• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한 환경

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Impacts of Climate Change and Follow-up Cropping Season Shift on Growing Period and Temperature in Different Rice Maturity Types (미래 기후변화 및 그에 따른 재배시기 조정이 벼 생태형별 생육기간과 생육온도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kwak, Kang-Su;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Son, Ji-Young;Yang, Won-Ha
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.233-243
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    • 2011
  • This experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of future climate change on growing period and temperature in different rice maturity types as global warming progressed, where Odaebyeo, Hwaseongbyeo, Ilpumbyeo were used as a representative cultivar of early, medium, and medium-late rice maturity type, respectively, and A1B scenario was applied to weather data for future climate change at 57 sites in Korea. When cropping season was not adjusted to climate change, entire growing period and growing temperature were shorten and risen, respectively, as global warming progressed. On the other side, when cropping season was adjusted to climate change, growing period and temperature after heading date were not changed in contrast to growing period and growing temperature before heading which were more seriously shortened and risen as global warming progressed than in not adjusted cropping season. It is supposed that adjusting cropping season to climate change can alleviate rice yield reduction and quality deterioration to some degree by improving growing temperature condition during grain-filling period, but also still have a limit such as seriously shortened growing period indicating that there need to develope actively new rice cultivation methods and varieties for future climate change.

A Study on the Forest Vegetation of Deogyusan National Park (덕유산 국립공원 삼림식생에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Hwan;Oh, Jang-Geun;Lee, Nam-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2013
  • From March 2012 to January 2013, this study was conducted as a part of the project for making a precise electronic ecological zoning map of vegetation on a highly reduced scale of 1 to 5,000 with a view to improving management efficiency of national parks and enlarging the availability of the data produced from the basic research monitoring the resources of national parks. For the research accuracy and rapidity, a vegetation map was specially created for the on-the-site-vegetation research. To make the map more meticulous, we categorized the vegetation database into five groups: broadleaved forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest, rock vegetation and miscellaneous one. After comparing the results of the data built for the vegetation research and the actual research findings, it was made clear that vegetation of both categories was almost the same in case of broad-leaved forest with 72.20% and 78.45% respectively, and also equivalent in other groups like, for example, coniferous forest (16.70%, 13.41%), mixed forest (9.50%, 7.49%) and rock vegetation (0.60%, 0.15%). According to the precise vegetation map produced from the research, the deciduous broad-leaved forest was the most widely prevalent type in the correlated hierarchical classification of vegetation, occupying 65.78% of the overall vegetation. It was followed by mountain valley forest (15.17%), coniferous forest (10.90%), and plantation forest (7.00%) in order. It is particularly noteworthy that Mt. Deogyusan national park has retained a very stable and versatile forest vegetation in the outstanding state since approximately 20% of the mountain turns out to belong to the I grade vegetation conservation classification which contains climax forests, unique vegetation, subalpine vegetation, matured stands which are older than 50 years and etc.

An Analysis of the Dynamics between Media Coverage and Stock Market on Digital New Deal Policy: Focusing on Companies Related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (디지털 뉴딜 정책에 대한 언론 보도량과 주식 시장의 동태적 관계 분석: 4차산업혁명 관련 기업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2021
  • In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.

District 9 : Science Fiction as Social Critique (<디스트릭트 9> 사회비평으로서의 공상과학)

  • Cho, Peggy C.
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.42
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the ways District 9, a film released in 2009, reworks the sci-fi genre to explore the human encounter with "other" alien populations. Like Avatar, released in the same year, District 9 addresses the tropes of conflict over land and human-alien hybridity and introduces non-humans and aliens, not as invaders, but as objects of human oppression and cruelty. Unlike many other science fiction films where the encounter between humans and non-humans occurs in an unidentifiable future time and location, District 9 crosses genre barriers to engage with urban realism, producing a social critique of contemporary urban population problems. The arrival of aliens in District 9 occurs as part of the recorded human past and the film's action is carried out in the present time in the specifically identified city of Johannesburg. A distinctly anti-Hollywood film that locates the action at the street level, District 9 plays out human anxieties about contact with others by referencing the divisions and conflicts historically attached to South Africa's sprawling metropolis and its current problems of urban poverty and illegal immigrants. Focusing on how this particular urban setting frames the film, the study investigates the ways Blomkamp's sci-fi film about extra-terrestrials presents a curious postcolonial mix of aliens and immigrants surviving in abject conditions in an urban slum and forces a realistic examination of the contemporary social problems faced by South Africa's largest city and by extension other major global cities. The paper also examines the film's representation of the human-alien hybrid and its potential as a force to resist human exploitation of the other. It also claims that though the setting is highly local, District 9 speaks to a wider global audience by making obvious the exploitative practices of profit-seeking multinationals. A sci-fi film that is keen on making a social commentary on urban population conflicts, District 9 resonates with the wider sense of insecurity and fear of others that form the horizon of the uncertain and potentially violent contemporary human world.

A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.

Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

Simplified Method for Estimation of Mean Residual Life of Rubble-mound Breakwaters (경사제의 평균 잔류수명 추정을 위한 간편법)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2022
  • A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.

Reliability Analysis on Stability of Armor Units for Foundation Mound of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 기초 마운드의 피복재 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

A Study on the Effect of Organizational Trust of the Container Terminal Operators' Employee on Organizational Citizenship Behavior -Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Organizational Support- (컨테이너터미널 운영사 구성원의 조직신뢰가 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향 -조직적 후원의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ik-Seong;Seon, Hwa;Kim, Hyun-Deok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.65-100
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the effects of organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee on organizational citizenship behavior and the moderating effect of organizational support in the relationship between the two variables. In order to efficiently achieve the purpose of this study, an empirical analysis was conducted by distributing a literature review and a questionnaire, and the results of the study are as follows... First, the organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee was found to have a significant positive (+) effect on organizational citizenship behavior, and trust in the company appeared to be more important than trust in the superior, indicating trust in the institutional aspect. This means that formation has more influence on organizational citizenship behavior... Second, it was confirmed that the organizational support of the container terminal operators' employee can lead to active participation in organizational citizenship behavior through the expansion of educational compensatory support. Third, among the organizational support of container terminal operators, emotional support and educational compensatory support were found to have a partial moderating effect on the relationship between organizational trust and organizational citizenship behavior." Emotional support has a moderating effect on caring and active participation behaviors in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behaviors, and a moderating effect on caring, active participation, and non-complaining behaviors in the relationship between trust in superiors and organizational citizenship behaviors. It was analyzed that there is Compensatory educational support has a moderating effect on altruistic, caring, active participation, and non-complaining behavior in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behavior. It was analyzed that there was a moderating effect on active participation and non-complaining behavior. These analysis results mean that members' trust in the company further increases through the container terminal operator's emotional support and educational reward support. As uncertainty grows, it is very important to increase the trust of organizational members in the organization. sense of belonging to the organization, Emotional support that can increase immersion, improvement of work environment, provision of educational opportunities, and education-compensatory support such as a fair compensation system will increase organizational trust and induce effective organizational citizenship behavior to realize sustainable growth of the organization.