• Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2009

With the increase in construction of long railway tunnel, social interest in the railway tunnel fire risk has also increased. However, quantitative fire risk research on this topic is still lacking, especially in terms of consideration of uncertainty of each variables used in risk analysis. Hence, in this study, to improve the overall performance of fire risk analysis technique for railway tunnel, Monte-Carlo simulation method is added to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis based on event tree approach and its validity is investigated by applying it to the real railway tunnel project.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.83-92
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• 2016

Tolerances are defined as the allowable variations in the geometry and positioning of parts in a mechanical assembly for assuring its proper functionality. Tolerance analysis is the activity related to estimating the potential accumulated variation in assemblies. If the estimated variances go out of the specified ranges, it causes the quality problem. Thus, we should adjust the tolerances and this activity is called as tolerance design. In this paper, a case study on the accumulated tolerance analysis and design using Monte Carlo simulation is introduced, which is applied for developing a portable medical device. Using the simulation study, we can improve the assemblability and functionality of the product.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.57-66
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• 2009

수학적 모델은 수량과 수질의 예측을 위해 현장 조사의 대안으로 사용되어지며 이러한 모델의 사용과 실측에 불확실성이 존재하게 된다. 불확실성에 대한 많은 연구들이 진행되어 왔으나 시나리오에 의한 모델링 과정에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 산림이 농경지와 목초지로의 변화에 따른 시나리오를 설계한 후 시나리오 적용에 따른 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 매개변수의 불확실성을 분석하고자 하였다. 몬테카를로 기법 (Monte Carlo simulation)을 이용하여 각 매개변수별 1,000개의 난수를 발생하였으며 앙상블 유량모의 기법을 이용하여 미국 Alabama주 카하바강 상류 (50,967ha)를 대상으로 각 난수별 100개의 유량을 통해 불확실성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 산림지역이 농경지와 목초지로 변화 되었을 때 유출량이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 임야가 목초지 보다 농경지로 변화되었을 때 유출량은 더욱 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 각 시나리오별 SWAT 매개변수의 불확실성은 AWC (Available water capacity), CN (Curve number), GWREVAP (groundwater re-evaporation coeffeicient), REVAPMN (minimum depth of water in shallow aquifer for re-evaporation to occur)순으로 크게 나타났으며, Ksat (Saturated hydraulic conductivity)와 ESCO(Soil evaporation compensation factor)는 유출량의 변화에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 토지피복별 산림 면적이 클 경우 불확실성이 크게 나타나 산림이 목초지와 농경지로 변함에 따라 불확실성은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 1984

A method and computer code for the uncertainty analysis in the top event unavailability are developed and tested by combining Monte Carlo Method and Moments method with fault tree reduction technique. Using system fault trees and unavailability data selected in WASH-1400, the efficiency of the proposed method is tested and these results are compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo method. It is shown that the results are sufficiently good in accuracy and computation time is considerably reduced compared with those by Monte Carlo method.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.75-84
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• 2010

According to the available study and experimental data about the long term behavior of CFT(Concrete Filled Tube) columns, the creep and of concrete in CFT columns are smaller than those of RC columns because of the confinement effect of outer steel columns. In this study, the uncertainties associated with assumed values for concrete properties such as strength, creep coefficients, and service load have been considered and analyzed for the prediction of time-dependent column shortening of CFT column. The CFT column shortening analysis using Monte Carlo method is proposed and an of a 37 story tall building with CFT columns is studied for illustration. According to the results obtained by the probability analysis with multi parameters, the effect of variation coefficient for 3 parameters is investigated considering confidence interval.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.89-107
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• 2019

Rock joints have an extremely important role in analyzing the mechanical stability and hydraulic characteristics of rock mass structures. Most rock joint parameters are generally indicated as a distribution by statistical techniques. In this research, calculation technique of Joint Center Volume (JCV) is analyzed, which is required for estimating the size distribution having the largest uncertainty among the joint parameters, then a new technique is proposed which is applicable regardless of the shape of survey window. The existing theoretical JCV calculation technique can be applied only to the plane window, and the complete enumeration techniques show the limitations in joint trace type and analysis time. This research aims to overcome the limitations in survey window shape and joint trace type through calculating JCV by using Monte Carlo simulation. The applicability of proposed technique is validated through the estimation results at non-planar survey windows such as curved surface and tunnel surface.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.156-156
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• 2021

