• 제목/요약/키워드: 불확실한 환경

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The Effect of Career Planning on Subjective Career Success of Organization Employees: Mediating Effects of Person-Organization Fit and Person-Job Fit (직장인의 경력계획이 주관적 경력성공에 미치는 영향: 개인-조직적합성과 개인-직무적합성의 매개효과)

  • Kim, Dongyoun;Jin, Sungmi
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.31-53
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    • 2018
  • Uncertainty of career environment driven by globalization and shift of employment context drives heavy competition of labor market and anxiety of employment for individuals. New career paradigm based on this environmental change puts emphasis on subjective career success from individual's viewpoint as important career outcome and individual's proactive career development efforts. In addition to this, importance of person-environment fit and person-job fit is growing in relationship between career planning and career success. Based on this perspective, this study aims to identify whether person-environment fit and person-job fit mediate the relationship between career development and subjective career success. Data analysis of questionnaire from 220 employees showed that both fits mediate the relationship. This result implies that individual's proactive career planning is critical to career success and this strengthens one's satisfaction to organization and job. To organization, strategies need to be developed to design career development of employees' based on their career needs and organizational intervention such as job-rotation system.

Sliding Mode Control with Super-Twisting Algorithm for Surge Oscillation of Mooring Vessel System (슈퍼트위스팅 슬라이딩모드를 이용한 선박계류시스템의 동적제어)

  • Lee, Sang-Do;Lee, Bo-Kyeong;You, Sam-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.953-959
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    • 2018
  • This paper deals with controlling surge oscillations of a mooring vessel system under large external disturbances such as wind, waves and currents. A control synthesis based on Sliding Mode Control (SMC) with a Super-Twisting Algorithm (STA) has been applied to suppress nonlinear surge oscillations of a two-point mooring system. Despite the advantages of robustness against parameter uncertainties and disturbances for SMC, chattering is the main drawback for implementing sliding mode controllers. First-order SMC shows convergence within the desired level of accuracy, in which chattering is the main obstacle related to the destructive phenomenon. Alternatively, STA completely eliminates chattering phenomenon with high accuracy even for large disturbances. SMC based on STA is an effective tool for the motion control of a nonlinear mooring system because it avoids the chattering problems of a first-order sliding mode controller. In addition, the error trajectories of controlled mooring systems implemented by means of STA form in the bounded region. Finally, the control gain effect of STA can be observed in sliding surface and position trajectory errors.

A development of multivariate drought index using the simulated soil moisture from a GM-NHMM model (GM-NHMM 기반 토양함수 모의결과를 이용한 합성가뭄지수 개발)

  • Park, Jong-Hyeon;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kwon, Hyun Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제52권8호
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2019
  • The most drought assessments are based on a drought index, which depends on univariate variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. However, there is a limitation in representing the drought conditions with single variables due to their complexity. It has been acknowledged that a multivariate drought index can more effectively describe the complex drought state. In this context, this study propose a Copula-based drought index that can jointly consider precipitation and soil moisture. Unlike precipitation data, long-term soil moisture data is not readily available so that this study utilized a Gaussian Mixture Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov chain Model (GM-NHMM) model to simulate the soil moisture using the observed precipitation and temperature ranging from 1973 to 2014. The GM-NHMM model showed a better performance in terms of reproducing key statistics of soil moisture, compared to a multiple regression model. Finally, a bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the drought duration and severity, and it was confirmed that the recent droughts over Jeollabuk-do in 2015 have a 20-year return period.

