• Title/Summary/Keyword: 발전량 분석

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자녀양육비의 추정

  • 김원년
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 1987
  • This paper was set out to study the structure of the career occupational mobility in the early and rapid phase of industrialization in Korea. By analyzing the individual life histories regarding occupational mobility and achievement, I propose a model of yearly career mobility of Korean men and Women during the period of 30 years between 1954 and 1983. With the occupational classification scheme of 5 groups - Upper Nonmanual, Lower Nonmanual, Self Employed, Manual, Farm - the mobility pattern in the person-year mobility table analyzed can be characterized primarily by the strong influence of immobility. The degree of immobility, however, is different by the occupational groups. The absolute amount of immobility can be summarized as being U-shaped. Overall, the pattern of mobility can be explained best by the concept of occupational distance. I then propose a model of relative career occupational mobility pattern that combines the conceptual and theoretical basis and the methodological rigor. The model is based on the notion of the reproduction of inequality, the labor market context, and the life history perspective. The model encompasses the 6 conceptual explanatory factors such as persistence effect, ceiling effect, traditional sector effect, nonmanual occupation effect, alternative mobility channel effect, and occupational distance effect, as well as the effects of both origin and destination occupations. The relative pattern of career mobiliity in Korea can be characterized by the following six findings. First, the persistence effect on the diagonal cells of the mobility table is dominant. Second, a clear evidence of the negative effect of occupational distance between nonmanual occupations and manual and farm occupations is found. Third, the out-mobility from farming took place regardless of the destination occupations. Fourth, the internal mobility within the nonmanual occupation block is high and bi-directional, and is exclusive against other occupations. Fifth, the 'self employed' occupation is serving a peculiar function in both inflow and outflow pattern. Last, the relative pattern of career occupation mobility is asymmetrical in terms of the upward and downward mobility.

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Actual Conditions of Burglaries and Analysis on Residential Invasion Burglaries in Daegu Area (강도 범죄의 실태 및 대구 지역 침입 강도 범죄 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kwak, Jyung-Sik
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2007
  • During the period from 2001 to 2005, 29,892 burglaries took place in Korea with the approximate average annual number - 5,978 cases. This study was conducted to analyze the reported burglaries and the result was summarized as follows. There were 8,605 residential invasion burglaries (28.8%) as the most frequent characteristic pattern. The exit was used as the most frequent invasion route for 4,031 invasion burglaries (64.3%), and an unlocked exit door or window was used as the most frequent invasion method for 2,462 invasion burglaries (28.6%). The hours just after midnight (between 00:00 and 04:00) were the most frequent time for invasion burglary to occur. Also, 5,652 burglaries occurred on Wednesday which was twice higher than on Sunday (2,988 burglaries). It was shown that the number of persons injured during burglaries were 260 deaths and 10,610 injuries. The places of the highest occurrence were the street with 10,183 burglaries (34%) and then residential place with 7,527 burglaries (approximately 25%). One-man burglary was the highest complicity: 15,012 offenders (56.1%). The knife was used as the most frequent instrument for 6,498 burglaries (24,3%) what is rare, while no criminal tool or instrument was used for 15,631 burglaries (58.4). During the period from 2001 to 2006, 1,506 burglaries occurred in Daegu and the average annual number was 251 burglaries. Among those,515 residential invasion burglaries (34.2%) took place and the average annual number was approximately 86 cases. The hours just after midnight (between 00:00 and 04:00) were the most frequent time for invasion burglary to occur (194 cases, 37.7%), the place of the highest invasion occurrence was the residential place (259 cases, 50.3%), and the exit was used as the most frequent invasion route (87 cases, 37.7%). An unlocked exit door or window was the most frequent invasion method (65 cases, 25.1%). In addition, pretending to be a delivery man, visitor or following the victim methods were used for 26 burglaries (10%). It is apparent that personal preventive measures against crimes, as well as governmental and social measures, play an important role in preventing burglaries. In particular, based on the analyzed result that an unlocked window or exit door was most frequently used for reported burglaries, it seems that there is a lack of understanding of crime prevention while little effort has been made to prevent crimes. Although everyone knows that locking a door is one of the basic measures to prevent crimes, many people tend to pay little attention to lock a door properly so burglary takes place. This study, therefore, is intended to encourage people to pay more careful attention to crime prevention, in order to help reduce the probability of burglary. With the recent improvement in social understanding of scientific crime investigation, a wide variety of police professions, including crime analysts, crime victim police counselors and coroners, have been prepared to develop the scientific crime investigation and crime analysis. In addition, it is hoped that further this study will contribute to encourage studies on crime prevention to be carried out in the future.

