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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Statistical Characteristics of East Sea Mesoscale Eddies Detected, Tracked, and Grouped Using Satellite Altimeter Data from 1993 to 2017 (인공위성 고도계 자료(1993-2017년)를 이용하여 탐지‧추적‧분류한 동해 중규모 소용돌이의 통계적 특성)

  • LEE, KYUNGJAE;NAM, SUNGHYUN;KIM, YOUNG-GYU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2019
  • Energetic mesoscale eddies in the East Sea (ES) associated with strong mesoscale variability impacting circulation and environments were statistically characterized by analyzing satellite altimeter data collected during 1993-2017 and in-situ data obtained from four cruises conducted between 2015 and 2017. A total of 1,008 mesoscale eddies were detected, tracked, and identified and then classified into 27 groups characterized by mean lifetime (L, day), amplitude (H, m), radius (R, km), intensity per unit area (EI, $cm^2/s^2/km^2$), ellipticity (e), eddy kinetic energy (EKE, TJ), available potential energy (APE, TJ), and direction of movement. The center, boundary, and amplitude of mesoscale eddies identified from satellite altimeter data were compared to those from the in-situ observational data for the four cases, yielding uncertainties in the center position of 2-10 km, boundary position of 10-20 km, and amplitude of 0.6-5.9 cm. The mean L, H, R, EI, e, EKE, and APE of the ES mesoscale eddies during the total period are $95{\pm}104$ days, $3.5{\pm}1.5cm$, $39{\pm}6km$, $0.023{\pm}0.017cm^2/s^2/km^2$, $0.72{\pm}0.07$, $23{\pm}21TJ$, and $588{\pm}250TJ$, respectively. The ES mesoscale eddies tend to move following the mean surface current rather than propagating westward. The southern groups (south of the subpolar front) have a longer L, larger H, R, and higher EKE, APE; and stronger EI than those of the northern groups and tend to move a longer distance following surface currents. There are exceptions to the average characteristics, such as the quasi-stationary groups (the Wonsan Warm, Wonsan Cold, Western Japan Basin Warm, and Northern Subpolar Frontal Cold Eddy groups) and short-lived groups with a relatively larger H, higher EKE, and APE and stronger EI (the Yamato Coastal Warm, Central Yamato Warm, and Eastern Japan Basin Coastal Warm eddy groups). Small eddies in the northern ES hardly resolved using the satellite altimetry data only, were not identified here and discussed with potential over-estimations of the mean L, H, R, EI, EKE, and APE. This study suggests that the ES mesoscale eddies 1) include newly identified groups such as the Hokkaido and the Yamato Rise Warm Eddies in addition to relatively well-known groups (e.g., the Ulleung Warm and the Dok Cold Eddies); 2) have a shorter L; smaller H, R, and lower EKE; and stronger EI and higher APE than those of the global ocean, and move following surface currents rather than propagating westward; and 3) show large spatial inhomogeneity among groups.

The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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Studies on the Inheritance of Heading Date in Wheat(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell) (소맥(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell)의 출수기 유전에 관한 연구)