Probabilistic Kinematic Analysis of Rock Slope Stability Using Terrestrial LiDAR (지상라이다를 이용한 확률론적 해석기법 기반의 운동학적 안정성 해석)

  • Hong, Seok Kwon;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • 제52권3호
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    • pp.231-241
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    • 2019
  • Kinematic analysis determines the stability of rock slope by analyzing the relationship between the slope face orientation and the discontinuity orientation. In this study, terrestrial LiDAR was used to obtain a large amount of discontinuity orientation data and then, the probabilistic characteristics of the orientation data obtained using terrestrial LiDAR were analyzed. Subsequently, the probabilistic kinematic analysis was carried out using the discontinuity orientations generated randomly from Fisher function in Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the probabilistic kinematic analysis was also performed using the actual orientation data obtained from the terrestrial LiDAR to compare their results. Consequently, the results of both probabilistic analyses showed similar results. Therefore, if sufficient orientation data are provided by other means such as terrestrial LiDAR, the probabilistic analysis will show reasonable results using the actual field data without randomly generating orientation data. In addition, the deterministic kinematic analysis was also carried out using representative orientation of discontinuity sets. The analysis result of the probabilistic analysis showed similar results with the deterministic analysis because the dispersion of the discontinuity orientations in a joint set is not large.

A Study on National Response Strategies of Large-scale Marine Disaster (대규모 해양재난의 국가적 대응전략에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Choonjae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.550-559
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    • 2019
  • The sinking of the M/V SEWOL in April 2014 was not a mere marine accident, but a marine catastrophe. This grim case developed into a social tragedy that impinged the national sentiment and communal integrity. It is imperative that thorough provisions and measures be outlined at the national level with regard to massive marine accidents, oil pollution, and natural disasters that might critically affect government affairs. Pivoting on "The Black Swan Theory," a concept of improperly rationalizing a national crisis based on uncertainties, this research assesses a variety of response strategies that minimize the national economic and social damage caused by a large-scale marine disaster. Along with the effort of minimizing any potential defects in each protective barrier, the "Black Swan Detection System of the Marine Disaster" needs to be incorporated to prevent cases wherein such defects lead to an actual crisis. Maritime safety must be systematically unified under a supervisory organization, and a structure for maritime crisis on-scene command and cooperation must likewise be established in order that every force on the scene of a marine disaster may act effectively and consistently under the direction of an on-scene commander.

Preliminary Feasibility Study for Water Resources Policy Effect Analysis Direction (수자원분야 예비타당성 조사 정책효과 분석 방향)

  • Seong, Yeonjeong;Choi, Seungan;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2021
  • Recently, large-scale projects are required in the water resources sector considering safety and publicitythe due to uncertainty of securing water resources and changes in the ecological environment by climate change. Among these large-scale projects, the projects that fall under the preliminary feasibility study are determined by comprehensive analysis based on economic analysis, policy analysis, and balanced regional development analysis. However, most of the results of the preliminary feasibility study showed a tendency to depend heavily on economic analysis. For this reason, projects in non-metropolitan areas sometimes fail in the preliminary feasibility study. To supplement this point, the Korea Development Institute revised the standard guidelines for preliminary feasibility studies for water resources sector projects that place a high weight on policy feasibility analysis. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the cases of the preliminary feasibility study conducted previously and to suggest the direction of policy analysis in the preliminary feasibility study for water resources sector projects. For this, we analyze preliminary feasibility studies conducted for 18 years from 2002 to 2019, and suggest direction of policy analysis method using the benefit items not included in the economic analysis.

Development of Snow Depth Frequency Analysis Model Based on A Generalized Mixture Distribution with Threshold (최심신적설량 빈도분석을 위한 임계값을 가지는 일반화된 혼합분포모형 개발)

  • Kim, Ho Jun;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2020
  • An increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters have been observed due to climate change. To better prepare for these, the MOIS (ministry of the interior and safety) announced a comprehensive plan for minimizing damages associated with natural disasters, including drought and heavy snowfall. The spatial-temporal pattern of snowfall is greatly influenced by temperature and geographical features. Heavy snowfalls are often observed in Gangwon-do, surrounded by mountains, whereas less snowfall is dominant in the southern part of the country due to relatively high temperatures. Thus, snow depth data often contains zeros that can lead to difficulties in the selection of probability distribution and estimation of the parameters. A generalized mixture distribution approach to a maximum snow depth series over the southern part of Korea (i.e., Changwon, Tongyeoung, Jinju weather stations) are located is proposed to better estimate a threshold (𝛿) classifying discrete and continuous distribution parts. The model parameters, including the threshold in the mixture model, are effectively estimated within a Bayesian modeling framework, and the uncertainty associated with the parameters is also provided. Comparing to the Daegwallyeong weather station, It was found that the proposed model is more effective for the regions in which less snow depth is observed.

