• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불규칙 변동계수

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Urban flood prediction through the linkage between the statistical characteristics of rainfall and the AI model (강우의 통계적 특성과 AI 모형의 연계를 통한 도시침수예측)

  • Lee, Yeonsu;Yoo, Jaehwan;Kim, Hyun-il;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.97-97
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    • 2022
  • AI 모형을 적용한 도시지역 침수예측에 대한 연구는 꾸준히 수행되어 왔다. AI 모형을 이용해 도시침수예측을 하기 위해서는 모형에 강우자료를 학습시키게 되는데, 시계열 강우분포 자료를AI 모형의 학습자료로 사용하기에 자료의 양이 너무 많기 때문에 총 강우량만을 이용하여 도시침수예측을 수행한 바 있다(Kim et al., 2021). 하지만 총 강우량만을 AI 모형에 학습시킬 경우, 지속기간 동안 강우가 고르게 분포하는지 불규칙적으로 분포하는지에 대한 정보가 포함되지 않았기 때문에 침수예측력이 떨어질 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 시계열 강우자료의 통계치를 산정하여 AI 모형에 학습시킴으로써 강우분포특성을 고려한 침수예측을 통해 예측력을 높이고자 한다. 총 강우량만을 학습시킬 경우, 같은 지속시간에 같은 양의 강우가 내리더라도 고른 분포를 가진 강우에 의해서는 실제 침수는 작게 일어나므로 과대예측을, 전체 지속시간 중 특정 시간대에 편향된 분포를 가진 강우에 의해서는 실제 침수가 크게 일어나므로 과소예측을 하는 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 표준편차를 평균 강우량으로 나눈 값인 변동계수, 강우분포의 뾰족한 정도를 나타내는 첨도, 평균값에 대해 어느 방향으로 비대칭인지를 나타내는 왜도 값을 추가로 학습시킴으로써 시계열 강우자료 전체를 학습시키지 않고도 강우분포를 학습시키지 않았을 때 발생하는 과소·과대예측 문제를 해결할 수 있다. 또한 변동계수 대신 표준편차를 학습시키는 모형, 변동계수와 표준편차를 모두 학습시키지 않는 모형, 변동계수와 표준편차를 모두 학습시키는 모형과의 침수예측 결과 비교를 통해 표준편차와 변동계수 중 어떤 통계치를 학습시키는 것이 적합한지와 비슷한 통계치 자료를 모두 학습시켰을 때의 과적합 문제 등에 대한 결론를 얻을 수 있다.

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Spatial Randomness of Fatigue Crack Growth Rate in Friction Stir Welded 7075-T651 Aluminum Alloy Welded Joints (Case of LT Orientation Specimen) (마찰교반용접된 7075-T651 알루미늄 합금 용접부의 피로균열전파율의 공간적 불규칙성 (LT 방향의 시험편에 대하여))

  • Jeong, Yeui Han;Kim, Seon Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.1109-1116
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to investigate the spatial randomness of fatigue crack growth rate for the friction stir welded (FSWed) 7075-T651 aluminum alloy joints. Our previous fatigue crack growth test data are adopted in this investigation. To clearly understand the spatial randomness of fatigue crack growth rate, fatigue crack growth tests were conducted under constant stress intensity factor range (SIFR) control testing. The experimental data were analyzed for two different materials-base metal (BM) and weld metal (WM)-to investigate the effects of spatial randomness of fatigue crack growth rate and material properties, the friction stir welded (FSWed) 7075-T651 aluminum alloy joints, namely weld metal (WM) and base metal (BM). The results showed that the variability, as evaluated by Weibull statistical analysis, of the WM is higher than that of the BM.

The Effect of Internal Waves on Acoustic Propagation (수중 음 전달에 대한 내부파의 영향)

  • 최병호;성우제;박정수
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2000
  • Internal waves existing in the stratified ocean significantly affect acoustic propagation. In order to understand the effects of internal waves on acoustic propagation, the sound speed fluctuations due to internal waves are generated based on the Garrett-Munk spectrum which is derived from measured data in the East Sea. The acoustic propagation, where internal waves are present, is simulated numerically using a Galerkin higher order parabolic equation method(SNUPE). These results show favorable comparison to in-situ acoustic propagation data from the East Sea. To investigate the effects of acoustic propagation in random media, scintillation index is adopted and comparison between the measured and numerically simulated data is made.