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The utility of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in obese children (소아 비만아에서 ambulatory blood pressure monitoring의 유용성)

  • Kim, Myung Jin;Song, Jin Young
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.604-609
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Obesity in children and adolescence is highly correlated with adult obesity, which can provoke hypertension. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the blood pressure of obese children regularly. In this study, the results of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) in obese children and adolescents were evaluated. Methods : ABPM was conducted for selected patients who visited Handong University Sunlin Hospital from Feb. 1, 2006 to Dec. 1, 2007. The patients were classified into 3 groups: group 1 was normal, group 2 had normal casual blood pressure and a body mass index over the 95th percentile, and group 3 had high casual blood pressure over 120/80 mm Hg and a body mass index over the 95th percentile. Systolic and diastolic 24-hour blood pressure was measured, including both day and night. Results : There were 49 patients in the study. The results showed a significant difference for average systolic blood pressure between the three groups ($105.1{\pm}4.7$, $111.0{\pm}7.1$, $117.8{\pm}6.6mmHg$, P<0.001), but for average diastolic blood pressure only between groups 1 and 3 ($69.1{\pm}5.3$, $77.9{\pm}6.3mmHg$, P=0.001). In the daytime, only groups 1 and 3 showed a statistically significant difference for systolic and diastolic blood pressure. During the night the systolic pressure of group 3 was significantly higher than the other groups, but the diastolic pressure of group 3 was only higher than that group 1. No statistical difference was found in night dips among the groups. Conclusion : Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in children and adolescents showed statistically higher blood pressure in obese patients with high casual blood pressure.

Larch Pellets Fabricated with Coffee Waste and the Commercializing Potential of the Pellets (커피박과 낙엽송 목분을 이용한 펠릿 제조 및 이에 대한 상용화 검토)

  • Yang, In;Han, Gyu Seong;Oh, Seung Won
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to suggest the effective management and recycling processes of coffee waste, which can be easily obtained from coffee shops and coffee-related products industries. Prior to the fabrication of pellets, the potential of coffee waste as a raw material of pellet was investigated through the examination of its chemical compositions and fuel characteristics. Major gradient included in coffee waste was holocellulose, followed by fat/oil and protein. Coffee waste contained a small quantity of ash (0.7%), such as calcium, sodium, potassium and magnesium. Interestingly, coffee waste was easily dried probably due to its porous structure. Pellets fabricated with coffee waste and larch sawdust showed good fuel characteristics, such as moisture content, ash content, density and durability. The pellets exceed greatly the minimum requirements of $1^{st}$-grade wood pellet standard designated by National Institute of Forest Science (NIFOS). Particularly, the high calorific value of coffee waste showed the potential as a raw material of pellet. However, owing to high nitrogen and sulfur contents, coffee waste is like to be used as a raw material of wood pellet for combined heat and power plants equipped with a reduction system of $NO_x$ and $SO_x$ gases. On the other hand, 91 wt% larch sawdust and 9 wt% coffee waste are required to fabricate the $1^{st}$-grade wood pellets designated by NIFOS. Pellets fabricated with the conditions are estimated to have nitrogen content of 0.298% and sulfur content of 0.03%. Lastly, if amounts of coffee waste and sawdust in the production of wood pellets are adequately adjusted according to its purchasing price, the manufacturing cost of pellet can effectively be reduced. In addition, it is expected tp prepare the effective recycling process of waste and to relieve the environmental burden with the reduction of waste from the commercialization of coffee waste/larch pellets.

A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.

Location Service Modeling of Distributed GIS for Replication Geospatial Information Object Management (중복 지리정보 객체 관리를 위한 분산 지리정보 시스템의 위치 서비스 모델링)

  • Jeong, Chang-Won;Lee, Won-Jung;Lee, Jae-Wan;Joo, Su-Chong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.13D no.7 s.110
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    • pp.985-996
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    • 2006
  • As the internet technologies develop, the geographic information system environment is changing to the web-based service. Since geospatial information of the existing Web-GIS services were developed independently, there is no interoperability to support diverse map formats. In spite of the same geospatial information object it can be used for various proposes that is duplicated in GIS separately. It needs intelligent strategies for optimal replica selection, which is identification of replication geospatial information objects. And for management of replication objects, OMG, GLOBE and GRID computing suggested related frameworks. But these researches are not thorough going enough in case of geospatial information object. This paper presents a model of location service, which is supported for optimal selection among replication and management of replication objects. It is consist of tree main services. The first is binding service which can save names and properties of object defined by users according to service offers and enable clients to search them on the service of offers. The second is location service which can manage location information with contact records. And obtains performance information by the Load Sharing Facility on system independently with contact address. The third is intelligent selection service which can obtain basic/performance information from the binding service/location service and provide both faster access and better performance characteristics by rules as intelligent model based on rough sets. For the validity of location service model, this research presents the processes of location service execution with Graphic User Interface.

