• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한 환경

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Determination of EMCs for Rainfall Ranges from Transportation Landuses (교통관련 토지이용에서의 강우계급별 EMC 산정)

  • Lee, So-Young;Maniquiz, Marla C.;Choi, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Lee-Hyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2009
  • The contribution of pollutant loadings from non-point source (NPS) to the four major rivers in Korea exceeded 22~37 % of the total loadings in 2004 and is expected to reach 60 % in 2020. Most of NPS loadings are coming from urban areas, especially from paved areas. Because of high imperviousness rate, many types of NPS pollutant are accumulating on the surface during dry periods. The accumulated pollutants are wash-off during a storm and highly degrading the water quality of receiving water bodies. For this reason, the Korean Ministry of Environment (MOE) developed the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to protect the water quality by managing the point source and NPS loadings. NPS has high uncertainties during a storm because of the characteristics of rainfall and watershed areas. The rainfall characteristics can affect on event mean concentrations (EMCs), mass loadings, flow rate, etc. Therefore, this research was performed to determine EMCs for rainfall ranges from transportation landuses such as road and parking lot. Two sites were monitored over 45 storm events during the 2006/06 through 2008/10 storm seasons. Mean TSS EMCs decrease as rainfall ranges increase and highest at less than 10mm rainfall. The results of this study can be used to determine the efficient scale of BMP facility considering specific rainfall range.

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Quantitative Assessment of Nonpoint Source using the Basin Model (유역모형을 이용한 비점오염원의 정량적 평가)

  • Kwon, Heon-Gak;Kim, Dong-Il;Lee, Jea-Woon;Han, Kun-Yeun;Cheon, Se-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.141-141
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    • 2012
  • 비점오염물질은 강우 시 유출되기 때문에 일간, 계절 간 유출량 변화가 대단히 크게 나타나며, 기후, 지형, 토지이용, 토양 등과 지역적인 특성과 유역 형상에 따라 변화되므로 비점오염원 유출량에 대한 정량화를 위해서는 강우지속시간동안 정확한 수질과 유량에 대한 측정 자료가 요구된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 비점오염물질에 대해 현장 모니터링 및 현장 실측 관련 기존 연구자료 수집을 통해 중분류 토지피복분류별 원단위를 산정하였다. 또한 특정 유역에 중분류 토지피복 분류별 산정된 원단위를 적용하여 유역기반의 비점오염부하량을 산정 하였다. 대상 유역에 해당하는 하천 말단에서의 실측 자료를 활용하여 유역모형을 구축하고, 강우를 입력 자료로 하여 비점오염 물질별 부하량을 모의 산정하였다. 유역모형으로 HSPF(Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran)을 실제 대상유역에 적용하였고, 이에 따른 모의 결과를 실측치와 비교하여 부하량을 산정하였다. 이렇게 모의 산정된 부하량은 실측자료를 기반으로 산정된 원단위의 적용에 따른 부하량과 비교 검토하여 유역에 대한 비점오염원 부하량 산정 시 모형의 적용 가능성을 평가하였다. 본 연구에 적용된 대상유역은 동천유역으로 병성천의 주요 지류로서 유역의 상단에 위치하고 있다. 중분류 토지피복 중 공업지역, 교통지역, 과수원재배지, 비닐하우스재배지, 기타재배지에 대해서는 2008년부터 2010년까지 모니터링을 실시하였고, 이외의 중분류 토지피복에 대한 결과는 수계별 현재까지 진행되고 있는 환경기초조사사업 중 '주요 비점오염원 유출 장기 모니터링'사업의 자료를 활용하였다. 동천유역의 비점오염원 발생부하량을 산정한 결과, BOD 부하량은 대지의 경우 391.4 kg/day로서 중분류 군으로 구분한 결과에 비해 높게 산정되었다. T-N, T-P 발생부하량도 토지피복군이 대분류에서 중분류로 변화됨에 따라 부하량의 차이가 발생 하였다. 또한 동천유역에 대해 구축된 HSPF 모형의 적합도를 시기별 4개의 Case로 구분하여 평가해 보았는데 그 결과, 모형 모의치의 실측치에 대한 적합도가 높게 평가 되었다. 현재 특정 지역에 편중되어 조사되고 있는 중분류 토지피복을 조사 기관간의 교차 조사를 통해 지역적 제한성을 낮추고, 중분류에 속하는 세부피복지점을 확대하여 모니터링 지점의 다양성을 확보하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. 이와 동시에 한시적인 조사가 아닌, 장기간에 걸쳐 연구가 진행 될 경우 원단위에 대한 현재의 불확실성 및 제한성을 줄일 수 있을 것으로 판단되므로, 이러한 기초 자료 확보에 대한 장기적인 투자와 노력이 수반될 시 우리나라에 대표적으로 적용할 수 있는 비점오염원 원단위가 산정될 것으로 생각되며, 이러한 기틀이 마련되어야 비점오염원에 대한 적절한 유역관리방안을 수립할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