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Time Domain Analysis of the Motions of Catenary Moored Floating Breakwater (케터너리 제류 부유식 방파제 거동의 시간영성 해석)

  • 전인식
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.182-190
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    • 1993
  • A numerical technique is presented to calculate the motions of 6 d.o.f and mooring tensions for a catenary moored floating breakwater. The breakwater may be subjected to the 3-D combination of regular or irregular waves and stationary forces. The added mass coefficients at the infinitive frequency of input wave and the variations of damping and exciting force coefficients are calculated using the source distribution method. The coefficients are used to constitute motion equations in time domain which are solved by WiIson-$\theta$ method. The solutions agree quite well with either static displacement determined from Newton method under the stationary force only or 6 d.o.f determined from the frequency domain analysis under regular wave only. An example analysis is also done for a floating breakwater to demonstrate its applicability.

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Experimental Study on Irregular Wave Forces Acting on a Marker Rock Installed on a Submerged Breakwater (수중방파제 천단상의 표식암에 작용하는 불규칙파의 파력특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Hur, Dong Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4B
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2006
  • The construction of a submerged breakwater has become increasing due to their multiple effects on the coastal zone. Recently, marker rocks have been installed on the submerged breakwater to indicate its position to the vessels instead of buoy systems, since a buoy is not only improper for the ocean view, but also its mooring system may be damaged by the impulsive wave force caused by wave breaking on the breakwater. The accurate estimation of wave forces on such rocks is deemed necessary for their stability design. In this study, the characteristics of irregular wave forces acting on a marker rock, which was installed on a submerged breakwater, was investigated on the basis of laboratory experiments. It was revealed that the dimensionless highest one-third wave force tends to decrease with increasing the installation distance of a marker rock from the leading crown edge of a submerged breakwater. Also, the drag and inertia coefficients for irregular wave forces, which were obtained using the Morison equation, were investigated in relation to K.C. number.

Correlation of Reflection Coefficient and Extracted Efficiency of an Oscillating Water Column Device in Front of a Seawall (안벽 앞에 설치된 진동수주형 파력발전장치의 반사율과 추출효율과의 상관관계)

  • Cho, Il Hyoung;Kim, Jeongrok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.242-251
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the extraction efficiency and reflection coefficient by a two-dimensional OWC (Oscillating Water Column) WEC (wave energy converter) installed in front of a seawall was investigated for regular/irregular waves. The matched eigenfunction expansion method (MEEM) based on the linear potential theory was applied as an analytical tool. The diffraction problem by the incident wave in the open-chamber and the radiation problem by the oscillating pressure in the closed-chamber were solved to obtain the volume fluxes at the internal free-surface. Applying the volume fluxes into the continuity equation for the airflow in a chamber, we got the oscillating air pressure. The maximum extracted power and corresponding reflection coefficient were determined at the optimal turbine coefficient that maximizes the extracted power. OWC device designed for a high extracted efficiency simultaneously contributes to reduce reflected waves.

Estimation on the Power Spectral Densities of Daily Instantaneous Maximum Fluctuation Wind Velocity (변동풍속의 파워 스펙트럴 밀도에 관한 평가)

  • Oh, Jong Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2017
  • Wind turbulence data is required for engineering calculations of gust speeds, mean and fluctuating loading. Spectral densities are required as input data for methods used in assessing dynamic response. This study is concerned with the estimation of daily instantaneous maximum wind velocity in the meteorological major cities (selected each 6 points) during the yearly 1987-2016.12.1. The purpose of this paper is to present the power spectral densities of the daily instantaneous maximum wind velocity. In the processes of analysis, used observations data obtained at Korea Meteorological Adminstration(KMA), it is assumed as a random processes. From the analysis results, in the paper estimated power spectral densities function(Blunt model) shows a very closed with von Karman and Solari's spectrum models.