Prospect of future water resources in the basins of Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam using a physics-based distributed hydrological model and a deep-learning-based LSTM model (물리기반 분포형 수문 모형과 딥러닝 기반 LSTM 모형을 활용한 충주댐 및 소양강댐 유역의 미래 수자원 전망)

  • Kim, Yongchan;Kim, Youngran;Hwang, Seonghwan;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제55권12호
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    • pp.1115-1124
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    • 2022
  • The impact of climate change on water resources was evaluated for Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam basins by constructing an integrated modeling framework consisting of a dam inflow prediction model based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a distributed hydrologic model, and an LSTM based dam outflow prediction model. Considering the uncertainty of future climate data, four models of CMIP6 GCM were used as input data of VIC model for future period (2021-2100). As a result of applying future climate data, the average inflow for period increased as the future progressed, and the inflow in the far future (2070-2100) increased by up to 22% compared to that of the observation period (1986-2020). The minimum value of dam discharge lasting 4~50 days was significantly lower than the observed value. This indicates that droughts may occur over a longer period than observed in the past, meaning that citizens of Seoul metropolitan areas may experience severe water shortages due to future droughts. In addition, compared to the near and middle futures, the change in water storage has occurred rapidly in the far future, suggesting that the difficulties of water resource management may increase.

Rock Mechanics Site Characterization for HLW Disposal Facilities (고준위방사성폐기물 처분시설 부지에 대한 암반역학 부지특성화)

  • Um, Jeong-Gi;Hyun, Seung Gyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • 제55권1호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2022
  • The mechanical and thermal properties of the rock masses can affect the performance associated with both the isolating and retarding capacities of radioactive materials within the deep geological disposal system for High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW). In this study, the essential parameters for the site descriptive model (SDM) related to the rock mechanics and thermal properties of the HLW disposal facilities site were reviewed, and the technical background was explored through the cases of the preceding site descriptive models developed by SKB (Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company), Sweden and Posiva, Finland. SKB and Posiva studied parameters essential for the investigation and evaluation of mechanical and thermal properties, and derived a rock mechanics site descriptive model for safety evaluation and construction of the HLW disposal facilities. The rock mechanics SDM includes the results obtained from investigation and evaluation of the strength and deformability of intact rocks, fractures, and fractured rock masses, as well as the geometry of large-scaled deformation zones, the small-scaled fracture network system, thermal properties of rocks, and the in situ stress distribution of the disposal site. In addition, the site descriptive model should provide the sensitivity analysis results for the input parameters, and present the results obtained from evaluation of uncertainty.

Development of Probabilistic Seismic Coefficients of Korea (국내 확률론적 지진계수 생성)

  • Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Jeong, Chang-Gyun;Park, Du-Hee;Lee, Hong-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • 제25권10호
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2009
  • The seismic site coefficients are often used with the seismic hazard maps to develop the design response spectrum at the surface. The site coefficients are most commonly developed deterministically, while the seismic hazarde maps are derived probabilistically. There is, hence, an inherent incompatibility between the two approaches. However, they are used together in the seismic design codes without a clear rational basis. To resolve the fundamental imcompatibility between the site coefficients and hazard maps, this study uses a novel probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) technique that simulates the results of a standard PSHA at a rock outcrop, but integrates the site response analysis function to capture the site amplification effects within the PSHA platform. Another important advantage of the method is its ability to model the uncertainty, variability, and randomness of the soil properties. The new PSHA was used to develop fully probabilistic site coefficients for site classes of the seismic design code and another sets of site classes proposed in Korea. Comparisons highlight the pronounced discrepancy between the site coefficients of the seismic design code and the proposed coefficients, while another set of site coefficients show differences only at selected site classes.