• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.49 no.5
• /
• pp.411-422
• /
• 2016

Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
• /
• v.13B no.5 s.108
• /
• pp.525-532
• /
• 2006

This paper proposes a new class of image restoration on the Ising modeled binary 'Takbon' image by the flexible line-fitting ICM(Iterated conditional modes) method. Basically 'Takbon' image need be divided into two extreme regions, information and background one due to its stroke combinations. The main idea is the line process, comparing with the conventional ICM approaches which were based on partially rectangular structured point process. For calculating geometrical mechanism, we have defined line-fitting functions at each current pixel array which form the set of linear lines with gradients and lengths. By applying the Bayes' decision to this set, the region of the current pixel is decided as one of the binary levels. In this case, their statistical reiteration for distinct tracking between intra and extra region offers a criterion to decide the attachment at each step. Finally simulations using the binary 'Takbon' image are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new algorithm

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.157-177
• /
• 2008

Even in a single day, an enormous amount of content including digital videos, posts, photographs, and wikis are generated on the web. It's getting more difficult to recommend to a user what he/she prefers among these contents because of the difficulty of automatically grasping of content's meanings. CF (Collaborative Filtering) is one of useful methods to recommend proper content to a user under these situations because the filtering process is only based on historical information about whether or not a target user has preferred an item before. Collaborative Tagging is the process that allows many users to annotate content with descriptive tags. Recommendation using tags can partially improve, such as the limitations of CF, the sparsity and cold-start problem. In this research, a CF method with user-created tags is proposed. Collaborative tagging is employed to grasp and filter users' preferences for items. Empirical demonstrations using real dataset from del.icio.us show that our algorithm obtains improved performance, compared with existing works.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.6 no.8
• /
• pp.2060-2071
• /
• 1999

The complicate software failure system is defined to the superposition of the points of failure from several component point process. Because the likelihood function is difficulty in computing, we consider Gibbs sampler using iteration sampling based method. For each observed failure epoch, we applied to latent variables that indicates with component of the superposition mode. For model selection, we explored the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors for the comparison simple pattern with superposition model. A numerical example with NHPP simulated data set applies the thinning method proposed by Lewis and Shedler[25] is given, we consider Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model with GOS, inference of parameter is studied. Using the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors, as we would expect, the superposition model is best on model under diffuse priors.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.52 no.11
• /
• pp.895-904
• /
• 2019

It has been well recognized that extreme rainfall process often features a nonstationary behavior, which may not be effectively modeled within a stationary frequency modeling framework. Moreover, extreme rainfall events are often described by a two (or more)-component mixture distribution which can be attributed to the distinct rainfall patterns associated with summer monsoons and tropical cyclones. In this perspective, this study explores a Mixture Distribution based Nonstationary Frequency (MDNF) model in a changing rainfall patterns within a Bayesian framework. Subsequently, the MDNF model can effectively account for the time-varying moments (e.g. location parameter) of the Gumbel distribution in a two (or more)-component mixture distribution. The performance of the MDNF model was evaluated by various statistical measures, compared with frequency model based on both stationary and nonstationary mixture distributions. A comparison of the results highlighted that the MDNF model substantially improved the overall performance, confirming the assumption that the extreme rainfall patterns might have a distinct nonstationarity.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.64 no.6
• /
• pp.35-41
• /
• 2022

Heavy snow damage can be prevented in advance with an appropriate security system. To develop the security system, we developed a model that predicts snow depth after a few hours when the snow depth is observed, and utilized it to calculate a failure probability with various types of greenhouses and observed snow depth data. We compared the Markov chain model and Bayesian long short-term memory models with varying input data. Markov chain model showed the worst performance, and the models that used only past snow depth data outperformed the models that used other weather data with snow depth (temperature, humidity, wind speed). Also, the models that utilized 1-hour past data outperformed the models that utilized 3-hour data and 6-hour data. Finally, the Bayesian LSTM model that uses 1-hour snow depth data was selected to predict snow depth. We compared the selected model and the shifting method, which uses present data as future data without prediction, and the model outperformed the shifting method when predicting data after 11-24 hours.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.33-46
• /
• 2011

