• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.189-200
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of China's trade relationships with and dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative and to present some implications. This study collected annual total imports, exports, and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 198 countries and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on 221 countries from 1995 to 2015. China's imports and exports have expanded considerably from the mid-1990s to the present, and China's dependence on imports and exports with the US and Japan has declined, while its dependence on the Middle East, South Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia has increased. China has a very high level of dependence on imports from and exports to the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative, and as the Belt and Road project progresses, the mutual trade dependency between China and the other participating countries is expected to strengthen and expand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.57-82
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• 1988

본 연구는 도시규모 결정에 관해 수요 또는 공급측면만을 중시하는 재래식 접근 방 법을 통합, 개선하는 일반균형의 모형을 제시하고 이에 따라 국가 도시규모체계의 효율성을 이해하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이 모형의 주요한 요소는 도시집적이익 및 불이익, 산업구조 그 리고 도시간 자원이동 및 무역을 통한 상호의존성 등이다. 엄밀한 이론적, 절대적 적정 도시 규모체계는 모든 도시가 완전자립 하에 단위도시 적정규모를 이루어 동일규모일 때 가능하 며 시민의 복지가 극대화된다. 그러나 실제 인적, 물적 이동성이 완벽하지 않은 현실 하에서 는 도시규모간 위계성이 생기게 되며 이는 도시간 무역을 가능케하여 상대적 도시규모의 적 정성을 대변해 준다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2020.07a
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• pp.617-618
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• 2020

우리나라의 지리적인 여건상 대륙과 연결되지 않기 때문에 해상운송에 절대적으로 의존하고 있다. 해상운송에 있어 항만시설의 확보가 필요하며 대외무역의존도가 높은 우리나라의 경우 더욱 중요한 역할을 한다. 항만시설은 장기적인 항만수요예측을 통해 대규모 인프라투자를 결정하며 단기적인 예측은 항만운영의 효율성을 개선하고 항만의 경쟁력을 제고하는데 기여하므로 예측의 정확성을 높이기 위해 많은 노력이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 딥러닝 모델 중에 하나인 LSTM(Long Short Term Memory)을 적용하여 우리나라 주요항만의 컨테이너 물동량 단기예측을 수행하여 선행연구들에서 주류를 이뤘던 ARIMA류의 시계열모델과 비교하여 예측성능을 평가할 것이다. 본 논문은 학문적으로 항만수요예측에 관한 새로운 예측모델을 제시하였다는 측면에서 의미가 있으며 실무적으로 항만수요예측에 대한 정확성을 개선하여 항만투자의사결정에 과학적인 근거로서 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Feed Journal
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• v.3 no.5 s.21
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• pp.73-78
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• 2005

FTA지각생으로 불리던 우리나라도 FTA추진 논의가 활발하다. 작년 2월 FTA국회 비준 이후 싱가폴, 일본, ASEAN, EFTA 등 여러나라와 FTA관련협상을 추진 중이며 싱가폴의 경우에는 작년 11월 ASEAN +3 정상회담을 계기로 양국정상이 사실상 협상타결을 선언하였다. 종전에는 대부분의 나라들이 자유무역협정(FTA), 지역무역협정(RTA), 특혜무역협정(PTA) 지역주의 등 명칭은 다양하지만 FTA로 대표되는 지역주의를 다자간 자유무역체제의 보완적인 통상정책수단으로 간주하는 경향이 있었다. 그러나, 최근에는 FTA추진이 WTO 체제를 보조하는 통상정책수단이라기 보다는 WTO로 대표되는 다자간교역질서와 병립하는 통상질서로 보는 추세가 점점 나타나고 있다. 대외의존도가 높은 우리나라도 FTA를 통하여 개방정책을 추진할 필요성은 있으나 FTA의 추진시 농업 등 취약산업의 구조조정이 문제가 될 수 있다. 이글에서는 FTA가 WTO로 대표되는 다자간 무역체제와 구분되는 특징과 최근 국제적인 FTA추진동향을 짚어보고 우리나라의 FTA추진 현황과 문제점 특히, 우리나라가 제일 먼저 추진한 한$\cdot$칠레FTA 관련한 문제점을 중심으로 설명하고 최근의 FTA추진이 우리나라 농업에 대한 영향에 대해서 간략하게 평가하고 FTA추진에 대한 대응방안을 이야기 하는 순서로 글을 전개하고자 한다.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.275-298
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• 2011

In 2010, it appears that Korean economic growth rate heavily depends on its international trade. Thus, a sustainable growth of the international trade is very important to Korea. To increase export, a continuous making profits is the most important to companies and TSO(Trade Support Organization) needs to provide a trade support services to the exporting firms. In this context, this study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between company performance and service quality, utilization and customer satisfaction of TSO. Some implications from the results of this study are suggested. First, TSO needs to boost the utilization of its services by enhancing systemizing, reliability and empathy of its service qualities. And then, TSO needs to encourage companies to focus on export-oriented business mind, since these companies have tendency to show a better practical application and high degree of performance as well. Third, TSO needs to develop some exceptional services for the companies with the low weight of export in turnover since those groups tend to have higher customer satisfaction. Our major findings contribute to the trade support service planning of TSO.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.215-237
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• 2011

The paper is basically designed to reveal substitutability or complementary nature of export and import among Korea, China, and Japan by employing unit root test, cointegration technique, and vector error correction model(VECM). Empirical evidences are shown that the trading among these countries has been dominated by a complementary nature in the short run which enables it to promote trading in those countries. In the long run, however, the substitutability nature effects strongly to the trading among Korea, China, and Japan. To this end, it could be tentatively concluded that market-oriented trading policies are more effective to stimulate the export and import in those countries in the short run, while a trading policy has to be selectively implemented by the substitutability nature in the long run basis. For instance, a stability policy for exchange rates and various commercial policies could be set for a short term target. Whereas, the substitutability nature should be counted in building up a new industrial structure or in implementing FTA agreement among Korea, China, and Japan.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Surface Engineering Conference
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• 2014.11a
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• pp.222-223
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• 2014

전량 수입에 의존하고 있는 고가의 HEV 및 FPC용 압연동박 대체, 대일 무역 역조개선, 전방위 업체 국제 가격 경쟁력 강화 기여.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.477-498
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• 2010

This paper studies economic growth convergence conditioning on various characteristics of East Asian countries. Our findings suggest that when trade openness is conditioned in addition to human capital and investment, the economic growth rates for East Asian countries converge faster than when human capital and investment alone are considered. In particular, while Northeast Asian countries exhibit absolute economic growth convergence as well as economic growth convergence conditioned on trade openness, Southeast Asian countries show only economic growth convergence conditioned on trade openness. Analysis of policy implications based on the results of the first East Asian countries' high dependence on foreign trade, trade openness in the convergence of economic growth has had a significant positive effect. Second, in order to establish a regional economic integration in East Asia, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, the country's economic growth is necessary to reduce the gap.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.127-152
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• 2017

With the advent of the WTO system in 1995, non-tariff barriers including technical barriers to trade(TBT) has become one of the important issues in world trade order. The purpose of this study is to analyse an impact of the calibration and measurement capabilities(CMC), the degree of equivalence of national measurement standards which is maintained by NMIs to provide governments with a technical foundation for wider agreements related to international trade. The results of the analysis using the gravity model with the proxy of the CMC shows that the CMC has a positive impact on Korean trade. Particularly, it was estimated that the CMC registered by high-income economies has more impact on Korean trade than those by low income economies. This implies that the countries highly dependent upon foreign trade like Korea need to have much more interest in the investment into measurement standards and science which is generally considered to be a public goods.