freeway crash data during 2007~2010 were used for developing the crash frequency models. A set of variables representing the characteristics of geometric conditions were identified as significant ones affecting crash occurrences. The results of this study would be useful in deriving effective countermeasures for preventing traffic crashes that mainly occur at sunset, sunrise, and nighttime on freeways.

A Scheme of Crisis Management for National Aviation Safety (국가차원의 항공안전위기관리 방안)

  • Kim, Yeon-Myung;Hong, Seok-Jin;An, Hyuck-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2005
  • To develop a crisis management for aviation safety, this study has defined crisis management includes risk management which is eliminates or lowers risks prior to accidents and emergency response after the accidents. A risk management model was developed through wide surveys for aviation hazards including aircraft operation, ATC, and airport operation, etc. The crisis management could not be effective by only using a pre-active risk management. It should also conduct using a pro-active response system. In addition, this study also suggested schemes of development for national emergency response through case studies of aircraft accidents.

Bayesian Analysis for the Zero-inflated Regression Models (영과잉 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Jang, Hak-Jin;Kang, Yun-Hee;Lee, S.;Kim, Seong-W.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2008
  • We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.

Optimal Location of Expressway Patrol Vehicle Stations Using Maximum Covering and Weighted p-Center Problems (Maximum Covering 문제와 Weighted p-Center 문제를 이용한고속도로 순찰대 최적 입지 결정)

  • Kim, Myeonghyeon;Kim, Hyo-Seung;Kim, Dong-Kyu;Lee, Chungwon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2013
  • This paper aims to determine the optimal location of expressway patrol vehicle stations that minimizes additional troubles caused by the delay of crash treatments. To do this, we formulate a maximum covering problem and a p-center problem weighted by crash frequency, using the shortest distance as the criteria for allocating service district, and we employ the Lagrangian relaxation algorithm to solve the former and Daskin's heuristic algorithm to solve the latter, respectively. Based on crash data of Korean expressways, the results from the proposed models are compared with the current location of patrol vehicle stations by using several indices as the level of service for crash treatment, such as maximum crash-weighted distance, average crash-weighted distance, and average access distance. The results show that the proposed models improve average access distance and time by about 10km and 10min, respectively. When allocation for service district is changed only with the fixed current location, the level of service can be also improved. The models and results proposed in this paper can contribute to improving the level of service for crash treatment on expressways. They can also provide the theoretical basis on the location decision for other various emergency facilities, and the allocation decision for floating service districts according to time-period crash data.

Training Loading Arm Simulator using IOT Digital Twin (IOT 디지털트윈을 이용한 교육용 로딩암 시뮬레이터)

  • NA, Dumin;Lee, Hyunseok;Joo, Sehwan;Yoon, Minseok;Lim, Yubeen;Kim, Jeong-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.331-334
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    • 2020
  • 항만에서 액체화물 취급이 증가함에 따라 로딩암의 사용빈도가 늘어나고 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 로딩암 교육생들이 실전에 투입되기 전에 충분히 교육할 수 있도록 교육용 시뮬레이션을 제시한다. 그와 더불어 시뮬레이션과 연동되는 로딩암모형의 디지털트윈 연동을 통해, 교육생들의 로딩암 조종기술 향상을 이루어, 보다 안전한 로딩암작업과 항만의 액체화물사고 빈도를 크게 줄일 것으로 기대한다.

A Study on the Road Safety Analysis Model: Focused on National Highway Areas in Cheonbuk Province (도로 안전성 분석 모형에 관한 연구: 전라북도 국도 권역을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Joonbeom;Kim, Joon-Ki;Lee, Soobeom;Kim, Hyunjin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.583-595
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    • 2014
  • Currently, Korean transportation policies are aiming for increase of safety and environment-friendly and efficient operation, by avoiding construction and expansion of roads, and upgrading road alignments and facilities. This is revealed by that there have been 22 road expansion projects (30%) and 50 road improvement projects (70%) under the 3rd Five-Year Plan for National Highways ('11~'15), while there were 53 road expansion projects (71%) and 22 road improvement projects (29%) under the 2nd Five-Year Plan for National Highways. For more effective road improvement projects, there is a need of choosing projects after an objective and scientific safety assessment of each road, and assessing safety improvement depending on projects. This study is intended to develop a model for this road safety analysis and assessment. The major objective of this study is creating a road safety analysis and assessment model appropriate for Korean society, based on the HSM (Highway Safety Manual) of the U.S. In order to build up data for model development, the sections thought to have identical geometrical structure factors in 5 lines, Cheonbuk province, were divided as homogeneous sections, and representative values of geometric structures, facilities, traffic volume, climate conditions and land usage were collected from the 1,452 sections divided. In order to build up data for model development, the sections thought to have identical geometrical structure factors in 5 lines, Cheonbuk province, were divided as homogeneous sections, and representative values of geometric structures, facilities, traffic volume, climate conditions and land usage were collected from the 1,452 sections divided. The collected data was processed correlation analysis of each road element was implemented to see which factor had a big effect on traffic accidents. On the basis of these results, then, an accident model was established as a negative binomial regression model.Using the developed model, an Crash Modification Factor (CMF) which determines accident frequency changes depending on safety performance function (SPF) predicting the number of accident occurrence through traffic volume and road section expansion, road geometric structure and traffic properties, was extracted.

The Effects of Critical Thinking Disposition and Problem Solving Ability on the Work Performance Assessment of Dental Hygienists (치과위생사의 비판적 사고 성향과 문제 해결 능력이 직무 수행 능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Lee, Su-Young;Kim, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to improve work performance conducted at an actual clinical site by determining the relationship among critical thinking disposition, problem solving ability, and work performance. In this study, 335 dental hygienists completed self-administered survey. Final analysis was conducted with a total of 331 responses, excluding 4 questionnaire with unreliable responses and non-responses. The results indicated that as the age, educational background, and work experience of the subjects increased, their critical thinking disposition and problem solving ability scores increased and were statistically significant. For work performance, average total score was high for age, educational background and work experience, but only age and work experience were statistically significant. Critical thinking disposition, problem solving ability and work performance of the subject were relevant, and all of them were significant. Work performance was also influenced indirectly by mediating problem solving ability in critical thinking disposition. In other words, both direct and indirect effects were significant, and the existence of partial moderating effect was verified. Thus, in order to improve work performance of dental hygienists, a multilevel educational process that can simultaneously improve critical thinking disposition and problem solving ability of dental hygienists needs to be developed. Therefore, it is expected that the new dental hygiene company will be able to perform without any sense of disparity in the clinical field; this will solve the gap between dental hygiene education and practical skills.