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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

A Case Study: ICT and the Region-based Sharing Economy of a Start-up Social Enterprise (ICT 기반 지역 공유경제형 사회적 기업 사례 연구)

  • Roh, Taehyup
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.157-175
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    • 2016
  • Under the market economy of capitalism, several limitations reveal the inequity and redistribution problem of wealth, inefficiency of over-manufacturing and over-consumption, pollution of the natural environment, and the constraint of human liberty and dignity. The new challenge of symbiotic relationships that encourage individual corporations coincides with the need to practice social responsibility and share values to overcome these limitations. Social economy and the social enterprises that simultaneously pursue the making of corporate private profits and the realization of social values have been suggested and disseminated as alternative social value creators. Furthermore, the concept of a sharing economy, which refers to the sharing of things rather than owning them, is growing traction as a new paradigm of capitalism. However, these efforts of social enterprises have fallen short against the conflicts between private profit and social values. This study deals with the case of a start-up social corporation, "Purun Bike Sharing Inc.," which is based on a regional sharing economy business model about bike rental services that use Information and Communication Technology (ICT). This corporation pursues harmonic management to achieve a balance between private profit and social value. Its corporate mission is to achieve sharing, coexistence, and contribution for public welfare. This mission is a possible idea for use in the local community network as a core key for sustainable social enterprises. The model can also be an alternative approach to overcome the structural friction in the social corporation. This study considers the case of Purun Bike Sharing as a sustainable way to practice a sharing economy business model based on a regional cooperation network, which can be combined with social value, and to apply ICT to a sharing economy system. It also examines the definition and current state of social enterprises and the sharing economy, and the cases of the sharing economy business model for the review of prior research.

Study on Ventilation Efficiency of a Mechanically Ventilated Broiler House­(I)Summer Season (강제환기식 육계사내의 환기효율성 조사연구­(I)하절기)

  • 이인복;정문성;유병기;전종기;김경원;이승기
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the distributions of internal climates such as air temperature, humidity, dust, ammonia gas, and air velocity were systematically measured at a mechanically ventilated broiler houses during summer season, with local weather data. The analysis was focused on the suitability, stability, and uniformity of internal climate, resulting in serious stress on chickens and decrease of productivity In the mechanically ventilated broiler house, the difference between measured and recommended air temperatures(suitability) was 10.4C in maximum during the summer time. The difference of air temperature in the house between day and night was $8.7^{\circ}C$ in maximum. And maximal hourly range of internal air temperature at 0.4m height from the floor was $3.7^{\circ}C$ suggesting it maintained thermal uniformity in the broiler house. The $NH_3$ and dust concentrations were pretty low because ventilation was fully performed. The air speed at chicken location was measured 2.2m/s and 1.7m/s, respectively without and with chicken existence.

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IPC Multi-label Classification based on Functional Characteristics of Fields in Patent Documents (특허문서 필드의 기능적 특성을 활용한 IPC 다중 레이블 분류)

  • Lim, Sora;Kwon, YongJin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2017
  • Recently, with the advent of knowledge based society where information and knowledge make values, patents which are the representative form of intellectual property have become important, and the number of the patents follows growing trends. Thus, it needs to classify the patents depending on the technological topic of the invention appropriately in order to use a vast amount of the patent information effectively. IPC (International Patent Classification) is widely used for this situation. Researches about IPC automatic classification have been studied using data mining and machine learning algorithms to improve current IPC classification task which categorizes patent documents by hand. However, most of the previous researches have focused on applying various existing machine learning methods to the patent documents rather than considering on the characteristics of the data or the structure of patent documents. In this paper, therefore, we propose to use two structural fields, technical field and background, considered as having impacts on the patent classification, where the two field are selected by applying of the characteristics of patent documents and the role of the structural fields. We also construct multi-label classification model to reflect what a patent document could have multiple IPCs. Furthermore, we propose a method to classify patent documents at the IPC subclass level comprised of 630 categories so that we investigate the possibility of applying the IPC multi-label classification model into the real field. The effect of structural fields of patent documents are examined using 564,793 registered patents in Korea, and 87.2% precision is obtained in the case of using title, abstract, claims, technical field and background. From this sequence, we verify that the technical field and background have an important role in improving the precision of IPC multi-label classification in IPC subclass level.

Gene Expression Profiling by RNA Sequencing in Mature/Immature Oocytes of Chicken (닭의 성숙/미성숙란에서 RNA Sequencing을 이용한 유전자 발현 양상 고찰)

