• 제목/요약/키워드: 분포의 적정성 분석

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Evaluation of Probable Rainfall Intensity Formula Considering the Locality of Rainfall Pattern Change at Incheon City (국지성 호우패턴 변화를 고려한 인천지역 확률강우강도식의 산정)

  • Choi, Gye-Woon;Han, Man-Shin;Chung, Yeun-Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.846-851
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문은 최근 발생한 집중호우와 이상강우를 고려하여 인천지역에서 사용중인 확률강우강도식에 대한 새로운 확률강우강도식을 제안하였으며, 기상청 자료를 이용하여 지속시간 10분${\sim}$24시간까지의 임의시간 연최대강우량을 산정하였다. 강우지속기간별 확률강우량을 추정하기 위하여 11개의 확률분포형을 적용하였으며 Chi-square 검정방법, Kolmogorov -Smirnov 검정방법, Cramer Von Mises 검정방법으로 적합도 검정과 함께 최근 강우에 대한 경향을 분석하고 실제 발생한 강우 중에서 최대 발생 강우량을 고려하여 적정분포인 GEV 분포를 확률 분포형으로 선정하였다. 확률강우강도식은 최소자승법을 사용하여 Talbot형, Sherman형, Japanese형, 통합형 Ⅰ 및 Ⅱ 형태로 산정하였고, 지역내 하수도 및 하천의 지속시간을 감안하여 확률강우강도식을 결정하였다. 또한 정확성을 고려하여 통합형 Ⅰ을 선택하였고 지속시간에 따른 강우강도식의 확률강우와 관측치를 감안한 강도식을 인천지역의 강우강도식으로 제안하였다.

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Flood Frequency Analysis at Indogyo Station in Han River Basins (한강 인도교지점에서의 홍수빈도해석에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Young Seok;Kim, Kyung Duk;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.1098-1102
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 수도권을 포함하는 한강하류부에서 가장 중요한 측수지점중 하나인 인도교지점의 연 최대 홍수량 자료에 내해서 빈도해석을 시행하였다. 자료를 3개의 자료(자료 I : $1918\~1940$, 자료 II: $1952\~2002$, 자료 III: 결측치를 제외한 $1918\~2002$)로 구분하였으며, 수문자료에 일반적으로 많이 사용하는 13가지 확률 분포형을 적용하여 매개변수를 추정한 뒤 적합성여부를 판정하였으며, 적합도 검정방법 및 도시적인 방법을 통하여 적정 확률분포형을 선정하였고, 채택된 분포형(gamma-3, GEV, Gumbel, Weibull-2)에 내하여 확률홍수량을 산정하였다. 또한, 위치도시공식(plotting position formula)과 역사적 홍수정보(historic information)를 이용한 빈도해석 결과와도 비교${\cdot}$분석하였다. 그 결과 확률분포형 가운데에는 GEV와 Gumbel 분포형이 인도교지점의 홍수빈도해석에 적합한 것으로 판단된다.

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Regional Frequency Analysis by Rainfalls using GEV Distribution (GEV 분포에 의한 강우자료의 지역빈도분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.403-407
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    • 2006
  • This research aims to reduce severe damages to human beings and properties from floods that ravage Korea every year, by estimating right time to hydraulic structures based on the characteristics of variations in flood flows. To establish this permanent means for the flood mitigation, this research analyse design floods of various dams and hydraulic structures in connection with time of occurrence of the weather abnormalities in Korea. This research was derived the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions in Korea. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smimov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the GEV distribution among applied distributions. The regional and at-site analyses using L-moment for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Error tests were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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Comparison of Soil Chemical Properties in Greenhouse or Open Field Where Flower Crops were Cultivated from 2018 to 2020 (화훼작물이 재배된 온실 또는 노지재배지의 토양 화학성 비교)

