• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.83-93
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• 2020

Bivariate measure of risk and error(BMORE) plot is originally designed to depict bivariate output data and related statistics obtained from a stochastic simulation such as sample mean, median, outliers, and a boundary of a certain percentile of simulation data. When compared to the static numbers, the plot has a big advantage in visualization that enables scholars and practitioners to understand the potential variability and risk in the simulation data. In this study, beyond just the construction of the plot to depict the variability of a certain system, we add a chance constraint to the plot and apply it for decision making such as checking the feasibility of systems, comparing performances of the systems on statistical background, and also analyzing the sensitivity of the problem parameters. In order to demonstrate an application of the plot, we employ an inventory management problem as an example. However, the techniques and algorithms suggested in this paper can be applied to any other problems comparing systems on bivariate performance measures with simulation/experiment results.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.37-46
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• 2004

In order to decrease the area damaged by forest fires and to prevent the occurrence of forest fires, we are making an effort to improve prevention measures for forest fires. The objective of this study is to classify hazard regions where forest fires occur based on the factors that contribute to the occurrence of forest fires. Forest fire sites in the Uiseong-gun, Gyeongsangbuk-do were surveyed according to the factors of forest type and topographic characteristics where the forest fires occurred. We used a correlation analysis to determine the forest fire occurrence factors and a conditional probability analysis and GIS to determine a forest fire danger index. The resulting forest fire danger index was used in the classification of forest fire occurrence risk regions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.447-457
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• 2014

This research focuses on the changes of return period for nonstationary rainfall data in which exceedance or nonexceedance probability varies depending on time. We examined two definitions of return period under nonstationarity and also performed nonstationary frequency analysis using the nonstationary Gumbel model to investigate variations of return period in Korea. Seogwipo, Inje, Jecheon, Gumi, Mungyeong, and Geochang were selected as subject sites of application. These sites have a trend in rainfall data as well as having more than 30 years data. As the results of application, the return periods considering nonstationarity are different with those considering stationarity. The differences of return periods between nonstationarity and stationarity increase as growing return period increases. In addition, the return period using the expected waiting time method shows lower value than that using the expected number of event method.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

In order to prevent deterioration of reinforced concrete structures exposed to marine environment, performance based durability design than the design by conventional deemed-to-satisfy rule should be concerned. For example, even though chloride threshold level, which is a major parameter for durability design, is defined as a 1.2 $kg/m^3$ in the Korean concrete specification, it shows that the chloride threshold level leads to over design in its real application so that realistic value should be determined for the performance design. In this paper, not only the probabilistic properties of chloride threshold level obtained from published data are taken into account, but also the experimental results of the probabilistic properties using surface chloride content, diffusion coefficient, cover depth are considered in the assessment utilizing the concept of performance based durability design. In computation, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to perform an assessment due to chloride attack for a target submerged tunnel box. This study found that the specification on current chloride threshold level should be modified for more rational and accurate assessment and design.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1294-1301
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• 2014

In this paper, separate probabilistic distribution models for voiced and unvoiced speech are estimated and utilized to improve speaker recognition performance. Also, in addition to the conventional mel-frequency cepstral coefficient, skewness, kurtosis, and harmonic-to-noise ratio are extracted and used for voiced speech intervals. Two kinds of scores for voiced and unvoiced speech are linearly fused with the optimal weight found by exhaustive search. The performance of the proposed speaker recognizer is compared with that of the conventional recognizer which uses mel-frequency cepstral coefficient and a unified probabilistic distribution function based on the Gassian mixture model. Experimental results show that the lower the number of Gaussian mixture, the greater the performance improvement by the proposed algorithm.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.195-206
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• 2020

This study aims to analyze the effect of consumer characteristics such as consumer innovativeness on using popular social media in Korea. Social media usage is estimated by probit and multinomial probit model with user characteristics using Korea media panel data of 2019. According to the analysis, users with hedonoc innovativeness are likely to use social media, while users with cognitive innovativeness are not likely to use it. Regarding individual social media usage, functional innovativeness increases the probability of using Kakaostory, and hedonic innovativeness increases the likelihood of using Instagram. However, cognitive innovativeness decreases the probability of using Kakaosotry and Naver Band. This study gives insights into finding out specific social media for marketing certain products with innovativeness. In future research, it may be worthwhile to analyze under the assumption that a social media user is using several social media simultaneously.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.29 no.9
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• pp.71-80
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• 2013

This work studies the reliability analysis of a slope that considers multiple failure modes. The analysis consists of two parts. First, significant failure modes that contribute most to system reliability are determined. The so-called barrier method proposed by Der Kiureghian and Dakessian to identify significant failure modes successively is employed. Second, the failure probability for the slope is estimated on the basis of the identified significant failure modes and corresponding design points. For reliability problems entailing multiple design points, failure probability can be estimated by the multi-point first-order reliability method (FORM), Ditlevsen's bounds method, and Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, a comparative study between these methods has been made through example problems. Analysis results showed that while a soil slope may have a large number of potential slip surfaces, its system failure probability is usually governed by a few significant slip surfaces. Therefore, the most important step in the system reliability analysis for a soil slope is to identify all the significant failure modes in an efficient way.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.1311-1319
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• 1992