  • Kang, Kyung-Soo;Jang, Hyun-Jun;Park, Mi Na;Choi, Jung-Woo;Chung, Won-Hyong;Heo, Kang-Nyeong;Choe, Chang-Yong;Kim, Young-Joo;Lee, Si-Woo;Cho, Eun-Seok;Kim, Namshin;Kim, Tae-Hun;Han, Jae-Yong;Lee, Kyung-Tai
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2014
  • Chicken eggs undergo various physiological changes during egg maturation. To study genes associated with the egg maturation in pre-ovulation (immature) and post-ovulation (mature), we compared gene expression patterns between in the immature egg and mature egg using RNA sequencing data. Mature and immature eggs were obtained from a Heuksaek Jaerae-jong of Korean native chicken. Total RNAs obtained from the eggs were sequenced by Illumina HiSeq 2000 platform, and the generated sequence reads were mapped to Galgal4 reference sequence assembly using Tuxedo Protocol. From the comparison of the RNA sequencing data, 315 genes were differentially expressed between mature and immature eggs, and 46 genes were only detected in immature egg. Further gene ontology (GO) analysis was performed for the differentially expressed genes using DAVID, showing that 29 and 28 GO terms were independently clustered from mature and immature, respectively. From those clustered GO terms, genes related to germ cell development, sex differentiation and defense response to bacterium were mainly expressed in the immature egg, while genes related to regulation of apoptosis, steroid metabolic process and lipid homeostasis were mainly detected in the mature egg. Our results could contribute to understand egg maturation before and after ovulation, and develop genetic markers for improving egg quality and productivity.

Study on Overcoming Interference Factor by Automatic Synthesizer in Endotoxin Test (내독소 검사에서 자동합성장치에 따른 간섭요인 극복에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong Il;Kim, Si Hwal;Chi, Yong Gi;Seok, Jae Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.3-6
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : Samsung medical ceter shall find a cause of the interference factor and suggest a solution for it. Materials and Methods : A sample of $^{18}F$-FDG, radioactive pharmaceuticals produced by TRACERlab MX and FASTlab synthesizer. Gel-clot method uses Positive control tube and single test tube. Kinetic chromogenic method uses ENDOSAFE-PTS produced by Charles River. Results : According to Gel clot method of Endotoxin Tests at FASTlab, both turbidity and viscosity increased at 40-fold dilution and Gel clot was detected. In case of TRACERlab MX, Gel clot was detected in most of samples but intermittently not in a few of them. When using ENDOSAFE-PTS, sample CV (Coefficient of Variation) of FASTlab is 0% at all dilution rates whereas spike CV is 0% at 1-fold dilution, 0~35% at 10-fold, 3.6~12.9% at 20-fold, 5.2~7.1% at 30-fold, 1.1~17.4% at 40-fold, spike recovery; 0% at one-fold, 25 ~ 58% at 10-fold, 50 ~ 86% at 20-fold, 70~92% at 30-fold, and 75~120% at 40-fold. Sample CV of TRACERlab MX, is 0% at all dilution rates whereas spike CV is 1.4~4.8% at one-fold dilution, 0.6~19.9% at 10-fold, spike recovery; 35~72% at one-fold dilution and 77~107% at 10-fold. Conclusion : Gel clot does not seem to occur probably to H3PO4 which engages in bonding with Mg2+ion contributing gelation inside PCT. Dilution which is identical to reducing the amount of H3PO4, could remove interfering effects accordingly. Spike recovery was obtained within 70~150% - recommended values of supplier - at 40-fold dilution even in kinetic chromogenic method.

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Design Evaluation Model Based on Consumer Values: Three-step Approach from Product Attributes, Perceived Attributes, to Consumer Values (소비자 가치기반 디자인 평가 모형: 제품 속성, 인지 속성, 소비자 가치의 3단계 접근)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.57-76
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    • 2017
  • Recently, consumer needs are diversifying as information technologies are evolving rapidly. A lot of IT devices such as smart phones and tablet PCs are launching following the trend of information technology. While IT devices focused on the technical advance and improvement a few years ago, the situation is changed now. There is no difference in functional aspects, so companies are trying to differentiate IT devices in terms of appearance design. Consumers also consider design as being a more important factor in the decision-making of smart phones. Smart phones have become a fashion items, revealing consumers' own characteristics and personality. As the design and appearance of the smartphone become important things, it is necessary to examine consumer values from the design and appearance of IT devices. Furthermore, it is crucial to clarify the mechanisms of consumers' design evaluation and develop the design evaluation model based on the mechanism. Since the influence of design gets continuously strong, various and many studies related to design were carried out. These studies can classify three main streams. The first stream focuses on the role of design from the perspective of marketing and communication. The second one is the studies to find out an effective and appealing design from the perspective of industrial design. The last one is to examine the consumer values created by a product design, which means consumers' perception or feeling when they look and feel it. These numerous studies somewhat have dealt with consumer values, but they do not include product attributes, or do not cover the whole process and mechanism from product attributes to consumer values. In this study, we try to develop the holistic design evaluation model based on consumer values based on three-step approach from product attributes, perceived attributes, to consumer values. Product attributes means the real and physical characteristics each smart phone has. They consist of bezel, length, width, thickness, weight and curvature. Perceived attributes are derived from consumers' perception on product attributes. We consider perceived size of device, perceived size of display, perceived thickness, perceived weight, perceived bezel (top - bottom / left - right side), perceived curvature of edge, perceived curvature of back side, gap of each part, perceived gloss and perceived screen ratio. They are factorized into six clusters named as 'Size,' 'Slimness,' 'No-Frame,' 'Roundness,' 'Screen Ratio,' and 'Looseness.' We conducted qualitative research to find out consumer values, which are categorized into two: look and feel values. We identified the values named as 'Silhouette,' 'Neatness,' 'Attractiveness,' 'Polishing,' 'Innovativeness,' 'Professionalism,' 'Intellectualness,' 'Individuality,' and 'Distinctiveness' in terms of look values. Also, we identifies 'Stability,' 'Comfortableness,' 'Grip,' 'Solidity,' 'Non-fragility,' and 'Smoothness' in terms of feel values. They are factorized into five key values: 'Sleek Value,' 'Professional Value,' 'Unique Value,' 'Comfortable Value,' and 'Solid Value.' Finally, we developed the holistic design evaluation model by analyzing each relationship from product attributes, perceived attributes, to consumer values. This study has several theoretical and practical contributions. First, we found consumer values in terms of design evaluation and implicit chain relationship from the objective and physical characteristics to the subjective and mental evaluation. That is, the model explains the mechanism of design evaluation in consumer minds. Second, we suggest a general design evaluation process from product attributes, perceived attributes to consumer values. It is an adaptable methodology not only smart phone but also other IT products. Practically, this model can support the decision-making when companies initiative new product development. It can help product designers focus on their capacities with limited resources. Moreover, if its model combined with machine learning collecting consumers' purchasing data, most preferred values, sales data, etc., it will be able to evolve intelligent design decision support system.

