• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변수추정법

Search Result 589, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

An Estimation of Probable Precipitation and an Analysis of Its Return Period and Distributions in Busan (부산지역 확률강수량 결정에 따른 재현기간 및 분포도 분석)

  • Lim, Yun-Kyu;Moon, Yun-Seob;Kim, Jin-Seog;Song, Sang-Keun;Hwang, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-48
    • /
    • 2012
  • In this study, a statistical estimation of probable precipitation and an analysis of its return period in Busan were performed using long-term precipitation data (1973-2007) collected from the Busan Regional Meteorological Administration. These analyses were based on the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation, the goodness-of-fit test of chi-square ($x^2$) and the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), and the generalized logistics (GLO) for optimum probability distribution. Moreover, the spatial distributions with the determination of probable precipitation were also investigated using precipitation data observed at 15 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) in the target area. The return periods for the probable precipitation of 245.2 and 280.6 mm/6 hr with GLO distributions in Busan were estimated to be about 100 and 200 years, respectively. In addition, the high probable precipitation for 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-hour durations was mostly distributed around Dongrae-gu site, all coastal sites in Busan, Busanjin and Yangsan sites, and the southeastern coastal and Ungsang sites, respectively.

The Extreme Value Analysis of Deepwater Design Wave Height and Wind Velocity off the Southwest Coast (남서 해역 심해 설계 파고 및 풍속의 극치분석)

  • Kim, Kamg-Min;Lee, Joong-Woo;Lee, Hun;Yang, Sang-Yong;Jeong, Young-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.245-251
    • /
    • 2005
  • When we design coastal and harbol facilities deepwater design wave and wind speed are the important design parameters. Especially, the analysis of these informations is a vital step for the point of disaster prevention. In this study, we made and an extreme value analysis using a series of deep water significant wave data arranged in the 16 direction and supplied by KORDI real-time wave information system ,and the wind data gained from Wan-Do whether Station 1978-2003. The probability distributions considered in this characteristic analysis were the Weibull, the Gumbel, the Log-Pearson Type III, the Normal, the Lognormal, and the Gamma distribution. The parameter for each distribution was estimated by three methods, i.e. the method of moments, the maximum likelihood, and the method of probability weight moments. Furthermore, probability distributions for the extreme data had been selected by using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test within significant level of 5%, i,e. 95% reliance level. From this study we found that Gumbel distribution is the most proper model for the deep water design wave height off the southwest coast of Korea. However the result shows that the proper distribution made for the selected site is varied in each extreme data set.

  • PDF

Carbon Storage and Uptake by Evergreen Trees for Urban Landscape - For Pinus densiflora and Pinus koraiensis - (도시 상록 조경수의 탄소저장 및 흡수 - 소나무와 잣나무를 대상으로 -)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Kim, Jin-Young;Park, Hye-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.27 no.5
    • /
    • pp.571-578
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study generated regression models through a direct harvesting method to estimate carbon storage and uptake by Pinus densiflora and Pinus koraiensis, the major evergreen tree species in urban landscape, and established essential information to quantify carbon reduction by urban trees. Open-grown landscape tree individuals for each species were sampled reflecting various diameter sizes at a given interval. The study measured biomass for each part including the roots of sample trees to compute the total carbon storage per tree. Annual carbon uptake per tree was quantified by analyzing radial growth rates of stem samples at breast height. The study then derived a regression model easily applicable in estimating carbon storage and uptake per tree for the two species by using diameter at breast height (DBH) as an independent variable. All the regression models showed high fitness with $r^2$ values of higher than 0.98. While carbon storage and uptake by young trees tended to be greater for P. densiflora than for P. koraiensis in the same diameter sizes, those by mature trees with DBH sizes of larger than 20 cm showed results to the contrary due to a difference in growth rates. A tree of P. densiflora and P. koraiensis with DBH of 25 cm stored 115.6 kg and 130.0 kg of carbon, respectively, and annually sequestered 9.4 kg and 14.6 kg. The study has broken new grounds to overcome limitations of the past studies which quantified carbon reduction of the study species by substituting, due to a difficulty in direct cutting and root digging of landscape trees, coefficients from forest trees such as biomass expansion factors, ratios of below ground/above ground biomass, and diameter growth rates.

