• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한 환경

Search Result 1,340, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Human Aggregate Risk Assessment of Benzene using the CalTOX Model (CalTOX 모델을 이용한 벤젠 종합위해성평가의 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Ok;Lee, Minwoo;Song, Youngho;Choi, Jinha;Park, Sanghyun;Park, Changyoung;Lee, Jinheon
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
    • /
    • v.46 no.2
    • /
    • pp.136-149
    • /
    • 2020
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOXTM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADDinhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADDtotal. Regarding human Riskcancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was identified as the most influential variable, followed by 'exposure time, active indoors (h/day)', and 'exposure duration (years)'. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was found to be most influential.

Position Estimation of Autonomous Mobile Robot Using Geometric Information of a Moving Object (이동물체의 기하학적 위치정보를 이용한 자율이동로봇의 위치추정)

  • Jin, Tae-Seok;Lee, Jang-Myung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.438-444
    • /
    • 2004
  • The intelligent robots that will be needed in the near future are human-friendly robots that are able to coexist with humans and support humans effectively. To realize this, robots need to recognize their position and posture in known environment as well as unknown environment. Moreover, it is necessary for their localization to occur naturally. It is desirable for a robot to estimate of his position by solving uncertainty for mobile robot navigation, as one of the best important problems. In this paper, we describe a method for the localization of a mobile robot using image information of a moving object. This method combines the observed position from dead-reckoning sensors and the estimated position from the images captured by a fixed camera to localize a mobile robot. Using the a priori known path of a moving object in the world coordinates and a perspective camera model, we derive the geometric constraint equations which represent the relation between image frame coordinates for a moving object and the estimated robot's position. Since the equations are based or the estimated position, the measurement error may exist all the time. The proposed method utilizes the error between the observed and estimated image coordinates to localize the mobile robot. The Kalman filter scheme is applied for this method. its performance is verified by the computer simulation and the experiment.

Structure & Installation Engineering for Offshore Jack-up Rigs

  • Park, Joo-Shin;Ha, Yeong-Su;Jang, Ki-Bok;Radha, Radha
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.54 no.4
    • /
    • pp.39-46
    • /
    • 2017
  • Jack-up drilling rigs are widely used in offshore oil and gas exploration industry. It is originally designed for use in the shallow waters less than 60m of water depth; there is growing demand for their use in deeper water depth over 150m and harsher environmental conditions. In this study, global in-place analysis of jack-up rig leg for North-sea oil well is performed through numerical analysis. Firstly, environmental conditions and seabed characteristics at the North-sea are collected and investigated measurements from survey report. Based on these data, design specifications are established and the overall basic design is performed. Dynamic characteristics of the jack-up rig for North-sea are considered in the global in-place analysis both leg and hull and the basic stability against overturning moment is also analyzed. The structural integrity of the jack-up rig leg/hull is verified through the code checks and the adequate safety margin is observed. The uncertainty in jack-up behaviour is greatly influenced by the uncertainties in the soil characteristics that determine the resistance of the foundation to the forces imposed by the jack-up structure. Among the risks above mentioned, the punch-through during pre-loading is the most frequently encountered foundation problem for jack-up rigs. The objective of this paper is to clarify the detailed structure and installation engineering matters for prove the structural safety of jack-up rigs during operation. With this intention the following items are addressed; - Characteristics of structural behavior considering soil effect against environmental loads - Modes of failure and related pre-loading procedure and parameters - Typical results of structural engineering and verification by actual measurement.

