• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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• v.20 no.1 s.26
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• pp.9-27
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• 2006

The East Asian (China, Korea and Japan) summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the 22 coupled climate models performing coordinated experiments leading to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) following the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique. Results are based on averages of all the available models. The shape of the annual cycle with maximum during the summer monsoon period is simulated by the coupled climate models. However, models fail to simulate the minimum peak in July which is associated with northward shifts of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu precipitation band. The MME precipitation pattern is able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall associated with the location of the north Pacific subtropical high and the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu frontal zone. However precipitation over the east coast of China, Korea-Japan peninsular and the adjoining oceanic regions is underestimated. Future projections to the radiative forcing of doubled $CO_2$ scenario are examined. The MME reveals an increase in precipitation varying from 5 to 10 %, with an average of 7.8 % over the East Asian region at the time of $CO_2$ doubling. However the increases are statistically significant only over the Korea-Japan peninsula and the adjoining north China region. The increase in precipitation may be attributed to the projected intensification of the subtropical high, and thus the associated influx of moist air from the Pacific to inland. The projected changes in the amount of precipitation are directly proportional to the changes in the strength of the subtropical high. Further a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon precipitation period from late spring through early autumn is suggested.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.1-21
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• 1995

The characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon have been investigated for the periods of 1993/1994, the contrasting years in a view of the summer monsoon precipitation. In order to investigate the monsoon features over the eastern Asian monsoon region, the cloudiness(using the extensive data derived by the geostationary meteorological satellite), the condition of underlying surface including sea-surface temperature, and the summer rainfall are analyzed and some comparisons with 1993 and 1994 are also made and the characteristic differences are discussed. An analysis of the 2-degree latitude-longitude gridded 5-day mean high cloud amount data shows the detailed movement and persistence of the convective activities. In order to describe the spatial and temporal structures of the intraseasonal oscillation for the movement and evolution of the monsoon cloud, the extended empirical orthogonal fnction analysis with the twenty-day window size is used for the each year. Also, in order to find out the periodicity of the equatorial convective cluster, Fourier harmonic analysis is applied to the each year. The most prevailing intraseasonal oscillations of high cloud amount are 61 day mode and 15day mode in the equatorial and the subtropical oceans. However it was found that the most prevailing modes over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean were different for each year, hence raising the possibillity that the contrasting monsoon presipitation may be more fundamentally related to the interaction of intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal variation of convective activities over the lower latitude ocean.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.425-425
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• 2022

동아시아 지역은 몬순 영향으로 계절적인 수자원 변동성이 매우 크고 홍수 및 가뭄과 같은 수재해 피해가 빈번히 발생하고 추세이다. 본 연구에서는 동아시아의 수자원 관리에 활용하기 위해 수문 모형 중 하나인 WRF-Hydro (Weather Research and Forecast and Model Hydrological modeling extension package) 모형을 구축하였다. WRF-Hydro 모형은 미국 NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)에서 개발된 커뮤니티형 고해상도 예측모델로 미국 등에서 활발히 사용되고 있으나, 동아시아 지역에 적용된 연구는 없다. 따라서 모형의 동아시아 적용 가능성에 대한 불확실성이 높다. 본 연구에서는 WRF-Hydro 모형을 0.25°의 공간해상도로 동아시아 대상으로 구축하였고, 기상 및 지면 특성과 유역자료를 활용한 머신러닝 방법으로 파라미터 보정을 시행하여 2006년부터 2015년까지 구동하였다. 머신러닝을 통해 지역특성이 고려된 WRF-Hydro 모형은 표면유출, 보수깊이, 표면 거칠기, 표면 기울기와 같은 매개변수를 보정하였다. 모형 평가를 위해 GRDC (Global Runoff Database Center (GRDC), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System), ESA-CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)에서 제공하는 관측 유출량, 토양수분, 증발산량을 비교, 분석하여 동아시아 적용 적절성에 대해 검토하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.334-337
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• 2003

The results of this numerical model is usable to analysis for the phenomena of precipitation during the periods of a rainy season in the Northeastern Asia. Case l(start of rainy season) dominates over precipitation by the processing of convection from the equator region through the East China region, and then the most of water vapor is transported by the processing of advection from the India-monsoon region to this study region. Case 2(heavy rainy season) faints precipitation by the processing of convection in the Korean peninsula, but dominates precipitation by the processing of microphysics. the water vapor originates from the India-monsoon region.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.593-607
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• 2015

This study examined the Holocene environmental changes by OSL dating and magnetic susceptibility (MS) in 12 sediment cores from estuarine tidal flat, Mosan Bay Estuary, west coast of Korea. For the complexity of the geomorphic characteristics of estuaries, it is difficult to obtain a series of data. The following significant results were derived using relatively simple methods. First, MS data shows sensitive changes in pattern according to the precipitation change during mid to late Holocene. Second, MS data show periodicity of 250 yr. when they were wavelet transformed. This periodicity is related with the intensifying of solar intensity, the East Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO. Thus, MS data from estuarine sediments are valuable data which can explain mechanism of climate change in East Asia and worthy as proxy data.