  • Kwon, Hye Sook;Heo, Seong
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.675-685
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    • 2022
  • A comparative analysis was performed on the soil chemical properties of greenhouse or open field where flower crops were grown from 2018 to 2020. The pH of greenhouse soils was kept slightly higher than the optimum range suggested by Rural Development Administration and that of open field soils was maintained within the optimum range for three years. The contents of organic matter (OM) were within the optimum range without significant change every year in both soils. Available phosphate (Av. P2O5) of greenhouse soils was the highest at 560 mg/kg in 2018, but it decreased every year and fell within the appropriate range in 2020. The concentration of Av. P2O5 in open field soils have fluctuated for three years, not showing a significant difference. Electrical conductivity (EC) of greenhouse soils was higher every year than the standard, 2.0 dS/m, but EC of open field soils remained below the standard. The contents of exchangeable cations were higher than the standard, showing significant differences among the years in greenhouse soils. In open field soils, other cations except exchangeable K+ were maintained higher than the optimal level and only Ca2+ showed a significant difference among the years. In Pearson correlation matrices, the value of exchangeable Ca2+ had a significantly positive correlation with exchangeable Mg2+ content at both greenhouse and open field soils. Based on principal component analysis, the soils of greenhouse were distributed within the range of high concentrations of Av. P2O5, EC and exchangeable cations, while the soils of open field were characterized by low contents of OM and exchangeable cations. Therefore, it is essential to lower the concentration of exchangeable cations in greenhouse soils. It is common for the soils of open field to have a low OM content, so that organic fertilizers should be more actively applied to the soils in open field.

Reliability Analysis for Decoy using Maintenance Data (정비 데이터를 이용한 기만체계 신뢰도 분석)

  • Gwak, Hye-Rim;Hong, Seok-Jin;Jang, Min-Ki
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 2018
  • The decoy defensive weapon system is a one-shot system. Reliability is maintained through periodic inspection and high reliability is required to confirm whether or not the functioning is normal after launch. The maintenance cycle of a decoy was set up without target reliability and reliability prediction during the development period. However, the number of operations in the military has been increasing, necessitating the optimization of the maintenance cycle. Reliability is analyzed using the maintenance data of a decoy operated for several decades and the optimal maintenance cycle is suggested. In chapter 2, data collection and classification methods are presented and analysis methodology is briefly introduced. In chapter 3, the data distribution analysis and fitness verification confirmed that applying the Weibull distribution is the most suitable for the maintenance data of the decoy. In chapter 4, we present the analysis result of percentile, survival probability and MTBF and the optimal maintenance cycle was derived from the reliability analysis. Finally, we suggest the application methods for this paper in the future.

Improvements for Ordering and Bidding of VE in Convergence Era (융복합시대 설계의 경제성 등 검토(VE) 발주 및 입찰시 문제점과 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Myeong-Su;Yang, Hae-Sool
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2016
  • The author of this study conducted a survey with the expert groups who are currently handling hands-on works in convergence cities, ordering organizations, construction management companies, contractors, schools and research institutes, etc. The results of empirical analysis can be summarized as follows: First, there is no difference in distribution among the problems with position and the bidding system of private contracts. Second, there is relevance between position and the adequacy of current design VE ordering system, indicating different recognition. Third, there is no difference in distribution between organizations and the adequacy of current design VE ordering system. Fourth, there is difference in distribution between organizations and service price adequacy and there is difference in recognition by organization when organizations mutually recognize the service price adequacy. Fifth, there is difference in distribution between career and the necessity of the participating companies' qualification. Sixth, there is difference in distribution for the adequacy of career and the adequacy of participating companies' requirements. No problems have been found with the adequate service period according to private contract bidding system, but the necessity of participating companies' qualification and participating companies' requirements.

Protection Coordination Study in Smart Grid with Diesel Generator (디젤발전기가 포함된 스마트그리드 보호계전 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Wan;Hong, Jong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.784-785
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    • 2011
  • 보호계전시스템은 전력계통 운영 상태를 감시하여 전기 사고시 고장부분을 분리함으로써 전력공급 신뢰성 제고 및 고장파급 억제 기능을 수행한다. 스마트그리드는 신재생에너지원을 포함한 다양한 분산전원을 구비하고 있어, 전기 고장시 이들 분산전원으로부터 고장전류가 고장점으로 유입된다. 앞으로 보급 확산이 예상되는 소규모 스마트 그리드 구성 및 운전 형태별 고장전류를 해석하고 이를 이용하여 실현 가능한 스마트그리드 보호계전시스템의 구현 및 이의 동작 설정 값을 계산한다. 아울러 스마트그리드에 발생한 고장전류 크기 및 분포에 관련한 보호계전시스템의 적정성을 조사 및 분석한다.

