• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.113-121
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• 2010

Since the cut-down of the purchasing price of the feed in tariff(FIT) in 2008, the numbers of photovoltaic projects get decreased, contrary to investment expansion policy of government on renewable energy. The root cause of the decrease is the irrationality of the current purchasing price structure of FIT as well as the adversity of fund raising due to the global financial crisis. This study proposes the FIT calculating model (Cost & Benefit Risk Based Purchase Price Process : CBRP3) reflecting the fluctuation of cost and benefit risks. The first step is to establish the photovoltaic generation alternatives, and to calculate each distribution data of the investment and the power generation quantity. The FIT for each alternative is, then, assessed through simulations. Finally the proposed FIT scheme is compared to the present FIT scheme and future study subjects are derived.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.8
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• pp.41-48
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• 2009

As enactment and enforcement of capital markets integration law, investment banks are going to be appeared in our financial market and be able to provide payment services. To provide these kinds of services, investment banks need to be participated in the financial network. As the financial network enormously affect the economy, the operation of the network will require a variety of risk managements. In this paper we define operational risk management criteria for the financial network such as security, in-time response, economical efficiency and stability to be required for the healthy economy and propose the configuration of the financial network system based on virtual private networks for investment banks to provide payment services. Finally we analyze that the proposed VPN configuration for financial networks has high security and in-time response with the cost and operation effective.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.91-98
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• 2023

Since risks occurring in construction projects can have a significant impact on schedules and costs, there have been many studies on this topic. However, risk analysis is often limited to only certain construction situations,and experience-dependent decision-making is therefore mainly performed. Data-based analyses have only been partially applied to safety and contract documents. Therefore, in this study, cluster analysis and a Word2Vec algorithm were applied to formal documents that contain important elements for contractors or clients. An initial classification of document content into six types was performed through cluster analysis, and 157 occurrence types were subdivided through application of the Word2Vec algorithm. The derived terms were re-classified into five categories and reviewed as to whether the terms could develop into potential construction risk factors. Identifying potential construction risk factors will be helpful as basic data for process management in the construction industry.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.453-467
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• 2016

Overall risks that can occur in a shield TBM tunnelling are studied in this paper. Both the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction and their causes are identified, and the causal relationship between causes and events is obtained in a systematic way. Risk impact analysis is performed for the potential risk events and ways to mitigate the risks are summarized. Literature surveys as well as interviews with experts were made for this purpose. The potential risk events are classified into eight categories: cuttability reduction, collapse of a tunnel face, ground surface settlement and upheaval, spurts of slurry on the ground, incapability of mucking and excavation, and water leakage. The causes of these risks are categorized into three areas: geological, design and construction management factors. Bayesian Networks (BN) were established to systematically assess a causal relationship between causes and events. The risk impact analysis was performed to evaluate a risk response level by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the consideration of the downtime and cost of measures. Based on the result of the risk impact analysis, the risk events are divided into four risk response levels and these levels are verified by comparing with the actual occurrences of risk events. Measures to mitigate the potential risk events during the design and/or construction stages are also proposed. Result of this research will be of the help to the designers and contractors of TBM tunnelling projects in identifying the potential risks and for preparing a systematic risk management through the evaluation of the risk response level and the migration methods in the design and construction stage.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2007.11b
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• pp.168-170
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 신뢰성을 기반으로 하여 유지보수 비용과 리스크 양쪽을 고려해야 하는 장비의 최적한 유지보수를 정하는 방법을 나타내고 있다. 이러한 방법으로 장비의 고장 과정을 바탕으로 하는 확률론적 모델을 제시한다. 최적점검주기는 유지보수 비용과 고장으로부터 받은 피해비용의 총 비용을 최소화시킬 때 정해진다. 여기서는 신뢰성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위해 기기가 고장에 도달하는 경과를 나타내는 고장 모델을 작성하여 고장에 의해 발생하는 피해액을 산출하여 시스템 전체에서의 보전비용과 고장에 의한 피해액과의 총 코스트가 최소가 되는 보전주기를 최적한 보전주기로 한다.

• Defense and Technology
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• no.12 s.130
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• pp.62-69
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• 1989

현재 개발되고 있는 유럽의 헬기들은 거의 전부가 공동개발 형태이며, 이 프로그램들을 관리하는 기술은 이전의 영.불콩고드, 유럽의 에어버스, 불.독의 유로미사일 그리고 NATO의 Tornado 전투기프로그램에서 얻은 경험들을 토대로 하고 있다. 이 관리기술이 가장 최근에 실현된 프로그램이 EH-101이라 할수 있다. 엄청난 리스크와 비용을 유럽이 그간 축적한 경험으로 극복한 점은 유럽공동개발 프로그램으로서 EH-101이 갖는 각별한 의미이다

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.14D no.6
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• pp.689-700
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• 2007

Organizations and customers lose if business activities we discontinued by an incident of information systems under the current business environment because they pursue real time enterprise and on demand enterprise. The loss includes the intangible decline in brand image, customer separation, and the tangible loss such as decrease in business profits. Thus. it is necessary to have preparedness in advance and mitigation for minimization of a loss due to the business discontinuity and information system's operational risks. This paper suggests the mitigation model for minimizing the incidents of disk unit in information system's operational risks. The model will be represented by a network model which is composed of the three items as following: (1) causes, attributes, indicators of an operational risk, (2) a periodic time through an analysis of historical data, (3) an index or a regulation related to the examination of causes of an operational risk.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.1 s.29
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• pp.168-175
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• 2006

Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.793-816
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• 2005

This paper proposes a new answering mechanism called RAM (Risk Answering Mechanism) which can be applied to a contingent valuation method. The RAM is derived from the theory of expected utility maximization under the assumption that there exists an uncertainty in a nonmarket good of interest. In RAM, a respondent would accept an uncertain offer only if his or her WTP for the mean of the offer is large enough to exceed the bidding price by more than a risk premium. This is in a striking contrast with a traditional answering mechanism (TAM) in which the WTP is simply compared with the bidding price. Therefore, the TAM would underestimate the WTP by a risk premium without considering the uncertainty a respondent may face. An empirical comparison is made between RAM and TAM using a survey data on the Tong river. It is found that underestimation problem is very serious in the TAM.