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SD 모형을 이용한 한국 방위산업의 동태성 연구

  • Seo, Hyeok;O, Gi-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.23-42
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    • 2005
  • 세계 각 국은 자국의 이익을 보장하기 위해 방위산업의 기반을 강화하고 있고 갈수록 첨단무기체계를 도입 및 개발하고 있는 추세이다. 왜냐하면 방위산업은 평화와 군비경쟁이 공존하는 '균형속의 대결' 양상을 보이는 환경에서 자국의 생존을 위한 중요한 변수이기 때문이다. 한국의 방위산업도 1970년대 이후 괄목할 만한 성장을 이루었으나 구조적인 문제점을 탈피하지 못하였고 이제는 한계점에 도달하였다. 많은 방위산업 분야 전문가들은 현 시점에서 한국 방위산업의 발전과 활성화를 위한 방안들을 제시하였고, 정부에서도 자주국방의 기치 아래 다양한 개혁과 정책을 추구하고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 전문가 제시 내용과 연구 논문들은 방위산업의 대해 제한적으로 정성적인 분석과 대안제시에 국한되어 있는 수준이고 시스템 사고를 통해 인과관계를 분석하여 정책적인 대안을 제시하는 부분이 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 연구 논문에서는 방위산업의 전반적ㅇ.ㄴ 핵심요인을 식별하고 각 요인들간의 인과관계를 분석하여 한국 방위산업의 인과지도를 제시하였고 이를 통해 구조적인 문제점들을 해결하여 21세기 협력적 자주국방이 가능하도록 정책적인 대안을 제시하였다. 본 논문은 향후 복잡성이 가속화되는 방위산업에서 시스템적 사고를 이해하는데 기여가 될 것이고, 정책을 결정하고 추진하는 의사결정자와 무기체계 획득업무를 담당하는 실무자들에게 반드시 시스템적인 사고에 바탕을 둔 피드백 로프를 고려해야 한다는 것을 인식시킬 수 있을 것이다. 아울러 한국 방위산업의 활성화와 발전에 기여하리라 믿는다.정보통신산업을 미시적 분석이나 세부 항목별 정량적 분석을 통해서가 아니라 산업의 발전 속성 및 경기 순환 등의 관점에서 분석함으로써 정보통신산업 정책의 수립 및 집행을 거시적 안목 하에 정립할 수 있게 한다는 데 의의를 가진다. 또한 경제변수를 묘사하는데 있어 국면전환 확산과정을 사용함으로써 향후 실물옵션 등을 통한 기술 및 무형자산의 가치평가에 있어 기초자산의 움직임을 보다 정확히 포착해 낼 수 있는 프로세스를 제공하였다는데 또 다른 의의를 갖는다고 하겠다. 수 있다. 따라서 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배의 조화는 바로 노동효율 증가형 기순혁신이며, 이를 위한 인적자본에의 투자라고 말할 수 있다. 본 연구가 기술경제 패러다임(techno-economic paradigm)의 시각에서 제시하는 한국경제의 성장 ${\cdot}$ 고용 ${\cdot}$ 분배를 위한 정책방향은 다음과 같은 동태적발전과정으로 요약할 수 있다 : 기초과학연구능력 확충 ${\rightarrow}$ 소화 ${\cdot}$ 흡수 ${\cdot}$ 개량 ${\rightarrow}$ 토착화 능력의 배양 ${\rightarrow}$ 자체기술개발, 선진기술 도입, 산업간 및 산업내 기술확산, 국제기술협력 ${\rightarrow}$ 기술혁신의 촉진 ${\rightarro

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Modeling and Analysis the Competition Dynamics among Container Transshipment Ports : East-Asian Ports as a Case Study (컨테이너 환적 항만 간의 동태적 경쟁에 관한 연구 : 동아시아 항만을 중심으로)

