• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.791-803
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• 2016

Recently, frequency of extreme rainfall events in South Korea has been substantially increased due to the enhanced climate variability. Korea is prone to flooding due to being surrounded by mountains, along with high rainfall intensity during a short period. In the past three decades, an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events has been observed due to enhanced climate variability and climate change. This study aimed to analyze extreme rainfalls informed by their frequency of occurrences using a long-term rainfall data. In this respect, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (Poisson-GPD) based rainfall frequency method which allows us to simultaneously explore changes in the amount and exceedance probability of the extreme rainfall events defined by different thresholds. Additionally, this study utilized a Bayesian approach to better estimate both parameters and their uncertainties. We also investigated the synoptic patterns associated with the extreme events considered in this study. The results showed that the Poisson-GPD based design rainfalls were rather larger than those of based on the Gumbel distribution. It seems that the Poisson-GPD model offers a more reasonable explanation in the context of flood safety issue, by explicitly considering the changes in the frequency. Also, this study confirmed that low and high pressure system in the East China Sea and the central North Pacific, respectively, plays crucial roles in the development of the extreme rainfall in South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.237-246
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• 2008

The cross-sections of continuous multi-span beams sometimes suddenly increase, or become stepped, at the interior supports of continuous beams to resist high negative moments. The three-dimensional finite-element program ABAQUS (2006) was used to analytically investigate the inelastic lateral-torsional buckling behavior of stepped beams subjected to pure bending moment and resulted in the development of design equations. The flanges of the smaller cross-section were fixed at 30.48 by 2.54 cm, whereas the width and/or thickness of the flanges of the larger cross-section varied. The web thickness and height of beam was kept at 1.65 cm and 88.9 cm, respectively. The ratios of the flange thickness, flange width, and stepped length of beams are considered analytical parameters. Two groups of 27 cases and 35 cases, respectively, were analyzed for double and single stepped beams. The combined effects of residual stresses and geometrical imperfection on inelastic lateral-torsional buckling of beams are considered. First, the distributions of residual stress of the cross-section is same as shown in Pi, etc (1995), and the initial geometric imperfection of the beam is set by central displacement equal to 0.1% of the unbraced length of beam. The new proposed equations definitely improve current design methods for the inelastic LTB problem and increase efficiency in building and bridge design. The proposed solutions can be easily used to develop new design equation for inelastic LTB resistance of stepped beams subjected to general loading condition such as a concentrated load, a series of concentrated loads or uniformly distributed load.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.21-30
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• 2017

This study analyzed the ground characteristics region by designating 3 research areas, Anrim-dong in Chungju City, Busa-dong in Daejeon Metropolitan City and Sinan-dong in Andong City out of the areas subject to concentrated management to prepare for sediment disaster in downtown areas. The correlation between ground characteristics were observed by using characteristics (crown density, root cohesion, rainfall characteristics, soil characteristics) and the risk areas were predicted through sediment disaster prediction modeling. Landslide MAPping (LSMAP), Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) and Landslide Hazard MAP (LHMAP) were used for the comparative analysis of the hazard prediction model for sediment disaster. As a result of predicting the sediment disaster danger, in case of SINMAP which was generally used, excessive range was predicted as a hazardous area and in case of the Korea Forest Service's landslide hazard map (LHMAP), the smallest prediction area was assessed. LSMAP predicted a medium range of SINMAP and LHMAP as hazardous area. The difference of the prediction results is that the analysis parameters of LSMAP is more diverse and engineering than two comparative models, and it is found that more precise prediction is possible.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.51-62
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• 2015

It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.29 no.12
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• pp.11-24
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• 2013

This study presents a design method for typical rainfall-induced landslide considering in-situ matric suction. Actual landslide data are used to validate the proposed method. The soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) and unsaturated permeability are experimentally determined to estimate hydraulic properties of testing site. The field measurement of matric suction is carried out to monitor in-situ matric suction in a natural slope subjected to rainfall infiltration, which is incorporated in the landslide analysis. The wetting band depth and safety factor of the slope are assessed to clarify the effect of domestic rainfall pattern. Especially, the effect of antecedent rainfall on the slope stability is investigated and discussed in terms of wetting band depth using parametric study. It is found from the result of this study that proposed design method can consider the characteristic of unsaturated soil and effect of antecedent rainfall. The location of the scarp zone is fairly well predicted by proposed design method. Moreover, heavy rainfall, concentrated in the backward part with time, causes the lowest safety factor of the slope. These results demonstrate that decrease in matric suction due to antecedent rainfall may trigger slope instability. After the antecedent rainfall, additional rainfall may cause the slope failure due to increasing wetting band depth.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1119-1122
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• 2006

