An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.21 no.4
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- pp.17-35
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- 2015
Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.
Since medical clients and the community they live in are expected to be center of future public health and medical care system, new service programs must be developed with patients focused on in line with widening public access of information and social participation. Patients- focused service shall mean the area- oriented provision of public health service. In this study, health officers working at public health centers, public health sub- centers and medical offices in Jeonbuk- do area were taken for population in order to investigate their attitudes toward and knowledge about the service area assigning system under the public health programs. Findings from the survey to 260 health officers, divided by general category, are as follows : Government officers at public health organizations appeared to have high grade of understanding to the service area assigning system and also great appreciation for the necessity of it. Regarding the timing for the system to be introduced, they support the gradual implementation and, as for the type of service to be provided, they preferred home nursing and treatment of chronic diseases. Highly positive responses were centered on the health classes under the health promotion projects, and as far as health projects for the old are concerned, services for home nursing, for the disabled and for home- alone people are favored most. On the other hand, budgeting, manpower and reorganization are rated as prerequisite to establishment of the service area assigning system. From the viewpoint of system side, the improvement of working conditions is rendered as most urgent, while the information system for establishing the service area assigning system is conceived far from satisfactory. Proper assignment of specialists was noted as mostly important to establish the delivery system for medical service through the service area assigning system by team. As merits of the service area assigning system, it is pointed out that, through the system, health clients can better be managed and the nursing quality will be improved thank to the enhanced specialization. It is also perceived that the district health service is not well prepared to respond to the increased and diversified needs of community people and, furthermore, service programs of health centers have not been fully developed. The most serious problem standing in the way to expansion of health projects is, it is noted, uniformity (formality) of the project. Based on the results of the survey which suggest time has ripen to introduce the service area assigning system, following strategies are proposed to anchor down the system as soon as possible: First, we should introduce the system gradually, starting from the area selected, and in consideration of area specialities, refraining from the hitherto stereotyped way of providing health service. Second, we should seek to properly assign the specialists and improve the working conditions of the assigned officers by securing sufficient budget, since it is a most urgent step to lay foundation for the service area assigning system. Third, best service program should be developed to meet the satisfaction of community people by responding to their needs and solidifying the management of medical clients. Fourth, wide scope of study should further be conducted in order to help this system take roots in the central living of community residents since pilot project on the experimental base attended by specialists only can not win popularity among the masses.
Forty- nine quarters from 24 lactating cows with chronic mastitis were selected. The cows were raised on dairy farms in Gongju, Jochiwon and Yeongi in Chungnam province, and Iksan in Jeonbuk province, Korea. The 49 quarters with bovine mastitis were divided into control (7 quarters) and experimental (42 quarters) groups. The experimental quarters were assigned to experimental group A (10 quarters, somatic cell count:
Background: Loss of cardiomyocytes in the myocardial infarction leads to regional contractile dysfunction, and necrotized cardiomyocytes in infracted ventricular tissues are progressively replaced by fibroblasts forming scar tissue. Although cardiomyoplasty, or implantation of ventricular assist device or artificial heart was tried in refractory heart failure, the cardiac transplantation was the only therapeutic modality because these other therapeutic strategies were not permanent. Cell transplantation is tried instead of cardiac transplantation, especially bone marrow is the most popular donated organ. But because bone marrow aspiration procedure is invasive and painful, and it had the fewer amounts of cellular population, the adipose tissue is recommended for harvesting of mesenchymal stem cells. Material and Method: After adipose tissues were extracted from abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue and intra-abdominal adipose tissue individually, the cellular components were obtained by same method. These cellular components were tried to transformation with the various titers of 5-azacytidine to descript the appropriate concentration of 5-azacytidine and possibility of transformation ability of adipose tissue. Group 1 is abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue and Group 2 is intra-abdominal adipose tissue-retroperitoneal adipose tissue and omentum. Cellular components were extracted by collagenase and