  • Abdulaziz, Ashurov;Kim, Jae-bong;Park, Nam-ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.165-182
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the competitiveness and cooperativeness among the container ports in East Asia by analyzing their monthly dynamics in eight years (2008-2015). Time series data on container throughput divided into origin and destination (O/D), such as the top six Chinese ports and the transshipment (T/S) ports such as Hong Kong, Busan, and Singapore, are computed with two methods based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The first Granger causality test results show that Busan T/S has significant bilateral relations with three Chinese O/D ports; and significant unidirectional relations with three other O/D ports. Shenzhen port has significant bilateral relations with Singapore, and has a significant unidirectional relation with Hong Kong port. Co-integrating test results showed that Busan holds negative co-integration with all Chinese O/D ports. Impulse response function (IRF) results show an opposite direction between paired ports. The ratios of the impulse from T/S ports are significantly high to one another in the short-run, but its power declines as time passes. The ratio of the impulse from the Chinese ports to T/S ports is less significant in the short-run period, however, it becomes more significant as time passes. The significance of most shocks was high in the second period, but was diluted after the sixth period.

A Study on the Selecting Factors of Manufacturing and Logistic Hub in Far Eastern Area (극동지역 제조 및 물류거점 선정요인 중요도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hak-so;Han, Ji-young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2016
  • As geopolitical, archaeological and strategic interests on cooperation with countries in the Far Eastern Area is gradually increased, countries are competing to attract or install a logistics or manufacturing hub in their countries. In this study, we investigated the relative importance of factors on the main three and nine detailed criteria from the domestic and overseas experts on Far Eastern Area. Using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis, priority importance of factors was derived. As a result, we find that the most important factor was economic factor. In detail, industrial complex creation was the highest factor and the institutional guarantees for the investment on policy and transportation network was second highest factor. Based on analysis result, specific competitiveness level in the 10 region of Far East was follows. Hunchun, Vladivostok, Yanji, Tumen, Rajin, Hassan, Ussuriysk, Cheongjin, Mihaylov Skiing, Nije Jeuchinski were showed in order. Hunchun showed the highest competitive level in location, topography, compliance to the around cities, transportation network, industrial complex, excellence in logistics facilities, long-term investment plans, institutional guarantees for investment, customs efficiency and political stability. However, in other factors such as population and number of households, public facilities, potential demand and resource utilization, Vladivostok showed the highest level.

Effects of Spirulina Added Salad Dressing on the Antioxidant Index and DNA Protection in Mice (스피루리나 첨가 샐러드 드레싱 보충 식이가 마우스 혈장 항산화 지표 및 DNA보호에 미치는 영양)

  • Yang Yun-Hyoung;Xin Zhao;Felipe Penelope;Lee Tung-Hee;Ly Sun-Yung;Cho Yong-Sik;Chun Hye-Kyung;Song Kyung-Bin;Kim Mee-Ree
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.386-396
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    • 2005
  • The effects of spirulina-added salad dressing on lipid profiles and antioxidant biomarkers such as total glutathionine, TBARS value, carbonyl value, GPx, GR, SOD and paraoxonase activity in plasma or liver of mice were evaluated Sixteen male ICR mice weighing 20$\pm$2 g were divided into two groups and fed low fat ($5\%$ fat) diet (low fat control: LFC) and low fat control plus dressing diet (LFD) for eight weeks. Body weight, tissue weights of liver, heart and kidney, and the distribution of body fat deposition were not significantly different between two groups. Also, the profile of TG, TC, LDL and HDL cholesterol were similar between two groups. The DNA damage was determined using the comet assay (single cell gel assay) with alkaline electrophoresis and quantified by measuring tail length (TL). Spirulina salad dressing consumption resulted in significant decrease in lymphocyte DNA damage expressed by TL (LFC: $28.8{\mu}m$, LFD: $20.3{\mu}m$). Additionally, salad dressing consumption for 8 wks decreased the lipid peroxidation assayed by TBARS to $12.6\%$ compared with the control. The levels of antioxidant vitamins such as $\beta$-carotene were significantly higher in plasma of LFD group than those in LFC group based on HPLC method This study shows that spirulina-added salad dressing exerts degenerative disease-protective effects on oxidative DNA damage and lipid peroxidation possibly via a free radical levels.