Aeration by using diffusers usually requires approximately 50~90% of the total electricity needed to operate WWTP (WasteWater Treatment Plant)s. Accurate evaluation of the oxygen transfer efficiency for an aeration system, and recommendation of a better alternative may help saving WWTP operational costs. Appropriate techniques and methods to achieve this purpose have not been introduced in Korea. In this study, in-process analysis was performed for a coarse bubble aeration system by the off-gas method to evaluate its applicability in Korea. To accomplish this analysis, an off-gas test, unsteady-state clean water test and steady-state off-gas column test was conducted and comparisons to other aeration systems were made. The ${\alpha}$ and the F estimated from the results of the unsteady-state clean water test and the steady-state off-gas column test were 0.61 and 0.90 respectively in a coarse bubble aeration system. The comparison of P.E tube diffusers laid out single spiral roll and ceramic dome diffusers laid out full floor coverage showed that the oxygen transfer efficiency of the coarse bubble aeration system was less than or similar to other aeration systems. But, airflow rates per unit area were 4~5 times greater than other aeration systems. In regards to the oxygen transfer efficiency for airflow rates per unit area, a retrofit to higher efficiency diffusers was urgently needed. This study showed proved that off-gas methods can apply to evaluate diffuser performances to estimate operating factors and to compare other aeration systems in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.563-574
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• 2006

The objective of this study is to determine the effect of the loading size on displacements of stiffened plates with open ribs using the orthotropic rigidity ratio as the parameter. To analyze the displacement behavior of stiffened plates according to the loading size, a concentrated load and three types of uniform distributed loads were applied on the rib at the center of some plates. The results of the analysis of various stiffened plates show that the central displacement ratio of the distributed load to the concentrated load increased according to the decrease in the loading size, and that the ratio can be expressed as a function of the rigidity ratio for each rib space. The maximum displacement of the stiffened plate subjected to the distributed load did not appear at the center of the plate due to the local behavior, and the increasing ratio of the maximum displacement to the central displacement can be expressed as a function of the rigidity ratio for each rib space. Orthotropic plate analysis can achieve more accurate results using the proposed functions, and the application of the functions to examples of a different aspect ratio and support condition shows good accuracy. Therefore, using the functions proposed in this study, the central and maximum displacements can easily be achieved in the orthotropic plate analysis of stiffened plates subjected to the distributed load.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.365-374
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• 2009

Probability plotting positions are used for the graphical display of annual maximum rainfall or flood series and the estimation of exceedance probability of those values. In addition, plotting positions allow a visual examination of the fitness of probability distribution provided by frequency analysis for a given data. Therefore, the graphical approach using plotting position has been applied to many fields of hydrology and water resources planning. In this study, the plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution is derived by using the order statistics and the probability weight moment of the Gumbel distribution for various sample sizes. And then, the parameters of plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution are estimated by using genetic algorithm. The appropriate plotting position formulas for the Gumbel distribution are examined by the comparison of root mean square errors and biases between theoretical reduced Gumbel variates and those calculated from derived and existing plotting position formulas. As the results, Gringorten's plotting position formula has the smaller root mean square errors and biases than any other formulas.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.8
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• pp.807-823
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• 2008

This paper presents a technique for estimating discharge rating curve parameters. In typical practical applications, the original non-linear rating curve is transformed into a simple linear regression model by log-transforming the measurement without examining the effect of log transformation. The model of pseudo-likelihood estimation is developed in this study to deal with heteroscedasticity of residuals in the original non-linear model. The parameters of rating curves and variance functions of errors are simultaneously estimated by the pseudo-likelihood estimation(P-LE) method. Simulated annealing, a global optimization technique, is adapted to minimize the log likelihood of the weighted residuals. The P-LE model was then applied to a hypothetical site where stage-discharge data were generated by incorporating various errors. Results of the P-LE model show reduced error values and narrower confidence intervals than those of the common log-transform linear least squares(LT-LR) model. Also, the limit of water levels for segmentation of discharge rating curve is estimated in the process of P-LE using the Heaviside function. Finally, model performance of the conventional log-transformed linear regression and the developed model, P-LE are computed and compared. After statistical simulation, the developed method is then applied to the real data sets from 5 gauge stations in the Geum River basin. It can be suggested that this developed strategy is applied to real sites to successfully determine weights taking into account error distributions from the observed discharge data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.503-514
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• 2018

In recent, the hydrological regime of the Mekong river is changing drastically due to climate change and haphazard watershed development including dam construction. Information of hydrologic feature like streamflow of the Mekong river are required for water disaster prevention and sustainable water resources development in the river sharing countries. In this study, runoff simulations at the Kratie station of the lower Mekong river are performed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a physics-based hydrologic model, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), a data-driven deep learning algorithm. The SWAT model was set up based on globally-available database (topography: HydroSHED, landuse: GLCF-MODIS, soil: FAO-Soil map, rainfall: APHRODITE, etc) and then simulated daily discharge from 2003 to 2007. The LSTM was built using deep learning open-source library TensorFlow and the deep-layer neural networks of the LSTM were trained based merely on daily water level data of 10 upper stations of the Kratie during two periods: 2000~2002 and 2008~2014. Then, LSTM simulated daily discharge for 2003~2007 as in SWAT model. The simulation results show that Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of each model were calculated at 0.9(SWAT) and 0.99(LSTM), respectively. In order to simply simulate hydrological time series of ungauged large watersheds, data-driven model like the LSTM method is more applicable than the physics-based hydrological model having complexity due to various database pressure because it is able to memorize the preceding time series sequences and reflect them to prediction.