The Design of Wireless Underwater Telephone -Analysis of Underwater Background Noise for Wireless Underwater Telephone Design - (수중 무선 전화기의 설계 - 수중무선전화기 설계를 위한 수중소음분석을 중심으로-)

  • 박문갑;윤갑동;김석제;윤종락
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.302-307
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    • 2001
  • The underwater background noise measured in Geoje and Tongyoung diving fishing ground from May to December, 2000 and analyzed to get optimum carrier frequency and transmitter power level for underwater wireless telephone design. The results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. At the Geoje and Tongyoung diving fishing ground, the lowest ambient noise band was 25~30kHz with 57dB and 52dB re 1$\mu$Pa, respectively. 2. At the Geoje and Tongyoung diving fishing ground, the lowest noise band during fishing activity was 67dB and 62dB re 1$\mu$Pa, respectively. 3. At the Geoje diving fishing ground, the noise of water jetter which is a digging machine for subbottom shells was 102dB re 1$\mu$Pa. 4. Considering the design parameters of underwater wireless telephone, it is found that the optimum carrier frequency band is around 30kHz and the transmitter source level should be at least 131dB re 1$\mu$Pa for 500m range telephone.

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Calibration of Pyranometer with Solar Radiation Intercomparison Observation at Research Institute for Radiation-Satellite, Gangneung-Wonju National University (강릉원주대학교 복사-위성연구소에서 실외 비교관측을 통한 전천일사계 교정)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Zo, Il-Sung;Kim, Bu-Yo;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Yoo, Myeong-Seon;Lee, Yong-Joo;Jang, Jeong-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.135-148
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    • 2019
  • Although the technology for the observation of solar radiation is rapidly developing worldwide, in Korea the guidelines for comparing observations of solar radiation are only now under preparation. In this study, a procedure for intercomparison observations of solar radiation was established which accounts for meteorological and geographical conditions. The intercomparisons among observations by national reference pyranometers were carried out at the Asia Regional Radiation Center, Japan, in 2017. Recently, the result of the calibration of the reference pyranometer of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) has been reported. Using the KMA pyranometer as a reference, comparisons between observations and calibrations were carried out for the standard (B to J) pyranometers of the KMA, and for the reference (A) and the standard pyranometers of the Gangneung-Wonju National University. The intercomparisons were carried out between October 24 and October 25, 2018. The sensitivity constants were adjusted according to the results of the data analysis performed on October 24. On October 25, a post-comparison observation was also performed, and the data of the participating pyranometers were verified. The sensitivity constants were calculated using only data corresponding to a solar radiation of $450.0W\;m^{-2}$ or higher. The B and I pyranometers exhibited a small error (${\pm}0.50W\;m^{-2}$), and the applied sensitivity constants were in the range $0.08-0.16{\mu}V(W\;m^{-2})^{-1}$. For the C pyranometer, the adjustment of the sensitivity constant was the largest, i.e., $-0.16{\mu}V(W\;m^{-2})^{-1}$. As a result, the nine candidate pyranometers could be calibrated with an average error of $0.06W\;m^{-2}$ (0.08%) with respect to the KMA reference, which falls within the allowed tolerance of ${\pm}1.00%$ (or ${\pm}4.50W\;m^{-2}$).

Estimation of Rice Canopy Height Using Terrestrial Laser Scanner (레이저 스캐너를 이용한 벼 군락 초장 추정)

  • Dongwon Kwon;Wan-Gyu Sang;Sungyul Chang;Woo-jin Im;Hyeok-jin Bak;Ji-hyeon Lee;Jung-Il Cho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.387-397
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    • 2023
  • Plant height is a growth parameter that provides visible insights into the plant's growth status and has a high correlation with yield, so it is widely used in crop breeding and cultivation research. Investigation of the growth characteristics of crops such as plant height has generally been conducted directly by humans using a ruler, but with the recent development of sensing and image analysis technology, research is being attempted to digitally convert growth measurement technology to efficiently investigate crop growth. In this study, the canopy height of rice grown at various nitrogen fertilization levels was measured using a laser scanner capable of precise measurement over a wide range, and a comparative analysis was performed with the actual plant height. As a result of comparing the point cloud data collected with a laser scanner and the actual plant height, it was confirmed that the estimated plant height measured based on the average height of the top 1% points showed the highest correlation with the actual plant height (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 2.73). Based on this, a linear regression equation was derived and used to convert the canopy height measured with a laser scanner to the actual plant height. The rice growth curve drawn by combining the actual and estimated plant height collected by various nitrogen fertilization conditions and growth period shows that the laser scanner-based canopy height measurement technology can be effectively utilized for assessing the plant height and growth of rice. In the future, 3D images derived from laser scanners are expected to be applicable to crop biomass estimation, plant shape analysis, etc., and can be used as a technology for digital conversion of conventional crop growth assessment methods.