• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 정량화

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Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.

A Study on the Risk Evaluation of Construction Management Based on Risk Identification (위험도 기반 건설경영 리스크 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Gun;Yeo, Sang-Ku;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2009
  • Construction industry is a complex industry which should be invested with plenty capital, manpower and resources. Investment factors and inner and outer environmental factors should be managed systemically in terms with risk factors possible to occur. It maximizes the profit to establish construction management by managing risk systemically. While previous studies were executed with risk related to some special progress lively, studies about risk in managing construction company leave much to be desired. Therefore, this study examined risk in the whole construction management, showed the checklist and deduced the quantitative factors through questionnaire analysis from specialists. Also, priority and grade of construction management factors were evaluated by analyzing weight of construction risk factors.

Risk Analysis of Alcohol Consumption During Underwater Activity Using the Risk Assessment and Analysis Method (리스크 평가 및 분석 기법을 활용한 알코올 섭취에 따른 수중활동 시 리스크 분석)

  • SEO, Sang-Woo;KANG, Shin-Beum;KANG, Sin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2019
  • This study was designed to investigate the physiological response of humans to alcohol during underwater activity and to complete related risk analysis. After comparing human responses to alcohol during underwater activity, we analyzed physiological changes and risk level using a new risk analysis method developed in this study, 'Risk Assessment and Analysis (RAA)'. RAA is a modified method based on an internal control frame work. It has 3 steps, the first of which is to analyze risk correlation. The second step is to quantify risk and build a risk database. The last step is to analyze the diagramed risk map. Using RAA, the risk levels of alcohol use underwater were calculated and diagramed. The diagramed risk map was then used to analyze the difference between risk levels underwater before and after alcohol use. As a result, it was found that risk level underwater increased after alcohol use. This study shows alcohol use increases the ratio of high risk groups during underwater activity. It also indicates that risk levels can be quantified according to the likelihood and impairment scale, which can potentially help in identifying high risk groups for intensive management underwater.

Development of a Risk Management Procedure Model for the Construction Project Using Construction Risk Management System (CRMS를 활용한 건설공사의 리스크관리 절차모형 개발)

  • Kim, Chang Hak;Kang, Leen Seok;Park, Hong Tae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.423-432
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    • 2010
  • This study suggested CRMS (construction risk management system) which is a new risk analysis model after analyzing existing risk management process for to guarantee a successful performance at the construction planning and work phase. CRMS is risk management procedures in order that the contractor identify, analyze and administrate the risk during performing construction project. This model may give much help to quantify and be ready the right managing methods about identified risk by the contractor. Especially, the most important and difficult things of all risk management may be to identify risk in the project. This study make more focusing on the developing a procedure that can identify risk more easily in the construction project. The risk is divided into global risk and local risk of a project. Also, this study suggests methods which are using the RBS (risk breakdown structure) related with WBS. This result will be useful as basic materials for developing computerizing system for risk management.

A Risk Management Method Using Fuzzy Theory for Early Construction Stage (퍼지이론을 이용한 초기 건설공사의 리스크 관리 방법)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2004
  • This study presents a risk management methodology using fuzzy theory for early construction stage and is focused on risk identification and risk analysis. This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities clearly construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The risk analysis method presented in this study is based on the RBS that has two levels such as upper level and lower level. The risk exposure of lower level risk factors is assessed by fuzzy inference. The weight of risks is estimated by fuzzy measure. Then, the estimated risk exposures and weights are aggregated to assess the risk exposure of upper level risks by Choquet fuzzy integral. The risk exposure of upper level risks determine the priority of risk factors in view of risk management. This study performs case study to validate the proposed method. The result of case study shows that the methodology suggested in this thesis would be utilized well in evaluating risk exposure.

Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Plant Construction Project (플랜트 건설 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Nam, Kyung-Yong;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2019
  • Due to the increasing demand for and complexity of plant construction projects, unpredictable risk factors are on the consequent increase. For that reason, the quantitative risk analysis is being called for, in order for the development of a risk assessment model using risk indicators for the plant construction projects. This study used the claim payout data collected at a global insurance company to reflect the actual financial losses in plant construction projects as dependent variables in the risk assessment model. In terms of independent variables, the geographic information, i. e., landform, and the construction information including test-run, schedule rate, total cost and duration are adopted. In addition, this study suggests that the regression model containing such independent variables that are statistically significant can be applied to as a foundational guideline for the plant construction project risk analysis during the phase of construction and commissioning.