Analysis of Elastic Constants in SiC Particulate Reinforced Al Matrix Composites by Resonant Ultrasound Spectroscopy (초음파 공명 분광법(RUS)을 이용한 SiC 입자강화 Al 기지복합재료의 탄성계수 해석)

  • Jung, Hyun-Kyu;Cheong, Yong-Moo;Joo, Young-Sang;Hong, Soon-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.180-188
    • /
    • 1999
  • The dynamic elastic properties of metal matrix composites were investigated by resonant ultrasound spectroscopy(RUS). The composites used in this study consisted of 2124 aluminum alloy reinforced with different concentrations of SiC particles. RUS can determine the nine independent elastic stiffness($C_{ij}$) for the orthorhombic symmetry on a small specimen simultaneously. The elastic constants were determined as a function of the volume fraction. A concept of effective aspect ratio. which combine the aspect ratio and the orientation of reinforcement. was used to calculate the initial moduli from Mori-Tanaka theory for the input of RUS minimization code. Young's moduli can be obtained from the measured stiffnesses. The results show that the elastic stiffness increases with increment of the particle content. The behavior of elastic stiffness indicates that the particle redistribution induced by the extrusion process enlarges the transversely isotropic symmetry as the fraction of reinforced particles increase. This relationship could be used for determination of the volume fractions of reinforcement as a potential tool of nondestructive material characterization.

  • PDF

Estimation of Permanent Displacement of Gravity Quay Wall Considering Failure Surface under Seismic Loading (지진 시 파괴면을 고려한 중력식 안벽의 영구변위 평가)

  • Han, Insuk;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Duhee;Kwon, Osoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.15-26
    • /
    • 2019
  • The stability of the gravity quay wall against earthquakes is evaluated on the basis of the allowable displacement of the wall. To estimate the displacement caused by external forces, empirical equations based on the Newmark sliding block method or numerical analysis are widely used. In numerical analysis, it is possible to analyze precisely a complicated site and structure, but difficult to set the appropriate parameters and environments; there are limitations in obtaining reliable results, depending on one's level of expertise. The Newmark method, with only seismic motions, is widely used because it is simpler than numerical simulations when estimating permanent displacement. However, the empirical equations do not have any parameters for the response characteristics and sliding block of the structure, and sliding blocks being assumed as rigid bodies does not consider the nonlinear behavior of the soil and interaction with the structure. Therefore, in order to evaluate the seismic stability of the gravity quay wall, a newly-developed empirical equation is needed to overcome the above-mentioned limitations. In this study, numerical simulations are performed to analyze the response characteristics of the backfill of the structure, and to propose an optimal method of calculating the active area. For this purpose, finite element analyses were performed to analyze the response characteristics, and stress-strain relationships for various seismic motions. As a result, the response characteristics, sliding block, and failure surface of the backfill vary depending on the input seismic motions.

Development of Truck Axle Load Distribution Model using WIM Data (WIM 자료를 활용한 화물차 축하중 분포 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Dong Seok;Oh, Ju Sam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.5D
    • /
    • pp.821-829
    • /
    • 2006
  • Traffic load comprise primary input to pavement design causing pavement damage. therefore it should be proceeded suitable traffic load distribution modeling for pavement design and analysis. Traffic load have been represented by equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) which convert mixed traffic stream into one value for design purposes. But there are some limit to apply ESALs to other roads because it is empirical value developed as part of the original AASHO(American Association of State Highway Officials) road test. There have been many efforts to solve these problems. Several leading country have implemented M-E(Mechanistic-Empirical) design procedures based on mechanical concept. As a result, they established traffic load quantification method using load distribution model known as Axle Load Spectra. This paper details Axle Load Spectra and presents axle load distribution model based on normal mixture distribution function using truck load data collected by WIM system installed in national highway. Axle load spectra and axle load distribution model presented in this paper could be useful for basic data when making traffic load quantification plan for pavement design, overweight vehicle permit plan and pavement maintenance cost plan.

Estimation of grid-type precipitation quantile using satellite based re-analysis precipitation data in Korean peninsula (위성 기반 재분석 강수 자료를 이용한 한반도 격자형 확률강수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jinwook;Jun, Changhyun;Kim, Hyeon-joon;Byun, Jongyun;Baik, Jongjin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.55 no.6
    • /
    • pp.447-459
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study estimated the grid-type precipitation quantile for the Korean Peninsula using PERSIANN-CCS-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record), a satellite based re-analysis precipitation data. The period considered is a total of 38 years from 1983 to 2020. The spatial resolution of the data is 0.04° and the temporal resolution is 3 hours. For the probability distribution, the Gumbel distribution which is generally used for frequency analysis was used, and the probability weighted moment method was applied to estimate parameters. The duration ranged from 3 hours to 144 hours, and the return period from 2 years to 500 years was considered. The results were compared and reviewed with the estimated precipitation quantile using precipitation data from the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) weather station. As a result, the parameter estimates of the Gumbel distribution from the PERSIANN-CCS-CDR showed a similar pattern to the results of the ASOS as the duration increased, and the estimates of precipitation quantiles showed a rather large difference when the duration was short. However, when the duration was 18 h or longer, the difference decreased to less than about 20%. In addition, the difference between results of the South and North Korea was examined, it was confirmed that the location parameters among parameters of the Gumbel distribution was markedly different. As the duration increased, the precipitation quantile in North Korea was relatively smaller than those in South Korea, and it was 84% of that of South Korea for a duration of 3 h, and 70-75% of that of South Korea for a duration of 144 h.