  • Chang-Hwan Cho
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.15
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 1974
  • Introducing genes for earliness of wheat varieties is important to develop early varieties in winter wheat. In oder to obtain basic informations on the response of heading to the different day length and temperature treatments and on the inheritance of heading dates, experiments were conducted at the field and greenhouse of the Crop Experiment Station, Suwon. Varieties used in this experiments were, early variety Yecora F70, medium varieties Suke #169, Parker and Yukseung #3, and late varieties Changkwang, Bezostaia, Sturdy and Blueboy. The parents and F$_1$s of partial diallel crosses of above eight varieties were subjected the following four different treatments; 1. high temperature and long day, 2. high temperature and short day, 3. low temperature and long day, and 4. low temperature and short day. The same materials were grown also in field condition. Parents, F$_1$ and F$_2$ generation were grown also in both greenhouse under high temperature and short day and in field. The results obtained were summarized as follow: 1. No effects of temperature and daylength on the number of leaves on the main stem were found when -varieties were vernalized. The number of main stem leaves were fewer for spring type of varieties than for winter type of varieties. 2. The effects of temperature and daylength on the days to flag leaf opening were dependent on the speed of leaf emergence. The speed of leaf emergence were faster for lower leaves than for upper leaves. 3. The response to short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) of varieties were found to be direct factor responsible to physiology of heading dates in vernalized varieties. Great difference of varieties to heading date was found in high temperature and short day treatment, but less differences were found in high temperature and long day, low temperature and long day and low temperature and short day treatments respectively. The least varietal difference for heading dates was found in the field condition. 4. Changkwang and Parker were found to be the most sensitive to short day treatment (photosensitive) and the heading of these varieties were delayed by short day treatment. No great varietal differences were found among other varieties. 5. Varietal differences of heading dates due to daylength were greater in high temperature than in low temperature. 6. Varietal differences of heading dates due to temperature were not great. but in general the heading dates of varieties were faster under high temperature than under low temperature. 7. Earliness of heading dates was due to partial dominance effect of genes involved in any condition. The degree of dominance was greater under short day than under long day treatment. 8. The varietal differences of heading date under high temperature and long day were due to earliness or narrow sense (response to long day) of varieties. The degree of dominance was greater for Yecora F70, spring type than for other winter type of varieties. No differences or less differences of degree of dominance was found among winter type of varieties. The estimated number of effective factor concerned in the earliness of narrow sense was one pair of allele with minor genes. 9. The insensitivity of varieties to short day treatment in heading dates was due to single dominant gene effect. Under the low temperature the sensitivity of varieties to short day treatment was less apparent. 10. The earliness of short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) sensitivities of varieties appearea to be due to partial dominance of earliness over lateness. In strict sense, the degree of the dominance should be distinguished. 11. Dominant gene effects were found for the thermo-sensitivity of varieties, and the effect was less, significant than the earliness in narrow sense. 12. One pair of allele, ee and EE, for photosensitivity was responsible for the difference in the heading dates between Changkwang and Suke #169. Two pairs of alleles, ee, enen and EE, EnEn. appeared to be responsible for the difference between Changkwang and Yecora F70. The effects of EE and EnEn were, additive to the earliness and the effects of EE were greater than EnEn under short day. However, the effects of EE were not evident in long day but the effects of EnEn were observed in long day. 13. Two pairs of dominant alleles for the earliness were estimated from the analysis of F$_1$ diallels in the field but the effects of these alleles in F$_2$ were not apparent due to low temperature and short day treatment in early part of growth and high temperature and long day treatment in later part of growth. The F$_2$ population shows continuous variation due to environmental effects and due to other minor gene effects. 14. The heritabilities for heading dates were ranged from 0.51 to 0.72, indicating that the selection in early generation might be effective. The extent of heritability for heading dates varied with environments; higher magnitude of heritability was obtained in short day treatment and high temperature compared with long day and low temperature treatments. The heritabilities of heading date due to response to short day were 0.86 in high temperature and 0.76 in low temperature. The heritabilities of heading date due to temperature were not significantly high. 15. The correlation coefficients of heading dates to the number of grains per spike, weight of 1, 000 grains. and grain yield were positive and high, indicating the difficulties of selections of high yielding lines from early population. But no significant correlation coefficient was obtained between the earliness and the number of spikes, indicating the effective selection for high tillering from early varieties for high yielding.

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A Morphological Study of Bamboos by Vascular Bundle Sheath (대나무류(類)의 유관속초(維管束鞘)에 의(依)한 형태학적(形態學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jai Saing
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.13-47
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    • 1975
  • Among the many species of bamboo, it is well known that the dwarf-type is widely distributed in the tropical regions, and the slender type in temperated zone. In the temperated zone the trees have extensively differentiated into one hundred species in 50 genera. In many oriental countries, the bamboo wood is being used as a material for construction and for the manufacture of technical instruments. The bamboo shoot is also regarded as a good and delicious edible resource. Moreover, recent medical investigation verifies that the sap of certain species of the bamboo is an antibiotic effect against cancer. Fortunately, it is very easy to propagate the bamboo trees by using cutting from southeastern Asian countries. This important resource can further be used as a significant source of pulp, which is becoming increasingly important. The classification system of this significant resource has not been completely established to date, even though its importance has been emphasized. Initiated by Canlevon Linne in the 18th century, a classification method concerning the morphological characteristics of flowers was the first step in developing a classification. But it was not an easy task to accomplish, because this type of classification system is based on the sexual organs in bamboo trees. Because the bamboo has a long life cycle of 60-120 years and classification according to this method was very difficult as the materials for the classification are not abundant and some species have changed, even though many references related to the morphological classification of bamboo trees are available nowadays. So, the certification of bamboo trees according to the morphological classification system is not reasonable for us. Consequently, the classification system of bamboo trees on the basis of endomorphological characteristics was initiated by Chinese-born Liese. And classification method based on the morphological characteristics of the vascular bundle was developed by Grosser. These classification methods are fundamentally related to Holltum's classification method, which stressed the morphology of the ovary. The author investigated to re-establish a new classification method based on the vascular sheath. Twenty-six species in 11 genera which originated from Formosa where used in the study. The results obtained from the investigation were somewhat coordinated with those of Crosser. Many difficulties were found in distinguishing the species of Bambusa and Dendrocalamus. These two species were critically differentiated under the new classification system, which is based on the existence of a separated vascular bundle sheath in the bamboo. According to these results, it is recommended that Babusa divided into two groups by placing it into either subspecies or the lower categories. This recommendation is supported by the observation that the evolutional pattern of the bamboo thunk which is from outward to inward. It is also supported by the viewpoint that the fundamental hypothesis in evolution is from simple to complex. There remained many problems to be solved through more critical examination by comparing the results to those of the classification based on the sexual organs method. The author observed the figure of the cross-sectional area of vascular trunk of bamboo tree and compared the results with those of Grosser and Liese, i.e. A, $B_1$, $B_2$, C, and D groups in classification. Group A and $B_2$ were in accordance with the results of those scholars, while group D showed many differences, Grosser and Liese divided bamboo into "g" type and "h" type according to the vascular bundle type; and they included Dendrocalamus and Bambusa in Group D without considering the type of vascular bundle sheath. However, the results obtained by the author showed that Dendrocalamus and Bambusa are differentiated from each other. By considering another group, "i" identified according to the existence of separated vascular bundle sheath. Bambusa showed to have a separated vascular bundle sheath while Dendrocalamus does not have a separated vascular bundle sheath. Moreover, Bambusa showed peculiar characteristics in the figure of vascular development, i.e., one with an inward vascular bundle sheath and the other with a bivascular bundle sheath (inward and outward). In conclusion, the bamboo species used in this experiment were classified in group D, without any separated vascular bundle sheath, and in group E, with a vascular bundle sheath. Group E was divided into two groups, i.e., and group $E_1$, with bivascular sheath, and group $E_2$, with only an inward vascular sheath. Therefore, the Bambusa in group D as described by Grosser and Liese was included in group E. Dendrocalamus seemed to be the middle group between group $E_l$ and group $E_2$ under this classification system which is summarized as follows: Phyllostachys-type: Group A - Phyllostachys, Chymonobambus, Arundinaria, Pseudosasa, Pleioblastus, Yashania Pome-type: Group $B_2$ - Schizostachyum, Melocanna Hemp-type: Group D - Dendrocalamu Bambu-type: Group $E_1$ - Bambusa ghi.