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Implementation on the evolutionary machine learning approaches for streamflow forecasting: case study in the Seybous River, Algeria (유출예측을 위한 진화적 기계학습 접근법의 구현: 알제리 세이보스 하천의 사례연구)

  • Zakhrouf, Mousaab;Bouchelkia, Hamid;Stamboul, Madani;Kim, Sungwon;Singh, Vijay P.
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.395-408
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    • 2020
  • This paper aims to develop and apply three different machine learning approaches (i.e., artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), and wavelet-based neural networks (WNN)) combined with an evolutionary optimization algorithm and the k-fold cross validation for multi-step (days) streamflow forecasting at the catchment located in Algeria, North Africa. The ANN and ANFIS models yielded similar performances, based on four different statistical indices (i.e., root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient (R), and peak flow criteria (PFC)) for training and testing phases. The values of RMSE and PFC for the WNN model (e.g., RMSE = 8.590 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.252 for (t+1) day, testing phase) were lower than those of ANN (e.g., RMSE = 19.120 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.446 for (t+1) day, testing phase) and ANFIS (e.g., RMSE = 18.520 ㎥/sec, PFC = 0.444 for (t+1) day, testing phase) models, while the values of NSE and R for WNN model were higher than those of ANNs and ANFIS models. Therefore, the new approach can be a robust tool for multi-step (days) streamflow forecasting in the Seybous River, Algeria.

A bibliography of six foreign plant collectors (Imai, Mills, Furumi, Nomura, Saito, and Okuyama) in North Korea (한반도 북부 채집을 시도한 외국인 6명과 지명 정리: Imai, Mills, Furumi, Nomura, Saito, Okuyama)

  • Chang, Chin-Sung;Kim, Hye-Won;Kim, Hui
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2016
  • Korean Peninsula Flora Database (KPF database), developed by T.B. Lee Herbarium of Seoul National University comprises ca. 65,000 accessions of vascular plants collected from Korean peninsula from 1850 to 1945. Among these, material from North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) is represented with ca. 33,000 accessions. The largest part of this material [ca. 4287 accessions (13%) from North Korea] originates from five Japanese and one American collectors, such as Imai, Hanjiro, Mills, Ralph Garfield, Furumi, Masatomi, Nomura, Naohiko, Saito, Tatsumoto, and Okuyama, Shunki from 1909 to 1942. These data are the third largest holding (13%) of North Korean collections after Komarov, V.L and Nakai, T. A part of scientific report about the results of these expeditions had been published before, but the present publication set it sights on giving a first overview of the itineraries and the materials collected by five collectors in North Korea. Among these, Saito has by far the largest collection with 1,730 specimens, followed by five collectors in order with 1,067, 532, 510, 368 and 370 accessions by Mills, Nomura, Okuyama, Furumi, and Imai respectively.

Chemical control of Sycamore Lace Bug, Corythucha ciliata(Say) (버즘나무방페벌레의 약제방제(藥劑防除)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Chul-Su;Park, Ji-Doo;Byun, Byung-Ho;Park, Il-Kwon;Chae, Chung-Suck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.3
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    • pp.384-388
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    • 2000
  • For the control of Corythucha ciliata, the insecticidal activity of five commercial pesticides (Monocrotophos 25%SL, Phosphamidon 50%SL, Imidacloprid 20%DC, Thiamethoxam 15%DC and Acetamiprid 20%SL) were examined with trunk injection method in Seoul, Sanbon and Chungju. The insecticidal activity of five commercial pesticides was >88%. The insecticidal activity of Monocrotophos maintained 31 days later after trunk injection when treated leaves were supplied to this pest. This result indicates that one application of trunk injection is enough to control this pest, and this method can save the control cost compared with ground application which should be applied two or three times per year to control this pest. To make the model of treatment dosage at each D.B.H class (cm), $1.0m{\ell}/DBH$, $1.5m{\ell}/DBH$ and $2.0m{\ell}/DBH$ pesticide dosage was used. At <20cm, the insecticidal activity of $1.0m{\ell}$ dosage was >95%, and $1.5-2.5m{\ell}$ dosage was needed for the effective control at 30~50cm. More than $2.5m{\ell}$ dosage was effective at >50cm. Spray method was used in laboratory to select pesticides for ground application. Three commercial pesticides (Ethofenprox 20%EC, Ethofenprox 10%WP and Cyfluthrin 1%EC) were used, and all pesticides showed >95% insecticidal activity.