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The Water Quality Analysis on Climate Change and Dam construction (기후변화와 저수지 건설에 따른 수질분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Il;Choi, Hyun-Gu;Park, Tae-Won;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.193-193
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    • 2011
  • 국제기구인 정부간 기후변화협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 이하 IPCC)에서는 기후변화가 기온 상승에 따른 증발산량의 증가, 강수량 및 유출량의 시공간적 분포의 변동 등을 초래하여 수자원의 효율적 관리 및 안정적인 공급에 어려움을 증대시킬 것으로 전망하였다. 또한 IPCC 4차 보고서에 따르면 21세기말 지구의 평균기온은 현재보다 최대 $6.3^{\circ}C$정도 더 상승할 것으로 전망하였다. 전구평균기온이 $3.0^{\circ}C$ 증가할 경우 아시아에서만 연간 700만 명이상이 홍수피해 위기에 직면할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 국내의 경우 기온은 전구평균기온에 비해 2배 이상 높은 $1.5^{\circ}C$ 정도 상승하였으며, 최근 50년간의 강우일수는 감소한 반면 일강수량이 80mm 이상인 호우일수의 발생빈도는 증가되고 있다고 보고되었다. 또한 최근의 물수지 해석과 관련하여 거시적인 관점에서 기온 및 강수량 증가에 따른 물순환 과정을 모의하고, 농업용수, 댐건설, 도시화, 토지이용의 변화 등 인위적인 환경 변화 및 기후변화에 따른 유출량의 변화를 정량화하려는 연구들이 수행되고 있다(한국건설기술원, 2007). 이를 위하여 단기적이 아니라 장기적인 측면에서 유출분석을 할 필요가 있으나, 현재까지 보유하고 있는 실측 자료의 한계 및 이러한 조사를 위해 요구되는 시간 및 비용의 한계 때문에, 유출해석 모형을 주로 이용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 장래 건설예정인 미계측 호소의 유량과 수질을 모의하기 위하여 하천, 하구, 호소 및 해역에 고루 적용할 수 있는 3차원 수리 동력학적인 모델인 EFDC 모형과 시간의 변화에 따른 수질을 모의하는데 가장 널리 이용하는 WASP 모형을 도입하였다. 향후, 내성천의 영주댐 건설과 같은 큰 변화가 발생하였을 기후 변화의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 EFDC와 WASP모형을 이용하여 대상유역에 대한 유출량과 수온의 변화를 통하여 A2, B1 기후변화 시나리오별로 2020년, 2050년, 2080년의 수질(BOD, TN, TP)변화를 분석하여 보았다. 연구의 결과는 다음과 같이 나타났다. EFDC 및 WASP 모형의 연계를 통한 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 미래의 저수지 수질예측 모의를 수행한 결과, BOD, TN, TP 등 수질농도 변화는 2020년에서 2080년도로 갈수록 BOD, TN 다소 증가하는 경향을 나타내었고, TP농도는 감소하였다. 시나리오별 변화 특성은 TN, TP 농도는 A2 시나리오가 다소 높고, BOD 농도는 B1 시나리오가 A2보다 높은 것으로 나타났다. EFDC와 WASP을 이용하여 미계측 호소에 대한 기후변화 시나리오별로 적용하여 수질변화를 예측하여 보았는데, 향후 기후변화에 따른 기온, 유량변화와 수질 항목간의 상간관계 정립 및 수질 모의의 불확실성 등에 대한 추가 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Effect of the Spread on Housing Mortgage Loans (가산금리가 주택담보대출에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Woo Seok
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.75-88
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans. In particular, this study analyzes how the spread has a decisive effect on housing mortgage loans when a structural change occurs in the spread. For the sake of empirical analysis, this study utilizes the housing mortgage loan, housing mortgage loan interest rate, COFIX interest rate, and spread. The period of analysis is from December 2010 to December 2017. Results of the analysis show that there is a statistically significant structural change in the spread and housing mortgage loans (May and June 2015, respectively). It is estimated that the structural change in the spread has an influence on the structural change in housing mortgage loans. In addition, the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans is larger than the effect of the COFIX interest rate and the housing mortgage loan interest rate. This indicates that the adjustment of the spread is a significant burden on housing mortgage loans. As economic uncertainties both internally and externally are increasing, pressure on interest rate hikes is also increasing. Considering these circumstances, interest rate hikes will be inevitable in the future. If the base interest rate and the spread increase simultaneously at Korea's current economic level, it will obviously lead to an economic recession as the burden on the repayment of principal and interest of housing mortgage loans will increase. Therefore, it is imperative that financial authorities prepare institutional arrangements in order to protect financial consumers by preventing arbitrary calculation of the spread, which would not be objective and would not be transparent from the banks.