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The Characteristics and Performances of Manufacturing SMEs that Utilize Public Information Support Infrastructure (공공 정보지원 인프라 활용한 제조 중소기업의 특징과 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Keun-Hwan;Kwon, Taehoon;Jun, Seung-pyo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2019
  • The small and medium sized enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) are already at a competitive disadvantaged when compared to large companies with more abundant resources. Manufacturing SMEs not only need a lot of information needed for new product development for sustainable growth and survival, but also seek networking to overcome the limitations of resources, but they are faced with limitations due to their size limitations. In a new era in which connectivity increases the complexity and uncertainty of the business environment, SMEs are increasingly urged to find information and solve networking problems. In order to solve these problems, the government funded research institutes plays an important role and duty to solve the information asymmetry problem of SMEs. The purpose of this study is to identify the differentiating characteristics of SMEs that utilize the public information support infrastructure provided by SMEs to enhance the innovation capacity of SMEs, and how they contribute to corporate performance. We argue that we need an infrastructure for providing information support to SMEs as part of this effort to strengthen of the role of government funded institutions; in this study, we specifically identify the target of such a policy and furthermore empirically demonstrate the effects of such policy-based efforts. Our goal is to help establish the strategies for building the information supporting infrastructure. To achieve this purpose, we first classified the characteristics of SMEs that have been found to utilize the information supporting infrastructure provided by government funded institutions. This allows us to verify whether selection bias appears in the analyzed group, which helps us clarify the interpretative limits of our study results. Next, we performed mediator and moderator effect analysis for multiple variables to analyze the process through which the use of information supporting infrastructure led to an improvement in external networking capabilities and resulted in enhancing product competitiveness. This analysis helps identify the key factors we should focus on when offering indirect support to SMEs through the information supporting infrastructure, which in turn helps us more efficiently manage research related to SME supporting policies implemented by government funded institutions. The results of this study showed the following. First, SMEs that used the information supporting infrastructure were found to have a significant difference in size in comparison to domestic R&D SMEs, but on the other hand, there was no significant difference in the cluster analysis that considered various variables. Based on these findings, we confirmed that SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure are superior in size, and had a relatively higher distribution of companies that transact to a greater degree with large companies, when compared to the SMEs composing the general group of SMEs. Also, we found that companies that already receive support from the information infrastructure have a high concentration of companies that need collaboration with government funded institution. Secondly, among the SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure, we found that increasing external networking capabilities contributed to enhancing product competitiveness, and while this was no the effect of direct assistance, we also found that indirect contributions were made by increasing the open marketing capabilities: in other words, this was the result of an indirect-only mediator effect. Also, the number of times the company received additional support in this process through mentoring related to information utilization was found to have a mediated moderator effect on improving external networking capabilities and in turn strengthening product competitiveness. The results of this study provide several insights that will help establish policies. KISTI's information support infrastructure may lead to the conclusion that marketing is already well underway, but it intentionally supports groups that enable to achieve good performance. As a result, the government should provide clear priorities whether to support the companies in the underdevelopment or to aid better performance. Through our research, we have identified how public information infrastructure contributes to product competitiveness. Here, we can draw some policy implications. First, the public information support infrastructure should have the capability to enhance the ability to interact with or to find the expert that provides required information. Second, if the utilization of public information support (online) infrastructure is effective, it is not necessary to continuously provide informational mentoring, which is a parallel offline support. Rather, offline support such as mentoring should be used as an appropriate device for abnormal symptom monitoring. Third, it is required that SMEs should improve their ability to utilize, because the effect of enhancing networking capacity through public information support infrastructure and enhancing product competitiveness through such infrastructure appears in most types of companies rather than in specific SMEs.