본 연구는 지역빈도해석을 기반으로한 인공신경망 모델과 기존에 널리 사용되는 방법인 홍수지수법의 성능을 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 평가하였다. 컴퓨터 기술이 발달함에 따라 인공지능에 대한 접근성이 좋아지며 수문학을 포함한 다양한 분야에 적용되고 있다. 인공지능을 이용하여 강수량 및 유량 등 다양한 수문자료에 대한 예측이 이루어지고 있으나 빈도해석에 관한 연구는 비교적 적다. 본 연구에서 사용된 인공 지능 모델은 대상 지점의 지형학적 자료와 수문학적 자료를 이용하여 인공신경망을 통해 지점의 확률강우량(QRT-ANN) 및 확률분포형의 매개변수 (PRT-ANN)를 추정한다. 지형학적 자료로는 위도, 경도 그리고 고도가 사용되었으며 수문학적 자료로는 대상 지점의 최근 30년 일일연최대강우량을 사용하였다. 지역빈도해석의 정확도는 지역 내 통계적 특성이 비슷한 지점들이 포함되면 될수록 높아진다. 통계적 특성으로는 불일치 척도, 이질성 척도, 적합성 척도가 있으며 다양한 조건의 통계적 특성에 따른 세 개의 지역빈도해석 방법의 성능을 평가하고자 하였다. 대상 지역 내 n개의 지점이 있다고 가정하였을 때, 홍수지수법의 경우 n-1개의 지점으로 추정한 지역 성장곡선을 이용하여 나머지 1개 지점의 확률강우량을 산정할 수 있으며 인공신경망 모델들 또한 n-1개 지점들의 자료를 이용하여 모델을 구축한 뒤 나머지 지점의 확률강우량 및 확률분포형의 매개변수를 예측할 수 있다. PRT-ANN의 경우 예측된 매개변수를 이용하여 확률강우량을 산정하며 시뮬레이션 시행마다 발생시킨 자료의 지점빈도해석 결과에 대한 나머지 세 방법의 평균 제곱근 상대오차 (Relative root mean square error, RRMSE)를 계산하였다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 성능 분석을 통하여 관측값의 다양한 통계적 특성에 맞는 지역빈도해석 방법을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.11-17
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• 2001

This paper introduces an interference analyzer based on the statistical approach called the Monte Carlo methodology, which has been chosen as one of the interference analyzing techniques in ITU-R. Furthermore, using the interference analyzer developed in this paper with modified Hata model, computer simulation is performed to examine probability of interference affecting between the base stations with FDD and TDD modes for IMT-2000. Through the simulation results, it is confirmed that two different systems with FDD/TDD modes of same frequency bands can be simultaneously used in a cell without significant interference, under the parameter conditions specified in this paper.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.477-488
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• 2000

A distance measure between two Latin-hypercube designs is defined and its expected value is computed. It was computed by using mathematical statistics, numerical analysis (multidimensional numerical integration), Monte-carlo method, and the theory of asymptotic normal distribution. For the comparison of two Latin-hypercube designs with same structure but different randomness, the difference of expected values of response function and information mass of experimental designs are considered. These methods may be useful in comparison between two general experimental designs.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.21 no.11
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• pp.2015-2021
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• 2017

Recently, a lot of attention is fallen to IoT(Internet of Things) for hyper-connected society and the number of unlicensed wireless device has been increasing. Thus, this paper analyzed the impact of unlicensed wireless device on the basis of 802.11ah on licensed LTE user equipment in 900 MHz frequency band for efficient frequency use. As the interference analysis method, Minimum Coupling Loss (MCL) method and Monte Carlo (MC) method were used. In case of one interferer, minimum separation distance between interferer and victim was calculated as about 22 m through the MCL method under the assumption of the worst case. The maximum number of interferer to meet the interference probability of 5% below within a cell radius of the victim was computed as about 3000 by using MC method based on statistical technique. The analysis method and results in this paper are expected to be used for the coexistence between unlicensed wireless device and licensed wireless device.