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Case studies of flood forecasting and forecast lead time (홍수특보 및 선행예보시간에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Oh, Jungsun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.347-347
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    • 2021
  • 국내 호우 및 태풍으로 인한 홍수피해는 전체 자연재해 피해액 중 90%에 달할 정도로 심각하다. 홍수 피해는 국내의 기후적 특성으로 인해 매년 반복될 뿐만 아니라 최근엔 기후변화로 인해 강우 패턴이 변함에 따라 홍수 대응에 대한 새로운 해결책이 요구되는 상황이다. 이러한 니즈에 맞춰 국내의 홍수 관리 기술 및 제도도 빠르게 발전해왔다. 기술적으로는 수문 관측 밀도, 자료의 축적, 전송, 분석기법 등이 상당한 수준에 이르고 있다. 다만, 단기 강우 예측, 고도화된 홍수해석모형, GIS와의 연계 등이 홍수 예경보 시스템과 실무에 직접적으로 활용되기 위해서는 아직 개발기술에 대한 실용화 연구 및 적용검증이 필요하다. 뿐만 아니라, 제도적으로도 「수자원의 조사·계획 및 관리에 관한 법률 및 시행규칙」을 통해 하천구역 및 그 배후지역에서 홍수로 인명과 재산에 대한 피해가 예상될 경우 홍수 예경보를 실시하도록 하고 있다. 그러나 최근 도달시간이 짧아 홍수선행예보시간이 확보되지 못하는 경우 등이 발생하며 홍수특보 기준에 대한 보완의 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 충분한 선행예보시간 확보 및 신속한 홍수대응을 위하여 홍수발생 및 예경보 발령 사례를 분석하고자 한다. 현재 홍수특보 발령 기준은 홍수위험정도에 따라 홍수주의보 또는 홍수경보로 구분하여 발령하도록 하고 있다. 홍수위험정도의 기준은 일반적으로 수위 또는 유량을 기준으로 하고 있으며, 이를 기준수위라고 정의하여 관리하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 홍수특보지점별 사례를 통해 지점의 지형적 특성, 기준수위, 기준수위에 도달시간을 종합적으로 분석하였다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 기존의 홍수특보를 효과적으로 운영하고 홍수피해를 저감하기 위해 고려해야 할 요소를 제시하였다.

