• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모수 변화

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Estimation of Growth Curve Parameters for Body Weight and Measurements in Castrated Hanwoo (Bostaurus Coreanae) (한우 거세우의 체중 및 체형에 대한 성장곡선 모수 추정)

  • Choi, Te-Jeong;Seo, Kang-Seok;Kim, Si-Dong;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Jae-Gwan;Hwang, In-Ho;Choi, Ho-Sung;Park, Chul-Jin
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.601-612
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to figure out how the shape of Hanwoo changes over time, examine the rank correlations between the carcass traits which are the selection traits and parameters of growth curve, and determine the correlation between body shape and carcass. Body weight, body measurements and carcass traits were measured from 161 castrated Hanwoo, and 12 growth traits and 5 carcass traits were investigated in total. The logistic model(Nelder, 1961) used for the estimation of growth curve parameters and growth characteristics at inflection point were calculated by these growth curve parameters. The value of this parameter was greatest for pinbone width, which suggests that it is an early ripening trait, while it was lowest for chest girth, suggesting it to be a late ripening trait. The rank correlations of chest depth, chest width, and hip width with backfat thickness steadily increased from 6 to 24 months, while the rank correlations of other traits decreased after 18 months until 24 months of age. Only phenotypic records were analyzed in this study, but for examine the genetic changes over growth phase in Hanwoo, if another additional genetic analysis like as estimation of genetic parameters should achieve, body measurements may be useful traits in proven bull selection.

A study on the control chart pattern for detecting shifts using neural network in start-up process (초기공정에서 공정변화에 대한 신경망을 이용한 관리도 형태 연구)

  • 이희춘
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2001
  • This Paper Propose the control chart Pattern to provide a more comprehensive scheme for detecting process shifts using individual observations in start-up process. In this paper, which uses the backpropagation algorithm two samples are fed into the trained neural network to provide outputs ranging from 0 to 1. The main advantage of using neural networks approach with a control chart is that the neural network has almost no delay in detecting small shift. This paper illustrates how neural networks can provide a useful method for optimizing parameter(connection weights) that affect process control. Simulation results show that the performance of the proposed control chart using the neural network (NNCC) is quite promising.

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Nonlinear impact of temperature change on electricity demand: estimation and prediction using partial linear model (기온변화가 전력수요에 미치는 비선형적 영향: 부분선형모형을 이용한 추정과 예측)

  • Park, Jiwon;Seo, Byeongseon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.703-720
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    • 2019
  • The influence of temperature on electricity demand is increasing due to extreme weather and climate change, and the climate impacts involves nonlinearity, asymmetry and complexity. Considering changes in government energy policy and the development of the fourth industrial revolution, it is important to assess the climate effect more accurately for stable management of electricity supply and demand. This study aims to analyze the effect of temperature change on electricity demand using the partial linear model. The main results obtained using the time-unit high frequency data for meteorological variables and electricity consumption are as follows. Estimation results show that the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand involves complexity, nonlinearity and asymmetry, which reflects the nonlinear effect of extreme weather. The prediction accuracy of in-sample and out-of-sample electricity forecasting using the partial linear model evidences better predictive accuracy than the conventional model based on the heating and cooling degree days. Diebold-Mariano test confirms significance of the predictive accuracy of the partial linear model.

Patterns of the Change and the Predictors of the Social Exclusion of the Older People: Analysis of English Longitudinal Study of Ageing(ELSA) (노인의 사회적 배제 수준의 변화유형과 예측요인: 영국고령화패널(ELSA)분석)

  • Park, Hyunju;Chung, Soondool
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1063-1086
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the current state of the older people's social exclusion by identifying patterns of the change in social exclusion level through a longitudinal analysis with an aim of exploring the predictors of changes. To this end, this study has adopted the panel data, the English longitudinal Study of Ageing(ELSA). The data of 7631 respondents who aged over 50 were used for the final analysis. The social exclusion of the older people was analyzed into five different sub-dimensions: social relationship; cultural activities; access to health services; financial security; and sense of loneliness. The person-centered approach that focuses on the various patterns of the trajectories of change has used semi-parametric group based model in order to estimate different trajectories among individuals. The data was analyzed using Spss 18.0 and SAS 9.2 proc traj. In results, First, semi-parametric group-based model analysis has shown that the older people are not 'homogeneous' group with similar exclusion level in every individual with same trajectories of change, but can be divided into various categories with diverse intercept and slope. Second, different trajectories in change of exclusion level help to confirm that the older people's social exclusion level increases gradually over time or remains unchanged. Third, this analysis has provided the useful guidelines to identify the high-risk groups of social exclusion. Forth, the variables that make difference in more than three dimensions include gender, age, self-perceived health, physical activity, weekly income, marital status, family relation, and beneficiary status. Implications and further suggestion were discussed.

The Relationship between Elderly Poverty and Depression Trajectories (노년기 빈곤궤적과 우울궤적의 관계 연구)

  • Kim, Myoung-il
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.617-635
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study was to investigate both poverty and depression among older adults, focusing on the relationship of these two trajectories. For expanding the understanding about elderly poverty and depression, the study measured the longitudinal patterns of various transition in these two variables. The data for the study is 1st to 9th waves (2006-2014) of Korea Welfare Panel Study (KoWePS), and 4,431 older adults were used for the final analysis. For data analysis, Semi-parametric group-based modeling and Dual trajectory model were selected. The main results of this study were followings; First, The trajectory groups were identified: non-poverty, decrease poverty, increase poverty, remain high-poverty, chronic poverty groups and 4 trajectories of depression: stable, remain low-depression, risk of depression, chronic depression groups. Second, the study was tried to anticipate the longitudinal transition of poverty and depression status, and investigate the concurrent relationship in these two variables. It turned out that the stable poverty status led the stable depression, and vice versa. Based on these result, this study for elderly welfare were discussed to reduce risk for poverty and depression.