Quality Changes in Tomato Fruits Caused by Genotype and Environment Interactions (재배환경과 유전형의 상호작용에 따른 토마토 과실 품질 변화)

  • Park, Minwoo;Chung, Yong Suk;Lee, Sanghyeob
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.361-372
    • /
    • 2017
  • Bred and grown around the world, tomato (Solanum spp.) has highly valuable fruits containings various anti-oxidants such as lycopene, flavonoids, glutamine, and ${\beta}-carotene$. Several studies have explored, way in which to enhance the growth, management and quality of tomato, we focus on the management of growth for yield rather than quality. The expression of superior agronomic traits depends on where cultivars are grown. We evaluated 10 cultivars grown in three environment for their lycopene. HTL3137 ($70.48mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$), which was grown in Yoeju in spring/summer, contained the highest lycopene content, while HTL10256 ($20.9mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$), which was grown in Suwon in spring/summer, contain the least lycopene.Correlations between color components and lycopene content varied according to growing location and season. In spring/summer-grown tomatoes from Suwon, no significant correlation was observed between any color component (redness [R], greenness [G], blueness [B], luminosity, $L^*$, $a^*$, $b^*$, hue and chroma) and lycopene content. A correlation was observed between B and lycopene content in tomatoes grown in Yeoju during the same season. In tomatoes grown in Yeoju in fall/winter, significant correlations were found between lycopene content and G, luminosity, $L^*$, and hue. Variance in interactions between genotype, environment, and genotype ${\times}$ environment (G ${\times}$ E) using Minimum Norm Quadratic Unbiased Estimate (MINQUE) analysis indicated that lycopene content depends on genotype (51.33%), environment (49.13%), and G ${\times}$ E (21.43%). However, when the Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) was used, the G ${\times}$ E value was highest.

Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion in a Small-Scale Basin (소규모 분지에서의 지진 지반운동 모델링)

  • Kang, Tae-Seob
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.92-101
    • /
    • 2012
  • Three-dimensional finite-difference simulation in a small-scale half-sphere basin with planar free-surface is performed for an arbitrary shear-dislocation point source. A new scheme to deal with free-surface boundary condition is presented. Then basin parameters are examined to understand main characteristics on ground-motion response in the basin. To analyze the frequency content of ground motion in the basin, spectral amplitudes are compared with each other for four sites inside and outside the basin. Also particle motions for those sites are examined to find which kind of wave plays a dominant role in ground-motion response. The results show that seismic energy is concentrated on a marginal area of the basin far from the source. This focusing effect is mainly due to constructive interference of the direct Swave with basin-edge induced surface waves. Also, ground-motion amplification over the deepest part of the basin is relatively lower than that above shallow basin edge. In the small-scale basin with relatively simple bedrock interface, therefore, the ground-motion amplification may be more related to the source azimuth or direction of the incident waves into the basin rather than depth of it.

An Analysis of Factors Influencing on Temple Foods (사찰음식에 대한 수요영향요인 분석 - 템플스테이 참가자를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Yong-Moon;Park, Ki-Oh
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.240-253
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to predict factors influencing participant demand for the temple stays and to help find alternatives for temple stay marketing strategies. Specifically, the study sought to examine input variables on the visit frequency of temple visitors who partook in temple food. Research subjects were temple stay participants with experience with temple food. Through convenience sampling method, 300 self-administered questionnaires were distributed to participants at 4 temple stays in Seoul. Of the 278 questionnaires collected, 232 (83%) were used for research analysis. Given that the requirement that proper model for analysing the collected data be applied, the Truncated Negative Binomial(TNB) Poisson model, which is useful for analysing count data that are truncated at '0' and overcrowded with a certain value, was selected fort his study. Study results found that, for temple stay food revitalization, the most crucial item for temple food proponents to recognize is natural food ingredients. The degree of affection was higher among respondents over 40 years of groups and with incomes over 40 million won or more than others. In addition, unmarried and male were higher than married and female, and the Christian population in the temple food demand higher impact than Shamanism community. This match should be a priority to establish an in-depth public relations policy of targeted marketing of consumers according to various demographic characteristics. Active and aggressive efforts to expand food inspection are required to promote the healthy image of the temple food to the fragmentation of consumer marketing hierarchy.