• Title/Summary/Keyword: 데이터 기반 의사결정

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Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy using Simulated Annealing-based Random Fores (시뮬레이티드 어니일링 기반의 랜덤 포레스트를 이용한 기업부도예측)

  • Park, Hoyeon;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 2018
  • Predicting a company's financial bankruptcy is traditionally one of the most crucial forecasting problems in business analytics. In previous studies, prediction models have been proposed by applying or combining statistical and machine learning-based techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent prediction model based on the simulated annealing which is one of the well-known optimization techniques. The simulated annealing is known to have comparable optimization performance to the genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, since there has been little research on the prediction and classification of business decision-making problems using the simulated annealing, it is meaningful to confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in business analytics. In this study, we use the combined model of simulated annealing and machine learning to select the input features of the bankruptcy prediction model. Typical types of combining optimization and machine learning techniques are feature selection, feature weighting, and instance selection. This study proposes a combining model for feature selection, which has been studied the most. In order to confirm the superiority of the proposed model in this study, we apply the real-world financial data of the Korean companies and analyze the results. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the naïve model. Notably, the performance is significantly improved as compared with the traditional decision tree, random forests, artificial neural network, SVM, and logistic regression analysis.

A System Development of Quantity Data Type Analysis for BIM based Automation of Estimation Framework (BIM기반 견적자동화 체계구축을 위한 물량 데이터 유형 분석 체계 개발)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon;Shin, Tae-Hong;Kim, Seong-Ah;Kang, Myung-ku;Chin, Sang-Yoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.744-747
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    • 2008
  • Quantity information focused on a design drawing plays a critical role in a decision making related to cost for project participants during project life cycles. Related participants absolutely depend on quantity take-off working which produces the quantity information by hand, and then a worker's mistake often causes many errors. The difference of quantity by the know-how of the person in charge of the estimation also occurs. In addition, the worker passes through the whole quantity take-off processes again in case of re-working for quantity take-off produced by a change order. The requirements about the automated estimation increase because of the needs for the accurate quantity take-off and dealing with the change order and recently, the studies about the automated estimation working process based on 34 cad model from 3d cad modeler are attempted in various viewpoints. However, the existing studies reach the limits such as common quantity data type framework for getting Quantity information. Focused on a certain 34 cad modeler and BIM based automation of estimation using it Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the a series of system which can extract, analyze, and verify Quantity Data Type in modeler to automate quantity take-off originated from various 3d cad modelers as a foundation study for BIM based automation of estimation framework.

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A Frequency Allocation Method for Cognitive Radio Using the Fuzzy Set Theory (퍼지 집합 이론을 활용한 무선인지 주파수 할당 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Moon-Ho;Lee, Jong-Chan
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.9B
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    • pp.745-750
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    • 2008
  • In a cognitive radio based system, quality of service (QoS) for the secondary user must be maintained as much as possible even while that of the primary user is protected all he time. In particular, switching wireless links for the secondary user during the transmission of multimedia data causes delay and information loss, and QoS degradations occur inevitably. The efficient resource management scheme is necessary to support the seamless multimedia service to the secondary user. This paper proposes a novel frequency selection method based on Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), in which uncertain parameters such as received signal strength, cell load, data rate, and available bandwidth are considered during the decision process for the frequency selection with the fuzzy set theory. Through simulation, we show that our proposed frequency selection method provides a better performance than the conventional methods which consider the received signal strength only.

Generative Adversarial Network Model for Generating Yard Stowage Situation in Container Terminal (컨테이너 터미널의 야드 장치 상태 생성을 위한 생성적 적대 신경망 모형)

  • Jae-Young Shin;Yeong-Il Kim;Hyun-Jun Cho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.383-384
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    • 2022
  • Following the development of technologies such as digital twin, IoT, and AI after the 4th industrial revolution, decision-making problems are being solved based on high-dimensional data analysis. This has recently been applied to the port logistics sector, and a number of studies on big data analysis, deep learning predictions, and simulations have been conducted on container terminals to improve port productivity. These high-dimensional data analysis techniques generally require a large number of data. However, the global port environment has changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It is not appropriate to apply data before the COVID-19 outbreak to the current port environment, and the data after the outbreak was not sufficiently collected to apply it to data analysis such as deep learning. Therefore, this study intends to present a port data augmentation method for data analysis as one of these problem-solving methods. To this end, we generate the container stowage situation of the yard through a generative adversarial neural network model in terms of container terminal operation, and verify similarity through statistical distribution verification between real and augmented data.