A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.

Verification of accuracy detection of the cows estrus using biometric information measuring device (생체정보 측정장치를 활용한 젖소 발정탐지의 정확도 검증)

  • Yang, Ka-Young;Woo, Sae-Mee;Kwon, Kyeong-Seok;Choi, Hee-Chul;Jeon, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jun-Yeob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.652-657
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    • 2018
  • Breeding control in a farm is a very important factor affecting milk productivity. Breeding management is important for the early detection of estrus, and reliable, automatic, more accurate, and faster monitoring of the timing of dairy cows is essential for farmers. This study measured the accuracy of estrus using the estrus indications, changes in activities, rumination activities, ruminal temperature, and pH. The biomedical information device S1 used in this study provided an estrus notice using the rumen temperature, pH, cow activities, and number of drinking estimations, which were inserted in the rumen through the oral route. The S2 device was used in the estrus notice for the rumen activities and cow activities. The data collected on the instrument were collected at intervals of 2 hours per day at the reference days (RD: -7~-3, +7~+ 3) +2), 7 days before insemination, and 7 days after insemination. The activities of the S1 device used in this paper increased with increasing number of insemination days (-1: $12.5{\pm}1.03/day$; 0: $12.9{\pm}1.73/day$) compared to the reference day (RD: $10.2{\pm}1.0/day$). The activities of the S2 device was also found to increase from the reference day to the insemination day (0: $63.0{\pm}3.66$) compared to the reference day (RD: $40.3{\pm}2.68$). The number of daily drinks in S1 decreased from the reference day (RD: $5.9{\pm}0.89/day$) to before the insemination day (-2: $5.6{\pm}0.98$; -1: $5.7{\pm}0.96$); +2: $6.0{\pm}0.73$). The number of daily drinks on the insemination day (0: $6.3{\pm}0.86$; +2: $6.0{\pm}0.73$) was similar to the reference day. The number of daily rumination in S2 decreased from the reference day (RD: $493.8{\pm}10.92$) to the insemination day (-1: $390.2{\pm}13.36$; 0: $354.1{\pm}16.71$).

Exploratory Study on the Phenomena of Entrepreneurship Education in Food and Agriculture Sectors Based on the Grounded Theory Approach (근거이론접근법에 기반한 농식품분야 창업교육현상에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Seol, Byung Moon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the entrepreneurship education phenomena for agri-food entrepreneurs whose main business is the production of agricultural products and the sale of processed products, using the qualitative study Strauss & Corbin(1998)'s evidence theory approach. From the entrepreneur's point of view, I would like to summarize the phenomena that appear in education, and to prepare a theoretical basis for explaining the phenomena. The importance of entrepreneurship education is emphasized to cultivate the ability to develop and provide products tailored to customers. The necessity of education leads to an increase in demand according to the situational awareness of the founders, and the quantitative increase in entrepreneurship education in the agri-food sector is a clear trend. Inevitably, the need for various discussions on systematic and effective entrepreneurship education is raised. For the study, an interview was conducted with preliminary or entrepreneur who have experienced entrepreneurship education in the agri-food sector. As a research method, I use Strauss & Corbin(1998)'s approach and analyze qualitative data using QSR's NVIVO 12 program. Through this study, it was found that contextual and systematic entrepreneurship education in the agri-food sector has the effect of strengthening competitiveness and strengthening sales. There is a need for follow-up management of trainees. Strengthening the competitiveness of start-ups is based on training professional manpower through education and linking regions with cities. Strengthening sales is based on product planning and market development. This study explores entrepreneurship education in the agri-food sector, which has not been actively conducted in the past. Exploratory analysis on the experiences of the founders of agri-food sector as education demanders has an important meaning for understanding the phenomenon of start-up education.