  • PDF

Development of New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Seismic Coefficients of Korea Part I: Application and Verification of a Novel Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Procedure (신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 및 국내 지진계수 개발 Part I: 신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 기법 적용 및 검증)

  • Park, Duhee;Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Jeong, Chang-Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
    • /
    • v.10 no.7
    • /
    • pp.103-109
    • /
    • 2009
  • The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) calculates the probability of exceedance of a certain ground motion parameter within a finite period at a site of interest. PSHA is very robust in that it can account for the uncertainties in seismic source, wave passage effect, and seismic site effects and hence, it is the most widely used method in quantifying the future earthquake induced ground vibration. This paper evaluates the applicability of a new PSHA that is alleged to be able to reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA method, but generates a series of earthquake scenarios and corresponding ground motion time histories that are compatible with the scenarios. In the application, a 40,000 year period is simulated, during which 16,738 virtual earthquakes have occurred. The seismic hazard maps are generated from the outputs of the new PSHA. Comparisons with the maps generated by the conventional PSHA method demonstrated that the new PSHA can successfully reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA. The new PSHA may not be very meaningful in itself. However, the real advantage of the method is that it can be used to develop probabilisitic seismic site coefficients. The suite of generated ground motion time histories are used to develop probabilistic site coefficients in the companion paper.

  • PDF

Influence of Team Performance on the Transformational Leadership & SelfLeadership - Focus on the Employees of Public Enterprises - (팀장의 변혁적 리더십과 팀 구성원의 셀프리더십이 팀 성과에 미치는 영향 -공기업 종사자를 중심으로-)

  • Bae, Byung-ok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.766-777
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study is aimed at suggesting the implications about the utility of team system and importance of leadership through the analysis of what influence of transformational leadership and self leadership has on team performance. This study used the LMX theory & social exchange theory arguing that exchange relation quality forms between organizational members, and situational theory stating that leadership suited for business environment should be displayed as the theoretical background of this research. This study, targeting 9 domestic energy-related public enterprises, proved the research hypotheses through regression analysis under SPSS 20.0 by using the effective data on 880 respondents from 166 teams in total. As a result of the research, a team leader's transformational leadership was found to have a positive influence on team performance, and the behaviour strategy, and cognitive strategy of self leadership were found to significantly modulate the relation between a team leader's transformational leadership and team performance, thus getting to adopt all of the initially-set research hypotheses. The salient point was that the effect was found to be much stronger from the group whose self leadership was low. What this research results imply is that if a team leader in team organization should look to it that team members themselves could be self-motivated by assigning goals, which can be put into practice with concern, to the members of a group whose self leadership is relatively low, team performance could improve more clearly than would otherwise be the case.

유기성 폐기물 간접부담금의 도입과 바이오가스 생산보조 정책의 일반균형효과 분석

  • Bae, Jeong-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.175-210
    • /
    • 2012
  • As London and post-Koyto protocols presumably affect emission of organic waste in Korea in 2012, appropriate treatment of organic waste becomes very important. Organic wastes are regarded as non-point pollutants. It has been criticized that direct emission charges on the emission of non-point pollutants are not effective due to the high uncertainty in the relationship between pollution sources and pollution levels. This study suggests indirect emission charges on production of livestocks or consumption on foods. Furthermore, it is assumed that revenue from the emission charges will be recycled to support biogas production. Biogas can be fueled to produce energy. In order to evaluate potential economic and environmental impacts of recycling the indirect emission charges on organic wastes, a static CGE model was developed. Simulation results of emission charges on the production of livestock show that livestock, agriculture, and food industry will confront relatively high burden while emission charges on consumption of food will affect more broadly and consumers will suffer more. Production charge on livestock sector will lead to higher reduction in GDP and total expenditure relative to the consumption charge. GHGs reduction effect was higher for the consumption charge relative to the production charge. Synthetically, consumption charge on food sector is more desirable as an alternative charge for the emission of organic wastes.

