• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비선형 잠재성장모형

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A Methodology for Improving fitness of the Latent Growth Modeling using Association Rule Mining (연관규칙을 이용한 잠재성장모형의 개선방법론)

  • Cho, Yeong Bin;Jun, Jae-Hoon;Choi, Byungwoo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2019
  • The Latent Growth Modeling(LGM) is known as the typical analysis method of longitudinal data and it could be classified into unconditional model and conditional model. It is common to assume that the growth trajectory of unconditional model of LGM is linear. In the case of quasi-linear, the methodology for improving the model fitness using Sequential Pattern of Association Rule Mining is suggested. To do this, we divide longitudinal data into quintiles and extract periodic changes of the longitudinal data in each quintiles and make sequential pattern based on this periodic changes. To evaluate the effectiveness, the LGM module in SPSS AMOS was used and the dataset of the Youth Panel from 2001 to 2006 of Korea Employment Information Service. Our methodology was able to increase the fitness of the model compared to the simple linear growth trajectory.

Application of Mechanical Crack Model to Numerical Study of Rock Mass Behavior (암석거동의 수치해석적 연구를 위한 균열모형의 적용)

  • Park, Do-hyun;Jeon, Seok-won
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.72-85
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    • 2000
  • Rock is a very complex and heterogeneous material, containing structural flaws due to geologic generation process. Because of those structural flaws, deformation and failure of rock when subjected to differential compressive stresses is non-linear. To simulate the non-linear behavior of rock, mechanical crack models, that is, sliding and shear crack models have been used in several studies. In those studies, non-linear stress-strain curves and various behaviors of rock including the changes of effective elastic moduli ($E_1$, $E_2$, ${\nu}_1$, ${\nu}_2$, $G_2$) due to crack growth were simulated (Kemeny, 1993; Jeon, 1996, 1998). Most of the studies have mainly focused on the verification of the mechanical crack model with relatively less attempt to apply it to practical purposes such as numerical analysis for underground and/or slope design. In this study, the validity of mechanical crack model was checked out by simulating the non-linear behavior of rock and consequently it was applied to a practical numerical analysis, finite element analysis commonly used.

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The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.169-206
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    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

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