1. Introduction: Contrast to the offline purchasing environment, online store cannot offer the sense of touch or direct visual information of its product to the consumers. So the builder of the online shopping mall should provide more concrete and detailed product information(Kim 2008), and Alba (1997) also predicted that the quality of the offered information is determined by the post-purchase consumer satisfaction. In practice, many fashion and apparel online shopping malls offer the picture information with the product on the real person model to enhance the usefulness of product information. On the other virtual product experience has been suggested to the ways of overcoming the online consumers' limited perceptual capability (Jiang & Benbasat 2005). However, the adoption and the facilitation of the virtual reality tools requires high investment and technical specialty compared to the text/picture product information offerings (Shaffer 2006). This could make the entry barrier to the online shopping to the small retailers and sometimes it could be demanding high level of consumers' perceptual efforts. So the expensive technological solution could affects negatively to the consumer decision making processes. Nevertheless, most of the previous research on the online product information provision suggests the VR be the more effective tools. 2. Research Model and Hypothesis: Presented in
The dietary habit, health condition and the cognition concerning the health food have been surveyed with the help of the 151 old people living in In-Cheon and Seoul. In this study, the old are classified as an institution for the aged and the old in their own home. The preference and mental health condition influenced on dietary habits have been surveyed as wall. Their dietary habits such s three meals a day and a regular meal time have show) that they have generally good eating habits. Psychologically, the old in an institution for the aged think their health condition is not so good in comparison with the old in their own home. The old in their own home have good condition in that they can go up the stairs, exercise often and walk relatively well. Moreover, men's health condition is better than women. The old generally like meats(especially beef) and prefer sesame oil, perilla oil, soy been oil to Western oil. They like sweat flavor the most and hot, salty taste in order. Thier favorite cooking method is a pot stew, soup and season. The difference between dietary habit and mental health based on an academic career, an allowance and a residential condition shows that the old who live alon have relatively terrible eating habit and the more learned, the better. The more pocket money they have, the better dietary habits they have. The old feel glommy in general and the old in an institution are more depressed and it is statistically significant.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the dietary habits, behaviors, and food consumption frequency according to gender and obesity level among middle school students in the Jeonju area. Subjects for the questionnaire were 450 middle school students (male 255, female 195) and were classified as either obese students (n=150 or non-obese students (n=299) by the obesity assessment method. The results were analyzed with SAS program (Version 9.1), and were as follows. 1. Dietary behaviors were significantly different in the rate of 'Skipping breakfast (p<0.05)', 'Duration of meal time (min) (p<0.05)' and 'Unbalanced diet (p<0.01)' between males and females. Dietary habits and behaviors also differed significantly for the rate of ‘Taste preferences (p<0.05)’, and 'Unbalanced diet (p<0.01)' between obese students and non-obese students. 2. Food consumption frequency per week was as follows. First, males were significantly higher than females in 'Instant noodle (p<0.05)', 'Milk (p<0.01)', and 'Soda pop (p<0.01)'; on the other hand females were significantly higher than males in 'Chocolate, Candy (p<0.01)'. Second, non-obese students were significantly higher than obese students in 'Instant noodle (p<0.05)', 'Hamburger, Pizza (p<0.05)', and 'Chocolate, Candy (p<001)'. Especially, non-obese male students were higher in 'Instant noodle (p<0.05)' and 'Hamburger, Pizza (p<0.05)'; non-obese female students were higher in 'Chocolate, Candy (p<0.01)'. In conclusion, an action program is needed to encourage healthful dietary behaviors, increased physical activity, and forming good lifelong habits.