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The Experimental Study of Distribution Life-Force Impact on Piles and Landing Pier (잔교식 안벽의 상부와 Pile에 작용하는 파압분포에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Kil;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Kim, Woo-Seang;Park, Byung-Yul;Kang, Deok-Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.552-556
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    • 2006
  • 항만건설에 있어서 항만의 내부시설 중에서 무엇보다도 가장 중요한 시설물은 선박을 안전하게 접안시켜 하역할 수 있는 안벽시설물이다. 안벽구조 형식의 결정은 항만의 이용목적 등에 따라서 달라지지만 항만의 건설입지조건 등에 의해서도 달라진다. 안벽구조형식 중에서 잔교 식 안벽은 무엇보다도 단기간에 건설이 용이하여 지금까지 각국에서 널리 사용되어 왔고 장래에도 이용도가 증가되리라 생각한다. 최근에는 해안선을 이용한 위락시설이 건설되면서 잔교 식 안벽구조물을 설치하여 보조시설물로 이용하는 경우가 많다. 과거에 설계되어 잔교를 설계할 경우는 일반적으로 항내의 정온이 잘 유지되는 경우에 대해서 설치하는 경우가 많기 때문에 파랑에 의한 반사율과 잔교 상부에 작용하는 양압력을 고려해야할 필요성이 거의 없었다. 그러나 최근에는 태풍이 내습할 경우 기존의 항내로 높은 파랑이 침입하는 경우가 발생하고 있어 항내에서도 잔교의 파괴로 인한 자연재해가 대형화되는 경우가 발생하고 있다. 또, 처음부터 안벽을 설계할 때에 대형화의 잔교 식 안벽구조물을 설치하는 경우도 있다. 이런 잔교 식 안벽 구조물을 잔교의 상부 판에 작용하는 양압력 분포와 잔교 전면의 반사율 등이 구조물의 유지관리 등에 미치는 영향이 매우 크기 때문에 반사율 검토와 양압력을 고려한 설계가 필요하다. 본연구의 대상은 일정 해역에 잔교 식 안벽을 설계하고자 할때 최적의 안벽 설계가 될 수 있도록 수리모형실험을 실시하여 구조물의 안전과 항내정온에 기초가 되는 자료를 도출하고자 하였다. 따라서 본 수리모형실험으로 인한 연구는 잔교 식 안벽에 대한 반사율과 상부에 작용하는 양압력, 잔교말뚝(pile)에 작용하는 수평압력을 검토하여 잔교 식 안벽 설계에 기초자료를 제공하고자 한다. 혈청을 이용한 동결보존을 대체할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.지에 더해주면 세포의 증식이 개선될 것이다. 그래서 몇 가지 첨가물을 이용해 세포의 증식력에 변화가 나타나는지 알아보았다. 첨가물을 이용한 실험에서 IGF-I의 경우 장기간 배양에서 세포의 수를 안정적으로 유지하고 계대 횟수를 증가시키는 효과를 보였다. 이는 IGF-I이 어느정도 세포의 증식을 유지시켜주는 역할을 하기 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 무혈청 배지에서 비적응 CHO 세포의 계대 배양에 한계가 있는 것은 세포주기가 멈추기 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 세포주기가 멈추는 growth factor와 같이 세포의 증식을 지속적으로 유도할 수 있는 물질이 무혈청 배지에서는 부족하기 때문인 것으로 생각되고, IGF-I과 같은 첨가물을 통해 극복할 수 있는 문제라고 여겨진다.관점과 주거교육가치관 요소와의 관계를 알아본 결과, 전통적 관점은 주거교육가치관 요소 중 오직 주거관리적 요소와 관계가 있었으나 그 정도는 낮으며 실천적 관점과 구조적 관점은 주거가치관의 각 요소에 따라 약간 다르기는 했으나 주로 보통의 관계를 보였다.군 순으로 높게 관찰되었다. 이상의 결과를 종합할 때, 임상에서 니켈-티타늄 합금 와이어에 굴곡을 부여하기 위해 열처리하는 경우 초탄성 특성은 유지될 수 있으나, 부하-변위 곡선의 상방 증가가 나타나므로, 와이어에 의한 교정력이 증가될 수 있음에 유의하여야 한다. $day^{-1}$인 인공습지), scenario 2(면적 4.2ha인 저류지)가 각각 연평균 6.9%, 4.8%, 7.1%의 감소를 보였다. TN은 4.7%, 3.4%, 13.4%의 삭감율을 나타내었으며, TP는 5.6%, 3.9%, 7.3%의 삭감율을 나타내었다. 본 연구에서는

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Analysis of Technology Convergence Structure Using technology Input-output Analysis: Case of Convergence R&D Development Project for Small and Medium Businesses (기술연관분석을 활용한 기술융합구조 분석: 중소기업 융·복합기술개발사업 사례)

  • Lee, Kwang-Min;Kim, Da-Woon;Hong, Jae-Bum
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-35
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed convergence status among input technologies used in technology development with Technology I-O analysis. It was another version of industry input-output analysis which is used in technology planning. This case is an analysis of association between technology an product. The subjects of analysis were 401 tasks that applied to '2012 Convergence Technology Development Project for Small and Medium Businesses' promoted by Korea Technology & Information Promotion Agency for Small and Medium Enterprises. The process of analysis is as followed. First step, we made a matrix table as an input of technology input-output analysis. Input was defined by technology and output was defined by the product. Input technology was defined in a 3-digit code under National Science Technology Classification and output products were defined in a 5-digit under National Standard Industry Code. Second, the Spillover ratio among technologies were calculated and was used to make a picture of technology linkage. As a result of analysis, technology spillover of embedded S/W was the highest in IT convergence, mold product in ET convergence, and functional cosmetics development technology in BT convergence. In general, IT convergence had many element technologies with high technology spillover, and ET had a small number of element technologies with high technology spillover. Therefore, investment effect of element technology is expected to be large if investment on element technologies with high technology spillover is important for vitalizing convergence.