Innovation Patterns of Machine Learning and a Birth of Niche: Focusing on Startup Cases in the Republic of Korea (머신러닝 혁신 특성과 니치의 탄생: 한국 스타트업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kang, Songhee;Jin, Sungmin;Pack, Pill Ho
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2021
  • As the Great Reset is discussed at the World Economic Forum due to the COVID-19 pandemic, artificial intelligence, the driving force of the 4th industrial revolution, is also in the spotlight. However, corporate research in the field of artificial intelligence is still scarce. Since 2000, related research has focused on how to create value by applying artificial intelligence to existing companies, and research on how startups seize opportunities and enter among existing businesses to create new value can hardly be found. Therefore, this study analyzed the cases of startups using the comprehensive framework of the multi-level perspective with the research question of how artificial intelligence based startups, a sub-industry of software, have different innovation patterns from the existing software industry. The target firms are gazelle firms that have been certified as venture firms in South Korea, as start-ups within 7 years of age, specializing in machine learning modeling purposively sampled in the medical, finance, marketing/advertising, e-commerce, and manufacturing fields. As a result of the analysis, existing software companies have achieved process innovation from an enterprise-wide integration perspective, in contrast machine learning technology based startups identified unit processes that were difficult to automate or create value by dismantling existing processes, and automate and optimize those processes based on data. The contribution of this study is to analyse the birth of artificial intelligence-based startups and their innovation patterns while validating the framework of an integrated multi-level perspective. In addition, since innovation is driven based on data, the ability to respond to data-related regulations is emphasized even for start-ups, and the government needs to eliminate the uncertainty in related systems to create a predictable and flexible business environment.

Analysis of Streamflow Characteristics of Boryeong-dam Watershed using Global Optimization Technique by Infiltraion Methods of CAT (CAT 모형의 침투해석방법별 전역최적화기법을 이용한 보령댐 유역의 유출 특성 변화 분석)

  • Park, Sanghyun;Kim, Hyeonjun;Jang, Cheolhee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.412-424
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the changes of the streamflow characteristics of the watershed were analysed depending on the infiltration methods of CAT. The study area, Boryeong-dam watershed located in Chungcheongnam-do area, has been suffered from severe drought in recent years and stabilized regarding on the storage rate through efforts such as constructing a channel connecting the upstream of Boryeong-dam from the downstream of the Geum river. In this study, the effects of soil infiltration parameters on the watershed streamflow characteristics were analyzed by the infiltration methods of CAT such as Rainfall Excess, Green&Ampt and Horton. And the parameter calibrations were conducted by SCEUA-P, a global optimization technique module of the PEST, the package for parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis, to compare the yearly variations of soil parameters for infiltration methods of CAT. In addition, the streamflow characteristics were analyzed for three infiltration methods by applying three different scenarios, such as applying calibrated parameters for every years to simulate the model for each years, applying calibrated parameters for the entire period to simulate the model for entire period, and applying the average value of yearly calibrated parameters to simulate the model for entire period.

An Analysis of Intensity Attenuation Characteristics by Physics-based Strong Ground-Motion Simulation (물리적 지진모델링 기반 강지진동 모사를 통한 진도 감쇠 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Su-Kyong;Song, Seok Goo;Kyung, Jai Bok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyzed the intensity attenuation for M 6.0, 6.5, and 7.0 earthquakes using the broadband strong ground motion simulation platform based on the physical seismic modeling developed by the US Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The location of the earthquake was assumed to be near the epicenter of the 2016 M 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake, but two of the representative US regional models provided by the SCEC strong ground motion simulation platform were used for the propagation model. One is the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) model representing the intraplate region, and the other is the LA Basin model representing the interplate region. Five modeling methodologies are presented in the version 16.5 of the simulation platform, and Song and Exsim models were used in this study. In the analysis, we found that different intensity attenuation patterns can be observed with the same magnitude of earthquakes, especially depending on the region (CEUS vs LA Basin). Given the same magnitude and distance, the instrumental intensity in the CEUS region (intraplate) could be larger by a unit of 2 than that in the LA Basin region (interplate). Given the difference of intensity attenuation patterns observed in the study, it is important to know the regional intensity attenuation characteristics to understand the accurate level of seismic hazard imposed in the Korean Peninsula. This study also shows the level of the uncertainty of intensity attenuation if region specific attenuation characteristics are not considered.