In the partial-band interference and Rayleigh fading environments, the bit error probability equation of FH/MFSK signal has been derived and the error rate has been evaluated. And the results are shown in graphs and discussed. Here, to improve the error rate performance the repeated diversity and the error-correction coding techniques are adopted. The degree of improvement of error rate performance has been found out in diversity and coding techniques respectively. In diversity case, repetition number is taken as a parameter and in coding case, as the error-correction codes Hamming code, BCH code, and convolutional code are introduced. From the obtained results, we have known that the increase of the number of repetition in diversity technique has been brought a little improvement of performance but the coding technique considerable improvement and in particular, convolutional code is very effective. Therefore, coding technique is considered to be better than repeated diversity to cope with Rayleigh fading and partial-band interference.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.503-512
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• 1995

Groundwater flow in fracture networks is simulated using a discrete fracture (DF) model which assume that groundwater flows only through the fracture network. This assumption is available if the permeability of rock matrix is very low. It is almost impossible to describe fracture networks perfectly, so a stochastic approach is used. The stochastic approach assumes that the characteristic parameters in fracture network have special distribution patterns. The stochastic model generates fracture networks with some characteristic parameters. The finite element method is used to compute fracture flows. One-dimensional line element is the element type of the finite elements. The simulation results are shown by dominant flow paths in the fracture network. The dominant flow path can be found from the simulated groundwater flow field. The model developed in this study provides the tool to estimate the influences of characteristic parameters on groundwater flow in fracture networks. The influences of some characteristic parameters on the frcture flow are estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation based on 30 realizations.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.282-282
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• 2017

모래, 실트 및 자갈과 같은 비점착성 유사는 하천에서의 이동 형태에 따라 소류사와 부유사로 구분된다. 부유사는 난류로 인해 흐름 내에서 부유 상태로 이동하는 유사로, 대부분의 자연 하천에서 유사는 부유사 형태로 이송된다. 유수동역학적 조건 하에서 이동하는 부유사의 입도 분포는 유사 입자의 부유와 퇴적에 따라 불규칙적으로 변화하기 때문에 여러 연구에서 주요한 문제로 다뤄지고 있다. 부유사의 입도 분포는 흐름 유속, 부유사의 부유 높이, 하상 재료의 특성 등에 따라 변화하며, 로그 정규분포를 따르는 것으로 알려져 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 여러 다양한 하천 흐름 조건에서 부유사의 입도 분포를 모의할 수 있는 입도 분포 모형에 관한 개념적 틀(Framework)을 제안한다. 유사 입자의 입도 분포 모의는 추계학적 방법의 적용을 통해 얻어진다. 본래 점착성 유사의 입도 분포를 모의하기 위한 추계학적 입도 분포 모형으로부터 제안된 개념적 틀로, 다양한 흐름 조건 하에서 특정 확률 분포형을 띠는 입도 분포를 모의할 수 있다. 점착성 유사의 이동 모형에서는 점착성을 띠는 유사 입자들의 응집 현상에 따른 크기 변화를 모의하기 위한 응집 모형이 필수적이다. 시간에 따른 크기 변화를 모의하는 응집 모형에서, 흐름 내 여러 특성들에 의해 결정되는 응집 인자와 달리 파괴 인자의 경우 불규칙적 난류 운동으로 인해 무작위한 특성을 띤다. 모형에서 요구되는 파괴 인자를 특정 확률 분포형을 띠는 난수로 고려함으로써 점착성 유사의 입도 분포 모형이 개발되었다. 이 때, 점착성 유사는 프랙탈 구조를 가지는 것으로 가정하기 때문에 크기에 따라 밀도와 침강 속도가 변화한다. 반면 비점착성 유사는 크기에 따른 밀도 변화가 일어나지 않으므로, 고정된 밀도와 프랙탈 차원을 적용하여 점착성 유사의 입도 분포모형으로부터 비점착성 유사의 입도 분포 모의가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 추계학적 방법의 적용을 통해, 하나의 경계 조건으로 대변되는 하상 특성에 따른 단점 또한 보완될 것으로 예측된다. 예를 들어 로그 정규 분포를 띤다고 가정할 때 보정을 통해 결정해야하는 변수는 평균과 분산으로 두 개가 요구된다. 유사의 평균 크기로부터 확률분포형의 평균값이 결정되면, 하상에 존재하는 유사의 특성에 따른 입도 분포의 분산은 난수의 분산을 결정함으로써 모의할 수 있다.