The implementation of sign design simulation software (사인디자인 제작 체험 시뮬레이션 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Paik, Jin-Kyung;Lee, Kyung-Mi;Yeoun, Myeong-Heum
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.19 no.2 s.64
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2006
  • Sign is one of the important factors in city and national image formation, thus requires high level of quality. However, domestic sign emphasize only the sense of attention that leads to big sized signs, thus often results in a poor coordination with the surrounding space. This situation requires employees in sign business want to learn specialized knowledge about design field. Based on these circumstances, we propose sign design software to employees in sign business field as an aid tool that can help to develop good signs in terms of functionality as well as harmony of design. Thus, in this investigation, sign simulation software application case that can design sign and apply this sign to the actual application site is presented. In order to develop this software, literature survey and preliminary studies were performed to analyze the preparation process and environment, and designed sign design element and software elements, user interrace, and finally Java software were utilized. This developed software can be used as a textbook in sign design related departments in schools, and hopefully to enhance the social recognition of sign as well as academic interest.

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A basic research on the number of elementary school students for the proper school size policy in Korea - Focusing on small elementary school in Seoul - (우리나라 적정규모학교 정책 수립을 위한 기초 조사 연구 - 서울시 소규모 초등학교를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Yong-Gi
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2019
  • This study investigated and analyzed the rise and fall trend of enrolled students during the recent 30 years with the subject of 607 elementary schools in 11 Education Support Centers (25 Gu-districts) in Seoul to provide the basic data related to establishing the school accommodation plan of the Seoul Education Office. In particular, the study focuses on the 53 small schools in Seoul and examines whether a correlation exists between the 8 factors of the school accommodation plan and the increasing and decreasing of enrolled student numbers. First, 'school establishment policy' should not be a short-term therapy but a long-term and predictable sustainable policy. Second, among the eight factors, there seems to be a very high correlation between the 'aged low-rise house districts' and 'spatially isolated areas'. Third, 'close-packed apartment complexes' and 'rental apartment complexes' are also highly correlated. Fourth, the planning factors such as 'joint school districts, the reconstruction of apartment complexes and the connection to commercial districts' seem to be correlated to some degree. Therefore, further studies are needed to overcome these problems.

A Case Study on Building a System Dynamics Model for Strategic Knowledge Management (전략적 지식경영을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 구축 사례 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Yeon, Seung-Jun;Kim, Dong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Wook
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2005
  • IT companies make a lot of effort to share and utilize the experiences of their members and transform them into organizational knowledge as a competitive core. However they face a dilemma in that they have to spend time and financial resources to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying at field-work for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper tries to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although this model has to be further replenished, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers, especially of knowledge-intensive organizations.

Serum Lipid Profiles after Abstinence in Korean Male Patients With Alcohol Dependence (남성 알코올 의존 환자들에서 금주 치료 후의 혈청 지질 농도 변화)

  • Lee, Seoung-Ho;Park, Woong-Sub
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 2008
  • Objectives : The treatment of alcohol dependence requires maintaining abstinence. However, some previous studies have suggested that the abstinence may increase the cardiovascular risk in patients with alcohol dependence. The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of alcohol abstinence on lipid profile in Korean male patients with alcohol dependence. Methods : Twenty-eight male patients with alcohol dependence were recruited from a psychiatric unit located at Gangneung Dongin Hospital. Lipid profiles of the patients were compared before and after a month of alcohol abstinence. Results : After abstinence of 1 month, high-density lipoprotein(HDL) cholesterol and triglyceride(TG) level was significantly decreased(p=0.000; p=0.0086, respectively). Low-density lipoprotein(LDL) cholesterol level showed a tendency to increase(p=0.066). Total cholesterol level also showed a tendency to decrease(p=0.074). Conclusions : These results show that acute abstinence of alcohol might paradoxically aggravate dyslipidemia in patients with alcohol dependence. Thus, this study shows that more concern associated with cardiovascular risk is needed during short-term abstinence period.

