• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.54-61
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• 2016

There are many pilot programs and projects to implement the water quality trading (WQT) policy. But actual trading is relatively rare. The main reason of the scarce applications of WQT policy is the difficulty in determining the equalities between the trading sites. The uncertainty of the impacts of the nonpoint sources pollutant discharges between up and downstream urban development areas also makes the implementation of the policy harder. The simulated results from the watershed modeling program will be used to calculate the point and nonpoint sources pollutants of the future urban development scenarios. The amount of suspended sediments resulting from the urban developments and rainfall intensities will be used to indicate the environmental impacts of the water body between upstream and downstream. The water quality impacts after development scenarios to the outlet of the watershed were transferred to the trading units between two sites. The recommended trading units can be used as a decision support system for policy makers and stakeholders to carry out better WQT practices.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.804-804
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• 2012

기후변화는 범지구적으로 당면한 과제로서 국제적으로도 이에 대한 저감 완화대책 수립 및 시행에 힘쓰고 있다. 이러한 세계적 관심에 따라 최근 우리나라도 국가 물 안보에 대한 보고서 등의 개정에 관심을 기울이고 있는 실정이다. 그러나 이러한 당면한 문제에 대한 계획을 수립하기 위해서는 무엇보다도 직면하고 있는 사실에 대한 이해가 필요하다. 특히 우리나라의 경우에는 비록 국토가 좁은 나라에 속하지만 호우의 계절적 지역적 편차가 큰 편이기 때문에 무엇보다 지역별 변화에 대한 연구가 필요한 실정이다. 지금까지의 수문학 분야의 기후변화에 대한 영향 연구는 대부분 유역을 중심으로 수행되어 왔다. 이는 자연현상을 모의하기 위해서이나 실제적으로 국가예산 계획수립 및 투입은 주로 지자체단위로 이루어지기 때문에 지자체별 영향에 대한 연구도 매우 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서의 지역적 범위는 지자체단위로 하였다. 이러한 지역별 분석의 범위는 최소 단위의 의사결정자들을 위한 범주가 되면 이상적이겠지만 실제적으로 이는 여러 가지 이유로 어려운 점이 있기 때문에 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 광역지자체를 공간적 범위로 설정하였다. 또한 기후변화 시나리오는 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 4차 보고서의 탄소배출 시나리오 중 널리 사용되고 있는 3종(A1B, A2, B1) 선정하였으며, GCM은 4종(CNRM: CM3, CSIRO: MK3, CONS: ECHO-G, UKMO: HADCM3)을 적용하였다. 최종적으로 각 광역자 치단체별-시나리오별-GCM 별로 4개의 기간 구간 (2080-2009, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099)으로 나누어 평균 일최대강우량 및 연총강우량의 변화를 분석하였으며, 이러한 분석법은 일본 국토교통성의 경우 이러한 방법에 일최대강우량에 적용하여 미래 기후변화로 인하여 치수안전도 변화 분석에 활용한 바 있다.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.345-352
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• 2017

The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1091-1103
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• 2018

Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.107-116
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• 2019

Multi-purpose dams in Korea play a very important role in water management such as supplying water for living, industrial water, and discharging instream flow requirement to maintain the functions of river. However, the vulnerability of dam water supply has been increased due to extreme weather events that are possible linked to climate change. This study attempts to project the future dam inflow of six multi-purpose dams by using dynamically downscaled climate change scenarios with high resolution. It is found that the high flows are remarkably increased under global warming, regardless of basins and climate models. In contrast, the low flows for Soyangang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam that dam inflow are originated from Taebaek mountains are significantly decreased. On the other hand, while the low flow of Hapcheon dam is shown to increase, those of Daecheong and Sumjingang dams have little changes. But, the low flows for future period have wide ranges and the minimum value of low flows are decreased for all dams except for Hapcheon dam. Therefore, it is necessary to establish new water management policy that can respond to extreme water shortages considering climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.145-159
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on turbidity water and eutrophication for Chungju Lake by using CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir water quality model coupled with SWAT watershed model. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2000~2010) daily streamflow data at three locations and monthly stream water quality data at two locations. The CE-QUAL-W2 was calibrated and validated for 2 years (2008 and 2010) water temperature, suspended solid, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and Chl-a. For the future assessment, the SWAT results were used as boundary conditions for CE-QUAL-W2 model run. To evaluate the future water quality variation in reservoir, the climate data predicted by MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B for three periods (2013~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100) were downscaled by Artificial Neural Networks method to consider Typhoon effect. The RCM temperature and precipitation outputs and historical records were used to generate pollutants loading from the watershed. By the future temperature increase, the lake water temperature showed $0.5^{\circ}C$ increase in shallow depth while $-0.9^{\circ}C$ in deep depth. The future annual maximum sediment concentration into the lake from the watershed showed 17% increase in wet years. The future lake residence time above 10 mg/L suspended solids (SS) showed increases of 6 and 17 days in wet and dry years respectively comparing with normal year. The SS occupying rate of the lake also showed increases of 24% and 26% in both wet and dry year respectively. In summary, the future lake turbidity showed longer lasting with high concentration comparing with present behavior. Under the future lake environment by the watershed and within lake, the future maximum Chl-a concentration showed increases of 19 % in wet year and 3% in dry year respectively.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.81-90
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• 2017

In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.431-443
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• 2009

