• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.143-154
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• 2024

Heat waves caused by climate change are rapidly increasing health damage to vulnerable groups, and to prevent this, the national, regional, and local governments are establishing climate crisis adaptation policy. A representative climate crisis adaptation policy to reduce heat wave damage is to expand the number of cooling centers. Because it is highly effective in a short period of time, most metropolitan local governments, except Jeonbuk, include the project as an adaptation policy. However, the criteria for selecting a cooling centers are different depending on the budget and non-budget, so the utilization rate and effectiveness of the cooling centers are all different. Therefore, in this study, we developed logistic regression models that can predict and evaluate areas with a high probability of expanding cooling centers in order to implement adaptation policy in local governments. In Incheon Metropolitan City, which consists of various heat wave-vulnerable environments due to the coexistence of the old city and the new city, a logistic model was developed to predict areas where heat waves can be cooling centered by dividing it into Ganghwa·Ongjin-gun and other regions, taking into account socioeconomic and environmental differences. As a result of the study, the statistical model for the Ganghwa·Ogjin-gun region showed that the higher the ground surface temperature and the more and more the number of elderly people over 65 years old, the higher the possibility of location of cooling centers, and the prediction accuracy was about 80.93%. The developed logistic regression model can predict and evaluate areas with a high potential as cooling centers by considering regional environmental and social characteristics, and is expected to be used for priority selection and management when designating additional cooling centers in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.1-23
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• 2018

This study aims to propose a way for evaluating thermal environment vulnerability associated with policy to improve thermal environment. For this purpose, a variety of indices concerning thermal vulnerability assessment and adaptation policies for climate change applied to 17 Korean cities were reviewed and examined. Finally, 15 indices associated with policies for improving thermal environment were selected. The selected indices for thermal vulnerability assessment were applied to Daegu Metropolitan City of South Korea as a case study. As results, 15 vulnerability maps based on the standardized indices were established, and a comprehensive map with four grades of thermal vulnerability were established for Daegu Metropolitan City. As results, the area with the highest rated area in the first-grade(most vulnerable to heat) was Dong-gu, followed by Dalseo-gu and Buk-gu, and the highest area ratio of the first-grade regions was Ansim-1-dong in Dong-gu. Based on the standardized indices, the causes of the thermal environment vulnerability of Ansim-1-dong were accounted for the number of basic livelihood security recipients, the number of cardiovascular disease deaths, heat index, and Earth's surface temperature. To improve the thermal environment vulnerability of Ansim-1-dong, active policy implementation is required in expansion and maintenance of heat wave shelters, establishment of database for the population with diseases susceptible to high temperature environments, expansion of shade areas and so on. This study shows the applicability of the vulnerability assessment method linked with the policies and is expected to contribute to the strategic and effective establishment of thermal environment policies in urban master district plans.