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Prediction of Divided Traffic Demands Based on Knowledge Discovery at Expressway Toll Plaza (지식발견 기반의 고속도로 영업소 분할 교통수요 예측)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Tak;Yoon, Byoung-Jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2016
  • The tollbooths of a main motorway toll plaza are usually operated proactively responding to the variations of traffic demands of two-type vehicles, i.e. cars and the other (heavy) vehicles, respectively. In this vein, it is one of key elements to forecast accurate traffic volumes for the two vehicle types in advanced tollgate operation. Unfortunately, it is not easy for existing univariate short-term prediction techniques to simultaneously generate the two-vehicle-type traffic demands in literature. These practical and academic backgrounds make it one of attractive research topics in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) forecasting area to forecast the future traffic volumes of the two-type vehicles at an acceptable level of accuracy. In order to address the shortcomings of univariate short-term prediction techniques, a Multiple In-and-Out (MIO) forecasting model to simultaneously generate the two-type traffic volumes is introduced in this article. The MIO model based on a non-parametric approach is devised under the on-line access conditions of large-scale historical data. In a feasible test with actual data, the proposed model outperformed Kalman filtering, one of a widely-used univariate models, in terms of prediction accuracy in spite of multivariate prediction scheme.

An Analysis of the Outflow reduction effect of Bio-retention in Small watershed during Short-term rainfall (단기 강우 시 소규모유역에서 생태저류지의 유출 저감효과 분석)

  • Cheon, Jong-hyeon;Kim, Jae-moon;Jang, Young-su;Shin, Hyun-suk
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.434-442
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    • 2019
  • Low Impact Development(LID) techniques has been attracting attention as a countermeasure to solve frequent flood damage in urban areas. LID is a techniques for returning to the natural hydrological cycle system by infiltrating the runoff from the impervious surface into the soil. The Bio-retention, one of the LID element technology has outflow reduction effect by reserving and infiltrating storm water runoff from watersheds. Recently, a number of studies have been carried out as interest in the reduction of storm water runoff and non-point pollutants in Bio-retention has increased. However, quantitative analysis on the outflow reduction of Bio-retention applied to small watershed is insufficient. In this study, Bio-retention model was constructed in a small watershed using K-LIDM which is capable of hydrologic analysis. When the storage capacity was increased or dividing the Bio-retention and watershed, the outflow reduction effect was 20% according to the storage capacity increase and 5~15% in the distributed Bio-retention system. The results of this analysis will be used as the basic data of future Bio-retention research related to watershed characteristics, vegetation type and soil condition.

Development of Heat Demand Forecasting Model using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 이용한 열 수요예측 모델 개발)

  • Seo, Han-Seok;Shin, KwangSup
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2018
  • In order to provide stable district heat supplying service to the certain limited residential area, it is the most important to forecast the short-term future demand more accurately and produce and supply heat in efficient way. However, it is very difficult to develop a universal heat demand forecasting model that can be applied to general situations because the factors affecting the heat consumption are very diverse and the consumption patterns are changed according to individual consumers and regional characteristics. In particular, considering all of the various variables that can affect heat demand does not help improve performance in terms of accuracy and versatility. Therefore, this study aims to develop a demand forecasting model using deep learning based on only limited information that can be acquired in real time. A demand forecasting model was developed by learning the artificial neural network of the Tensorflow using past data consisting only of the outdoor temperature of the area and date as input variables. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing the accuracy of demand predicted with the previous regression model. The proposed heat demand forecasting model in this research showed that it is possible to enhance the accuracy using only limited variables which can be secured in real time. For the demand forecasting in a certain region, the proposed model can be customized by adding some features which can reflect the regional characteristics.