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Evolution of Aviation Safety Regulations to cope with the concept of data-driven rulemaking - Safety Management System & Fatigue Risk Management System

  • Lee, Gun-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.345-366
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    • 2018
  • Article 37 of the International Convention on Civil Aviation requires that rules should be adopted to keep in compliance with international standards and recommended practices established by ICAO. As SARPs are revised annually, each ICAO Member State needs to reflect the new content in its national aviation Acts in a timely manner. In recent years, data-driven international standards have been developed because of the important roles of aviation safety data and information-based legislation in accident prevention based on human factors. The Safety Management System and crew Fatigue Risk Management Systems were reviewed as examples of the result of data-driven rulemaking. The safety management system was adopted in 2013 with the introduction of Annex 19 and Chapter 5 of the relevant manual describes safety data collection and analysis systems. Through analysis of safety data and information, decision makers can make informed data-driven decisions. The Republic of Korea introduced Safety Management System in accordance with Article 58 of the Aviation Safety Act for all airlines, maintenance companies, and airport corporations. To support the SMS, both mandatory reporting and voluntary safety reporting systems need to be in place. Up until now, the standard of administrative penal dispensation for violations of the safety management system has been very weak. Various regulations have been developed and implemented in the United States and Europe for the proper legislation of the safety management system. In the wake of the crash of the Colgan aircraft, the US Aviation Safety Committee recommended the US Federal Aviation Administration to establish a system that can identify and manage pilot fatigue hazards. In 2010, a notice of proposed rulemaking was issued by the Federal Aviation Administration and in 2011, the final rule was passed. The legislation was applied to help differentiate risk based on flight according to factors such as the pilot's duty starting time, the availability of the auxiliary crew, and the class of the rest facility. Numerous amounts data and information were analyzed during the rulemaking process, and reflected in the resultant regulations. A cost-benefit analysis, based on the data of the previous 10 year period, was conducted before the final legislation was reached and it was concluded that the cost benefits are positive. The Republic of Korea also currently has a clause on aviation safety legislation related to crew fatigue risk, where an airline can choose either to conform to the traditional flight time limitation standard or fatigue risk management system. In the United States, specifically for the purpose of data-driven rulemaking, the Airline Rulemaking Committee was formed, and operates in this capacity. Considering the advantageous results of the ARC in the US, and the D4S in Europe, this is a system that should definitely be introduced in Korea as well. A cost-benefit analysis is necessary, and can serve to strengthen the resulting legislation. In order to improve the effectiveness of data-based legislation, it is necessary to have reinforcement of experts and through them prepare a more detailed checklist of relevant variables.

A study on the aspect-based sentiment analysis of multilingual customer reviews (다국어 사용자 후기에 대한 속성기반 감성분석 연구)

  • Sungyoung Ji;Siyoon Lee;Daewoo Choi;Kee-Hoon Kang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.515-528
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    • 2023
  • With the growth of the e-commerce market, consumers increasingly rely on user reviews to make purchasing decisions. Consequently, researchers are actively conducting studies to effectively analyze these reviews. Among the various methods of sentiment analysis, the aspect-based sentiment analysis approach, which examines user reviews from multiple angles rather than solely relying on simple positive or negative sentiments, is gaining widespread attention. Among the various methodologies for aspect-based sentiment analysis, there is an analysis method using a transformer-based model, which is the latest natural language processing technology. In this paper, we conduct an aspect-based sentiment analysis on multilingual user reviews using two real datasets from the latest natural language processing technology model. Specifically, we use restaurant data from the SemEval 2016 public dataset and multilingual user review data from the cosmetic domain. We compare the performance of transformer-based models for aspect-based sentiment analysis and apply various methodologies to improve their performance. Models using multilingual data are expected to be highly useful in that they can analyze multiple languages in one model without building separate models for each language.

A Study on the Analysis of Current Status and Improvements of the Children and Youth Services in the Library based on Bigdata: - A Case Study of National Library of Korea, Sejong - (빅데이터 기반 도서관 어린이청소년서비스 현황분석 및 개선방안 - 국립세종도서관을 중심으로 -)

  • Baek, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Tae-Young;Yang, Dongmin;Oh, Hyo-Jung
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.295-328
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to analyze circulation status of children's material and participation in culture program based on the bigdata to identify the current status of children and youth services and suggest ways to improve the services. The logs to be analyzed consist of children's material information, circulation count information, circulation user information registered at the National Library of Korea, Sejong. The children's material information logs contain 77,297 data, circulation count information logs contain 4,160,484 data, circulation user information logs contain 189,060 data The current status analysis of children and youth services was conducted in various ways, including analysis of circulation status and culture program by subject, age, and residential area. Based on analysis results, improvement methods of children and youth services were proposed in terms of books, users and residences. This study analyze empirically current status of children and youth services based on bigdata logs, and it has significance for being different form proceeding researches. We expect this study to be used as an empirical basis for the establishment of operational strategies in the future.