Evaluation for Rock Cleavage Using Distribution of Microcrack Lengths (미세균열의 길이 분포를 이용한 결의 평가)

  • Park, Deok-Won
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.165-180
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    • 2015
  • Jurassic granite from Geochang was analysed with respect to the characteristics of the rock cleavage. The phases of distribution of microcracks were well evidenced from the enlarged photomicrographs(${\times}6.7$) of the thin section. In this study, the length - cumulative frequency diagrams were used for expressing the distribution characteristics of microcrack. The diagrams for the six directions were arranged in the magnitude of density(${\rho}$). These diagrams show an order of H2 < H1 < G2 < G1 < R2 < R1 from the related chart. Among six diagrams, the diagram for hardway 2(H2) occupies the lowermost region on the left. On the contrary, the diagram for rift 1(R1) occupies the uppermost region on the right. Curve patterns of the two diagrams change from uniform to exponential distribution type in accordance with the increased density. The overall distribution characteristics of the diagrams were well evidenced from the magnitude of the exponent(${\lambda}$) and length of line oa related to the exponential straight line. The magnitude of exponent governing the values of slope(${\theta}$) is inversely proportional to the values of microcrack parameters such as number(N), length(L) and density. On the contrary, length of line oa is directly proportional to the values of the above three parameters. Above microcrack parameters related to the order of arrangement of diagrams show an order of hardway(H1 + H2) < grain(G1 + G2) < rift(R1 + R2). The distribution characteristics of progressive variation are found among the six diagrams. The order of arrangement of the diagrams indicates a relative magnitude of the rock cleavage. Meanwhile, the parameters such as slope, exponent, density and length of line oa were arranged in an order of H2 < H1 < G2 < G1 < R2 < R1. The variation curves of a smooth quadratic function are shown from the related chart. From the correlation chart between density and the above parameters, a common regularity following power-law correlation function was derived. Finally, the analysis for the rock cleavage was conducted through the combination between the diagram and microcrack parameter. This type of combination contribute to the progressivity in evaluation for the rock cleavage.

Runup Characteristics with the Variations of Wave Spectral Shape (파랑 스펙트럼 형상에 따른 처오름 특성)

  • Park, Seung Min;Yoon, Jong Tae;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2014
  • Recently the large-height swell-like waves generated in the eastern coast of South Korea have been observed frequently. The characteristics of the runup and overtopping of the large-height swell-like waves formed in deep water and attack the coast, causing damages to both lives and facilities have been studied. The correlation between spectral shape parameters and significant wave height has been investigated by analyzing long term wave spectrum data. Numerical runup experiments using MIKE21 BW Module were performed with $Q_p$, additional shape parameter, and identified the variations and characteristics of runup heights with respect to the variations of spectral shape.

A generalized likelihood ratio chart for monitoring type I right-censored Weibull lifetimes (제1형 우측중도절단된 와이블 수명자료를 모니터링하는 GLR 관리도)

  • Han, Sung Won;Lee, Jaeheon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.647-663
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    • 2017
  • Weibull distribution is a popular distribution for modeling lifetimes because it reflects the characteristics of failure adequately and it models either increasing or decreasing failure rates simply. It is a standard method of the lifetimes test to wait until all samples failed; however, censoring can occur due to some realistic limitations. In this paper, we propose a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) chart to monitor changes in the scale parameter for type I right-censored Weibull lifetime data. We also compare the performance of the proposed GLR chart with two CUSUM charts proposed earlier using average run length (ARL). Simulation results show that the Weibull GLR chart is effective to detect a wide range of shift sizes when the shape parameter and sample size are large and the censoring rate is not too high.

Long-term Energy Demand Forecast in Korea Using Functional Principal Component Analysis (함수 주성분 분석을 이용한 한국의 장기 에너지 수요예측)

  • Choi, Yongok;Yang, Hyunjin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.437-465
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we propose a new method to forecast long-term energy demand in Korea. Based on Chang et al. (2016), which models the time varying long-run relationship between electricity demand and GDP with a function coefficient panel model, we design several schemes to retain objectivity of the forecasting model. First, we select the bandwidth parameters for the income coefficient based on the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Second, we extend the income coefficient using the functional principal component analysis method. Third, we proposed a method to reflect the elasticity change patterns inherent in Korea. In the empirical analysis part, we forecasts the long-term energy demand in Korea using the proposed method to show that the proposed method generates more stable long term forecasts than the existing methods.

The Effects of Mass-size Relationship for Snow on the Simulated Surface Precipitation (눈송이의 크기와 질량 관계가 지표 강수 모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2020
  • This study presented the effects of the assumed mass-size relationship for snow on the simulated surface precipitation by using cloud microphysics parameterizations in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The selected cloud microphysics parameterizations are WRF Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) in the WRF model. We replaced the mass-size relationship for snow in WDM6 and WSM6 with Thompson's mass-size relationship retrieved from measurement data. The sensitivity of the modified WDM6 and WSM6 was tested for the idealized 2-dimensional squall line and winter precipitation system over the Korean peninsula, respectively. The modified WDM6 and WSM6 resulted in the increase of graupel/rain mixing ratios and the decrease of snow mixing ratio in the low atmosphere. The changes of hydrometeor mixing ratio and surface precipitation could be due to the collision-coalescence process between raindrops and snow and the graupel melting process.