  • PDF

A Valuation for Gas Hydrate R&D Project Using Fuzzy Real Options Model (퍼지실물옵션모형을 이용한 가스하이드레이트 R&D 사업의 가치평가)

  • Yun, Ga-Hye;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.217-239
    • /
    • 2009
  • As gas hydrate is recently emerging as a new energy source to solve environmental and exhaustion problems caused by fossil energy, Korea is working on a gas hydrate development project under a 10-year plan from 2005 to 2014. Gas hydrate is expected to have a big effect on the economy and society of Korea, which is largely depending on energy imports besides water energy and atomic energy. However, it is uncertain whether the project will produce successful results. Thus, it is very important to improve its validity and to propose effective execution strategies by evaluating the value of the project in advance. Thus, this study intended to include new information, which had not been evaluated in existing methods, and to reduce biases or errors in value evaluation results by applying a fuzzy risk analysis to the real option model in order to evaluate the value of a gas hydrate development project. It is advantageous that the real option model based on the fuzzy risk analysis modelizes the vagueness and inexactness of intangible element judgment into an appropriate language scale so as to evaluate these elements clearly and integrate them with estimated financial performance results. The application of the fuzzy risk analysis makes it possible to conduct an analysis by dissolving a decision-making issue with complicated and various attributes into several simplified problems. With the continuing high oil prices and today's demand of clean energy, the necessity of energy resources and technology development projects keeps growing. Amid this situation, it is expected that these study results will contribute to proposing a guideline not only for gas hydrate projects but also for policy decision-making related to future energy industries.

  • PDF

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Regulating Ecosystem Services Using Carbon Storage in Major Korean Ecosystems (탄소 저장량을 이용한 국내 주요 생태계 기후 조절 서비스 지표 산정)

  • Kim, Jisoo;Han, Seung Hyun;Chang, Hanna;Kim, Teayeon;Jang, Inyoung;Oh, Wooseok;Seo, Changwan;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.8-17
    • /
    • 2016
  • Ecosystems have functions of providing, supporting, regulating and cultural services. In particular, there is an increasing attention to the importance of regulating ecosystem services in carbon sequestration function, since it is closely related to the issue of climate change. In this study, to quantify benefits of climate regulating ecosystem services, the carbon storage was defined as an indicator. Nine major Korean ecosystems were classified and research papers on carbon storage were analyzed. The collected carbon storage data were categorized according to classified ecosystems, methodologies, and carbon storage components. For each category, the mean, standard error and coefficient of variation were calculated. The carbon storage indicator was highest in vegetation biomass of deciduous forest ecosystems. The uncertainty was also estimated by the IPCC 2006 guidelines. The estimations of the uncertainty differed by methodologies and carbon storage components. With exception of forest ecosystems, the limited number of studies were available which might have hindered to conduct accurate estimations. These findings indicate that there are needs for further clarification in the measurement standards by different ecosystems.

The Analysis of effectiveness of the rainfall harvesting system by using infiltration-storage in the catchment area (유역 침투-저류방식을 이용한 빗물이용시설의 효과 분석)