Along with the development of scientific technologies, health care has been growing remarkably, and as the social life quality improves with increasing interest in health, the demand for medical service is rapidly increasing. However, medical accident and medical dispute also are rapidly increasing due to various factors such as, increasing sense of people's right, lack of understanding in the nature of medical practice, over expectation on medical technique, commercialize medical supply system, moral degeneracy and unawareness of medical jurisprudence by doctors, widespread trend of mutual distrust, and lack of systematized device for solution of medical dispute. This study analysed 30 cases of civil suit in the year between 1994 to 2004, which were selected among the medical dispute cases in dental field with the judgement collected from organizations related to dentistry and department of oral medicine, Yonsei university dental hospital. The following results were drawn from the analyses: 1. The distribution of year showed rapid increase of medical dispute after the year 2000. 2. In the types of medical dispute, suit associated with tooth extraction took 36.7% of all. 3. As for the cause of medical dispute, uncomfortable feeling and dissatisfaction with the treatment showed 36.7%, death and permanent damage showed 16.7% each. 4. Winning the suit, compulsory mediation and recommendation for settlement took 60.0% of judgement result for the plaintiff. 5. For the type of medical organization in relation to medical dispute, 60.0% was found to be the private dental clinics, and 30.0% was university dental hospitals. 6. For the level of trial, dispute that progressed above 2 or 3 trials was of 30.0%. 7. For the amount of claim for damage, the claim amounting between 50 million to 100 million won was of 36.7%, and that of more than 100 million won was 13.3%, and in case of the judgement amount, the amount ranging from 10 million to 30 million won was of 40.0%, and that of more than 100 million won was of 6.7%. 8. For the number of dentist involved in the suit, 26.7% was of 2 or more dentists. 9. For the amount of time spent until the judgement, 46.7% took 11 to 20 months, and 36.7% took 21 to 30 months. 10. For medical malpractice, 46.7% was judged to be guilty, and 70% of the cases had undergone medical judgement or verification of the case by specialists during the process of the suit. 11. In the lost cases of doctors(18 cases), 72.2% was due to violence of carefulness in practice and 16.7% was due to missing of explanation to patient. Medical disputes occurring in the field of dentistry are usually of relatively less risky cases. Hence, the importance of explanation to patient is emphasized, and since the levels of patient satisfaction are subjective, improvement of the relationship between the patient and the dentist and recovery of autonomy within the group dentist are essential in addition to the reduction of technical malpractice. Moreover, management measure against the medical dispute should be set up through complement of the current doctors and hospitals medical malpractice insurance which is being conducted irrationally, and establishment of system in which education as well as consultation for medical disputes lead by the group of dental clinicians and academic scholars are accessible.
Background: Clinical outcomes of esophageal cancer have not been satisfactory in spite of the development of surgical skills and protocols of adjuvant therapy. We analyzed the results of corrective surgical patients for esophageal cancer from January 1992 to July 2002. Material and Method: Among 129 patients with esophageal cancer, this study was performed in 68 patients who received corrective surgery. The ratio of sex was 59 : 9 (male : female) and mean age was
The purpose of this paper was to review the results of the subjective well-being(swb) studies performed by Hahn and coworkers in Korean culture. As the correlates of swb, we dealt with demographic/individual difference variables, intrapersonal variables, interpersonal process variables, and Korean cultural variables. We proposed that the components of swb were consisted of quality of life(cognitive swb) and overall happy feelings about one's own life(emotional swb). It was also assumed that a measure of total swb could be calculated by summated mean of cognitive swb and emotional swb measures. The data of the swb studies were analyzed and interpreted according to the above three measures of swb. The results of a nationwide survey(Hahn, 2004) from age of 19 to 75 years ald(n=2,230) showed significant simple correlation coefficients between the following demographic/individual difference variables and swb: Gender difference in swb was found(total swb r=.08, p<.001; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.001; overall emotional swb r=.05, p<.05). Men were happier than women in terms of all three measures of swb. It was also found that women appeared to experience greater positive and negative emotions. Correlation between age and emotional swb(r=.09, p<.001) was significant, but life satisfaction was not significant(r=.04, n.s). Correlations between economic status and swb were also significant(total swb r =.23, p<.001; life satisfaction r=.15 p<.001; overall emotional swb r=.15, p<.001l). Although existence of father was negatively related to emotional swb(r=-.05, p<.05), the existence of mother was not related to any of swb measures. Similarly existence of brothers was related positively to overall emotional swb, but existence of sisters was not. Though existence of son was not related to swb, daughter contributed