• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로짓 분석

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패널자료를 이용한 노년기 거주형태 변화분석

  • Kim, Jeong-Seok
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2007
  • 인구고령화의 진전과 함께 노인들의 거주형태에 대한 사회적. 정책적 관심이 증기하고 있으며, 그에 대한 논의와 연구들 또한 많이 늘어나고 있다. 그러나 이들 연구 대부분이 횡단적 자료(단일 시점이든 여러 시점이든)와 분석에 의존함으로써 노인지 거주형태가 생애주기를 따라 변하는 모습을 충분히 보여주지 못하고 있다. 이 연구는 한국노동연구원의 제1차 및 제6차 노동패널자료를 이용해 노년기 거주형태의 유동성을 경험적으로 제시하려는 목적을 가진다. 이들 위해 거주형태의 출현율(prevalence rate)과 전이율(transition rate)을 개념적으로 구분하고 자녀동거여부에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 두 시점에 대한 횡단폭 분석결과는 노인들의 사회인구학적 특성에 따른 자녀별거경향의 차이를 보여주더라도 생애주기에 따른 역동성을 보여주기에는 한계가 많음이 확인되었다. 두 시점 간의 거주형태 변화에 대한 패널분석에서는 다수 노인들의 거주형태가 주어진 기간 동안 안정적으로 나타났다. 그러나 거주형태의 변화를 경험하는 데에는 연령증가와 배우자 상태변화 등이 중요한 요인임이 확인되었다. 이러한 생애주기적 변화의 효과는 대부분의 계량적 연구에서 유추되는 수준이거나 질적 연구에서만 보고되어 왔던 것이다. 이 연구결과는 노년기 거주형태의 지속성을 보여주는 한편 변화 가능성과 요인을 파악함으로써 노년기 거주형태에 대한 개념적 이해론 공고히 할 것으로 기대된다. 또한 이 연구에서 제시된 방법론적 논의와 접근방식은 생애주기별 변화에 초점을 두고자 하는 다른 연구영역에서도 적용 가능할 것이라 기대된다.

A Study on Users' Travel Behavior Analysis of Transit Transfer (대중교통 이용자의 환승교통수단선택 행태분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Kim, Jae Seok;Kim, Min Seok;Woo, Yong Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2013
  • This study developed the transit transfer mode choice model aimed Daegu transit users using multinomial logit model. Dependent variables of estimating multinomial logit model were transit transfer modes such as bus to bus, bus to subway, subway to subway, bus to others, and subway to others, and explanatory variables which affect transit transfer mode choice were sex, age, occupation, handicap, transfer area, purpose of travel and travel time. Also probability regarding explanatory variables was estimated using multinomial logit model and limit marginal analysis was carried out according to explanatory variables(cost, time). In the results, indicating goodness of fit is very reasonable as ${\rho}^2$=0.354. According to the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability, when travel time is increased, users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use subway to subway. Furthermore users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use bus to others and subway to others when travel cost is increased in the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability.

Customer Churning Forecasting and Strategic Implication in Online Auto Insurance using Decision Tree Algorithms (의사결정나무를 이용한 온라인 자동차 보험 고객 이탈 예측과 전략적 시사점)

  • Lim, Se-Hun;Hur, Yeon
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2006
  • This article adopts a decision tree algorithm(C5.0) to predict customer churning in online auto insurance environment. Using a sample of on-line auto insurance customers contracts sold between 2003 and 2004, we test how decision tree-based model(C5.0) works on the prediction of customer churning. We compare the result of C5.0 with those of logistic regression model(LRM), multivariate discriminant analysis(MDA) model. The result shows C5.0 outperforms other models in the predictability. Based on the result, this study suggests a way of setting marketing strategy and of developing online auto insurance business.

Life Satisfaction of Urban-to-Rural Migrants in South Korea - Income vs. Nature - (귀농·귀촌인의 소득만족도와 자연환경만족도 비교 분석)

  • Jung, Jin Hwa;Kim, Sae Bom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2019
  • 농촌인구의 급격한 감소와 고령화 속에서 농촌의 지속가능성을 위한 방안으로 귀농·귀촌의 확대가 부각되고 있다. 본 연구는 귀농·귀촌인의 생활만족도 결정요인을 분석함으로써 도시민의 농촌 이주와 성공적인 정착을 촉진하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 본 연구는 특히 귀농·귀촌의 주요 동기가 소득이나 농촌의 자연환경이라는 점에서, 생활만족도를 자연환경만족도와 소득만족도로 구분하여 비교 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 분석에는 순서형 로짓모형과 일반화 로짓모형을 사용하였고, 분석자료는 2016년 「귀농귀촌실태조사」 원자료이다. 분석결과, 귀농·귀촌인의 자연환경만족도는 상당히 높으나 소득만족도는 보통 수준에 미치지 못하였다. 귀농·귀촌의 이유가 자연환경이거나, 귀농·귀촌 시 가족의 지지가 있었거나, 귀농·귀촌 이후 주변 이웃들과 좋은 관계를 유지하거나, 지자체로부터 귀농·귀촌 지원을 받은 경우, 귀농·귀촌인의 소득만족도와 자연환경만족도가 모두 높았다. 이러한 공통적인 요인 이외에 귀농·귀촌인의 소득만족도와 자연환경만족도에 영향을 미치는 요인은 뚜렷한 차이를 보였다. 소득만족도는 현재 가구소득이나 귀농·귀촌 전·후 소득 변화와 같은 경제적 요인에 의해 영향을 받으나, 자연환경만족도는 귀농·귀촌 시 배우자의 동행 여부나 지역사회 참여와 같은 사회적 요인에 의해 주로 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