A Risk Quantification Study for Accident Causes on Building Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Forecast Concept (확률론적 추정 개념을 적용한 건설 공사 현장의 사고원인별 리스크 정량화 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Taehui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2017
  • Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

A Feasibility Study on Small-sized Rental Residential Building Project through Risk Management (리스크 관리를 통한 프로젝트 타당성 검토방안에 대한 연구 -소규모 임대주택을 대상으로-)

  • Kim Sang-Chul;Park Chan-Jeong;Yoon Jun-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.3 s.19
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2004
  • Planning phase became very important because the construction market in Korea is often unpredictable. The existing feasibility analysis cannot fulfill its purpose in development projects because they are based on intuitive approach rather than systematic approach. The purpose of this study is to make a prototype of feasibility model to be a good investment. To build the model, first, risk factors which can be occurred in project had to be selected. Risk factors were divided into several groups in basis of characteristical risk. Economical risk factors were input on financial analysis. Then, to catch the relevance and influence of all risk factors, influence diagram and decision tree were made. Finally, sensitivity analysis was activated, then what the critical factors were, and how those factors could be solved. Through these procedures, the feasibility model that was made in this study could include both quantitative and qualitative factors. This model is expected to be used as a guide of feasibility analysis including all risk factors and is to serve systematic frame in planning and feasibility stage.

벤처캐피탈의 투자 위험 관리와 성과와의 관계

  • Kim, Eun-Seop;Bae, Tae-Jun;Han, Jeong-Hwa
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 벤처캐피탈의 투자심사단계 및 투자 이후 사후관리단계에서의 리스크 관리·활용과 투자성과 사이의 관계를 살펴보았다. 즉, 투자심사단계에서는 투자대상기업을 발굴한 벤처캐피탈의 리스크 분석 및 대응방안의 활용수준과 투자성과와의 관계를 규명하였고, 사후관리단계에서는 리스크 관리를 위한 모니터링 활동과 투자성과와의 관계를 규명하였다. 본 연구에서는, 첫째, 투자심사 단계에서의 경영리스크 및 재무·법률 리스크 분석 및 활용 수준이 정량적인 투자성과, 특히, 특허 등록수에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 벤처캐피탈의 주요 역할인 투자 이후의 모니터링에 대하여는, 주관적 투자 만족도에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통하여 투자대상기업을 발굴하여 리스크 관리 중심으로 투자를 심사·집행하고, 투자 이후 리스크 관리 중심으로 투자기업의 가치를 증대하기 위하여는 벤처캐피탈리스트의 역할이 특히 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 투자기업이 보유한 자원·역량에 한계가 있다는 점을 고려할 때, 벤처캐피탈의 역량이 투자기업에 지원되는 것은 해당 기업이 지속적으로 성장하기 위한 바탕이 될 것이다.

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Effects of the ANP Models on the Comparison Indicators of Electric Power Systems (ANP 모델이 전력 시스템의 비교 지표에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim Seong-Ho;Kim Kil-Yoo;Kim Tae-Woon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.371-376
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    • 2006
  • 서로 갈등적인 관계에 있는 다중 기준 하에서 다양한 국가 전력 시스템을 정량적으로 비교하는 데에는 전력 시스템의 비교 지표가 필요하다. 이러한 비교 지표를 산출하기 위하여 해석적 망형 과정(Analytic Network Process; ANP) 모델 가운데 상호 의존도 수중이 낮은 되먹임 모델 및 상호 의존도가 없는 독립성 모델이 개발되었다. 이러한 ANP 모델은 구성요소로 교점들(nodes)과 상호작용 관계를 표현하는 가지들(arcs)을 포함하고 있다. 의사결정 목표 교점에는 세 가지 유형의 리스크 성향이 포함되었다. 이러한 리스크 성향은 원자력 발전소 같은 위험 설비에 대한 전문가(그룹)의 리스크 성향이며, 더 구체적으로 말하면, 리스크 감수 성향, 리스크 혐오 성향, 리스크 중립 성향 등이다. 여기서 수행된 연구의 주요 목적은 ANP 모델을 구성하는 교점들 가운데 하나인 평가 기준 교점에서의 변화가 전력 시스템의 비교 지표에 미치는 영향을 해석하려는 것이다. 이러한 모델 변이가 비교 지표에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위한 사례 연구에서 각 발전원의 특성을 비교할 평가 기준은 기준 사례와 비교 사례 각각에 대하여 상이하게 선정되었다: 기준 사례의 경우에는 보건성을 대표하는 생명 단축 [yr/TWh], 환경성을 대표하는 지구 온난화 [$g\;CO_{2}-eq./kWh$], 사회성을 대표하는 지속가능 정도[-], 경제성을 대표하는 발전 단가 [\/kWh] 등이 선정되었다; 반면에, 비교 사례의 경우에서는 보건성을 대표하는 사고 사망 [death/GWh]만이 다르고 나머지는 동일하게 선정되었다. 이러한 보건성을 대표하는 생명 단축 또는 사고 사망의 선정은 다음과 같은 비교 지표에 영향을 미친다는 것이 발견되었다: (1) 되먹임 모델에서는 성향 가중치 및 기준 등급에 영향을 준다. (2) 되먹임 모델과 독립성 모델에서는 시스템 등급에 영향을 준다. 향후에는 더욱 더 다양한 상호의존 모델들이 정량화될 필요성이 있다고 본다.

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