negatively to swb(total swb -.12, p<.01; life satisfaction -.09, p<.05; emotional swb r=-.12, p<.01). We assumed that family member-in-Iaw also contributed to swb because the extended dose social networks were important in Korean culture. The results showed that the following family member-in-law variables were related to swb: Parents-in-law(total swb r=.11, p<.01; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.01; emotional swb r=.10, p<.01), father-in-law(total swb r=.11, p<.01; life satisfaction r=.11, p<.01; emotional swb r=.06, n.s). The result suggested that especially father-in-law contributed to swb through financial and social support. Correlations between emotional experiences in everyday life and swb were also presented. The range of correlation coefficients between the positive emotion measures and swb were r=.30~.48(p<.001) when the above two measures obtained at same time. But the range decreased to r=.19~32(p<.001) when the swb measure was obtained 9 month later longitudinally. Intercorrelations between positive emotional experience; and life satisfaction were r=.37~58(p<.001) when two measures were obtained at same time. We also examined the effects of the intrapersonal cognitive responses to the most stressful life event upon swb. The results of nationwide survey(n=1,021) showed that self-disclosure(total swb r=.09, p<.010; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.01; emotional swb r=.07, p<.01), rumination(total swb r=-.17, p<.001), thought avoidance(total swb r=.12, p<.001; life satisfaction r=-.08; emotional swb r=-.12, p<.001) and suppression(total swb r=-.13, p<.001; life satisfaction r=-.08, p<.05: emotional swb r=-.13, p<.001) contributed to swb. It was also suggested that mismatch between self-guide and regulatory focus contributed negatively to emotional swb. It was also found that social comparison motives and fulfillment of the motives contributed to swb. The results of a survey research(n=363 college students) revealed that the higher the general social comparison motive, the lower the swb(total swb r=-.15, P<.01: life satisfaction r=-.17. p<.01; emotional swb r=-.10, p<.05). It was also found that satisfaction level of self-evalution motive contributed positively to swb(total swb r=-.14. p<.01: life satisfaction r=-.12, p<.05; emotional swb r=.15, p<.001). Both of self-improvement motive(r=.13, p<.05) and satisfaction level of self-improvement motive(r=.12, p<.05) contributed positively to emotional swb, respectively. The above results suggested that swb was depended upon the interaction effect of social comparison motive; and level of fulfillment of the motives. We also reported the significant multiple predictors of swb in a sample of age from 60years to 89years olds. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that the significant multiple predictors of swb were past illness(β=.174, p<.001), economic status(β=.418, p<.001), marital satisfaction(β=.0841, p<.001), satisfaction of offsprins(β=.065, p<.01), expectation level of social support from offsprings(β=-.049, p<.001), and negative emotions(β=-.454. p<.001) among 16 social psychological factors. It was also found that swb was an important multiple predictors of physical health. This finding was replicated in a longitudinal study. Both of positive and negative emotional experiences were significant multiple predictors of physical health one year later. The results of the discriminant analysis showed both of total swb and positive emotional experiences contributed to discriminate the happy and healthy olds from unhappy and unhealthy olds. We paper also examined the effects of the nonnative social behaviors upon swb in Korean culture. The main hypotheses of the study(Hahn, 2006, in press) was that the important nonnative behaviors would influence on swb through both of the mediation processes of adjustment to social relationships and psychological stress. The survey data were collected from 2,129 adults age of 19 to 75, from 7 regional areas in Korea. The results of the study revealed that almost all of correlation coefficients between 15 normative social behaviors and the above three criteria w-ere significant. The fitness test results of the covariance structural equation model showed that all of the fitness indices were satisfactory (GFI=.974, AGFI=.909, NNFI=.922, NFI=.973, CFI=.974. RMR=.049, RMSEA=.073). The results of the analysis revealed that the following five path coeffi6ents from behaviors to social adjustment were significant; behavior tor family and family members(t=5.87, p<.001), courteous behavior(t=4.39, p<.001), faithful behavior (t=2.15. p<.05). collectivistic behavior(t=8.31, p<.001). Seven path coefficients from the normative behaviors to psychological stress were significant; behavior for family and family members (t=-4.63, p<.001), faithful behavior(t=-3.86, p<.001). suppression of emotional expression(t=3.99, p<.001), trustworthy and dependable behavior(t=-2.21, p<.05), collectivistic behavior(t=3.72, p<.001), effortful and diligent behavior(t=2.94, p<.001), husbandry and saving behavior(t=3.40, p<.001). The above results suggested that four normative behaviors among seven behaviors contributed negatively to psychological stress in current Korean society. The results abo confirmed the hypothesized paths from social adjustment (t=10.40, p<.001) to swb and from psychological stress(t=-19.74, p<.001) to swb. The important results of the study were discussed in terms of the Confucian traditions and recent social changes in Korean culture. Finally limitations of this review paper were discussed and the suggestions for the future study were also proposed.