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A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Related to Tower Crane Using the FMEA (타워크레인의 정량적 위험성 평가가법에 관한 연구(FMEA 기법 위주))

  • Shim, Kyu-Hyung;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.34-39
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest objective evaluation model as a plan to utilize as opportunity in establishing judgment standard of mutual inspection criteria and to upgrade inspection ability by reviewing and analyzing level of danger and importance in advance based on inspection results of inspection institutions regarding tower cranes used in construction fields. Tower crane is a mechanical device transporting construction supplies and heavy materials to places over 20~150M high from the ground for the period ranging from a short time of 2~3 months to two years after being installed in construction sites in vicinity of buildings or structures and is an important facility indispensable for construction sites. However, since use period after installation is short and professional technical ability of technicians working on-site about of tower crane is poor, systematic and quantitative safety management is not carried out As a part of researches on procedure of RBI(Risk Based Inspection) possible to apply to Knowledge Based System based on knowledge and experiences of experts as well as to tower cranes for solving these problems, quantitative RPN(Risk Priority Number) was applied to RPN utilizing technique of FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analyses). When general RBI 80/20 Rule was applied parts with high level of risks were found out as wire rope, hoist up/down safety device, reduction gear, and etc. However, since there are still many insufficient parts as risk analyses of tower crane were not established, it is necessary for experts with sufficient experiences and knowledge to supplement active RBI techniques and continuous researches on tower cranes by sharing and setting up data base of important information with this study as a starting point.

A Study on the Optimal Concession Contract Decision Model between Port Authority and Terminal Operators (항만공사와 터미널운영사간 최적임대계약 결정에 관한 모형)

  • Ashurov, Abdulaziz;Kim, Jae-Bong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2019
  • The competition between port authorities (PAs) and terminal operating companies (TOCs) in providing port logistics services has gained importance. The PAs enter into leasing contracts with TOCs in various ways. This study aims to model a contract method that maximizes the joint profit between a PA and a TOC. Particularly, this study aims to model the equilibrium by comparing four types of contract schemes in the non-coordination, cooperation, Cournot, and collusion models. The results of the analysis show that the two-part tariff scheme generates a higher joint profit than the fixed and fee contracts. It is understood that risk- and profit-sharing between the PAs and TOCs helps the latter to maximize the throughput and the joint profit. These results are expected to provide an important theoretical basis for decision-making about port rent and freight between the PAs and TOCs.

A Study on the Behavior & Buckling Characteristics of Single-Layer Latticed Domes in the Erection Process (단층 래티스 돔의 Erection 중 거동 및 좌굴 특성)

  • Jung, Hwan-Mok;Kim, Cheol-Hwan;Hwang, Dong-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2008
  • A single layer-latticed dome is advantageous for large span structures because it is very stiff despite the light weight of the structure itself. However, this structure becomes easily unstable during erection due to its large size. The Block method is popular with the large span structures. A partial block of the dome is fabricated on the ground and lifted by crane to a designated location of structures. The lifting point selection is very important to create a stable erection and to avoid buckling of members during the erection. The purpose of this study is to analyze the structural behaviors and buckling characteristics according to the lifting point of single-layer latticed domes with triangle network in order to take materials about the safe and economic erection. The conclusions are obtained as follow. 1) The buckling strength of the block part varies with the location of lifting points when it is erected. In case, the height of the dome is lower, the effort of buckling strength of the structure is higher. 2) In buckling strength, the effect of the lifting rope length is smaller than it of the lifting points change.

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