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Analysis on Characteristics of Variation in Flood Flow by Changing Order of Probability Weighted Moments (확률가중모멘트의 차수 변화에 따른 홍수량 변동 특성 분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Hwang, Ju-Ha
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.1009-1019
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    • 2009
  • In this research, various characteristics of South Korea's design flood have been examined by deriving appropriate design flood, using data obtained from careful observation of actual floods occurring in selected main watersheds of the nation. 19 watersheds were selected for research in Korea. The various characteristics of annual rainfall were analyzed by using a moving average method. The frequency analysis was decided to be performed on the annual maximum flood of succeeding one year as a reference year. For the 19 watersheds, tests of basic statistics, independent, homogeneity, and outlier were calculated per period of annual maximum flood series. By performing a test using the LH-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, among applied distributions of Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution was found to be adequate compared with other probability distributions. Parameters of GEV distribution were estimated by L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment method based on the change in the order of probability weighted moments. Design floods per watershed and the periods of annual maximum flood series were derived by GEV distribution. According to the result of the analysis performed by using variation rate used in this research, it has been concluded that the time for changing the design conditions to ensure the proper hydraulic structure that considers recent climate changes of the nation brought about by global warming should be around the year 2002.

A study on the representative monitoring properties and locations in the Geumgang Estuary (금강하구의 대표 모니터링 지표와 지점에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Nam-Hoon;Hwang, Jin Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.23-23
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    • 2020
  • 하구 관측은 조사 방법 및 주기에 따라 크게 두 가지로 구분되는데, 첫째는 현장에서 직접 주기적으로 자료를 수집하는 정기 현장관측과 다른 하나는 고정된 지점에 관측소를 설치하여 실시간으로 연속된 자료를 수집하는 실시간 관측으로 분류된다. 본 연구는 하구 관측망 체계를 확립하기 위한 기초 연구로서 금강하구역을 대상으로 모의된 수치 모델 자료를 이용하여 관측망을 설계하기 위한 대표 모니터링 지표를 선정하고, 이를 기반으로 관측 지점을 설계하기 위한 전략을 제시하였다. 대표 모니터링 지표는 실제 현장에서 일반적으로 취득할 수 있는 6가지 항목(수온, 염분, 용존산소, 클로로필a, 총질소, 총인)을 대상으로 EOF 분석을 실시하여 해역의 시공간 분포를 대표할 수 있다고 판단되는 2개의 항목을 선정하였다. 대표 모니터링 지점은 2개의 대표 모니터링 지표에 대한 고유 벡터 사이의 각도를 벡터의 내적으로 계산하고 이를 설계변수로 활용하여 도식최적화 기법을 통해 각 모니터링 항목들에 대한 공간 분포를 가장 잘 재현해 낼 수 있는 지점의 개수와 위치를 선정하였다. 선정된 모니터링 지점들을 이용하여 재구성된 공간 분포를 참값(수치모델)과 비교하여 통계적 적정성 여부를 평가하였으며, 이를 통해 금강하구의 대표 모니터링 지점들을 도출 해 내었다. 금강하구의 정기 현장 관측에 대한 대표 모니터링 지점은 7개로 선정되었으며, 이들은 6가지 관측 항목들에 대해서 매우 높은 공간분포 재현율을 확보할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 또한, 담수가 비정기적으로 방류되는 금강하구 시스템의 지역적 특성에 대한 시계열 정보를 연속적으로 가장 잘 취득할 수 있는 실시간 관측소 설치 영역을 결정하기 위하여, 7개의 대표 모니터링 지점에서의 시계열 정보를 금강하구둑 전면과 외해의 시계열 정보와 비교분석하여 설치가능 지점을 영역으로 제언하였다.

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Statistical Probability Analysis of Storage Temperatures of Domestic Refrigerator as a Risk Factor of Foodborne Illness Outbreak (식중독 발생 위해인자로서 가정용 냉장고의 온도에 대한 확률분포 분석)

  • Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.373-376
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.