Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Development of Regional Frequency Model Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Model

계층적 Bayesian 모형 기반 지역빈도해석 모형 개발

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Oon-Ki (Disaster & Safety Administration, Jeongeup City Hall) ;
  • Lee, Jeong-Ju (Water Resources Investigation & Planning Dept., K-water)
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김진영 (전북대학교 대학원 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김운기 (정읍시청 재난안전관리과) ;
  • 이정주 (한국수자원공사 조사기획처)
  • Received : 2012.08.02
  • Accepted : 2012.09.17
  • Published : 2013.01.31
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Abstract

The main objective of this study was to develop a new regional frequency analysis model based on hierarchical Bayesian model that allows us to better estimate and quantify model parameters as well as their associated uncertainties. A Monte-carlo experiment procedure has been set up to verify the proposed regional frequency analysis. It was found that the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis outperformed the existing L-moment based regional frequency analysis in terms of reducing biases associated with the model parameters. Especially, the bias is remarkably decreased with increasing return period. The proposed model was applied to six weather stations in Jeollabuk-do, and compared with the existing L-moment approach. This study also provided shrinkage process of the model parameters that is a typical behavior in hierarchical Bayes models. The results of case study show that the proposed model has the potential to obtain reliable estimates of the parameters and quantitatively provide their uncertainties.

본 연구에서는 계층적 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 새로운 지역빈도해석 모형을 개발하는데 목적이 있으며 이를 통해서 신뢰성 있는 매개변수를 추정과 동시에 지역빈도해석 절차의 불확실성 평가를 용이하게 접근할 수 있도록 하였다. 본 연구에서 제안되는 계층적 Bayesian 기반 지역빈도해석 모형(HBRFA)의 적합성을 평가하기 위해서 모의실험을 수행하였다. 즉, 10개의 모의 관측소를 대상으로 Monte-Carlo 모의를 통한 평가를 수행하였으며 전체적으로 HBRFA 모형이 기존 L-모멘트 방법에 비해 편의를 줄여주는 것으로 평가되었다. 특히 재현기간이 증가될수록 편의가 두드러지게 감소되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 전라북도의 6개 강우지점을 대상으로 HBRFA 모형과 기존 L-모멘트 기반 지역빈도해석 결과를 비교하였다. 계층적 Bayesian 모형의 특징을 평가하고자 매개변수의 Shrinkage 과정을 정량적으로 도출하여 제시하였으며 추정된 지역확률강수량이 기존 L-모멘트 기법과 유사한 결과를 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 더불어 빈도별 확률강수량의 불확실성을 정량적으로 제시할 수 장점을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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