A Study on the Usefulness of Auto Dispenser and Optimized Dispensing Method (방사성 의약품 자동 분주장치의 유용성 및 최적화된 분주방법에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, JeoungEun;Kim, Hosung;Ryu, Jaekwang;Jung, Wooyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Recently, there is an increase of the number of hospitals using auto dispenser to reduce occupational radiation exposure when drawing up of the $^{18}F-FDG$ dose (5.18 MBq/kg) in a syringe from the dramatic high activity of $^{18}F-FDG$ multidose vial. The aim of this study is to confirm that using auto dispenser actually reduces the radiation exposure for technologists. Also we analyzed the reproducibility of auto dispenser to find optimized dispensing method for the device. Materials and Methods: We conducted three experiments. Comparison of radiation exposure on chest and hands: The chest and hands exposure dose received by technologists during the injection were measured by electronic personal dosimeter (EPD) and ring TLD respectively. Reproducibility of dispensed volume: We draw up the normal saline into 5 and 2 mL syringe using auto dispenser by changing the volume from 1 to 15 mm for 5 times in the same setting of the volume. The weight of 5 normal saline dispensed from the device at same volume was measured using micro balance and calculated standard deviation and coefficient of variation. Reproducibility of dispensed radioactivity: We dispensed 362.6 $MBq{\pm}10%$ of $^{18}F-FDG$ in 5 and 2 mL syringes from the multidose vial of different specific activity. In the same setting of volume, we repeated dispensing for 4 times and compared standard deviation and coefficient of variation of radioactivity between 5 syringes. Results: There was significant difference in the average of chest exposure dose according to the dispensing methods (P<0.05). Also, when dispensing $^{18}F-FDG$ in manual method, exposure dose was 11.5 times higher in right hand and 4.8 times higher in left hand than in auto method. In the result of reproducibility of dispensed volume, standard deviation and coefficient of variation shows decline as the dispensing volume increases. As a result of reproducibility of dispensed radioactivity, standard deviation and coefficient of variation increases as the specific activity increases. Conclusion: We approved that the occupational radiation exposure dose of technologists were reduced when dispensing $^{18}F-FDG$ using auto dose dispenser. Secondly, using small syringes helps to increase reproducibility of auto dose dispense. And also, if you lower the specific activity of $^{18}F-FDG$ in multidose vial below 915-1,020 MBq/mL, you can use auto dispenser more effectively keeping the coefficient of variation lower than 10%.

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Corruption and Government Expenditure Volatility (부패와 정부지출의 변동성)

  • Lim, Eung-Soon;Hwang, Jin-Young;Song, In-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.188-194
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    • 2011
  • Using cross-section of 83 countries, this paper empirically examines the relationship between corruption and government expenditure volatility. A country's corruption is denoted by either control of corruption, compiled by Kaufmann et al. (2008), or corruption perceptions index, provided by Transparency International. In addition, a country's government expenditure volatility is measured by the standard deviation of the change ratio of government expenditure from 1990 to 2005. Regression results suggest that a country's control of corruption and corruption perceptions index (higher ratings signifying more transparency) are significantly and negatively associated with the volatility of government expenditure. However, the estimated coefficients of corruption perceptions index show somewhat reduced statistical significances. The results are robust to the sub-sample of countries excluding European OECD countries. Therefore, the regression results suggest corrupt bureaucrats are able to periodically change economic rules of the game, which results in the possibility of a higher variance in government expenditure.

A Study on the Prediction of Flow near the Confluence of Banbyeoncheon by Using the KU-RLMS Model (KU-RLMS 모형을 이용한 반변천 합류부 흐름 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Keum-Chan;Lee, Nam-Joo;Lyu, Si-Wan;Yeo, Hong-Koo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1209-1213
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    • 2007
  • 하천 수치모델링을 통한 흐름, 오염물질 거동, 지형변화 해석 등은 효율적인 하천 수질 관리를 위해서 상당히 중요한 부분은 차지한다. 수질이나 지형변화를 보다 정확하게 예측하기 위해서는 하천 흐름 예측의 정확도 향상이 중요한 역할을 하게 된다. 본 연구는 평면 이차원 하상변동 및 수질예측 수치모형인 KU-RLMS 모형을 이용하여 낙동강 상류의 반변천 합류부의 흐름 특성을 규명하고, 수질 모형을 수행하기 위한 흐름 계산 결과를 제공하기 위해 수행하였다. KU-RLMS 모형은 하천 및 저수지의 국부적인 수리, 수질, 유사이동 해석을 위해 개발된 평면 이차원 비정상 수치모형이다. 직사각형 격자를 사용하는 유한차분법의 단점을 보완하기 위해, 흐름 계산을 위한 지배방정식은 3차원 Reynolds 방정식으로부터 수심적분된 2차원 연속방정식과 운동량방정식을 불규칙한 경계를 현실적으로 모사할 수 있는 직교곡선 좌표계로 변환한 방정식을 사용한다. 수치모형 적용을 위한 현황분석으로 안동 및 임하 조정지댐의 방류량, 안동 수위관측소의 자료를 분석하였다. 흐름 모형을 보정하기 위해 안동대교 지점에서 횡유속 분포를 측정하였으며, 이 결과를 사용하여 흐름 모형의 매개변수인 Manning 계수와 공간가중계수를 추정 및 검증하였다. 안동다목적댐과 임하다목적댐의 방류량을 고려하여 수치모의조건을 결정하였으며, 각 조건에 대한 흐름 변화 특성을 분석하였다.

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