Recently, turbidity problem is one of the hot issues in dam and reservoir management works. Main reason to bring about high density turbid water is sediment yield by rainfall intensity energy. Because existing researches didn't consider diverse types of crops, it was difficult to calculate more accurate soil erosion and sediment yield. This study was evaluated the reduction efficiency of soil erosion and sediment yield using ginseng layer extracted from IKONOS satellite image, and the area and the ratio of ginseng area represented $0.290km^2$ and 0.94%. The reduction efficiency of soil erosion considering ginseng area represented low value in 0.9% using GIS-based RUSLE model, because the area of ginseng was small compared to areas of other agricultural lands. To reflect future land use change, this study was calculated the reduction efficiency of soil erosion and sediment yield by considering many scenarios as kinds of crops of paddy, dry field, orchard, and other agricultural areas convert to the ginseng district. As result of analysis of them according to scenarios, scenario (1) in which dry field was converted to ginseng area and scenario (2) in which fully agricultural lands were converted to ginseng area showed high reduction efficiency as 31.3% and 34.8% respectively, compared to existing research which didn't consider ginseng area. Methodology suggested in this study will be very efficient tools to help reservoir management related to high density turbid water.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.362-362
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• 2019

제주도는 화산섬의 지질특성상 지표수의 개발이용여건이 취약한 관계로 용수의 대부분을 지하수에 의존하고 있다. 따라서 제주도는 정책 및 연구적으로 오랜 기간 동안 지하수의 보전관리에 많은 노력을 기울여 오고 있다. 하지만 최근 기후변화로 인한 지하수위의 하강 및 해수면 상승으로 인한 해수침투의 문제가 꾸준히 제기되고 있으며, 제주도 일부지역에서는 축산폐수 등으로 인해 지하수의 수질오염문제가 발생하고 있다. 따라서 제주도 지하수의 수량 및 수질에 대한 체계적인 관리의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 지하수에 절대적으로 의존하고 있는 제주도의 수자원의 개발 및 이용 여건을 고려할 때, 지하수의 수량 및 수질에 대한 학술적 토대가 확고히 구축되어야 할 뿐만 아니라 기후변화에 대응한 최적 물관리기법의 개발이 필요한 실정이다. 하지만 제주도의 수자원에 대한 기존의 연구들은 제주도 전역에 대해 최신의 분석방법을 사용한 종합적인 연구가 아닌 일부지역을 대상으로 한 지하지질분석, 지구물리탐사 및 대수성시험 위주의 단편적 분석, 개념적 수문모델의 적용에 의한 대략적인 분석, 또는 일부지역을 대상으로 한 지하수 흐름분석 및 해수침투 분석 위주로 수행되었다. 이러한 기존의 연구들은 여러 가지 문제점을 내포하고 있는데 첫째, 일부지역의 지하지질이 제주도의 복잡한 지하지질특성을 대표할 수 없다는 점과 둘째, 개념적 수문모델은 제주도와 같이 강우의 큰 시공간적 변동성을 고려할 수 없으며 지하지질 특성의 공간적 변동성 또한 적절히 반영할 수 없다는 점 및 셋째, 지하수의 이동은 유역경계와 일치하지 않으므로 독립된 소유역을 대상으로 산정한 지하수 부존량은 소유역내 실제 지하수 부존량과 다를 수 있다는 점 그리고 마지막으로 개별적으로 수행된 지표수, 지하수 및 수질 분석들은 서로 연결성이 없어 이들 간의 상호작용을 고려하지 않아 그 결과의 신뢰성이 떨어진다는 점 등이다. 이러한 제주도에 대한 기존 연구들의 한계점을 극복하기 위해서는 제주도 전역에 대한 종합적인 연구가 필요하다. 이를 위한 방안으로서 제주도 전체를 대상으로 한 최신의 분포형 수문모델의 구축이 필요하며 이 수문모델은 지표수 및 지하수의 상호작용과 해수침투 및 수질 또한 모의할 수 있어야 할 것이다. 그리고 이 개발된 모형과 기후변화 시나리오를 사용하여 미래 수자원변화에 대한 대응이 필요하다. 이에 대한 해외연구사례로서 미국지질조사국이 하와이 섬들 및 괌 등에 대해 수행했던 연구들을 참고할 수 있다. 제주도 전체에 대한 신뢰할만한 종합적인 분석결과는 제주도 수자원의 정책수립에 기초로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

• Archives of design research
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• v.20 no.1 s.69
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• pp.5-20
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• 2007

The aim of this research is to find out the flows of mega-trends and design trends by analyzing the factors that influence trend and design trends in the late 20th century. Moreover, it is to forecast and recommend design color trends by evaluating color trends in design trends for the near future. Secondary and primary research were used in parallel. In the late 20th century, mega-trends were analyzed from secondary research based on PEST. Design trends were analyzed from case studies in fashion, space, product and visual design. On this basis, design color trends were analyzed. Also, color trends were forecast for the near future. The results are as follows. Firstly, the main trends in the late 20th century were 'female thinking', 'back to the nature' and 'heaven of peace'. Second, main design trends in the 1970s were modernism, post-modernism and high-tech. In the 1980s, with those of the 1970s, ecology was introduced In the late 1980s. In the 1990s, modernism rose again and ecology had an influence. The trends of 'female thinking' and 'back to the nature' controled the design in the early 2000s. Third, design colors in the late 20th century changed from Red to Purple Blue. Tones changed from 'grayish' to 'dull' Finally, it was forecast that Purple Blue, Yellow Red and Green colors with 'grayish', 'dull' and 'deep' tones were going to be used mainly in the near future. Also, achromatic colors with female and warm nuances would be reflected in design parts. This research will be very useful in that it has built a concrete database reflected on design trends forecasting in the near future by organizing academically a methodology to identify trends reflected on design and identifying relation between mega-trends and design trends based on analyzing factors that influence trend.