A Study on the Research Trends for Smart City using Topic Modeling (토픽 모델링을 활용한 스마트시티 연구동향 분석)

  • Park, Keon Chul;Lee, Chi Hyung
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to analyze the research trends on Smart City and to present implications to policy maker, industry professional, and researcher. Cities around globe have undergone the rapid progress in urbanization and the consequent dramatic increase in urban dwellings over the past few decades, and faced many urban problems in such areas as transportation, environment and housing. Cities around the globe are in a hurry to introduce Smart City to pursue a common goal of solving these urban problems and improving the quality of their lives. However, various conceptual approaches to smart city are causing uncertainty in setting policy goals and establishing direction for implementation. The study collected 11,527 papers titled "Smart City(cities)" from the Scopus DB and Springer DB, and then analyze research status, topic, trends based on abstracts and publication date(year) information using the LDA based Topic Modeling approaches. Research topics are classified into three categories(Services, Technologies, and User Perspective) and eight regarding topics. Out of eight topics, citizen-driven innovation is the most frequently referred. Additional topic network analysis reveals that data and privacy/security are the most prevailing topics affecting others. This study is expected to helps understand the trends of Smart City researches and predict the future researches.

Effects of Psychological Capital on the Job Performance of Public Enterprise Employees (심리적 자본이 공기업 종사자의 직무수행에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sung-Jong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.293-303
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this research is to investigate the psychological factors affecting job performance of public enterprise employee. Based on the literature review, three types of job performance are identified, which are behavioral responses to the demands from job environment. They are named as task performance, contextual performance, and adaptive performance. As independent variables, four factors were selected form positive psychological concepts, which are self-efficacy, hope, optimism, and resilience. These are the factors which compose of the concept of psychological capital. All the factors are hypothesized to positively affect job performances. From the regression analysis results, all the psychological factors in the model were turned out to have statistically significant impacts on the job performances. The importance of variable 'resilience' were dominant all three models, which might be interpreted as a behavioral response to the demands from uncertain organizational enviornments. From the marginal effect analysis, contextual performance decreases first five years, then reach peak at 20th. year. These results demonstrates that mid-level employees in the organizational hierarchy are more concerned with the overall performance of organization.

Preliminary Evaluation of Domestic Applicability of Deep Borehole Disposal System (심부시추공 처분시스템의 국내적용 가능성 예비 평가)

  • Lee, Jongyoul;Lee, Minsoo;Choi, Heuijoo;Kim, Kyungsu;Cho, Dongkeun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.491-505
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    • 2018
  • As an alternative to deep geological disposal technology, which is considered as a reference concept, the domestic applicability of deep borehole disposal technology for high level radioactive waste, including spent fuel, has been preliminarily evaluated. Usually, the environment of deep borehole disposal, at a depth of 3 to 5 km, has more stable geological and geo-hydrological conditions. For this purpose, the characteristics of rock distribution in the domestic area were analyzed and drilling and investigation technologies for deep boreholes with large diameter were evaluated. Based on the results of these analyses, design criteria and requirements for the deep borehole disposal system were reviewed, and preliminary reference concept for a deep borehole disposal system, including disposal container and sealing system meeting the criteria and requirements, was developed. Subsequently, various performance assessments, including thermal stability analysis of the system and simulation of the disposal process, were performed in a 3D graphic disposal environment. With these analysis results, the preliminary evaluation of the domestic applicability of the deep borehole disposal system was performed from various points of view. In summary, due to disposal depth and simplicity, the deep borehole disposal system should bring many safety and economic benefits. However, to reduce uncertainty and to obtain the assent of the regulatory authority, an in-situ demonstration of this technology should be carried out. The current results can be used as input to establish a national high-level radioactive waste management policy. In addition, they may be provided as basic information necessary for stakeholders interested in deep borehole disposal technology.