Predicting Interesting Web Pages by SVM and Logit-regression (SVM과 로짓회귀분석을 이용한 흥미있는 웹페이지 예측)

  • Jeon, Dohong;Kim, Hyoungrae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2015
  • Automated detection of interesting web pages could be used in many different application domains. Determining a user's interesting web pages can be performed implicitly by observing the user's behavior. The task of distinguishing interesting web pages belongs to a classification problem, and we choose white box learning methods (fixed effect logit regression and support vector machine) to test empirically. The result indicated that (1) fixed effect logit regression, fixed effect SVMs with both polynomial and radial basis kernels showed higher performance than the linear kernel model, (2) a personalization is a critical issue for improving the performance of a model, (3) when asking a user explicit grading of web pages, the scale could be as simple as yes/no answer, (4) every second the duration in a web page increases, the ratio of the probability to be interesting increased 1.004 times, but the number of scrollbar clicks (p=0.56) and the number of mouse clicks (p=0.36) did not have statistically significant relations with the interest.

An Analysis on Determinants of Farmers' Perception to Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 대한 농업인의 인식에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Park, Guen Ah;Lee, Sang Ho;Kim, Myung Hyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants affecting Korean farmers' perception to climate change using multinomial logit and ordered logit model. The major findings of this study are summarized as follows. First, the results indicate that 85.7 percent of farmers have perceived climate change and 85.8 percent of farmers have anticipated that the impact of climate change on agriculture within 10 years. Second, the results show that farming experience, successor to farming, use of computer have a significant impact on expectation to climate change. Finally, the findings also indicate that sex, age, and education have a significant impact on expectation of the mean temperature to climate change.

Characteristics of Housing ownership Structure and Residential Location Preference of Korean Immigrants: Case Study of Korean Immigrants in Washington State (한인 이주민의 주택 소유구조 및 주거입지 선호 특성 -미국 워싱턴 주 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Wonseok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.660-675
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    • 2012
  • This paper aims at, analyzing the characteristics of immigration path, residential status and residential location preference of Korean immigrants in Washington State of United State. The main results of this study are as follows. Firstly, according to the questionnaire survey results, respondents tend to prefer own housing as their incomes are higher. Secondly, Location factors which respondents most prefer are safety, natural environment and school district. Thirdly, household income influences the housing ownership rate of respondents, according to the result of binomial logistic regression analysis on the impact of individual characteristics of the respondents on the housing ownership structure. Finally, according to the results of logistic regression analysis on the impact of individual characteristics and housing ownership structure of the respondents on the residential location preferences, (1) respondents who own housings more prefer school district as residential location factor, (2) respondents their age are over 40 years old prefer safety/amenity as residential location factor, (3) respondents their immigration period are more than 10 years prefer safety/amenity as residential location factor, (4) respondents their initial immigration region are not Washington state prefer safety/amenity as residential location factor.

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Wife-older Marriage and Economic Factors : Empirical Analysis (우리나라 여성연상 결혼의 경제적 요인 : 실증분석)

  • Sung, Nak-Il;Jo, Dong-Hyuk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2010
  • This study examines difference in age at marriage between spouses and more importantly, investigates into the economic and social factors affecting the ratio or probability of wife-older marriages. Empirical analysis is carried out by applying both logit model and multinomial logit model to an independently pooled cross-section over 2004-2007. The data was collected mainly from the micro data service system of the Statistics Korea. Empirical results indicate that a wife-older marriage was more likely as a wife was more educated and was a larger income earner than a husband. On the other hand, a wife's educational and income level themselves had few systematic relationships with the probability of a wife-older marriage. The probability of a wife-older marriage tended to decrease(increase) when a husband's(a wife's) marriage was the second' The study calculates the average marginal effect of difference in the income level between spouses on the probability of a wife-older marriage, which is -0.007. That is, the probability of a wife-older marriage increases by 0.7% as a husband's income level is 1 million Korean Won less than a wife's. This results presents empirical evidence against widely distributed misconception on wife-older marriage in the mass media.

Analyzing the Impact for Housing Occupied Form of HouseNomad ('하우스노마드족'의 주거점유형태에 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Yun, Jin-Young;Oh, Jongryul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.955-963
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    • 2014
  • According to the "Population and Housing Census of 2010", announced by the National Statistical Office, "House Nomad group" was increased by more than 70% compared to 2005. Emergence of House Nomad tribe about the cause of the increase of influence and House Nomad tribe give the housing market, but prior to the discussion often, there is no place that still it became clearly evident in the research. The purpose of this study, are looking for the emergence and increasing cause of House Nomad group in terms of consumption behavior of the house. For this reason, We use the Population and Housing Census 1% of the data 2010. and Multinomial Logit Models., is a useful method that can be utilized when there is no rank and order the consumer choice. The results were as follows. House Nomad group was found to be higher probability of living place and good environmental characteristics of housing that has been expressed in the properties of the housing. Also appeared to have a relatively longer time commuting. And that residential mobility is high.

A Study for the Development of Motion Picture Box-office Prediction Model (영화 흥행 결정 요인과 흥행 성과 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Yon-Hyong;Hong, Jeong-Han
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.859-869
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    • 2011
  • Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.