• Atmosphere
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.75-90
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• 2005

This study examines the impacts of land cover changes on the East Asia summer monsoon with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Regional Climate Model (NCAR RegCM2), coupled with Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). To assess the goals, two types of land cover maps were used in the simulation of summer climate. One type was NCAR land cover map (CTL) and the other was current land cover map derived from satellite data (land cover: LCV). Warm and cold surface temperature biases of $1-3^{\circ}C$ occurred over central China and Mongolia in CTL. The model produced excessive precipitation over northern land area but less over southern ocean of the model domain. Changes of biophysical parameters, such as albedo, minimum stomatal resistance and roughness length, due to the land cover changes resulted in the alteration of land-atmosphere interactions. Latent heat flux and wind speed in LCV increased noticeably over central China where deciduous broad leaf trees have been replaced by mixed farm and irrigated crop. As a result, the systematic warm biases over central China were greatly reduced in LCV. Strong cooling of central China decreased pressure gradient between East Asian continent and Pacific Ocean. The decreased pressure gradient suppressed the northward transport of moisture from south China and South China Sea. These changes reduced not only the excessive precipitation over north China and Mongolia but also less precipitation over south China. However, the land cover changes increased the precipitation over the Korean Peninsula and the Japan Islands, especially in July and August.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.68-81
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• 2015

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.578-578
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• 2015

동아시아 지역의 대부분은 몬순의 영향으로 인해 수자원의 계절적 변동성이 크며 이로 인해 홍수 및 가뭄이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 기후변화에 따른 기온과 강수량의 변화는 수자원의 변동성을 더욱 악화시킬 수 있으며, 수재해 피해를 더욱 가중시킬 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 동아시아 지역의 기온 및 강수량의 변화를 전망하고, 그 특성을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 CMIP5의 핵심실험인 2개 RCP시나리오(RCP4.5, RCP8.5)에 대한 다수의 GCMs 결과를 이용하였다. 구축한 기후시나리오를 이중선형보간법(bilinear interpolation)을 이용하여 공간적으로 상세화하였으며, Delta method를 이용하여 편의보정을 수행하였다. GCM 모의자료의 편의를 산정하기 위해 관측자료는 APHRODITE의 기온 및 강수량 자료를 이용하였다. GCM에 따라 차이가 나지만, 우리나라의 경우 평균적으로 100~300mm 정도 과소모의 되는 것으로 나타났다. 미래 기온 및 강수량 전망을 위해 과거기간은 1976~2005년, 미래기간은 2021~2050년(2040s), 2061~2090년(2070s)으로 구분하였다. 우리나라의 경우 RCP 4.5 하에서 연평균기온은 $1.4{\sim}1.7^{\circ}C$(2040s), $2.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$(2070s) 정도 상승할 것으로 나타났으며, 연평균 강수량은 4.6~5.3% (2040s), 8.4~10.5% (2070s) 정도 증가할 것으로 나타났다. RCP 8.5에서는 연평균 기온은 RCP4.5에 비해 상승폭이 더 컸으며, 강수량은 유사한 결과가 나타났다. 또한, 동아시아 지역에서도 연평균 기온이 상승하고 연평균 강수량은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 지역별로 계절별 기온 및 강수량이 매우 다른 양상으로 나타났다. 이는 동아시아 지역과 같이 계절별 강수량 발생패턴이 다른 지역에서는 홍수 및 가뭄에 매우 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 따라서 지역적으로 계절별 강수량의 변화를 분석해야 할 것으로 판단되며, 추후 유출량 모의를 기반으로 홍수 및 가뭄의 영향을 직접적으로 분석해야할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.360-360
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• 2011

우리나라의 극치강수량 발생 특성은 6~8월 사이에 몬순시스템에 의해 영향을 많이 받는다. 이러한 동아시아 몬순시스템은 대규모 기상학적 거동으로서 우리나라의 국지적 강수발생 특성과 매우 큰 연관성을 가지고 있다. 우리나라의 극치강수량 발생 시에 나타나는 기상학적 특징을 진단하는 과정은 수문 기상학적으로 극치강수량을 예측할 수 있는 기본 토대를 제공할 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 우리나라에 발생한 극치강수량을 순위별로 추출하고 각 순위별로 극치강수량 발생시점을 중심으로 5일 이전의 기상변량을 NOAA 재해석(reanalysis) 자료로부터 추출하고 이를 합성시켜 기상특성을 평가하였다. 극치강수량의 기상학적 거동을 평가하기 위한 방법은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 기상변량으로는 Sea Level Pressure, Wind Vector, Geopotential Height 등을 추출한다. 둘째, 이들 기상자료로부터 대규모 강우장만을 추출하기 위해서 기준값(threshold)을 가지고 특정량 이상의 Storm Track만을 추출한다. 셋째, 이들 Storm Track들을 분류하여 범주화 시킨다. 넷째, 범주화된 Storm Track 별로 강수량 분포, 강수지속시간 등에 대한 확률 분포를 유도한다. 또한 이들 Storm Track에 패턴인식 기법을 적용하여 Storm Track의 이동경로를 추정할 수 있는 알고리즘을 개발하고자 한다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.319-323
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• 2024

It has been recognized that interannual relationship between Northeast Asian and western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon intensities has a negative correlation with a statistical significance. This teleconnection can be understood by the responses to the stationary Rossby wave, which is forced by variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon intensity. In addition, the relationship between two monsoon intensities have a large variability on decadal time-scale associated with adjacent climate variability. The study for the recent changes in these long-term relationships has not been reported so far. This study suggests the recent relationship between Northeast Asian and WNP summer monsoons with an extension of the analysis period in the previous studies. Based on the reanalysis datasets, this study also shows atmospheric teleconnection changes associated with El Nino in summertime during the different decadal periods. This study also suggests the possible reasons for the analysis results in terms of teleconnection changes.