An Analysis on Determinants of the Capesize Freight Rate and Forecasting Models (케이프선 시장 운임의 결정요인 및 운임예측 모형 분석)

  • Lim, Sang-Seop;Yun, Hee-Sung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.539-545
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, research on shipping market forecasting with the employment of non-linear AI models has attracted significant interest. In previous studies, input variables were selected with reference to past papers or by relying on the intuitions of the researchers. This paper attempts to address this issue by applying the stepwise regression model and the random forest model to the Cape-size bulk carrier market. The Cape market was selected due to the simplicity of its supply and demand structure. The preliminary selection of the determinants resulted in 16 variables. In the next stage, 8 features from the stepwise regression model and 10 features from the random forest model were screened as important determinants. The chosen variables were used to test both models. Based on the analysis of the models, it was observed that the random forest model outperforms the stepwise regression model. This research is significant because it provides a scientific basis which can be used to find the determinants in shipping market forecasting, and utilize a machine-learning model in the process. The results of this research can be used to enhance the decisions of chartering desks by offering a guideline for market analysis.

Understanding Customer Purchasing Behavior in E-Commerce using Explainable Artificial Intelligence Techniques (XAI 기법을 이용한 전자상거래의 고객 구매 행동 이해)

  • Lee, Jaejun;Jeong, Ii Tae;Lim, Do Hyun;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2021.07a
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    • pp.387-390
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    • 2021
  • 최근 전자 상거래 시장이 급격한 성장을 이루면서 고객들의 급변하는 니즈를 파악하는 것이 기업들의 수익에 직결되는 요소로 인식되고 있다. 이에 기업들은 고객들의 니즈를 신속하고 정확하게 파악하기 위해, 기축적된 고객 관련 각종 데이터를 활용하려는 시도를 강화하고 있다. 기존 시도들은 주로 구매 행동 예측에 중점을 두었으나 고객 행동의 전후 과정을 해석하는데 있어 어려움이 존재했다. 본 연구에서는 고객이 구매한 상품을 확정 또는 환불하는 행동을 취할 때 해당 행동이 발생하는데 있어 어떤 요소들이 작용하였는지를 파악하고, 어떤 고객이 환불할 지를 예측하는 예측 모형을 새롭게 제시한다. 예측 모형 구현에는 트리 기반 앙상블 방법을 사용해 예측력을 높인 XGBoost 기법을 적용하였으며, 고객 의도에 영향을 미치는 요소들을 파악하기 위하여 대표적인 설명가능한 인공지능(XAI) 기법 중 하나인 SHAP 기법을 적용하였다. 이를 통해 특정 고객 행동에 대한 각 요인들의 전반적인 영향 뿐만 아니라, 각 개별 고객에 대해서도 어떤 요소가 환불결정에 영향을 미쳤는지 파악할 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기업은 고객 개개인의 의사 결정에 영향을 미치는 요소를 파악하여 개인화 마케팅에 사용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Development of Route Selecting System based on GIS for Prior Environmental Review using AHP (AHP 기법을 활용한 GIS기반의 사전환경성검토 노선선정시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Sang-Seok;Jang, Yong-Gu;Yang, Seung-Tae;Kang, In-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.152-163
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    • 2007
  • The on-going pre-environmental investigation at present is performed by separate numerical analysis of each provision which makes integrated pre-environmental investigation is difficult. The application of numerical data is insufficient, which results to the deterioration of environmental investigation result's objectivity. A lot of time and money is required for the investigation. In this study, the spacial analysis function of GIS was applied on the 8 pre-environmental investigation factors. Pre-environmental investigation GIS DMS(Decision Making System) using AHP was constructed to make integrated investigation possible through the use of investigation results for each factor. Through the use of the developed pre-environmental investigation GIS DMS and the pre-constructed GIS data, the objectivity of environmental investigation is sufficient and time and cost are reduced. Therefore, this system can be used for pre-environmental investigation during route selection in the initial stages of road construction. Through the numerical and visual data obtained from the system developed in this paper, it is easier to gain the approval of the public. Furthermore, environmental problems due to road construction can be investigated with less time and money during the initial stages of road construction.

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