Since an e-mail has been an important mean of communication and information sharing, there have been much effort to classify e-mails efficiently by their contents. An e-mail has various forms in length and style, and words used in an e-mail are usually irregular. In addition, the criteria of an e-mail classification are subjective. As a result, it is quite difficult for the conventional text classification technique to be adapted to an e-mail classification efficiently. An e-mail classification technique in a commercial e-mail program uses a simple text filtering technique in an e-mail client. In the previous studies on automatic classification of an e-mail, the Naive Bayesian technique based on the probability has been used to improve the classification accuracy, and most of them are on an e-mail in English. This paper proposes the personalized recommendation technique of an email in Korean using a data mining technique of frequent patterns. The proposed technique consists of two phases such as the pre-processing of e-mails in an e-mail folder and the generating a profile for the e-mail folder. The generated profile is used for an e-mail to be classified into the most appropriate e-mail folder by the subjective criteria. The e-mail classification system is also implemented, which adapts the proposed technique.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.46 no.1
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2013

The main objective of this study was to develop a new regional frequency analysis model based on hierarchical Bayesian model that allows us to better estimate and quantify model parameters as well as their associated uncertainties. A Monte-carlo experiment procedure has been set up to verify the proposed regional frequency analysis. It was found that the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis outperformed the existing L-moment based regional frequency analysis in terms of reducing biases associated with the model parameters. Especially, the bias is remarkably decreased with increasing return period. The proposed model was applied to six weather stations in Jeollabuk-do, and compared with the existing L-moment approach. This study also provided shrinkage process of the model parameters that is a typical behavior in hierarchical Bayes models. The results of case study show that the proposed model has the potential to obtain reliable estimates of the parameters and quantitatively provide their uncertainties.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.38 no.2
• /
• pp.249-259
• /
• 2018

More than half of annual rainfall occurs in summer season in Korea due to its climate condition and geographical location. A frequency analysis is mostly adopted for designing hydraulic structure under the such concentrated rainfall condition. Among the various distributions, univariate Gumbel distribution has been routinely used for rainfall frequency analysis in Korea. However, the distributional changes in extreme rainfall have been globally observed including Korea. More specifically, the univariate Gumbel distribution based rainfall frequency analysis is often fail to describe multimodal behaviors which are mainly influenced by distinct climate conditions during the wet season. In this context, we purposed a Gumbel mixture distribution based rainfall frequency analysis with a Bayesian framework, and further the results were compared to that of the univariate. It was found that the proposed model showed better performance in describing underlying distributions, leading to the lower Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. The mixed Gumbel distribution was more robust for describing the upper tail of the distribution which playes a crucial role in estimating more reliable estimates of design rainfall uncertainty occurred by peak of upper tail than single Gumbel distribution. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mixed Gumbel distribution is more compatible for extreme frequency analysis rainfall data with two or more peaks on its distribution.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
• /
• v.4 no.10
• /
• pp.447-454
• /
• 2015

This paper proposes geographical name denoising by machine learning of event detection based on twitter. Recently, the increasing number of smart phone users are leading the growing user of SNS. Especially, the functions of short message (less than 140 words) and follow service make twitter has the power of conveying and diffusing the information more quickly. These characteristics and mobile optimised feature make twitter has fast information conveying speed, which can play a role of conveying disasters or events. Related research used the individuals of twitter user as the sensor of event detection to detect events that occur in reality. This research employed geographical name as the keyword by using the characteristic that an event occurs in a specific place. However, it ignored the denoising of relationship between geographical name and homograph, it became an important factor to lower the accuracy of event detection. In this paper, we used removing and forecasting, these two method to applied denoising technique. First after processing the filtering step by using noise related database building, we have determined the existence of geographical name by using the Naive Bayesian classification. Finally by using the experimental data, we earned the probability value of machine learning. On the basis of forecast technique which is proposed in this paper, the reliability of the need for denoising technique has turned out to be 89.6%.