, research model suggests VR effect could be moderated by the product types by the usage situations. Product types could be defined as the portable product and installed product, and the information offering type as still picture of the product, picture of the product with the real-person model and VR. 3. Methods and Results: 3.1. Experimental design and measured variables We designed the 2(product types) X 3(product information types) experimental setting and measured dependent variables such as information usefulness, attitude toward the shopping mall, overall product quality, purchase intention and the revisiting intention. In the case of information usefulness and attitude toward the shopping mall were measured by multi-item scale. As a result of reliability test, Cronbach's Alpha value of each variable shows more than 0.6. Thus, we ensured that the internal consistency of items. 3.2. Manipulation check The main concern of this study is to verify the moderate effect by the product type of usage situation. indicates that our experimental manipulation of the moderate effect of the product type was successful. 3.3. Results As
indicates, there was a significant main effect on the only one dependent variable(attitude toward the shopping mall) by the information types. As predicted, VR has highest mean value compared to other information types. Thus, H1 was partially supported. However, main effect by the product types was not found. To evaluate H2 and H3, a two-way ANOVA was conducted. As
indicates, there exist the interaction effects on the three dependent variables(information usefulness, overall product quality and purchase intention) by the information types and the product types. As predicted, picture of the product with the real-person model has highest mean among the information types in the case of portable product. On the other hand, VR has highest mean among the information types in the case of installed product. Thus, H2 and H3 was supported. 4. Implications: The present study found the moderate effect by the product type of usage situation. Based on the findings the following managerial implications are asserted. First, it was found that information types are affect only the attitude toward the shopping mall. The meaning of this finding is that VR effects are not enough to understand the product itself. Therefore, we must consider when and how to use this VR tools. Second, it was found that there exist the interaction effects on the information usefulness, overall product quality and purchase intention. This finding suggests that consideration of usage situation helps consumer's understanding of product and promotes their purchase intention. In conclusion, not only product attributes but also product usage situations must be fully considered by the online retailers when they want to meet the needs of consumers.
The study of food habit and degree of depression in nursing home and privite home living elderly
(시설노인과 재가노인의 식습관과 정신건강 상태에 관한 실태조사)
A Comparison of Dietary Behaviors According to Gender and Obesity Status of Middle School Students in Jeonju
(전주지역 중학생의 성별 및 비만판정에 따른 식행동 비교 연구)
The Jurisdictional Precedent Analysis of Medical Dispute in Dental Field
(치과임상영역에서 발생된 의료분쟁의 판례분석)
Clinical Outcomes of Corrective Surgical Treatment for Esophageal Cancer
(식도암의 외과적 근치 절제술에 대한 임상적 고찰)
Correlates of Subjective Well-being in Korean Culture
(한국문화에서 주관안녕에 영향을 미치는 사회심리 요인들)
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