  • 최계운;정기일;윤용진;현지환
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2004.05b
    • /
    • pp.1213-1218
    • /
    • 2004
  • 인류의 발전을 주도하였던 수자원은 현대에 이르러 음용수, 공업용수, 농업용수 등의 사용목적을 가지고 활용되는 한편 하천, 호수 등 자연환경과 어우러져 인간의 삶을 윤택하게 해주는 기능을 동반하여 다양한 형태로 활용되기에 이르렀다. 그러나, 수요 증가에 따른 개발증가로 수자원 부존량을 점차적으로 저하시키고 있고, 산업의 발전에 부가되는 환경 오염 등의 영향으로 현재 활용이 가능한 수자원의 양은 점차 줄어들고 있는 추세이다. 직접유출량이 발생하는 포장 면적이 증가할수록 침투가 가능한 면적이 줄어들어, 강우시 발생하는 다량의 수자원을 활용하지 못하고 하천으로 방류하게 되므로 점차 수자원 부족 현상이 가시화되고 있는 현 시점에서는 적극적인 활용 대책의 마련이 반드시 필요한 실정이다. 이와 같은 이유로 미국, 일본, 유럽 등 선진국에서는 빗물을 받아 활용할 수 있는 빗물이용시설에 대한 연구와 실제 적용을 통해 수자원의 효율적 활용을 유도하고 있으면, 국내의 경우 1990년대 중반부터 유출저감시설 연구 및 시범지역 적용을 시작으로 현재 빗물이용시설을 포함하는 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 빗물이용시설은 활용 면적에 따라서 건물의 옥상면을 통하여 유출되는 빗물을 저류하여 활용하는 방식과, 일정 면적에 내리는 빗물을 침투-저류하여 활용하는 두 가지의 방식으로 크게 구분 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 두 가지 방법 중, 유역 침투-저류 방식을 이용한 빗물이용시설에서의 강우강도에 따른 유출량 및 저류량 변화를 분석하고 아울러 침투-저류 방식을 활용하는 경우, 수질 변화를 검토하는 실험을 통하여 유역 저류-침투방식을 활용한 빗물이용시설의 적용성 여부를 확인하고자 한다.적법의 불확실도 $5\%\~10\%$에 비교하여 $5\%$ 내외의 정확도 수준을 지니고 있어 정확도 향상을 기대할 수 있다. 경제적인 측면에서도 매년 측정사업에 소요되는 비용과 비교하였을 때 장기적으로는 경제적인 방법이 될 수 있다. 하천수 등의 상호 관계 분석을 통해 장기간의 유역 물순환체계 변화를 분석할 수 있었다.골풀과, 닭의장풀과가 각 1종씩으로, 조사지점( I )보다 좀 더 많은 종이 분포하는 것으로 조사되었다. 또한 어류는 조사지점( I )에서 3회에 걸쳐 총 396개체가 채집되어 3목 8과 21종이었다. 이 중 한국 고유종은 11종이었고, 외래 어종은 검정우럭과 2종이 조사되었으며, Zacco platypus(피라미), Zacco temmincki(갈겨니), Acheilongnathus koreanus(칼납자루), Odontobutis platycephala(동사리), Coreoleuciscus splendidus(쉬리) 순으로 분포하고 있었고, Acheilognathus signifer(묵납자루)는 댐 건설 전에는 많이 분포하였으나 현장조사에서 서식을 확인 할 수 언어 개체수의 큰 감소내지 멸종된 것으로 추정되었다.에서 동시에 시행하였다. 수술 후 1년 내 시행한 심초음파에서 모든 환아에서 단지 경등도 이하의 승모판 폐쇄 부전 소견을 보였다. 수술 후 조기 사망은 없었으며, 합병증으로는 유미흉이 한 명에서 있었다. 술 후 10개월째 허혈성 확장성 심근증이 호전되지 않아 Dor 술식을 시행한 후 사망한 예를 제외한 나머지 6명은 특이 증상 없이 정상 생활 중이다 결론: 좌관상동맥 페동맥이상 기시증은 드물기는 하나

  • PDF

A Study on the impact of the changes in international emissions trade market on non-CO2 CDM projects (국제 배출권 거래 시장의 제도변화가 국내 비(非)CO2 CDM 사업에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Eungkyoon;Hwang, Minsup;Lee, Myung-Kyoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.157-185
    • /
    • 2014
  • The Kyoto Protocol has extended its life until 2020 by the decision at COP18 in Doha, Qatar in 2012. So has the Kyoto Mechanism of CDM, JI, and ETS. Nonetheless, the sustainability of CDM projects is jeopardized by the recent rule changes in the international emissions trade market such as EU ETS and the price decrease in emission credits. In particular, the domestic CDM projects reducing non-$CO_2$ GHG emissions are being directly affected. This study examines the trend of carbon credit price change in the international market. It also examines how the rule changes in the international emissions trade market have affected domestic non-$CO_2$ CDM projects through which mechanisms. The policy implications drawn from this study is two-fold: it suggests how the government can assist the project developers in utilizing GHG emission reduction technologies and the market in promoting investment environment before the domestic ETS enters into effect in 2015; apart from possible measures within ETS, an additional measures such as bilateral carbon offset system is suggested to help the private sector reduce uncertainty in investment and increase options to choose.